tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post226067394737804874..comments2012-03-24T14:14:04.490-04:00Comments on Productive Outs and Crackerjack: What About Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Church/Santana?Jack Flynnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16809904649660393420noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-2920649017902270852008-07-09T07:45:00.000-04:002008-07-09T07:45:00.000-04:00Jack is used to looking foolish.Jack is used to looking foolish.TWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619620902215995000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-11999880083265501882008-07-08T20:04:00.000-04:002008-07-08T20:04:00.000-04:00Nice argument...however, there are also two sides ...Nice argument...however, there are also two sides to this coin. While Wright's production against Lefties has been absurdly high, his production against righties has been abnormally low. (I believe he is a career .300 hitter against righties.) There is every reason to believe that his number against both will settle in closer to their long term norms, particularly factoring in Wright's baffling consistency and the fact that the process is already underway. (His numbers against lefties are falling slightly and his numbers against righties are rising briskly.)<BR/><BR/>Thus, my contention is that Wright's chances of finishing the year with All-Star numbers are high, and since we've seen exactly the same thing last year from him, and he put on an MVP campaign last year with a freakishly torrid 2nd half (he was by far the MVP of the post-All-Star-Game 2007), he's earned the benefit of the doubt, <I>especially</I> from Met fans.<BR/><BR/>It will look foolish, IMO if Wright puts up, say, .314/.410/.550/31HR/133RBI, in a year where he is not elected to the All Star Team.Vain Saintshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07796361846052555305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-29249647247437747412008-07-08T11:20:00.000-04:002008-07-08T11:20:00.000-04:00But I'm not kicking myself and you are. A sign of ...But I'm not kicking myself and you are. A sign of a great manager is one who can take advice from others for the greater good.TWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619620902215995000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-60786295657412329092008-07-08T09:02:00.000-04:002008-07-08T09:02:00.000-04:00Brian: I didn't do a good job of fully explaining ...Brian: I didn't do a good job of fully explaining my point. Their overall numbers may look superficially similar, but Wright's has been sustained by abnormally high production against left-handers (even for him).<BR/><BR/>There is a stark difference between Ramirez's and Wright's numbers against right-handers this season, one that clearly favors Ramirez. Both players have faced right-handed pitchers in about 75 percent of their plate appearances. Look at the difference in production:<BR/><BR/>Ramirez: .293/.388/.534<BR/>Wright: .249/.337/.442<BR/><BR/>In three out of every four at-bats this season, Ramirez has had an OPS nearly 150 points higher than Wright. That's why it's hard for me to strongly advocate for Wright over Ramirez.<BR/><BR/>I agree that Wright is incredibly consistent and will likely end the season with numbers similar to his previous campaigns. However, this season will be more dependent on production against left-handers than ever before.<BR/><BR/>Tim: You're lucky I'm such a Burrell fan. Otherwise you would've passed on him in the expansion draft and been kicking yourself today. I should've asked for Burrell instead of Abreu in the Harden deal.Jack Flynnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16809904649660393420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-31755054916828611982008-07-08T07:46:00.000-04:002008-07-08T07:46:00.000-04:00Brian, Jack is a self-hating Burrell lover. Burrel...Brian, Jack is a self-hating Burrell lover. Burrell might as well be his daddy.TWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619620902215995000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-23191431735268055102008-07-08T00:23:00.000-04:002008-07-08T00:23:00.000-04:00Wright is now to be punished for being too good ag...Wright is now to be punished for being too good against lefties? That's one I haven't heard before!<BR/>Wright has killed lefties for his entire career, so his current dominance against left-handers should not be seen as flukeish or "artificiial".<BR/><BR/>The entire difference between his MVP year last year and this year's pace is about 15 singles last year turned into outs this year--all against right-handed breaking balls, but whatever. All of his other rates--save stolen bases--are astoundingly similar. As his consistency has been aptly described by Tim Marchman as "freakish", it's a pretty safe bet that he'll up his average to his career norm of about .310. He's already raised it about 16 points just in these last 2 weeks--from .272 on June 23 to .288 today.<BR/><BR/>My point is we've been through this before with DW. He's earned some cred with his fans by now.<BR/><BR/>(BTW talking about freakish consistency)<BR/><BR/>Wright:7/6/2007=.288/.372/.500/16HR<BR/>Wright:7/7/2008=<I>.288</I>/.382/<I>.501/17HR</I><BR/><BR/>Forgive me for sounding like a homer, but come on!Vain Saintshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07796361846052555305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-65901510308188195962008-07-07T20:07:00.000-04:002008-07-07T20:07:00.000-04:00That's not Burrell's fault. RBIs are dependent on ...That's not Burrell's fault. RBIs are dependent on at-bats with runners on base. With Utley driving in guys at the top of the order and Howard making outs or hitting home runs, the fifth spot in the Phillies' lineup is not a good place for driving in runs.Jack Flynnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16809904649660393420noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7094682562158691055.post-87012660968178658802008-07-07T19:46:00.000-04:002008-07-07T19:46:00.000-04:00If you're choosing someone other than Wright out o...If you're choosing someone other than Wright out of that list why not Hart. His numbers are the only ones comparable to Wright's. Burrell's rbi numbers are kind of low for a guy with 21 hrs.TWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04619620902215995000noreply@blogger.com