Productive Outs and Crackerjack

Roster Musings - 12/7/11

2011-12-07T10:23:00.003-05:00

I've been writing a little more at Mack's Mets in the last few weeks and had just posted my thoughts on how the Mets might approach the off-season when three transactions were announced in short order last night. The additions of Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres gives my initial projected 25-man roster a different look from the one I posted there just 24 hours before.

SP- Santana
SP- Dickey
SP- Niese
SP- Pelfrey
SP- Gee

No changes to the starting rotation. If the Mets decide at the last minute to non-tender Mike Pelfrey, they can hold an audition for a fifth starter in Spring Training.

RP- Francisco
RP- Rauch
RP- R. Ramirez
RP- Carrasco
RP- Beato/Parnell
RP- Byrdak/lefty specialist
RP- Herrera/lefty specialist

Carrasco is under contract and supposedly Byrdak is as well, even though I can't seem to find anything confirming that. Regardless, the Mets won't break camp without two lefties in the bullpen so you can pencil in two southpaws among the seven relievers. I think Daniel Ray Herrera will be one of them mostly for PR purposes, since he's the visible return from the Francisco Rodriguez trade and won't cost more than $500K in salary.

I do not understand why a financially strapped team that will struggle to reach 80 wins spends over $10 million on relievers in one night. Francisco (2 years, $12 million) is a perfectly ordinary closer who may be the difference between 80 wins and 82 wins this season. I'm just not sure whether he's going to have a positive or a negative effect. Ramon Ramirez is actually a very solid reliever who should be successful in Queens in 2012. I'm a little concerned about what he'll make in arbitration, but it can't be worse than the $3.5 million Rauch will be making in 2012. He hasn't been the same since being overworked by Washington in 2006 and 2007 and has dealt with injury issues annually. Things will not end well for Jon Rauch in New York.

It appears there's only one spot left for either Bobby Parnell or Pedro Beato now. Suffice it to say, I'm hoping it goes to Beato.

C- Thole
1B- Davis
2B- Murphy
3B- Wright
SS- Tejada
LF- Bay
CF-
RF- Duda
C-
IF- Turner
IF-
OF- Torres
OF-

I had Pagan penciled in as the starting center fielder, but I don't think Torres automatically has a lock on the job. Andres Torres is an excellent defensive outfielder, but he's not much of a hitter. His on-base percentage is too low for the top of the order and he doesn't have the type of base-stealing ability to make a team forget about how little he actually gives himself a chance to steal. A 6-7-8 of Torres-Thole-Tejada has a certain rhythm to it, but it's also going to be a black hole of OBP. Long story short, the Mets have opened a hole in center field by making a deal that was more about acquiring Ramirez than it was about replacing Pagan with Torres.

Second-Class Citizens - Mack's Mets

2011-08-14T11:34:00.000-04:00

Tom and I came to the same conclusion on a number of things that day. The first is that we both agree that the city will go absolutely crazy the next time the Mets win a World Series. The city still adores the 1986 Mets, possibly the most iconic team in New York baseball history. So many calamities have befallen the franchise since then that the celebration another championship would unleash would be legendary in scope and revelry.

We also agreed that this has to happen soon, or the Mets will never regain their perch as the darlings of New York City. The longer the Mets go on playing the comic foil to Yankees' track record of success, the more they risk becoming the Chicago White Sox of the Big Apple.

The Sox enjoy permanent second-class status in their own city, which remains enamored with the Cubs despite over 100 years without a championship. The Yankees have held the town without serious challenge for the better part of two decades now. The longer it goes on, the harder it's going to be for the Mets to get back on top.

Read the rest at Mack's Mets.

Waiting for Parnell - Mack's Mets

2011-08-06T18:04:00.000-04:00

Bobby Parnell pitched a perfect eighth inning back on July 28 against Cincinnati. Three up and three down on just eight pitches, with a strikeout to boot.

The next day, Parnell was undoubtedly the subject of breathless prose from both bloggers and the mainstream media, too much of which strains credulity looking for optimism every time Parnell has a decent outing. His supporters really seem to want Bobby Parnell to do well, because they really want to believe that he is the closer-in-waiting, or at least a dominant set-up man in the making.

He isn't.

Read the rest at Mack's Mets.

More on Mets vs. Expos - Again?

2011-08-01T12:43:00.001-04:00

The Expos were done in by the strike and two ownership groups that failed to invest in the product.

In 1990, the A's and the Royals were both in the Top 3 for overall payroll. In 1995, they were small-market teams. Montreal never spent like Oakland or KC, but like the A's and the Royals they were not the penny-pinching outfit they became after the strike.

The club was owned by Charles Bronfman until 1991 and the family business (Seagram's) helped pay the bills. The new ownership pulled the purse strings tight after the strike and eventually sold to Jeffrey Loria, who I am sure that there is already a special little corner in hell reserved for. Loria eventually finagled his way into control of the Marlins when Bud Selig decided that Washington DC deserved a third shot at supporting a baseball team more than Montreal deserved a competent ownership group.

Meanwhile, the Expos had never captured Montreal's fancy the way that the Canadiens still do, and after the strike there was a lot of bitterness toward MLB. Olympic Stadium remained a terrible place to play. Ownership made it clear that it was unwilling or unable to put a quality product on the field. The results were predictable: fans stayed away.

Montreal can still work as an MLB town, but only with an ownership group willing to do the dirty work to get a new stadium built. I suspect that Selig would be more than happy to threaten Oakland, Kansas City or Tampa with relocation the same way he once threatened Montreal.

July Columns

2011-07-30T16:38:00.002-04:00

I just got back from Montreal and completed by most recent column for Mack's Mets about baseball in that beautiful city. You can find it here. My two earlier columns can be found here and here. The plan is for me to contribute weekly columns for Mack's site, usually on Friday or Saturday.

New Column At Mack's Mets

2011-07-09T13:31:00.002-04:00

I'm committing to a Friday column over at Mack's Mets for the rest of the summer. My latest effort can be found here.

The Mets have to trade Carlos Beltran by July 31, no matter how well they've played for the last few months. They aren't catching the Phillies or the Braves and Beltran is not coming back in 2012. Apparently the Mets won't even be able to reap draft picks by offering salary arbitration, so not trading Beltran will leave them with absolutely nothing at the end of the season.

Red Bulls v. United tonight! look for me in Section 114!

Clown

2011-06-27T21:12:00.002-04:00

I think I've actually gotten to the point where I've completely lost interest in finding new words appropriate for insulting Jeff Wilpon. Just read this gem and continue praying for David Einhorn to save us from these fools.

It's Not You ... It Really Is Me.

2011-06-18T11:54:00.009-04:00

My dad and I went to two college baseball games last month. We had a great time on both occasions, sitting right behind home plate and watching St. John's University dispatch of Pittsburgh and Villanova in Big East play. My sister, my brother-in-law and my beautiful little niece also showed up for the first game, but it was just me and the old man two weeks later in the last home game of the season for the Redmen.

Those two games, two Saturday afternoons in May spent on metal bleachers watching semi-professionals playing my favorite game to the best of their ability, marked the first time in 22 years that we had gone to a baseball game together.

I was 12 years old on August 20, 1989, when my Dad and I saw the Mets lose to the Dodgers in heart-breaking fashion from two seats behind home plate in the Upper Deck section of Shea Stadium. (Loyal readers may remember that I've written about this day before.) My father is not a baseball fan, not really a fan of organized sports in general, but his son was a fanatic even then and so that meant taking him a baseball game now and again.

By 1991 I was a freshman in high school and started going to baseball games with my new friends - fellow Stanners who loved the Mets as much I did. I imagine my father was somewhat relieved that his days of shepherding me to baseball games were over, although I do remember taking in a few high school basketball games with him at Archbishop Molloy in those years before college. The trend continued when I graduated and went to St. John's - no baseball games, but a few basketball games at Alumni Hall watching the only sports team I've ever loved nearly as much as the Mets.

Baseball has always been my thing, not our thing. That's why he caught me by surprise when he expressed an interest in going to a game back in April, although he was adamant that he had no interest in watching professional baseball or dealing with the crowds that come with them. A college baseball game offered the perfect alternative - played at a high enough level that it would still be entertaining, but without all those damn people with the potential to ruin the experience.

I was struck by how much he enjoyed watching the game itself - taking pleasure in the quality of a single at-bat, a well-pitched inning or even an otherwise routine 4-6-3 double play. He didn't care when the managers put the bunt on at ridiculous points of the game and didn't obsess about bullpen usage or platoon match-ups. That was my job, and he listened without comment when I expressed my ideas about such topics.

I've wanted to write about those two afternoons with my dad at Jack Kaiser Stadium for nearly a month now, but I've struggled to find a way to frame the narrative. This is supposed to be a Mets blog, on those all-too-infrequent occasions where I find the inspiration to write something here, and I just couldn't find a way to tie the story together until now.

The calendar helped me out, for one thing - tomorrow is Father's Day and so a post about my father and our relationship with baseball seems less indulgent than it would at other points of the year. Being Irish in emotional temperament, yet having an ability to use the the written word to convey my thoughts and feelings, allows me to say things and express emotions in print that I couldn't possibly articulate in words.

Those were the two best afternoons I've had watching baseball in many, many years - and it had nothing to do with the teams on the field or the end result of the game. It had everything to do with the company. Really, what could be better than watching an afternoon of baseball with your father and having the home team come out on top? It was the first time I had a chance to do that in my adult life - and it was far more gratifying than it was as a kid.

This week, though, Will Leitch wrote an article for Baseball Prospectu s that really hammered home for me why I enjoyed the actual baseball games more than usual, beyond being at a ballpark with my father for the first times in over two decades.

Will's father and mine are different people - the article makes it clear that Mr. Leitch has been a die-hard Cardinals fan for many years. My father roots for the Mets, I suppose, but only because he has seen firsthand the devastating emotional impact that the Mets losing has on his son. No one wants to see their children suffer, and bad Met teams make me suffer.

They are similar people, I think, in that Will's father and mine care only about the final score of any particular game that favors the team they are rooting for. Unlike their sons, our fathers are not caught up in the game behind the game. From the article:

"He doesn’t know anything about the sabermetric revolution ... And he’s clueless as to how long the contracts of any of our beloved Cardinals last, or how much any of these players are making, save for 'too much.'

"The fundamentals of roster construction are a mystery to him ... And it's a mystery to him because he does not care. The team on the field wearing the Birds on the Bat, that's the one he's watching, and that's the one he's rooting for. He doesn't know any of the prospects, he doesn't know when everyone's contracts expire, he doesn't know what incentives are. My father is not stupid: he legitimately does not care. That's just not a factor in how he watches baseball."

Leitch goes on to explain how he himself watches baseball now, contrasting his father's simple joy of hoping for a Cardinals win to his own private hell of wanting the Cardinals to win "the right way" - whatever the hell that means.

"Dad doesn’t care about any of this. He likes the Cardinals to score more runs than the team they are playing, and when something happens that makes that more likely, he cheers. When it doesn’t, he yells ... It just, again, makes me long to be like my father, blissfully unaware and uncaring about advanced statistics, average annual value, and no-trade clauses. There is a game on the field, and he is watching it and cheering for his team. I can't ever do that again. I don't know how he does it, but dammit, he does."

I'll never find the words to thank my father enough for all that he's done for me - but at least I've found the words to tell him how special he made those two afternoons. He reminded me (with an assist from a well-written article by a baseball fan in the same boat as I am) that enjoying the game is the most important thing - rooting for your favorite team to win and being happy for them when they do.

We went to those two games hoping the Redmen would win. The Redmen won, and we were happy. I paid almost no attention to those ill-conceived sacrifices or the bullpen mismanagement I saw from both managers. They were merely noted in the back of my baseball brain and quickly forgotten, replaced by the pleasure of my father's company and an RBI single that put the Redmen ahead to stay.

I do not work in the front office of a baseball team and I never will. I will never have even the slightest iota of influence over the people who will make the decisions that determine in large part whether my favorite baseball team will ever win a World Series. And yet, I've spent so many years allowing my love for the Mets erode because of factors that are entirely beyond my control.

I've stopped enjoying the game of baseball itself because the manager doesn't understand strategy, because the general manager doesn't understand roster construction and because the front office doesn't know how to maximize revenue streams. It doesn't matter that there isn't a franchise in baseball with personnel that excel in each of these areas - I get angry at the Mets for being just like everyone else.

That has to change. And it's going to change.

Like Mr. Leitch, my father doesn't care that the bunt is generally a bad play. He doesn't care that bullpens are overly specialized. He doesn't care if the Mets refuse to draft over-slot or if they block promising prospects with over-the-hill veterans. For him, baseball is nothing more than rooting for your favorite team to win. It doesn't matter how it happens, it just matters that it happens.

And, of course, he's right again.

The man has been teaching me things my entire life. On those two Saturdays in May, my father reminded me of a simple truth that I lost sight of a long time ago, about a game I know far more about than he ever will.

The win is the thing.

In a way, I've been Waiting for Godot for years now. The Mets have done something right 34 times this season. I haven't enjoyed any of them. They aren't going to win the division this year, and I doubt they will seriously contend for several years to come. If I put the Mets on the shelf until that time comes, I am only doing myself a disservice.

So I am going to take yet another lesson my father has taught me to heart. The Mets are playing today, and I hope they win.

They're playing another game tomorrow, and I hope they win that one too. I have tickets for a game against the Yankees in a few weeks, and I'm going to the game. I hope they win that one too.

I'm not going to stop analyzing the Mets, and I'm not going to stop criticizing the organization when it does things I do not agree with. But I am not going to let that get in the way in the simple act of being a fan. When the Mets play, I want them to win. I am going to root for them to win and I am going to be happy when they do.

The rest will work itself out.

And next spring, when St. John's returns to the baseball diamond, me and the old man will be there. Rooting for our favorite team to win.

I'm Back!

2011-06-02T11:44:00.003-04:00

Well, temporarily, anyway.

I haven't posted in over six months because I haven't cared enough to bother writing anything of substance in the last six months. There's only about 20 of you who will ever read this anyway, and I figure you can always just ask me my opinion about the Mets if you really want to know.

That said, a few thoughts:

* Mack has gone back to his free site at Mack's Mets, and if you really want to read what I think about the state of the New York Mets then you can do so over there. Mack continues to be kind enough to allow me a forum to reach a far greater audience by offering the opportunity to be a contributing member. I haven't taken him up on his most recent offer yet, but I remain hopeful that I will find inspiration again in the near future.

* No major complaints about the front office, the manager or the roster. Next week will be the first true litmus test of the Sandy Alderson regime. If the Mets stick to slot recommendations and refuse to overpay for any of their first four picks, then we will know that it's business as usual under the Wilpon yoke.

* David Einhorn, please buy my favorite baseball team.

* This article and the BTF thread about it caught my eye. MLB's plan for a catastrophic event affecting an entire team is contained within something called the Rule 29 Draft. Basically, each "non-disabled club" has to make a pitcher, a catcher, an infielder, an outfielder and a fifth player available to the "disabled club" for the purposes of re-stocking the roster. These players have to come from the active roster on the day that disaster struck. (So melodramatic!)

So if the worst had happened and the Angels were forced to re-stock its roster, which Mets players would I have made available? Tim Byrdak, Ronny Paulino, Willie Harris, Jason Bay and Dale Thayer. You'd have to think that the Angels, with no payroll obligations and a desperate need to bring MLB quality players, would take a chance on Bay, even if it meant absorbing the remaining two years and $32 million on his contract.

Yes, I know its a creepy line of thought to expound upon. But what does it say about how far Jason Bay's star has fallen that it might actually take a massive air disaster and resulting loss of human life for another baseball team to take a chance on his contract?

First Attempt at Projecting the Opening Day 25-Man Roster

2011-01-23T10:44:00.002-05:00

SP- Mike Pelfrey
SP- Jon Niese
SP- R.A. Dickey
SP- Chris Capuano
SP- Chris Young

Johan Santana won't be back in the rotation until the All-Star Game (at the earliest), and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses the entire 2011 season. Pelfrey, Niese and Dickey appear to the the only locks - Dickey is probably going to arbitration, even as he looks for a two-year deal. Capuano and Young will round out the rotation, provided both men are healthy to start the season. Dillon Gee, Pat Misch and *gulp* Oliver Perez will compete for rotation spots that open up as the result of injury or ineffectiveness.

RP- Francisco Rodriguez
RP- DJ Carrasco
RP- Bobby Parnell
RP- Taylor Buchholz
RP- Pedro Beato
RP- Oliver Perez

The Mets will start the season with seven relievers, of course, but I suspect at least one slot in the bullpen will be awarded to a dark horse who pitches impressively in Spring Training. Yes, I know you don't want to see Oliver Perez throw a pitch in a Mets uniform ever again, but right now they do not appear to have any viable left-handed options in the bullpen. I could see Perez filling a dual long man/lefty specialist role, especially if the Mets go into camp without a larger selection of southpaws to choose from. Terry Collins absolutely has to dance the fine line of keeping K-Rod's 2012 contract option from triggering without drawing a grievance from the MLB Players Association.

C- Josh Thole
C- Ronny Paulino

I really like this combination. Thole is the clear starter and Paulino is a veteran platoon partner who will hit lefties well enough to be a positive contributor, but not well enough to tempt Collins from taking at-bats from Thole even if he gets off to a slow start. I don't expect that to happen, however - Thole looks like a good bet to put up a string of .285/.360/.375 seasons in a Mets uniform. It ain't great, but you don't need much more from a #8 hitter and/or a catcher.

1B- Ike Davis
2B- Dan Murphy
3B- David Wright
SS- Jose Reyes
IF- Brad Emaus
IF- Justin Turner

The only competition is at second base, where Murphy, Emaus and Turner are the most likely players to stick with the team. I'm not sure if Luis Castillo will be with the team by the time it heads south, but he will have to hit like the the 2000 version of Castillo to have any hope of making this team. Chin-lung Hu and Luis Hernandez are in the mix as well, I suppose, but Murphy and Emaus seem pretty secure and only Turner seems vulnerable. I think he will out-play his competition and stick with the big club.

LF- Jason Bay
CF- Carlos Beltran
RF- Angel Pagan
OF-
OF-

The starters are set in stone, unless injuries get in the way. I'm not ready to speculate on the backups, because the race just seems so wide open. I suspect Scott Hairston has the edge for one of those positions; he hit 17 home runs in both 2008 and 2009 and has a career line of .278/.331/.498 line against lefties. Lucas Duda and Nick Evans are in the mix as well, but Hairston's position flexibility and major league resume seems more likely to block the right-handed Evans than the left-handed Duda.

The Phillies and the 4 1/2 Man Rotation

2010-12-15T10:27:00.003-05:00

So the Phillies have sewn up the 2011 National League East and the only drama to look forward to will be whether they win 105 or 110 games on their way to the pennant. The answer to that burning question will be in the starting rotation that Phillies manager Charlie Manuel decides to use.

If the Phillies keep fifth starter Joe Blanton and rotate their four aces equally, Manuel may leave a few wins on the table during his team's march to the playoffs. If the Phillies trade Blanton and skip the fifth starter liberally when the schedule allows for it, there will be a few extra wins for the taking.

(The following projection, of course, is based strictly on the notion that Lee, Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt are healthy for the entire 2011 season. All four made at least 32 starts last year, so this is not out of the realm of possibility.)

The first step is understanding that the Phillies will NOT be employing a strict four-man rotation next year. Those days are over, especially considering the amount of money Philadelphia has tied up in its front four. Frankly, it would be an unnecessary risk for a team that can afford to give 20+ starts to a fifth starter and still make the playoffs.

However, that doesn't mean the Phillies can't put Lee, Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt on a four-day rotation. Simply put, that means the ace of the rotation gets the ball every fifth day, regardless of how the schedule breaks. Everyone else falls in behind and a starter's spot in the rotation prioritizes how quickly he makes his start. Off-days are no longer seen as an opportunity for an extra day of rest - they are seen as a chance to skip the fifth starter.

In a strict five-man rotation with no interruptions, the first two starters (presumably Lee and Halladay) will get 33 starts and the back of the rotation starters will get 32 starts. However, if you look at the Phillies' schedule and use off-days to skip the fifth starter, you can end up with a breakdown something like this:

Lee: 36
Halladay: 34
Oswalt: 34
Hamels: 32
Fifth Starter: 26

The chance to take six starts out of the hands of an inferior pitcher, while maintaining a traditional rest schedule of at least four days between starts, is something that more teams should consider trying. For a team with four great starters like the Phillies, it's a chance to truly get the most bang for their considerable bucks.

It's also important to note that the Phillies should have a comfortable lead in the N.L. East by September 1, and therefore can consider going to a strict five-man rotation for the final month if they so desire. This will increase the number of appearances for the fifth starter, but it will give the big guys a little extra rest going into the playoffs.

Welcome to Citi Field, Mr. Collins - How Long Will You Be Staying?

2010-11-24T12:44:00.000-05:00

(This was originally posted at Mack's Baseball.)

Relax, Mets fans. Terry Collins isn’t going to be here forever.

The Mets’ former minor-league field coordinator was introduced to the media during a morning press conference at Citi Field today, where he undoubtedly received a better reception than he would have had the most vocal components of the team’s fan base been allowed to attend.

What those unhappy fans need to understand is that Collins has been hired as the team’s new manager for reasons that have more to do with his personality than any perception of his managerial acumen. Collins is the new Mets’ manager primarily because General Manager Sandy Alderson believes that he is the best man to completely overhaul a clubhouse that has been described with just about every negative perception you can imagine in recent weeks.

Collins was officially given a two-year contract to manage the Mets, with a club option for 2013. Don’t be surprised if the Mets choose to decline that option when the time comes and reward Collins by putting him in the front office instead. He was not hired to manage the next Mets team that plays in the World Series.

He was hired to manage a team that first needs to be taught how to play winning baseball.

When you read or listen to the words of people in the know, the Mets’ problems go far beyond a top-heavy roster filled with bad contracts and mediocre players. There is a serious culture concern about the Mets’ clubhouse, one that has nothing to do with the “Los Mets” phenomenon observed under former GM Omar Minaya.

The Mets, under the leadership of Minaya and former manager Jerry Manuel, have lost their hunger. They have become comfortable – complacent, even, despite the losing records of the previous two years. The team has been undisciplined, lacking in motivation and has generally behaved as though there would be no consequences to their actions.

Those days are over.

Think of Alderson’s decision to hire Collins as being akin to the attack on Fort Sumter that began the Civil War. Alderson’s front office is sending a clear message to the current roster – “you aren’t going to get away with the unprofessional behavior you’ve gotten away with in the past.”

That’s where Collins comes in. He has previous managerial experience in Houston and Southern California, where he managed the Angels for parts of three seasons before resigning in late 1999 after repeated clashes with his players. Collins hasn’t managed in the big leagues since, although he has managed teams in Japan and an independent league.

Collins was hired for who he is – a baseball lifer and a fiery personality with no tolerance for a bad attitude. Collins is going to set a particular tone from the first day he steps on the field during the Spring Training. A baseball player wearing a New York Mets jersey will play the game hard, will play the game right and will respect the chain off command in the organization.

If he does not, Terry Collins will work with Sandy Alderson to ensure that the player will no longer be a New York Met.

This process was never about hiring the best tactical manager or the brightest up-and-coming star. That’s why Bobby Valentine was never called and Wally Backman is at yet another career crossroads today. Terry Collins has been handed a clean-up job, and every single player in the Mets organization should be on notice.

Get in line with what Terry wants, or get ready to leave town.

Dallas Green was thrust into a similar role when he replaced Jeff Torborg as the Mets manager in 1993. It took Green nearly three years to clean up that mess and doing so completely changed the culture of the organization. Valentine took over in late 1996 and the seeds of a successful four-year run were ready to bloom.

(One could certainly debate that Green’s abrasive demeanor and tactical shortcomings made that process more difficult and confrontational than necessary, but that comes with the territory when you hire Dallas Green.)

Terry Collins is in the same role today as Green was over 15 years ago. Any Mets fan who seriously thinks that this team is one or even two players away from a 90-win season hasn’t been paying attention. The Mets can’t focus on winning games in 2011 – the roster is too thin and too cash-strapped as a result of bad free agent signings for the team to seriously compete with Atlanta or Philadelphia.

No, the Mets have to focus on identifying which players they want on their team for 2012 and beyond. The expiring contracts of Carlos Beltran, Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo alone free up over $30 million. Should the Mets decide to part ways with Jose Reyes and Francisco Rodriguez during or after the 2011 season, nearly $25 million more would become available.

Only then will the Mets be ready to add a starting pitcher to a rotation that could feature Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese behind him. Only then can the team look to add two position players to a lineup featuring David Wright, Jason Bay and Ike Davis.

By then, the Mets hope Collins will have helped integrate young players like Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada and Jenrry Mejia into an environment where winning is the only priority. Collins can then give way to the next Mets manager, the man who will be given the reins of a championship-caliber ballclub.

Terry Collins has a job to do, all right – and it’s a lot more important than winning games in 2011.

Competence

2010-11-08T21:41:00.002-05:00

Sandy Alderson is an accomplished and competent baseball man. JP Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta are not as accomplished as their new boss, but they are also competent baseball men who will continue to get better. That is three competent baseball men in the Mets front office these days - three more then were there just one year ago.

Now, if Alderson can simply ignore little Jeffy and the president of the Sandy Koufax fan club, this team may be ready to go somewhere.

Winning Back the Hearts of Mets Fans

2010-10-09T12:18:00.002-04:00

(This was originally posted at Mack's Mets. I made a few tweaks for my own blog.)

By one measure, the 2010 baseball season ended for me on August 18. That date stands out because it was the last time I updated my blog. But my interest in the Mets really began dwindling at the beginning of June, once the World Cup in South Africa began.

I am a baseball fan first and foremost, but every four years my love and appreciation for soccer increases in conjunction with arrival of the World Cup. The U.S. national team specialized in doling out nervous breakdowns to their supporters this summer, but a moment as special as thi s made it all worth it.

The reality is that the 2010 season ended much sooner than hoped - for both the Mets and for a lot of their fans. Hindsight is 20-20, of course, but any Met fan who was paying attention should have known from the start that this team was ill-equipped to overtake Philadelphia or Atlanta in the National League East. The pitching was shaky, the lineup was top-heavy and the bench was horrible. It seemed like the only three people who had no idea what was going to happen were Jeff Wilpon, Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel.

I take no great pride in having predicted that the Mets would finish no better than 78-84 back on April 5, but I did so all the same. The sad truth is that the Mets finished only outplayed this prediction is because throughout the season the front office rectified a lot of the mistakes it made with the 25-man roster that broke camp in April.

Mike Jacobs, Frank Catalonotto and Gary Matthews were cut. Jenrry Mejia was mercifully allowed to ditch the relief pitcher experiment and continue the process of transforming into a #1 starter. Oliver Perez was banished to baseball Siberia and John Maine was pulled five pitches into the final start of his season.

But by the time all that had happened, it was already too late. Something happened to Mets fans this summer - a lot of us just stopped caring.

Maybe you fell in love with soccer too. Maybe you rediscovered some other joy in your life that had been neglected during the summer months. Maybe you just decided that you weren't going to spend what little money you still had in your pocket at the end of the week on a team that treated its payroll much the way that The Joker treated the money he took from Gotham City's more unsavory elements.

(By the way, I've been dying to share this thought - how great would it be if a New York-based soccer club took the name "Gotham City SC?" Forget about the return of the New York Cosmos - supporting the Dark Knights would be so much cooler.)

People stopped going to Mets games so often. They stopped updating their fan blogs. They stopped putting their heart and soul into the Mets - and found that a life with their favorite baseball team somewhere in the background wasn't so bad after all.

The front office has to do more than just hire a manager and a general manager this off-season. They have to find a way to make the Mets relevant again.

That doesn't necessarily mean lavishing millions of dollars on the latest hot free agent, because that strategy has failed time and time again. The Mets always go out and get one big free agent - is this team any better off because of the contracts handed to Jason Bay, Francisco Rodriguez and Perez over the last three years?

No, free agency is not the way. Free agency is a last resort. The signing of free agents is the act of paying players for what they did in the past, with no reasonable guarantee that they will do so in the future. A team that is one or two players away can take a risk on a free agent - the Mets have many more holes to fill.

The process of making the Mets relevant again is a lot more complicated than that - and it doesn't have a lot to do with the team's performance on the field. The Mets aren't going to win in 2011, either. Johan Santana will miss a large portion of the season and may never be the same after shoulder surgery. Perez and Luis Castillo are still eating up nearly $20 million worth of payroll. Closers are obscene luxuries on 80-win teams, especially when they make $11.5 million a year.

The next general manager needs to have a three-year plan to success, and the first year needs to be dedicated to patiently waiting out Minaya's bad contracts. The next manager needs to have a better tactical grasp of the game and a willingness to blow up conventional notions about strategy and player use.

It would also be nice if the new manager instilled a sense of toughness and accountability in this team. The real problem on this club is a lack of elite talent and I'm not much for intangibles, but the Mets need more guys with attitudes like Chris Carter - guys who genuinely seem to care if they win or lose.

Until all that begins to take shape, the Mets will remain the bad joke they've become yet again. As for me, I'm going out to Harrison to watch the Red Bulls take on Salt Lake today. I'm going to boo Thierry Henry for robbing the Irish and cheer for fellow St. John's graduate Chris Wingert.

Yes, I'm the guy that the Mets have to win back.

Bobby Parnell

2010-08-18T23:18:00.002-04:00

I have never been a big fan of Bobby Parnell. I know he has a dynamite arm, but he hasn't shown any ability to harness his talent at any level of professional baseball. All I see when I look at Parnell is Kyle Farnsworth, without the propensity to reel off three unhittable months every couple of seasons.

Still, watching Parnell mow down the Astros in the 11th and 12th inning tonight, mixing a triple-digit fastball with a sharp-breaking slider, made me sit up and take notice. The SNY radar gun is obviously too fast - it clocked the fastball used to blow away Chris Johnson at 102 MPH. Even if it was, say, 3 MPH too fast tonight, that means Parnell was still locating a 99 MPH fastball against major league hitters.

You can teach a lot of things, but you cannot teach a 99 MPH fastball.

With Francisco Rodriguez out for the season and the Mets going nowhere fast, lame duck skipper Jerry Manuel might as well install Parnell as the closer for the last 40 games. If he racks up 10 to 15 saves, regardless of how effective he really is, it will only enhance Parnell's trade value this off-season. If he actually takes to the closer's spot well, the Mets may have finally found a role for Parnell to succeed in.

Who's to Blame?

2010-08-01T13:37:00.002-04:00

Adam Rubin wrote about the lack of wheeling and dealing at the trade deadline for the Mets yesterday, and offered a reasoned perspective as to what is really wrong with the franchise right now:

You can clumsily cite principal owner Fred Wilpon and his family supposedly being stingy for such a deal not materializing, but that would be misguided -- even if ownership isn't blameless. The bottom line is the payroll is still hovering around $130 million this season.

The better answer: If GM Omar Minaya had shown restraint in his other salary commitments -- say, not giving Luis Castillo four years and $25 million or Oliver Perez three years and $36 million or guaranteeing seven years to Carlos Beltran -- he likely would have had the flexibility to pull off an Oswalt-type trade now.

It's far more about no discipline than no money.

Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo will make $18 million between them both this season and next season. That is nothing less than a fiasco. The Beltran argument is a bit of a reach; he will only be 34 next season and there was no reason to believe he would have a career-threatening knee injury with two years remaining on the contract.

I have been saying all season that Beltran wouldn't play in 2010. I was wrong about that - he definitely came back earlier than expected. I will say that he is clearly not playing at full strength and nothing less than a full offseason of rest will change that. I still think the days of Carlos Beltran as an elite baseball player have come to an end.

It's OK to Trade Bobby Parnell

2010-08-01T10:39:00.002-04:00

This I don't like. From MetsBlog:

(Omar) Minaya said the Mets were “close” to making a deal in the final half hour before the deadline, but considering teams were continuing to ask for Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Ruben Tejada and Bobby Parnell, the Mets were unable to find a fit.

Now that is a surprisingly reasonable assessment of the situation by Minaya, except for including Parnell in that mix. It's just silly to include a pitcher who has failed as both a starter and a reliever with three guys who the Mets should legitimately be interested in retaining.

Davis is the starting first baseman and there is no one in the organization ready to play the position competently on the major league level. I've compared him multiple times to Adam LaRoche, since that is the career path I think you can expect from Ike: a .275/.350/.475 line with 20 to 25 homers a year. That's not a superstar, but the Mets won't be paying Davis like a superstar for the next six years.

I'm more much more excited about Niese, who I think has the potential to be a good #3 starter on a playoff team or a #2 starter on an also-ran. There are very few pitchers in baseball I would trade Niese for - Roy Oswalt and Ted Lilly were not among them. I expect both Davis and Niese to be Mets five years from now and for both to be important contributors to a playoff team.

I am more ambivalent about Tejada. His development may have been stunted by the Mets' over-aggressive promotion schemes of the Tony Bernazard regime, but the response to that idea is that Tejada may actually be a guy who really comes into his own in two years. If Tejada had been traded I would not have been heartbroken, but I am happier that he's here. He's still only 20 years old and the Mets really should commit to leaving him in Buffalo until the end of the 2011 season to see what they have in Tejada.

Parnell, though ... Parnell is a different story. He simply has not been very good at any level throughout his professional career; he has consistently put up WHIPS over 1.400 in the minors and was knocked around in whatever role the Mets used him in last year. Parnell is being lit up against lefties this season (a .345/.387/.379 line) and looks to all the world to be a 25-year-old hard-throwing righty specialist with nothing on his resume to make a neutral observer believe he can be more than that.

I don't know what Parnell would have fetched the Mets in a trade. I seriously doubt it would have been enough to make the Mets playoff contenders anyway - were the Marlins offering Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla for Parnell? But my message to Omar Minaya is this - if someone approached you with a trade offer for Bobby Parnell, do not hesitate to pull the trigger.

MetropoliTONS of Fun

2010-07-31T11:28:00.003-04:00

You already know what it is
We the Mets from Queens
We lose a lot ...
but we're going to try to win
We'll see what happens

So Ron Artest has created a Mets anthem for the 21st century. Why is it not surprising that someone as creatively and emotionally ... different as Ron Ron found a way to sum up what it means to be a Mets fan in a two-minute verse?

Win some, lose some
The Mets dun dun
We just tell ourselves
Success is a nuisance

Success must be a nuisance, because Met ownership and the front office seem to have been allergic to it for the better part of 50 years now. The past 15 years have been particularly difficult to bear, since the playing field has been tilted in favor of big-market clubs like at no other time in baseball history.

No matter - as is their custom, the Mets have bungled their way through most of that time period anyway. Three playoff appearances, one National League championship - that's it. Success is apparently such a nuisance for the Wilpon family that, since firing Bobby Valentine eight years ago, they've decided to employ a corporate flunkie as a general manager and a series of stooges as managers. Success has certainly been kept to a minimum around these parts, thanks to the hiring practices of Fred Wilpon.

Today is the trading deadline - which itself has become sort of a black feast day for the Mets fans. Once I'm done here, I'm going to strap on my praying hat and beg the baseball gods to keep the Mets from doing something stupid that will only keep this team further from their third championship. The last time I forgot to do that, Victor Zambrano became a Met.

I got a ring
No need to be cranky
The Mets need 25 more
To tie the Los Los Yankees

Shut up, Ron Ron.

Baseball is not exactly a singing sport, anyway. Everyone knows the words to Take Me Out to the Ballgame, of course, and far too many people drunkenly slobber the lyrics to Sweet Caroline whenever it is foisted upon us. (Can we start a movement to ban Sweet Caroline at sporting events around the country? I am convinced that footage of American baseball fans screaming "so good, so good, so good!" is shown in terrorist training camps around the world on an endless loop to whip would-be jihadists into a lather.)

Mets fans are actually lucky in that we have two incomparable homages to our hometown team. Meet the Mets is still a wonderful sing-along; created in 1962, updated in 1984, it is the first song I plan on teaching my little niece when she's old enough to sing it. (War Eagle will be the second song she learns - she'll be the envy of her pre-school class!)

Then there is Lets Go Mets, the soundtrack to the 1986 championship season. I have a simple request - the Mets should play Meet the Mets before the bottom of the first inning and Lets Go Mets right after the national anthem (minus the Joe Piscopo interlude, of course). Forget Take Me Out to the Ballgame and Lazy Mary -we have our own songs to sing.

Now we have Ron Ron's joint, which belongs up there with the two greatest Mets songs ever written. Embrace the silliness, the ill-placed Jason Bay shout-out, the self-effacing lyrics about the Mets' limited history of success. Ron Ron has captured exactly what it means to be a Mets fan - loyalty in the face of logic, fidelity in the face of reason.

We are all Mets fans, no matter how incompetent ownership is, no matter how embarrassing the on-field product becomes. We stay with this team, year after year, because they are our team and because somehow, in some way, they find little ways to make us happy.

We the MetropoliTONS of Fun
We the MetropoliTONS of Fun
No matter how many games we won
We the MetropoliTONS of Fun

1986, 1969 dot dot dot
C'mon y'all, let's step it up.

Geek Trinity Approved!

2010-07-30T17:02:00.003-04:00

As you know, I am awesome. Part of being awesome, of course, is not discriminating against geeks.

So when I found out that the boys from Geek Trinity added me to their Links We Like, I was humbled and honored. (They got the name of the site wrong - it's Productive Outs and Crackerjack! - but the site is still in its infancy and small mistakes can be overlooked for now.) Golden Ratio and the Jersey Pirate (aka Sarcastic Bastard) are two of my favorite people in the world, even if they both live hundreds of miles away. I haven't spent much time with Dez5908, but I imagine I'll be hoisting pints with him two weeks from now when I make my long-awaited return to the Port City. If Golden Ratio and the Jersey Pirate vouch for him, then I know he's a good guy.

I am a little ashamed, though; the link description describes this blog as "where we go for our daily dose of insightful baseball talk from a forlorn Mets fan (emphasis mine)." Productive Outs has barely been able to administer weekly doses of baseball insight this season, although God knows that I certainly am forlorn. I'll try to better, now that I am Geek Trinity Approved!

Brilliant Marketing Strategy

2010-07-27T13:02:00.003-04:00

The Cardinals have an interesting and creative ticket promotion that I would jump all over if I was in St. Louis. At 9 am on game day (not sure if this for day games and for night games), the ticket office sells 275 pairs of tickets for $11 each. The catch - you don't know where the seats are until you open the envelope with the tickets inside. You might get a field level seat; you might get an upper deck seat. I'm sure the cheap seats far outnumber the good ones, but using a game day lottery system to sell off unused tickets is a great idea.

As the Mets slip further away from playoff contention, I spend a lot more time thinking about the business behind the game. I'm starting in MPS in Sport Management this fall (as if I needed another distraction from maintaining this blog!) and ideas like the Cardinals' ticket selling scheme is the reason I am so interested in the program. When you root for a team that is so poorly run, it becomes painfully apparent that professional franchises can be run much more intelligently and efficiently.

If there's anyone still reading - what are some of your ideas for running a professional franchise?

All-Star Break

2010-07-12T10:24:00.002-04:00

Some thoughts about the Mets as they start a three-day vacation and I get back to work:

* I know I've been telling anyone who will listen that Carlos Beltran was not going to play in 2010, but it looks like he will be activated in time for Thursday night's game. Am I surprised? Absolutely. Am I convinced he will make it through the rest of the season? Not at all.

That's why the news that Angel Pagan is the new starting right fielder and that Jeff Francouer is going to ride the pine may not mean all that much. Beltran is going to need extra rest anyway, so it wouldn't surprise me to see Frenchy start twice a week on a regular basis. If and when Beltran's knee succumbs to everyday abuse, Pagan will just switch back to center field and Francouer will be back in the starting lineup.

Until then, kudos to management for realizing that Pagan is unquestionably the better player and absolutely should be starting over Francouer. They actually make a devastating platoon - Francouer has a .348/.403/.449 line against lefties and Pagan has an .333/.397/.510 line against righties. Maybe Frenchy should also start shagging fly balls in center field and right field. Bay-Beltran-Pagan is surely the best starting outfield we have, but Francouer would be a reasonably valuable fourth outfielder if he played all three positions and could platoon against lefties.

* Ruben Tejada has shown that he has the potential to be a productive major league middle infielder, but it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if he finished the season in Buffalo once Luis Castillo returns. The biggest problem I see is that it will basically ensure that Alex Cora's contract option will vest and Cora will end up blocking Tejada in 2011 if that happens.

Someone will also need to tell Jerry Manuel that, once Castillo returns, he has to bat eighth. Pagan has earned the #2 spot in the lineup and to move him down to accommodate Castillo's Punch-and-Judy act will hurt the team.

The ideal lineup for this team, once Beltran returns, is Reyes-Pagan-Wright-Beltran-Bay-Davis-Barajas-2B-P. I like Ike breaking up the two right-handed bats, especially since he has come back down to earth a bit and may benefit from hitting a little lower down in the lineup.

* If John Maine ever wants to pitch in the major leagues again, it will almost certainly include a stint in Triple-A. I can't see him getting anything more than a minor-league contract in 2011. He would be crazy not to make 10 starts for Buffalo this summer and try to force his way into the September mix for the Mets. Otherwise, you may never see him in a major league uniform again.

World Cup Fever

2010-07-09T12:30:00.002-04:00

I have it bad. So bad that I haven't posted in a month. Maybe I'll be back after the All-Star Break.

Quick thoughts:
* Yes, Mack, I am still alive. (Thank you for asking!) Readers, go to Mack's blog and consider purchasing a copy of "The Keepers." I have my copy from the beginning of the season and I know so much more about the Mets farm system because of it.
* I'm more excited about Jon Niese than Mike Pelfrey. All of a sudden, the top three in the Met rotation are good enough to make this an 86- to 89-win team. RA Dickey is the #5 - does this mean the Mets are one good starter away from 90 wins?
* Why are the Mets looking better? Addition by subtraction. No John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Jacobs, Luis Castillo and Frank Catalanotto? No problem. Jenrry Mejia is down in Double-A where he should have been all season. The final step? Releasing Fernando Tatis and making sure that Alex Cora's option doesn't vest.
* Cliff Lee to the Yankees? If so, we're all just playing for second place ...

Padres Bullpen

2010-06-09T10:34:00.003-04:00

This was going to be part of the earlier entry, but I decided that it deserved stand-alone attention. Have you seen how good the Padres bullpen this year?

Their closer, Heath Bell has a 1.38 ERA - and he may be having the worst season among the primary relievers. Luke Gregerson is simply unhittable - the league is batting .114 off him. Mike Adams and last night's goat Edward Mujica are both striking out more than a batter an inning while also allowing less than one baserunner per frame. Joe Thatcher, Ryan Webb and Tim Stauffer (currently on a rehab assignment after a bout with appendicitis) have combined for over 50 innings of work with an ERA of 0.85 and a WHIP of 0.911. That's from the back of the bullpen, folks.

My favorite part about the Padres' bullpen? Their salaries:

Bell: $4 mill
Adams: $ 1 mill
Mujica: $420K
Gregerson: $416K
Stauffer: $415K
Thatcher: $413K
Webb: $400K

The entire bullpen makes a little more than $7 million this year - which is over $5 million LESS than Francisco Rodriguez alone!

Glimmers of Hope

2010-06-09T10:24:00.002-04:00

When a 26-year-old home-grown starting pitcher gives you nine terrific innings and a 23-year-old home-grown first baseman hits a game-winning home run, how can you not feel good about your team?

One could say that last night's win over the Padres was the best win the Mets have had this season. Mike Pelfrey was brilliant, needing just 103 pitches to get through nine innings of five-hit, one-run ball. He deserved a win for his efforts, but Padres starter Clayton Richard combined with two relievers to match Pelfrey's brilliance step-by-step in regulation time.

Could Pelfrey have gone out and pitched the tenth inning, considering the fact that he was due to lead off in the bottom of the tenth? Absolutely. He was pitching on six days' rest and had gotten through the ninth without incident. He was still pitching efficiently, having thrown only 28 pitches across the eighth and ninth innings.

Jerry Manuel, of course, saw differently. Manuel is a very nice man with what apparently passes for a charming wit. His players seem to genuinely like him and like playing for him. He is not a good manager, however; a man far too devoted to the orthodoxy of conventional thought and lacking either the ability or the desire to think outside the very narrow box of baseball dogma. Manuel will not be with the Mets in 2011, not if they harbor any serious championship aspirations.

Pelfrey could have started the tenth inning. Instead, Manuel double-switched after the ninth inning ended and brought in Francisco Rodriguez, who needed only 13 pitches to dispatch of the Padres in the tenth. Then, despite the manuever that should've allowed Rodriguez to stay in the game, K-Rod was gone once the 11th inning began. Sigh.

In the grand scheme of things, Manuel should not be the focus today. Manuel is part of the past, and will one day be spoken of in hazy tones when Mets fans try to bridge the gap between the worst manager in franchise history and future skipper Wally Backman. Ike Davis, however, is very much a part of the future - his heroics last night will be remembered for a long time to come.

Davis stepped to the plate in the 11th inning and put an end to Manuel's usual shenanigans. He took a Mujica pitch deep into the night, finally landing halfway up the Pepsi Porch about 15 minutes after he crossed home plate. It reminded you of some of the majestic home runs Mike Piazza used to hit - crushing blows that seemed to take ages before they fell to earth.

The Mets were winners - a common story when they play at Citi Field these days - and moved four games over .500 for the second time this season. Toward the end of Spring Training, after analyzing the Mets' off-season moves and projecting what the 2010 roster was going to look like as a result, I picked them to finish 78-84 and to finish in fourth place.

Since then, the Mets have replaced Mike Jacobs with Davis. They have released Frank Catalanotto and Gary Matthews. John Maine and Oliver Perez are right where they belong - on the disabled list and out of the rotation. The Mets are still a flawed team, but they are a better team today then they were on Opening Day.

Mike Pelfrey has blossomed into a staff ace. Ike Davis is a middle-of-the-pack National League first baseman right now, with room to grow into one of the better ones in the league. Jon Niese is the #3 starter, not the #5, and showing signs that he could fill that role for years to come. Sure, there are still holes on this team. Pelfrey, Davis and Niese are filling three holes that were there when Spring Training ended.

There is hope.

Matt Harvey

2010-06-08T10:34:00.003-04:00

The Mets went for a college starter with their first pick in the amateur draft last night, grabbing Matt Harvey from UNC with the seventh overall pick. I hadn't heard very much about the Mets coveting Harvey with their pick so I was a little surprised when they selected him over Miami catcher Yasmani Grandal, who was unexpectedly still on the board.

Grandal was picked by some to go as high as fourth overall and there were rumors that the Royals had already agreed to a deal with Grandal even before the draft began. The Royals went with Christian Colon instead and I expected the Mets to react by scooping Grandal up and thanking the amateur baseball gods for their good fortune.

Grandal would've made me happier than Harvey, but I am far from disappointed with the pick. I happen to favor stockpiling big college right-handed starters when it comes to the draft. Starting pitching is still the coin of the realm and Harvey has a few things I like about him besides the major-college pedigree. He throws hard and already has a decent feel for two breaking pitches. Harvey was very highly regarded going into college and was a great college starter during his freshman and junior years.

The red flag for Harvey is his sophomore year performance, apparently because of mechanical issues that remain his biggest concern. I was surprised and a little disheartened when John Sickels panned the pick, because John Sickels knows a hell of a lot more than I do.

A brief digression: when baseball observers speak broadly about "mechanics," I am never sure if they mean that a pitcher's mechanics make him susceptible to injury or if he simply has problems repeating his motion. If it's the first concern, I don't worry about it. Mark Prior had flawless mechanics and his arm blew up on him. The second concern is a bigger issue. I don't really care HOW a guy throws, as long as he's comfortable and can repeat it. Someone like Luis Tiant wouldn't even be drafted today because of his unique mechanics, or he would have been ruined in the minors because some Single-A pitching coach would've completely change the dynamics of it.

A smaller red flag, depending on how you look at it, is the news that Harvey had a 156-pitch outing for the Tarheels earlier this year. It was mentioned during last night's draft show and one of the analysts claim that his final pitch of the night was still 95 MPH. If you read my infrequent postings then you know I'm no pitch-count watcher, but an outing like that is what you makes you worry about college starters. Some college managers are known for shredding the arms of their starters in the annual quest to get to Omaha.

If Harvey signs quickly enough, he'll be on the mound in Brooklyn this summer. I say "if," because Harvey is a Scot Boras client who can go back to UNC for his senior year if the Mets do not meet his asking price. I will be very interested to see if the Mets, who have slavishly adhered to slot recommendations for several years now, meet Harvey's salary demands. Boras certainly won't be worrying about slot recommendations!

State of The Mets Debate

2010-05-27T11:04:00.004-04:00

I'm cheating a little bit here, because I'm recopying an email that the Flushing Flash sent earlier this week to the rest of the UBS Alumni Email Chain. Here are his thoughts on the state of the Mets and my response:

FF: The reality is that the Mets are not contenders this year. They shouldn’t be looking for the quick fix but rather looking at 2011 (or maybe even 2012). The best way to do this is to look at it position by position …

General Manager – Omar Minaya must go and the sooner the better. The new GM should be given the reins to rebuild this club with a two-year window. Boston fans are calling for Theo Epstein’s head on a platter after he choose to go to a concert rather than the recent Yankees-Sox game. I would take him in a heartbeat.

Manager – Bye Bye Jerry. Manuel has had almost two years to produce and has done nothing. Hiding behind Omar’s inability to put a squad together is no longer an excuse. Bobby V would be the ideal candidate but anyone not named Art Howe would be an improvement (Lou Pinella???). In typical Mets fashion, we probably end up with Howard Johnson and Wally Backman somewhere in the mix.

Catcher – There is nothing available in the 2010 free agent class that would be an improvement over Rod Barajas. Bring Josh Thole up after the All-Star Break and let him split time behind the plate with Rod. It will give us an idea whether he is ready for the bigs or whether we need to resign Barajas to an extension.

First Base – Lots of big names may be on the market but the Mets should focus their $$$ elsewhere. A combination of Ike Davis and Danny Murphy won’t hurt us here.

Second Base – Trade Luis Castillo now for whatever you can get for him. The Mets will need to fill this hole internally or accept another Alex Cora-type player going forward.

Shortstop – I know the consensus is to dump Jose Reyes, but he is the best option available. Take some of the pressure off him to carry the team and he will respond with an above-average glove and a spark at the top of the order. There are no better options available.

Third Base – David Wright needs to spend the offseason shackled to Lenny Dykstra. You're arguably the best player on the team … start acting like it and grow a pair.

Outfield – Give Carlos Beltran the rest of the season off to fully recover. Carl Crawford should be the Mets number one target during the offseason. Crawford, Beltran and Bay would be a nice outfield with Angel Pagan filling in where needed.

Starting Rotation – Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey stay. Bring up some of the younger arms to compete with Jon Niese down the stretch. There is a strong free agent class and the Mets need to land at least two stars regardless of the cost. John Maine will be gone after the season and Oliver Perez should be cut outright, regardless of what remains on his contract.

Bullpen – The one part of the team I wouldn’t change. Can it be improved? Yes, but the focus should be elsewhere unless something falls into our lap.

The Fans – The Wilpons should take out full page adds in every local paper apologizing to the Mets fan base, acknowledging that they have made mistakes and that the fans have been the biggest victim. They should do away with the current pricing plans, offer free parking days, and institute multiple fan appreciation days throughout the rest of the season. Season ticket holders should receive free seat upgrades to fill all those empty seats behind home plate that they could not sell because they were priced too high.

My response:

Omar's not going anywhere, especially with the draft coming up. He has until August 15 to make signings. By that time, the first trade deadline will have come and gone and the Mets should be far enough out of first place that the Wilpons will handcuff Minaya. Jerry will be fired mid-season, Bob Melvin will take over for the rest of the year and then there will be an open casting call in the off-season.

Thole is being exposed in Buffalo (.250/.312/.411). Barajas is the starter the rest of the season unless someone overpays. If he plays for $2 million next year, he's the 2011 starter as well. Davis and Wright aren't going anywhere and will remain the corner infielders. Reyes is your shortstop this year and next - if he doesn't produce then you look to trade him in July 2011. Second base is a black hole in the organization - trade Castillo yesterday and get a scrap heap veteran next year.

I'll say it again - Carlos Beltran's career is basically over. Bay is stuck in left field, so Crawford is not a viable option. The Mets need a CF and an RF (release Frenchie) so that Angel Pagan can go back to being a fourth outfielder. If Martinez ever learns to stay healthy, he'll be your right fielder.

Everyone knows what to do with the starters - let two journeymen fill it out after Santana-Pelfrey-Niese this season, sign someone else next season, have Mejia ready to be a starter in 2012. Send him down right now so he can work on secondary stuff.

As for Roy Oswalt (whose trade demand sparked the whole conversation): his contract is basically 2 years, $31 million, with a 2012 option for $16 million. The first major stumbling block is that the Mets simply will not take on that entire salary. My guess? The Astros would have to send the Mets at least $15 million in any deal. The Wilpons will pay for Oswalt at Joel Pineiro prices, but not at full price.

So now, you have to entice the Astros to move Oswalt AND $15 million. You have to start with Reyes now, add Niese, then add two cost-controlled, high ceiling minor league players. Would Houston consider Reyes, Niese, Jenrry Mejia and Fernando Martinez? I think so. I don't think the Mets can get Oswalt for anything less.

The Ideal #2 Hitter

2010-05-17T13:04:00.004-04:00

If I could choose one player as the embodiment of the ideal #2 hitter, it would be Bobby Abreu.

I've been arguing with T-Bone in the comments section about the nature of #2 hitters recently, and that debate dovetails nicely with the back-and-forth I've been having with Fish about the merits of Bobby Abreu. Fish is - to put it charitably - not a numbers guy. He dismisses Abreu as "soft," a ridiculous rap considering that Abreu has played in at least 150 games in each of the last 12 seasons.

I consider Abreu a borderline Hall of Famer, who has probably reached the stage of his career where he simply needs 3 or 4 average seasons to place himself squarely in the argument. Consider this - if Abreu plays three more seasons and his numbers do not plummet, he will finish with an approximate line of .290/.395/.480 with over 2,500 hits, close to 1,500 runs scored and RBI and nearly 400 stolen bases. (I don't care much about runs scored and the RBI, but Hall of Fame voters tend to consider them.)

In this jacked-up era of huge home run hitters (Fish's words), Bobby Abreu has done everything else offensively at a very high level for well over a decade. He hits for average. He steals bases. He piles up walks. He hits 35-40 doubles a year like clockwork. He is Paul O'Neill with speed and without the maturity issues.

The attributes I've listed above are almost exactly the attributes that the ideal #2 hitter should have. Forget this garbage about guys who "put the ball in play" or "know how to move the runner over." That's a nice way of saying, "he makes a lot of outs, but at least he does it in a way that the casual fan can be deluded into thinking is meaningful."

I want a #2 hitter who can give me a .300/.400/.500 season. I want a #2 hitter who hits 40 doubles and steals 30 bases. I want a #2 hitter who walks 100 times a year. Those guys are stars - and I want to bat those guys as high in the order as possible.

EDIT: I sometimes re-write my posts for Mack's Mets, especially if I can find a slightly different twist for his much, much larger audience to enjoy. (I average about 15 visits a day at the blog; Mack gets over 1,100). You can find Version 2.0 of this post here.

A New Look Lineup

2010-05-15T18:55:00.005-04:00

Oliver Perez is out of the rotation? Check. Jose Reyes is back in the leadoff spot? Check. Angel Pagan is batting third tonight? Now, hold on for just a minute ...

This really shouldn't be so difficult. You have to make the best of a bad situation, and only one lineup really makes sense for the Mets, considering that Carlos Beltran is never coming back, the right fielder and the catcher cannot hit and the second baseman has less punch than a flyweight.

Reyes
Pagan
Wright
Bay
Davis
Francouer
Barajas
Castillo

That's it. Jose likes hitting leadoff? Fine, leave him there. The problem is the complete lack of understanding that Luis Castillo's skill set best suits him for the #8 spot, not the #2 spot. He has a .290 slugging percentage, for God's sake. I don't have a problem with station-to-station baseball, as long as the batter in question will hit 20 to 30 home runs a year. I do have a problem with station-to-station baseball when the best the batter can do is slap singles or hope that the pitcher throws four balls out of strike zone.

I want fewer at-bats for Luis Castillo, not more. Castillo can serve as a "lead-off hitter" from the #8 spot and let the pitchers work on getting him in scoring position via the sacrifice. If you think that's a stupid idea, ask yourself why you think it's a good idea for #2 hitters to be "contact hitters" who "get the runner over." An out is an out, my friends - best to purposely commit one as few times as possible.

Pagan can bat second; he may get on base a little less often than Castillo, but will hit the ball harder and advance Reyes further when he does. I know David Wright is striking out too often, but he's also leading the league in walks and is on pace for a 30-30 season despite his struggles. The Mets got Jason Bay to hit like a cleanup hitter - the back of his baseball card says he'll start doing so before the end of the season.

After that, you fill the 5-6-7 holes in order of quality remaining. Ike Davis is clearly better than Francouer and Barajas and you need a left-handed bat to break up the string of righties. It is a testament to how bad a hitter Rod Barajas is that I think Jeff Francouer should be batting ahead of him in an ideal lineup. If Gary Matthews was a competent baseball player, I'd bat him sixth and use Frenchie as a defensive replacement. He isn't, so I won't.

Oliver Perez

2010-05-15T10:19:00.002-04:00

Oliver Perez has made 21 starts over two seasons since signing a 3-year, $36 million free agent contract with the Mets. There's no point in going over old ground in detail, other than to say that at the time Perez had no other suitors willing to meet the price tag that Perez's agent Scott Boras had put on him. The Mets surely overpaid to get him, because Omar Minaya had no one in the minor leagues ready to take a regular turn in the rotation and he did not see another alternative in the free agent starting pitching market.

Here are the results:
21 starts, 99.3 innings (less than 5 innings per start), 105 hits, 86 walks (1.923 WHIP), 6.53 ERA

The Mets made a terrible mistake with Oliver Perez. The money is guaranteed, so it's as good as spent. Release him today, and when he clears waivers send him down to Buffalo and give him a regular turn in the rotation. When he gets there, just leave him alone - Perez will never succeed if you try to alter his pitching motion or if you try to convince him to repeat the same motion over and over again.

Perez is a rare breed of pitcher, one who simply cannot pitch like everyone else. He wants to use multiple arm angles and multiple pitching motions on the mound, however foolish that may be. He will always be inconsistent because of it, but he will be downright terrible if you don't let him do it this way.

Jeff Francouer

2010-05-13T11:03:00.002-04:00

Frenchie's stat line on April 12 (6 games): .476/.538/1.000
Frenchie's stat line since (28 games): .184/.245/.276

How many more times are baseball fans going to be fooled by Jeff Francouer?

Chris Carter is Coming!

2010-05-11T09:07:00.006-04:00

Chris Carter has finally been liberated from the shackles of the International League. The Mets pulled the plug on Frank Catalanotto last night, releasing the veteran pinch-hitter and calling up Carter to take his spot on the roster.

Carter had been tattooing Triple-A pitching, putting up a .336/.390/.611 line with 17 extra-base hits (including 6 home runs) in 29 games. Cats had been terrible in New York; he was sent up as a pinch-hitter in 24 of the 25 games he made an appearance in and went just 3 for 22 with one extra-base hit in that role. Pinch-hitters who can't hit, can't run and can't play the field are about as useless as one can get.

For now, one would presume that Carter will also primarily be limited to pinch-hitting duty, as his defense can only charitably be described as terrible. West Side Ed puts Carter squarely in the Adam Dunn realm of awfulness on the field; I'm hoping he will merely be bad during the occasional starts he gets at first base or the corner outfield positions.

This is another positive sign from a franchise that has always been far too reliant on veteran influence, even when the on-field production is lacking. Carter is a finished product - he has spent parts of the last five seasons in Triple-A - so there was no reason to hold him back any longer. Cats has been useless, and his presence on the roster at the expense of Jacobs was starting to become embarrassing.

The Mets mercifully put an end to the Mike Jacobs fiasco after two weeks and have been rewarded by the play of Ike Davis, who has certainly held his own so far. I don't think Carter will have quite the same impact, but I can see him providing a decent bat at the league minimum and playing his way into trade bait for an American League team looking for a cheap DH.

Dallas Braden

2010-05-10T09:58:00.002-04:00

Hats off to Dallas Braden, who pitched a perfect game yesterday. Braden, you may remember, is the Oakland A's starter who got all huffy because Alex Rodriguez walked across the pitcher's mound while returning to first base after a foul ball earlier this season. Frankly, I thought his reaction was immature and childish, so 27 up and 27 down is certainly a better way to be remembered.

Angst and I had a debate about this via text message yesterday, but for the record I will say that I've been watching baseball for 30 years and never heard a word about runners having to avoid the pitcher's mound at all times. Baseball, it sometimes seems, has more unwritten rules than written ones. But this one struck me as a stretch right from the beginning, the kind of thing a prickly kid with limited major league success should probably just shut his yap about.

Braden did not, yelling at A-Rod after he walked by and adding plenty of pointed comments in post-game interviews. I know it's good sport to mock Alex Rodriguez and to blame him for just about everything except the Chicago fire. Something tells me that if it had been Derek Jeter running across the mound instead, the press would be hailing the wily veteran for trying to get the immature hot-head off his game and for doing whatever it takes to win. Perception breeds reality, I guess.

Anyway, what struck me today as I looked at the boxscore for Braden's perfecto is that his WPA for the game was only 0.36. I will say that I am only passingly familiar with advanced baseball metrics, so it is entirely possible that I do not understand how Win Probability Added works. Wikipedia defined the stat as an attempt to measure a player's contribution to a win by figuring the factor by which each specific play made by that player has altered the outcome of a game.

WPA appears to work in whole numbers, so it would seem that a 0.36 WPA means that Braden contributed to 36 percent of Oakland's win yesterday. This seems rather low, considering that Braden retired all 27 batters that faced him.

I assume that WPA takes into account that Braden only struck out six batters, which means the other 21 outs were recorded by fielders on ground balls or fly outs. It must also take into account that Braden, as an American League pitcher, did not bat and therefore was not responsible for any of the team's offense that day.

It's just interesting to see that, according to WPA, even pitching a perfect game won't earn a pitcher "credit" for even half of his team's victory that day.

Another Feather in Omar's Cap

2010-05-04T09:42:00.002-04:00

From MetsBlog: According to the Mets, Kelvim Escobar will undergo surgery to repair a torn capsule in the front of his right shoulder, and is expected to miss the rest of this season.

Who would have seen that coming? Hmmm ...

Yesterday I wrote about the bench, and how the Mets could've saved approximately $2.3 million by simply replacing Alex Cora, Fernando Tatis and Frank Catalanotto with three players making the league minimum. (I suggest Russ Adams/Andy Green, Mike Hessman and Chris Carter, in that order.) Add the $1.25 million in guaranteed money for Escobar and the tally of completely wasted salary exceeds $3.5 million.

The Worst Bench in Baseball

2010-05-03T11:42:00.003-04:00

Alex Cora (34): .162/.262/.243
Fernando Tatis (35): .212/.257/.364
Henry Blanco (38): .227/.296/.318
Gary Matthews (35): .139/.244/1.94
Frank Catalanotto (36): .143/.182/.190

Blanco gets a pass, because he's a defensive catcher and is nearly out-hitting Rod Barajas anyway. The other four guys are a dismal combination of age and incompetence; if any of the four were released today, I find it hard to believe that any other team would pick them up.

Catalanotto is the easiest to replace - just release him and call up Chris Carter from Buffalo right now. Cats never gets in the field anyway; he's been a pinch-hitter in 19 of the 20 games he's appeared in this season. If the Mets are that worried about Carter's defense, just give him the Rusty Staub role and let him pinch-hit.

Matthews is signed for next year at a cost of $1 million; his production could easily be replaced by a Rule V-caliber defensive outfielder/pinch-runner. Cora has a vesting option that just about everyone in the Mets organization (except maybe Omar Minaya!) is hoping will not be exercised. Release him now, before Jose Reyes or Luis Castillo gets injured and Cora plays his way onto the 2011 team.

Where Has Jack Been?

2010-05-01T10:22:00.004-04:00

Here's the obvious question - why haven't I been posting more?

The Mets have won eight straight games since The Franchise and I sat in box seats* and watched the Cubbies deal the home team their only loss in a 10-game swing at New Shea. (Yes, I called it New Shea. I will never refer to the corporate sellout name if there is an alternative. When I'm angry at the Mets, it's Ebbets Field North. When I'm happy with the Mets, it's New Shea.)

* I'm biting** Joe Posnanski's style here, but do baseball fans really know what "box seats" are? I've always used the term to refer to any seats in the Field Level, but I suspect that there is a more specific meaning that I am unaware of.

** When you were a kid, did you use the term "biting" when you thought someone else was being a copycat? (The asterisks could go on all day, but I'm pretty sure everyone used the term "copycat" in their lives.) I remember that in Broad Channel, it was thrown around very loosely - to the point that if you were wearing a blue shirt and someone else was wearing a blue shirt, you may find yourself accused of biting off them.

My new favorite term for that behavior is "swagger jacking." As in, "Did you see how Tim Walsh started posting content at Flushing University after I did? That boy is nothing but a swagger jacker."

So why haven't I been posting more? Mack called me out at Mack's Mets the other day and I immediately started a "State of the Mets" piece so I that could have some new content, but I ran out of material before I got through the relievers. I just lost the patience to get through another long-form post and abandoned the project.

The Mets are in first place, they beat up on the Phillies last night and they are turning heads in the National League. So why am I not posting more?

Complacency, I guess. It's hard to rail against a team that's won 10 of 11 games. I think that I've set myself up as a contrarian voice against what remains a wildly mismanaged franchise, but that voice rings hollow when the team is winning.

As a writer, I have become a pathological second-guesser. Too much time is spent focusing on what is wrong and not enough on what is right. And right now, the Mets are right.

Of course Jenrry Mejia should be in Double-A and working on secondary pitches. But he dominated the eighth inning last night even if the Mets already had an seven-run lead. It's obvious that Frank Catalanotto should be unemployed right now instead of doing his worst Marlon Anderson imitation. It's clear that Carlos Beltran's career may be over and the team's mismanagement of a very serious injury may have contributed to that.

But, Mets fan, what do you care? The Mets are in first place. Ike Davis looks like a keeper. Mike Pelfrey looks like a #2 starter. Jon Niese looks like he will be a legitimate #3 starter once he gains a little more experience. Jeff Francouer, God save us all, is hitting.

The shrill voice of logic and reason can always be drowned out when, in the moment, it *looks* like everything is going right. I've been drowning that voice out myself - and that's why I've had very little to say.

EDIT: I have to give credit to Greg Prince at Faith and Fear in Flushing, whose own experience I swagger jacked to write this post. His piece about finding his religion in the Arctic cold of Tuesday's doubleheader spurred me to write this one.

Payroll

2010-04-21T11:25:00.003-04:00

Cots Contracts is one of the most important baseball sites on the Internet, because it charts the contracts of every player on a team's 40-man roster as well as select minor-league contracts. Cots has the Mets' Opening Day payroll at $126,498,096 in 2010 - a reduction of nearly $23 million from last season.

Not much has been made of the actual numbers, which I find curious. This is the same organization getting $20 million a year in found money from Citi to put its name on the marquee at Ebbets Field North, which only opened last year. One would think that there would've been enough money to increase payroll from 2009, and certainly no reason to reduce it.

That's where Forbes comes in. Forbes does an annual "Business of Baseball" study on franchise values and revenue. (The great Joe Posnanski has a wonderful article about this on his blog.) The authors of the Forbes article pulled no punches when it comes to the state of the Mets.

[T]ake a look at the Mets, the Yankees' cross-town rivals, who also moved into a new ballpark last season. The Mets fell 6% in value and are now worth $858 million, third on our list. The Mets saw a big jump in stadium sponsorships and premium seating revenue at Citi Field, but all is not well in the borough of Queens.

We lowered our valuation of the franchise because the team has stumbled badly on the field, and rank-and-file fans are disgusted with management. The Mets won only 70 games last season, their worst showing since 2003. In response the Mets cut the average ticket price more than 10% for the 2010 season. Even with the cuts the Mets will not match last season's attendance of 3.2 million fans. Stadium revenues are likely to decline more than $20 million in 2010.

Jacobs Out, Davis In?

2010-04-19T10:28:00.002-04:00

Mike Jacobs was designated for assignment before Sunday's game against the Cardinals, probably putting an end to his second go-round as a Met. How many teams wind up releasing their Opening Day cleanup hitter just two weeks into the season? Only the Mets.

It was never going to work here with Jacobs, a left-handed slugger who has never walked enough or made enough contact to justify his power potential. Kansas City General Manager Dayton Moore is no genius, but the general rule of thumb is that when you are released by the Royals, you don't belong in someone else's starting lineup!

The Mets already had two better options in Triple-A (Chris Carter and Ike Davis) and both players out-hit Jacobs in Spring Training. The fact that Jacobs got the job anyway is just one more reminder that the Little Jeffy-Omar-Jerry brain trust does nothing to inspire confidence in this team's present or future.

The buzz about Davis's promotion is already well underway, although nothing official has been announced yet. I am a little concerned that Davis is being rushed - he's off to a great start in Buffalo, but has only had 42 at-bats at Triple-A. Carter is off to a good start as well and would be a better place-holder until Dan Murphy comes off the disabled list

If Davis struggles, he's going back to Buffalo when Murphy returns and some of that "top prospect" shine will be off him. If he holds his own, it may push Murphy into the utility player role he is destined for. Murphy would be a logical replacement for Frank Catalonotto, who brings nothing useful to this team.

One More Thing ...

2010-04-18T00:23:00.002-04:00

Ubaldo Jimenez pitched a no-hitter tonight. If you didn't know who he was before tonight, you should know that Colorado has a burgeoning star in Jimenez. He should be a top of the rotation workhorse for years to come.

It wasn't the most beautiful of performances - Jimenez walked six batters and threw 129 pitches to finally complete the first no-hitter in Rockies' history. Hopefully he will make it through his next start without his arm falling off. (/sarcasm)

Bullpen Mismanagement

2010-04-17T23:55:00.002-04:00

(This is the post I started writing in the 10th inning of tonight's game and gave up on once the 17th inning rolled around. I cleaned it up a bit, just to make it flow logically.)

My complaint about tonight's game is only an indirect knock at Jerry Manuel, who can't entirely be blamed for his startling inability to understand leverage and how to properly use a bullpen. The fact is, no manager in modern baseball has been able to break away from the established orthodoxy of how to deploy their relief corps.

The sheer lunacy of bullpen mismanagement at baseball's highest level was on display again today, starting in the 10th inning of a scoreless game in St. Louis. The Cardinals had two base runners with two outs and the incomparable Albert Pujols coming to bat. Manuel was not going to let Pujols face the lefty Pedro Feliciano, so he had a choice to make - which right-handed reliever to use?

Francisco Rodriguez is considered the best right-handed reliever on the team, both in terms of reputation and contract. He was rested, having last pitched the meaningless final inning in the Mets' 5-0 win on Thursday night. K-Rod (despite having a declining K rate every year since 2004) is still a strikeout pitcher, and the Mets absolutely needed a pitcher who could limit Pujols's ability to make contact.

Jerry Manuel chose Fernando Nieve instead. Nieve had already pitched in seven of the Mets' first 10 games, including two batters during a disastrous seventh inning the previous night. He is not nearly as good as K-Rod, even if Rodriguez is one of the more overrated relievers in professional baseball.

The difference, of course, is that K-Rod is the "closer." The closer is that rare breed of reliever - the man who can only pitch when the conditions are just right for him. He is supposed to be the best pitcher in the bullpen, even if he is only used in the most specialized of situations that do not always coincide with the most important ones.

Rodriguez's odds of getting Pujols out were significantly higher that Nieve's odds. Once Pujols was semi-intentionally walked, K-Rod's chances of getting Matt Holliday out were significantly higher than Nieve's. Manuel still chose Nieve. Holliday ended up popping out to first, ending the tenth inning and staving off defeat.

Incredibly, the same situation came up again in the 12th inning - two on, two out, and Pujols coming to the plate. Even more incredibly, Nieve was still in the game, having faced nine batters to that point. Perhaps even more incredibly, Nieve stayed in the game to walk Pujols and to face Jason Motte, the St. Louis pitcher.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa, apparently uninterested in taking advantage of the situation, inexplicably allowed his pitcher to bat even though he had a pinch-hitter left on the bench and two relievers left in his bullpen. Motte struck out on four pitches, ending the threat and Nieve's day at the same time.

Implausibly, nearly the exact same situation came up in the 14th inning! With second and third and nobody out, Hisanori Takahashi (who was called upon to replace Nieve instead of K-Rod) struck out the left-handed Skip Schumaker. Ryan Ludwick and Albert Pujols beckoned - would Manuel have K-Rod ready to replace Takahashi now?

He would not. Takahashi struck out Ludwick, intentionally walked Pujols and struck out reliever Blake Hawksworth. This decision defied all logic, as LaRussa STILL had a pinch-hitter on the bench and Ryan Franklin available in the bullpen. Why he still let Hawksworth walk to the plate in that situation is incomprehensible.

Takahashi had performed a minor miracle, getting out of the jam. He was pinch-hit for by Jon Niese in the top of the 15th - surely K-Rod would be coming in now, right? Wrong. Jenrry Mejia, a 20-year-old Double-A starter masquerading as a reliever, was called upon in the bottom the 15th inning of a scoreless game.

Let that one sink in for a minute. After 14 1/2 innings of scoreless baseball, the youngest player in the major leagues was being asked to keep the Mets alive instead of one of the highest-paid relievers in baseball.

Mejia pitched two scoreless innings, giving way to Mexican League graduate Raul Valdes in the 17th inning. By now, even La Russa had gotten around to using his closer; one wondered if perhaps the sight of Franklin might have reminded Manuel that it was appropriate to use K-Rod even if the save wasn't in order.

Instead, it was Valdes, who had given up a grand slam to Felipe Lopez the night before in his fifth MLB appearance. This was the man that Manuel entrusted with a game, more than five hours after the first pitch was thrown.

K-Rod stayed in the bullpen until the 19th inning, waiting for the all-important "save situation" to arrive so that he could finally come into the game. The closer makes $11.5 million a year, but the manager would not ask him to pitch unless the Mets took the lead.

Rodriguez promptly rewarded Manuel's "patience" by blowing the save and nearly blowing the game. If nothing else, it was just one more reminder that the closer "myth" is just that - a myth. Manuel's reluctance to pitch Rodriguez without the lead may have cost the Mets the game, all because modern managers still do not understand that if you hold back your best reliever for the save situation, you do nothing but increase your chances of losing the game.

Will anyone question Jerry Manuel as to why he chose to use four inferior relievers at the most critical junctures of the game? Doesn't anyone wonder why the back of the bullpen is entrusted with critical at-bats in extra innings, while the closer is pitching mop-up duty in 5-0 games?

No one will ask, because Jerry Manuel went by "the book" today. He's been going by the book all season, just like everyone else. And when you go by the book, you are immune from criticism, even if the book is just as wrong as it can be.

One For The Ages

2010-04-17T23:31:00.006-04:00

This was one of those games that you will talk about for years to come. Still, I can't help but come away thinking that this was the most poorly-managed game I have ever had the misfortune of watching.

Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa managed as though he had absolutely no intention of winning the game. He failed to pinch-hit for the pitcher in both the 12th and the 14th inning and he used two different position players for three innings of relief instead of using an off-day starter. St. Louis battled for 20 innings to overcome the mismanagement and the indifference of their field general, but in the end it was too much to overcome.

When I started writing approximately three hours ago, it was centered around Jerry Manuel's refusal to bring in Francisco Rodriguez sooner. Yes, conventional wisdom says to hold your closer back unless it's a save situation. Conventional wisdom is nothing more than the safe way to lose a baseball game.

K-Rod should've come in to pitch in the 10th, when Fernando Nieve found a way to escape the mess left for him by Pedro Feliciano. He should've come in to pitch in the 12th, when Nieve needed rescuing of his own. He should've come in to pitch in the 14th, when Hisanori Takahashi needed to be picked up.

Manuel stubbornly refused to use his best reliever time and time again, leaving the game in the hands of middle relievers who pitched heroically when put to the test. Finally, K-Rod was allowed to pitch in the 19th, when the Mets pushed a run across against Cardinals outfielder Joe Mather.

The top of the 19th also bore witness to the second-dumbest decision I've ever seen a manager make. Manuel actually asked Luis Castillo to sacrifice Jose Reyes into scoring position. A sacrifice bunt in the 19th inning with an outfielder on the mound and David Wright on deck is an unforgivably stupid play. The Cardinals, thankful for the gift of an easy out recorded by a pitcher who had never pitched professionally, promptly walked the Mets' best hitter and set up a double play against the struggling Jason Bay.

The Mets only ended up getting one run of the inning and would have lost in the bottom of the 19th if La Russa hadn't trumped Manuel and made the single dumbest decision I've ever seen any manager make. How on Earth can Ryan Ludwick be allowed to steal with Albert Pujols at the plate?

It was a miracle that Pujols didn't homer off K-Rod later in the at-bat; was there any doubt he was going to hit the ball a mile in that situation? Ludwick should have still been on base to score off the Pujols double. Pujols then would've scored the winning run on the Yadier Molina single with two outs.

Once the maddening hysteria of seeing K-Rod fail to close out the game after being held back for 18 innings wore off, I realized one essential truth. I cannot allow my beautiful little niece, just 16 months old, to grow up a Mets fan.

Seriously. Look at that face. How can I subject her to the torture that would come with life as a Mets fan?

Then it was the bottom of the 20th, and the Mets had pushed across one more run against Mather. K-Rod's arm and his ego were apparently too fragile to pitch a second inning, even though the six previous Met relievers had recorded at least four outs in this epic. Enter Mike Pelfrey, who had pitched seven dominant innings in Colorado on Thursday and was being asked to hold the Cardinals at bay one final time.

He didn't make it easy, putting two men on base after dispatching of the first two batters of the inning, but he did it. One wonders if La Russa slapped his head in amazement - who knew that a starting pitcher could take the mound on his throw day and pitch more effectively than two position players?

The Mets are 4-7 now, having wrested away what will likely be the signature win of the season for them. They didn't win this game, so much as La Russa and the Cardinals lost it. Nevertheless, it will take its place in the annals of Mets history, a game sure to be referenced in future extra-inning epics and laughingly recalled in those moments where it appears the game at hand may never end.

What will hopefully be forgotten is just how much the poor decisions of both managers contributed to the incredible length of the game.

Thought of the Day

2010-04-15T10:53:00.002-04:00

I am 33 years old. Since I have been walking the planet, there have already been four distinct periods where the New York Mets have arguably been the biggest laughingstock of baseball.

*1977-83, a seven-year period where the Mets never finished higher than fifth place in a six-team National League East
* 1992-1993, The Worst Team Money Could Buy.
* 2003-04, also known as the Art Howe years
* September 2007 to right now and the foreseeable future

Stubbornness

2010-04-15T09:18:00.003-04:00

No knock on Jenrry Mejia here, because he doesn't belong in the big leagues anyway. At what point will Omar Minaya admit it was stupid to listen to Jerry Manuel on this one and send Mejia back to Binghamton? Apparently, stupid is as stupid does.

Collateral Danage

2010-04-11T14:59:00.003-04:00

At around this time last season, Omar Minaya's poor roster management skills led the Mets to designate Darren O'Day for assignment in order to make room for a spot start from Nelson Figueroa. (Remember him?) O'Day quickly signed with the Texas Rangers and pitched over 50 high-quality innings out of their bullpen. The Mets ... well, let's just say the Mets could've used someone pitching as well as O'Day in the bullpen last year.

This year, Omar Minaya's poor roster management skills led the Mets to give Kelvim Escobar a guaranteed $1.25 million and a spot on the 40-man roster. Unfortunately, most baseball people already knew that Escobar's arm was completely shot and that he may never pitch another inning in Major League Baseball. Some people have been quick to dismiss the Escobar fiasco as a worthwhile risk, one that has only cost the Mets some money.

That's not entirely true, of course. Escobar's roster spot has already come at the expense of a promising young reliever with an arm that actually works. Once Sean Green was placed on the disabled list yesterday, the Mets were forced to designate Clint Everts for assignment in order to make room for Raul Valdes.

Everts, you may remember, is a former first-round draft pick that was drafted by Minaya when he was mismanaging the dearly departed Montreal Expos in 2002. The high-school fireballer never worked out as a professional starter, but was dominant across three levels in the Washington minor-league system in 2009.

Still only 25, Everts has enough time to produce a few effective seasons out of a major league bullpen if given the chance to do so. That chance may not be available in Queens now. Everts will have to pass through waivers before the Mets can give him the ball again at Double-A Binghamton, where he was assigned out of Spring Training.

Will the decision to release Clint Everts turn out as poorly as the decision to release Darren O'Day? It's obviously too soon to tell. But I would rather have a 25-year-old reliever with a live arm and success in the minors last season over a 34-year-old reliever who has thrown 26 professional innings in the last two years and may never pitch again.

Jenrry Mejia

2010-04-06T12:34:00.002-04:00

From MetsBlog, talking about Josh Beckett's contract extension: "…it’s pretty clear, if you want an ace, or a ‘legit No. 2,’ a team must either trade top prospects to bring him in, or develop him on their own…"

At a time when Jenrry Mejia should be donning a Binghamton Mets jersey and preparing for his Opening Day assignment against Akron on Thursday, he is instead in the back of Jerry Manuel's bullpen having his development stunted.

Relievers are made, not born. It's an old-school way of thinking, but I truly believe that every pitcher should be given an opportunity to fail as a starter before being converted into a reliever. By pre-emptively putting Mejia in the bullpen based on 15 Spring Training innings, the Mets are crippling his potential to develop secondary pitches and to blossom into a top-flight starter.

Opening Day Review

2010-04-06T12:02:00.002-04:00

First and foremost, I didn't actually go to the game. I spent it at McFadden's with Rockstar, Dr. S. and a guy who apparently stapled his own ear at some point in the evening. (I was not there to confirm this, but Rockstar's word is good and so I say "bravo" to you, John.)

Oh, you haven't heard of McFadden's yet? My first inclination is to say "good - let's keep it that way." The bar was crowded enough once the game ended, a sign that it is going to be a very popular venue for Mets fans. During the game itself the place was only about half-full, which only means that there were still a good 200 people on the premises. McFadden's only got their liquor license at 9 am that morning, so it was all beer until about the sixth inning when the booze truck rolled in. You would've thought David Wright had just hit a second opposite-field home run, such was the roar that came up from the crowd.

The bar is still undecorated, which I imagine will change in the very near future. The bartenders and the waitresses were rather scantily clad, which judging by the reaction of the overwhelmingly male crowd, is unlikely to change anytime soon. Perhaps the highlight of the day came when we were able to take advantage of one staffer's ignorance regarding Mets' history to cajole four Field Level tickets to the April 21 tilt against the Cubs.

The bar was giving away tickets every couple of innings to people who could answer ridiculously easy questions about Mets history. We were among four people who, when standing by the DJ booth, shouted out "1962" when asked the year that the Mets first joined the National League. The tiebreaker was this question - "who pitched the last perfect game in Mets history."

Rockstar and I looked at each other in amazement - could this guy really not know that the Mets have never even had a no-hitter, let alone a perfect game? One of the other vultures shouted out something unintelligible, which the DJ apparently took to be Mets knowledge unposessed by the rest of us. He gave the guy two tickets and tried to go back to his laptop. Once we pointed out the error in his ways, the DJ had no choice but to hand us each a ticket to the Cubs game. Two hours later, Rockstar successfully shamed him into giving us two more.

All in all, it was a good day - one that also included a Miss Met sighting and a surprising encounter with a guy I haven't seen since we graduated from St. Virgilius in 1990. I expect that I'll be visiting McFadden's again soon. (Perhaps as soon as this Friday, when I watch the Mets and the Nationals from the Promenade Club seats.)

Failing grades go to Angst, T-Bone and the Jersey Pirate, all of whom declined to hang out with the boys and either stayed home or stayed at work instead. You are all lame and none of you are invited to see the Cubs on April 21.

Opening Day!!

2010-04-05T11:53:00.003-04:00

Yes, I know I've been the voice of doom and gloom on the infrequent occasions I've posted this off-season. Yes, the Mets are AT BEST a 78-win team even if everyone stays healthy - and they have the potential to be much, much worse if Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright or Jose Reyes miss any time with injuries.

That doesn't matter today. Today is one of the best days of the year, and perhaps the last time in 2010 that the Mets won't be below .500. Put on your favorite jersey, grab a beer and root, root, root for the home team. There will be 161 more chances to weep at the futility on the field and the stupidity in the front office.

Final thoughts on the 25-man roster:

* Starting pitching: a potential disaster area. Santana will be fine, although I think his days of true dominance are over. Oliver Perez and John Maine are both a mess. Mike Pelfrey is the second coming of Jon Rauch - put him in the bullpen and he'll be reliably mediocre for another 10 years. A good season from Jon Niese would put some lipstick on this pig - I happen to think that he can be a reliable #4 starter at the MLB level.

* Relief pitching: The Mets' handling of Jenrry Mejia has been borderline criminal. He belongs in Binghamton learning how to be a top-of-the rotation starter. The Mets are stunting his development in every way imaginable - and there's simply no reason for it to happen. I weep for the future of this franchise. The rest of the pen is mediocre - including the closer, whose peripherals have been in a steady decline for several years now. One smart move - Pedro Feliciano as the "eighth-inning guy." He's been miscast as a specialist.

* Catching: Rod Barajas and Henry Blanco. Sigh.

* Infield: David Wright and Jose Reyes are still superstars (as long as they are healthy). Castillo would be a very good #8 hitter on a good team. He's tolerable as a #2 hitter on this team for as long as he keeps his walk rate up. Mike Jacobs at first base is simply embarrassing. Chris Carter should've gotten the nod while Daniel Murphy was on the DL, but I guess an .893 SLG in Spring Training wasn't good enough to unseat a "veteran" with two straight years with a sub-.300 OBP. Why isn't Ruben Tejada starting at shortstop while Reyes is on the DL?

* Outfield: Beltran's absence is crushing. Jason Bay will be fine - he's no great shakes defensively, but he has power and patience at the plate, with just enough speed to sneak a base when the pitcher isn't paying attention. Jeff Francouer will fit right in with the bottom half of this lineup - another guy swinging for the fences and grounding out weakly to shortstop when he makes contact. The Angel Pagan vs. Gary Matthews debate is hilarious - Pagan is a fourth outfielder and Matthews is a fifth outfielder. Both belong on the bench.

Another Vote for a Three-League Realignment

2010-03-29T10:34:00.002-04:00

Evan Weiner over at the Daily Caller also ponders a realignment plan involving three divisions. His perspective is somewhat different than mine - an 8-8-14 split instead of 10-10-10 and no promotion/relegation aspect, but it's good to see someone else thinking along the same lines.

I will have three more parts to my realignment plan in the coming days. Opening Day is about two weeks away, so I'll try to get back into writing more.

EDIT: Didn't read closely enough. He does suggest some promotion/relegation aspects. Just read the whole article more closely than I did.

Realignment, Part 2

2010-03-18T19:25:00.004-04:00

OK, so the Mets have been relegated and now they are the front-runners for the Federal League East division title in 2010. They'll make the playoffs if they finish ahead of the other also-rans, and they'll earn themselves a trip back to the National League in the process. First things first - who are they going to be playing this season?

As it turns out, the schedule for teams in the American League, the National League and the Federal League would all be the same. Get ready for multiple visits from Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Washington - you'll be seeing a lot of them at Citi Field this season. Teams would play 16 games against the teams in their own division (64 games) and 6 games against teams from the other division in their league (30 games).

Interleague play has become a staple of the modern game, so we are going to have to keep it on our schedule. The Mets will play 6 games against the National League East this year, and round out the schedule with 6 games against the American League West. The sad sacks in the Federal League West will play a reverse schedule, with 6 against the AL East and 6 against the NL West. The divisions will swap back and forth each year, ensuring that the Mets will play every team in baseball on at least a bi-annual basis.

16 games against Federal League East: 64 games
6 games against Federal League West: 30 games
6 games against National League East: 30 games
6 games against American League West: 30 games = 154 games

Yes, we're going back to the 154-game schedule, to make room for three full playoff series. (More on that next time.) The owners will have to give up four home dates and that silly rivalry series that unbalances the schedule each year. The payback will be in the modified revenue sharing plan that will keep the lion's share of money between the teams in the American and National League. The teams in the two top flights will stay richer and won't be sharing as much money with the weak sisters of the Federal League.

On October 4, 2010, eight teams will be left standing. These teams - three from the American League, three from the National League and two from the Federal League - will compete for the right to go to the World Series.

Realignment, Part 1

2010-03-16T19:05:00.002-04:00

Angst turned me on to Tom Verducci's article about a radical realignment plan allegedly being considered by Major League Baseball to address some of the financial imbalances between the richest and poorest clubs.

"Floating realignment," as Verducci dubbed it, is a ridiculous idea. I am glad that MLB is thinking outside the box to address the current set-up, in part because it means that the commissioner's office isn't hellbent on instituting a salary cap. That said, floating realignment strikes me as a half-assed way of instituting a promotion/relegation system similar to professional soccer leagues around the world.

Promotion and relegation is simple in that it rewards the best teams and punishes the worst ones. In the current economic climate, where the richest clubs dwarf the earning power of nearly everyone else, it serves to separate the proverbial wheat from the chaff.

The top league generally houses the richest clubs and a few plucky underdogs who work their way up from a lower division to take on the big boys. Sometimes, those underdogs find sustained success against the big boys and turn into a giant themselves. (Pittsburgh Pirates fans, pick up a copy of Soccernomics and dream of the day where your club becomes the next Olympique Lyon or Nottingham Forest.)

Of course, you simply cannot faithfully replicate the soccer system in MLB, because minor league teams are feeder clubs and not aspiring top-level baseball organizations. However, if you can create a plan to shuffle the 30 clubs in a way that separates the most successful teams from the minnows - while still giving the poorest clubs a chance to make the playoffs every season - you can address the current imbalance without overly compromising traditional structures.

My basic plan: three 10-team leagues, separated into two divisions each, initially stocked based on regular-season records from the previous season. Both the American League and the National League would still exist and would consist of 10 "traditional" clubs, split into two five-team divisions with geographical considerations. (I am somewhat arbitrarily defining "traditional" as any team created before 1977 or any team that hasn't re-located since 1969.) The 10 highest finishers from the previous season get to start the subsequent season in the same league.

The third league (I like calling it the Federal League in honor of the short-lived circuit from approximately 100 years ago), would initially be populated by the worst 10 records in the league from the previous season. They, too, what be split into two five-team geographical divisions, without regard to their previous league affiliations.

If this plan were to be implemented in time for the 2010 season, this is what the leagues would look like:

American League East
Yankees
Red Sox
Rays
White Sox
Blue Jays

American League West
Angels
Rangers
Twins
Tigers
Mariners

National League East
Phillies
Cardinals
Marlins
Braves
Reds

National League West
Dodgers
Rockies
Giants
Brewers
Cubs

Federal League East
Indians
Orioles
Mets
Pirates
Nationals

Federal League West
Diamondbacks
A's
Padres
Astros
Royals

That's right, fellow Mets fans - our team would be competing for the Federal League East title in 2010!

I expect that, after 5 to 10 years, the lower-revenue teams and the perennial losers would find themselves spending most of their time in the Federal League. They would be joined by a few big clubs stumbling on hard times or with incompetent ownership groups (read: the Mets).

The difference between this structure and a traditional promotion/relegation set-up is that two Federal League teams would make the playoffs every season and have a puncher's chance at winning the World Series. I don't know of any other system out there that gives the likes of the Pirates and the Royals a legitimate playoff shot every season.

Roster Moves: The First Cut Is The Deepest

2010-03-15T13:53:00.002-04:00

Hat tip, Adam Rubin. No real surprises here - I thought Clint Everts might get more of a shot at the major-league bullpen, but everyone on this list belongs in the minor leagues right now.

Ruben Tejada

2010-03-13T11:53:00.002-05:00

With Jose Reyes on the shelf because of a thyroid problem, the Mets are suddenly in the position of figuring out who the Opening Day shortstop is going to be. (Does the circus ever leave town when you are a Mets fan?)

Alex Cora was signed to be the backup middle infielder and would seem to be the logical candidate to hold down the fort, but he is not particularly good at the game of baseball. There has also been some talk about giving 20-year-old prospect Ruben Tejada the job, since Reyes is not expected to miss more than a month or so.

I don't mind giving Tejada a chance, mostly because I'm curious to see how overmatched he will be. That sounds counter-intuitive, of course - no one seriously wants to see a young prospect fail at the major league level. Tejada is a little different. He has been young for every level he's played at anyway, and with Reyes signed for two more years, no one is seriously looking at him as an option until 2012. It doesn't seem that his standing in the organization would be damaged if he stumbles in April.

There was an interesting take on Tejada in Baseball Prospectus, which suggests that he has already reached his ceiling as a professional and that his development wouldn't be harmed by early exposure to National League pitching. This seems curious - when do you ever see a 20-year-old prospect with little to no room for future development? - but it also suggests that Tejada won't perform significantly worse than Cora anyway.

Tejada held his own during his Age 19 season, with a .289/.351/.381 line and 19 steals in Double-A Binghamton. Ideally, he would spend this season there again in 2010, but I have a feeling that he will be ticketed for Buffalo instead. I don't think that he is ready to play regularly at the Major League level, but 100 at-bats there may give the organization an indication of whether or not he is ready to handle Triple-A.

Roster Projections - New York, Buffalo, Binghamton

2010-03-07T14:28:00.003-05:00

Opening Day is still a month away, so I'm not ready to make any serious projections yet. My goal is to spend the upcoming weeks looking at the players who are assured of going north with the Mets when camp breaks. The last week or so will be dedicated to the players fighting for the few open spaces on the roster (SP5, RP 6 and 7, one or two bench spots).

For now, here's a basic breakdown of the players on the 40-man roster, as well as the non-roster invitees, who are at Port St. Lucie right now. This is my best guess as for who is going where, as well as the players who will open the season on the disabled list. One note: A lot of the NRIs are going to be released before the season starts and will not actually end up in Buffalo. I'm not going to speculate too much on that; you can assume that any NRI who I've placed in Buffalo is almost equally likely to be released (especially if they have previous MLB experience).

Queens
SP - Johan Santana
SP - Oliver Perez
SP - John Maine
SP - Mike Pelfrey
SP - Jon Niese
RP - Francisco Rodriguez
RP - Sean Green
RP - Pedro Feliciano
RP - Ryota Igarshi
RP - Hisanori Takahashi
RP - Kiko Calero
RP - Bobby Parnell
C- Rod Barajas
1B- Daniel Murphy
2B- Luis Castillo
3B- David Wright
SS- Jose Reyes
LF- Jason Bay
CF- Angel Pagan
RF- Jeff Francouer
C- Henry Blanco
BN- Alex Cora
BN- Fernando Tatis
BN- Mike Jacobs
BN- Gary Matthews

Buffalo
SP - Nelson Figueroa
SP - Pat Misch
SP - Fernando Nieve
SP - Josh Fogg
RP - Jack Egbert
RP - Clint Everts
RP - Eddie Kunz
RP - Tobi Stoner
RP - Elmer Dessens
RP - Travis Blackley
RP - Bobby Livingston
RP - Arturo Lopez
C- Omir Santos
1B- Ike Davis
2B- Russ Adams
3B- Shawn Bowman
SS- Ruben Tejada
LF- Frank Catalanotto
CF- Fernando Martinez
RF- Chris Carter
C- Chris Coste
C - Shawn Riggans
IF- Anderson Hernandez
IF- Jolbert Cabrera
IF - Luis Hernandez
IF - Mike Cervenak
IF - Mike Hessman
OF- Jesus Feliciano
OF- Nick Evans
OF - Jason Pridie

Binghamton
SP - Jenrry Mejia
RP - Eric Niesen
C- Josh Thole
C - Mike Nickeas
C - Francisco Pena
CF- Kirk Nieuwenhuis

Disabled List: Kelvim Escobar, Jay Marshall (if the Mets can't void their waiver claim on him), Carlos Beltran

The Readers Strike Back: A River in Egypt

2010-03-06T00:18:00.004-05:00

(I really should call this "The Reader Strikes Back," since T-Bone is the only person who seems to contribute. Someone else must have an opinion, right?)

TW writes: Again, there you are in the middle of a forest complaining there aren't any trees around.

Even with Abraham, Martin and John, this team would still have to deal with the defending NL Champs down, and that in itself is a daunting prospect.

My man, if anyone is standing on Endor and looking past the Ewoks, it is you.

I just don't want to be lied to. I know the Mets are a .500 team - at best. So does anyone else who's paying attention. We can argue about whether or not the Mets could've and should've done more to improve, but I agree with you that there simply wasn't enough available talent to make the Mets serious contenders against the Phillies this year.

That said, the Mets cannot go into the camp and keep dropping the lame line about how this team was picked to win the World Series last year and since they're now healthy and bringing back the same starting rotation, there's no reason it can't be done this year.

The Mets' starting rotation might be the worst in the National League East. The Phillies, Braves and Marlins are clearly superior. The payroll is going to be some $20 million lighter, even though the Mets are coming off a 70-win season and a year in which they were handed $20 million from the federally-funded bank whose name adorns the cash cow that replaced Shea Stadium. Where did the money go, if not in Bernie Madoff's pockets?

Rather than be enraged by moves the front office has done or not done, I have taken a deep breath and looked at the bright side.

The Mets seem to be committed to allowing their minor league prospects, play in the minor leagues.

I have the benefit of watching spring training games and the names Tejada, Newenhuis, Mejia or Stoner may not mean anything to the untrained eye, but they are all budding major leaguers that will be on this team in two years tops.

Mejia has a true major-league arm and has top of the rotation potential. Jerry Manuel and Darryl Strawberry want to turn him into a closer right now. Dumber ideas have been posed, but they mostly involved Todd Hundley and left field. Stoner might be a useful middle reliever if everything breaks right for him. I suspect that Tejada is overrated and that Nieuenwhatever is too raw. Both will be exposed this year.

But good for the Mets. After years of rushing over-hyped prospects and allowing them to be exposed on the major league level before trading them away for pennies on the dollar, perhaps there is now a commitment to letting the young guys develop at the proper pace. Of course, the Mets are still short-sighted and cheap in the amateur draft, and as long as that continues the farm system will never be as deep as it could be.

Oh and next years free agency class is 10 times better than thispast winter's but you want to rant and rave about Felipe Lopez, who reportedly is a pox on every clubhouse he's walked into.

That's not the point. Alex Cora and Felipe Lopez are making the same amount of money this season. Alex Cora is injured and not very good when he's healthy; Felipe Lopez is pretty good and coming off perhaps the best year of his career. I don't give a damn which one is supposedly a pox on the clubhouses he walks into - I want the more talented player. Show me a team with 95-win talent and I'll show you a team that could win 95 games with Pol Pot as the batboy.

A River in Egypt

2010-02-27T18:30:00.004-05:00

The Mets payroll is at approximately $130 million right now, or nearly $20 million less than last season.

Kelvim Escobar may start the season on the disabled list - which makes him the perfect eighth-inning replacement for JJ Putz in more ways than one.

Felipe Lopez just signed with the Cardinals for $2 million this season - the exact same amount as Alex Cora signed for with the Mets, except that Lopez's deal is only for one year. Felipe Lopez is a better baseball player than Alex Cora.

The top four starters from last year's subpar starting rotation hasn't changed. The bullpen may look different, with the off-season influx of Japanese middle relievers, but there's no reason to believe it will not be just as volatile in 2010. Carlos Beltran will be on the shelf for at least a month to start the season - and maybe more. Jeff Francouer, Daniel Murphy and Rod Barajas are the 6-7-8 hitters - and the scary thing is that there's no one in the organization who can reasonably expected to do better.

Yet the talking point from Port St. Lucie is that this is basically the same team picked to win the World Series in Sports Illustrated last year, except now it is miraculously injury-free.

Is anyone really falling for this?

Rod Barajas and the Mets' Catching Situation

2010-02-23T10:56:00.003-05:00

The Mets signed yet another catcher over the weekend, giving Rod Barajas a one-year deal and the inside track on the starter's job next season. This presumably spells the end of Josh Thole's candidacy for the position - a rare and welcome development from the traveling circus that has become the Mets' front office.

Three good months in Double-A does not make someone ready for the major leagues. Thole has promise - his stint in Venezuela this winter helps to confirm that - but he is nowhere near ready to catch 125 games in the National League. The Barajas signing ensures that Thole will start the season in Buffalo (or perhaps even in Binghamton), so that he can continue to learn and develop as a catcher.

The Barajas signing creates a mildly interesting scenario in that there are now five catchers in camp for four jobs. Barajas and Henry Blanco is the likely catching tandem in New York, leaving Thole, Omir Santos and Chris Coste to battle it out for two spots in Triple-A. (Shawn Riggans is also in the mix, but I just don't see a place for him in this organization.)

Thole has to start wherever he ends up. Santos is a non-prospect, but the Mets would be better off trading him while he has a smidgen of value instead of sending him to Buffalo to back up the starter. If a deal cannot be struck, perhaps Thole could go back to Binghamton to start the season, which clears the way for Santos to start at Buffalo with Coste backing up. I am confident that by July 1, someone is going to be traded, injured or released, allowing Thole to move up and spend the rest of the season in Buffalo. If all goes well, it will be Thole's job to lose in 2011.

None of this is to say that Rod Barajas is a good baseball player. A playoff-caliber team would use someone like Barajas to back up a more talented and capable starting catcher. Barajas is the type of player that a bottom-feeder signs for a $1 million and tries to convince the fan base of how good a signing it was because "he hit 19 home runs last season."

Yeah, Barajas hit 19 home runs last season, but he also had an on-base percentage of .258. Nothing in his past body work suggests that Barajas is a good bet to even get on base at a 30 percent clip in 2010. Barajas can't hit for average and he is an incredibly slow base runner. In short, he's a bad #8 hitter who has enough pop in his bat to masquerade as a bad #7 hitter.

Here's a scary thought: if Barajas bats eighth and has Jeff Francouer and Daniel Murphy in front of him, National League pitchers are looking a run of four players (including the pitcher) who are unlikely to have an on-base percentage over .310 next season. That is a tremendous number of outs from the bottom half of the order.

Batting Reyes Third

2010-02-19T17:18:00.002-05:00

Pitchers and catchers only reported to Port St. Lucie yesterday, but the first mini-controversy of the 2010 Mets season has already been stirred up. Mets manager Jerry Manuel, pondering how to fill out the lineup card with Carlos Beltran on the shelf, indicated that he is toying with the idea of batting Jose Reyes third.

"I think Jose has the ability to probably hit anywhere in the lineup, anywhere from first to fifth -- maybe not fourth," Manuel said. "We toyed with that a little bit last year, and the reason is, in his evolution as a player, I think he is ready for that."

Manuel is almost correct. Reyes ideally belongs somewhere in the top three spots of the order (or as the #8 hitter in a All-Star caliber lineup). As a #5 hitter, he probably isn't enough of a home run threat to sufficiently protect the cleanup hitter. Still, I completely understand why Manuel is thinking about trying out Reyes in the third spot in the order. It's really very simple.

Jose Reyes is not an ideal leadoff hitter.

Yes, I know that Reyes runs very fast and can steal a lot of bases if given the opportunity. That only makes him a prototypical leadoff hitter, not an ideal one. Reyes, at his best, is a threat to join the 70-70-70 club every season (as in walks, stolen bases and extra-base hits). That type of production is actually more useful further down the lineup, where those extra-base hits can drive in more runs.

The ideal leadoff hitter, by contrast, can steal 50 bases, but he can also walk 100 times. It's nice to be able to hit .300, but it's nicer to have an on-base percentage of .400. Reyes is just not that type of player. At best, Reyes might get on base at a .375 clip in 2010. That's nothing to sneeze at, of course, but Reyes is more likely to post an OBP between .350 and .365 if he stays healthy this year.

The notion of speed being essential for a leadoff hitter has been ingrained into the minds of baseball fans since childhood. Speed is a wonderful asset, but it's a wonderful asset from any spot in the lineup. It is essential to have players who can get on base at the top of the order, to give your best hitters the opportunity to drive in more runs. It's always nice if they happen to be fast base runners, but it simply is not essential.

In short, if given the choice between Willy Taveras and JD Drew as your leadoff hitter, put Drew at the top of the lineup every single time.

I'm Back!

2010-02-18T10:32:00.003-05:00

The day that pitchers and catchers report is one of the five best days of the year, right up there with Christmas, my birthday, the NYLISL draft and the day that the Strat ratings come out.

Even potentially disastrous baseball seasons begin with at least a hint of optimism. Maybe that aging workshorse starter has 30 good appearances left in his arm. Maybe your organization's flavor-of-the-month prospect will put it all together and have a standout rookie season. The other teams in the division could have injuries, your team could stay healthy and all of a sudden, you're playing meaningful games in September.

Even after an unproductive season that failed to address numerous critical needs, that optimism can be felt in the hearts of Mets fans today.

Maybe Oliver Perez is ready to turn the corner.

Maybe Mike Pelfrey and John Maine will have their most consistent seasons to date.

Maybe the bullpen will be healthy and effective.

Maybe Daniel Murphy will have a Dave Magadan-like season at first base.

Maybe David Wright will hit 30 home runs again.

Maybe Jeff Francouer will have an on-base percentage over .300.

Maybe the Phillies aren't as good as they look.

Maybe the Marlins are too young.

Maybe the Braves are too old.

Maybe.

As for me, I continue plugging away at this blog, which is nearly two years old now. My schedule has been spotty, to say the least, and I'd be lying if I said that it probably isn't going to remain that way. I'm hopeful, though - I'm trying to balance my work/life schedule in a way that will allow me to do some writing most weekdays before 8 pm. (I think the creative part of my brain just shuts down at that point and I'm just unable to muster up the energy or the enthusiasm to write anything intelligent.)

I am also considering a move to a different site host - Blogger's layouts are just too mundane and this blog really needs a more visually appealing look. This year, I'm going to be more intentional about cross-posting my work. Mack from Mack's Mets has been kind enough to give me a standing invitation to write for his blog, which has significantly more readership than this one does. I'd also like to start posting at Flushing University again, which went through a redesign of its own in the off-season.

There's always a hint of optimism the day that pitchers and catchers report. I'm feeling that optimism today - both for the Mets and for the future of Productive Outs and Crackerjack.

Small Sample Sizes

2010-02-03T10:04:00.002-05:00

Stolen from "Jose Can You Seabiscuit" from this thread at Baseball Think Factory, while discussing how small sample sizes are manipulated when making arguments:

For example, Jack Morris was a great postseason pitcher because he threw a 10-inning shutout in the (1991) World Series. What about the 1992 World Series? Doesn't count.

As for what to do with Joba Chamberlain (the focus of the thread, if you didn't click through) - starters are simply more valuable than relievers. That's why the best starter on the market gets five to seven-year deals at over $20 million a year, and the best reliever on the market* is lucky to get a three-year deal at half the AAV. If you have a young player who has the potential to be an ace starter or a shut-down closer, you try to make him into a starter first.

* Mariano Rivera doesn't count, because he is in a class by himself. Perhaps the single most misguided piece of conventional wisdom of the last 15 years is the notion that any other reliever on earth could provide the same results for their team as Mariano Rivera has done for the Yankees. The man is inhuman, and mere mortals cannot replicate his results.

The Yankees should give Joba a chance to be a starter for a full season, with no restrictions and no manipulation of his pitch count or his spot in the rotation and see what happens. If he flops after 30 starts, then you consider making him a set-up man again.

Putting Chamberlain in the bullpen now is a quick fix, one that will certainly yield a measure of success, but will prevent the Yankees from ever finding out his full potential. There may be a #1 starter inside Joba that will never emerge if he spends two or three years bridging the gap to Rivera and another 10 years protecting three-run leads in the ninth inning.

History Repeats Itself

2010-01-30T19:54:00.006-05:00

Earlier today I read an article that got me thinking about Gregg Jefferies, and the strange place he holds in Mets lore.

One of the most-hyped minor league prospects in franchise history, my best memory of Jefferies comes from his card in the 1988 Strat-o-Matic baseball set - the first set I ever owned. He split time between second and third base while he got the 109 at-bats the card was built on - a tantalizing hint of what Mets fans hoped the future held for Jefferies.

(Strat nerd alert: here's a picture of Jefferies card for that season. Jefferies was a 45/50 with more than 40 points of hits against lefties and righties. A 3e8 at third base, Jefferies also had a *19 and 19 points of home runs v. lefties. In short, he was a switch-hitting Evan Longoria with speed.)

Suffice it to say, Jefferies never lived up to the promise of that first Strat card. He appeared in parts of five mostly uninspiring seasons in New York, perhaps more notable for the controversy that surrounded him than any on-field achievements.

The controversy was mostly generated within his own clubhouse. Jefferies was hated by a cadre of veteran Mets and there was a perception around the team that the young star was a baby who received preferential treatment because of the potential he had displayed in the minor leagues. Even an ardent Jefferies supporter would have to admit that he did himself no favors with his on-field histrionics - think of a 21-year-old Paul O'Neill without the track record and the aw-shucks attitude off the field.

What really resonated with me was a 1990 story about Jefferies in the New York Times, written during Spring Training before the season began. Jefferies had a terrible start to the 1989 season, earning extra attention from manager Davey Johnson and others in the organization. As it tends to do in such situations, jealousy reared its ugly head in the Mets' clubhouse.

Things got so grim that some of the Mets muttered that Jefferies was hurting the team, even though he hit .289 with 11 home runs in his second-half revival. Randy Myers, who has since been traded to Cincinnati, sniped at him by writing across the lineup card: ''Are we trying?'' And Roger McDowell, after he was traded to Philadelphia last June, taunted Jefferies from the mound during a game in September and touched off a fight.

I find myself struck by the idea of a player having the gall to deface the lineup card to taunt a struggling teammate, one who was clearly talented enough to become a superstar one day. It goes a long way toward explaining why Myers was traded for John Franco after the 1989 season - a trade that I never really understood before today.

I also found myself flashing back to the "Know Your Place Rook" fiasco between Billy Wagner and Lastings Milledge from a few years ago. The Mets chose Jefferies over Myers in 1989 - they chose Wagner over Milledge in 2007. History repeats itself.

The Anti-Mets

2010-01-15T22:24:00.002-05:00

John Sickels is a must-read for anyone interested in minor league baseball. He knows his stuff, plain and simple, and relies on both the numbers and his eyes when evaluating young talent.

For the past few weeks, Sickels has been grading the Top 20 prospects of every major league team. (His Mets analysis can be found here.) Today's focus was on the Tampa Bay Rays, a farm system with an enviable amount of blue chip prospects despite having already churned out potential superstars like Evan Longoria and David Price over the last two years.

The praise heaped upon the Rays' system is well-deserved, but the kicker was the dig taken at the Mets during Sickels's analysis.

Not just the amazing aggregation of talent at the top, but the way they run the system really impresses me. The Rays can pick good college guys with developed skills. They can pick raw high school guys and turn them into players. They have an effective Latin American operation. They don't push guys too fast: they are particularly conservative with the high school arms, letting them percolate enough at each level. They are the Anti-Mets in that regard, and it really seems to work for them.

Ouch. The Mets have developed a reputation for rushing their top prospects, especially under Tony Bernazard's regime. This strategy has yet to pay any particular dividends, and we may come to find that Daniel Murphy's career was actually derailed by not giving him more time to develop in Double-A or Triple-A last season.

The Mets (and a lot of their fans) seem to think that 200 solid at-bats or 50 good innings in the minor leagues are a sign that a player is ready to jump to the next level. I do not agree. Organized professional baseball exists in the form that it does because most players benefit from playing against at progressively more challenging levels. It's a true test of whether a player can be a successful major leaguer.

I am conservative in my approach to minor leaguers - I like to see a player succeed over the course of a full season in both Double-A and Triple-A before considering him for a spot on the big league roster. That's why Josh Thole belongs in Buffalo next season, not backing up Bengie Molina. Same goes for Jon Niese, Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez. Jenrry Mejia may have an electric arm, but he has made only 10 starts above A ball in his career. It would be a mistake of near-criminal proportions to throw him into the Mets' bullpen next season.

For every Dwight Gooden, who was ready to dominate major league hitters before his 20th birthday, there are 50 players who need to learn and improve their skills across multiple levels before reaching The Show. Patience isn't always popular, but when it comes to minor league prospects, it truly is a virtue.

Thoughts on Dawson and Alomar

2010-01-14T12:00:00.003-05:00

The Narrowback and I were unable to get together for semi-annual pints over the Christmas holiday. This was a disappointing development, since I particularly enjoy drinking with the Narrowback. It's been over eight years since we last worked together, but the conversation still flows freely. The older I get, the more of a requirement that becomes for me when considering whether or not to spend time with someone.

Earlier this week, he asked my opinion about Andre Dawson's induction into the Hall of Fame, as well as Roberto Alomar's exclusion. Of course, I gave him my opinion.

Andre Dawson: not a Hall of Famer. I'm stealing the line from someone else, but the place is becoming the Hall of Very Good. Dawson was consistently a good player, but his only superstar year was 1987, because the wind was blowing out at Wrigley. His supporters pull out the 400 HRs/300 steals line. What they don't say is that he only hit over 30 homers three times and only stole over 30 bases three times (never in the same season). And don't give me the "OBP didn't matter back then" stuff. That argument tries to say that players swung at bad pitches in every at-bat because getting a hit was more important then helping your team.

Roberto Alomar: A Hall of Famer, but its no outrage that he wasn't a first ballot pick. Done as an effective player at Age 34, Alomar's credentials rest on an 11-season peak from 1991 to 2001. His first three years were only average to slightly above-average, and his last three years were dismal. He was a dominant player in between though, for just long enough to be considered with the immortals.

More importantly, though, when are more people going to realize that Tim Raines belongs in the Hall of Fame?

Getting Excited Again

2010-01-08T09:38:00.003-05:00

I can't help it.

I know that the Mets have a mountain to climb before they can legitimately become a championship-caliber team. The pitching is still in shambles, the bottom of the order is a black hole and the front office hasn't gotten any more intelligent with the dawn of a new decade.

But I'm starting to get excited again.

The Jason Bay signing was a good first step. I think the average annual value was too high, but the Mets can afford to drop $2 million a year extra on a player if that's what it takes to convince him to play in the shadow of the Yankees.

The naysayers will tell you that Bay will age badly, that his defense will be atrocious and that he won't be able to conquer the National League's version of the Green Monster. I do not see it.

I love reading Tim Marchman's work and I respect his opinion, but I think he is dead wrong on Bay. (C'mon, Tim, ZIPS projections cannot be taken seriously - any player over 30 seems to have an automatic "statistical decline" factor embedded in its formula.) Time will tell, but I think that Bay will do fine as a clean-up hitter for the next four-plus years.

Today's analysis of the Mets' farm system from John Sickels was a hopeful sign that things are getting better on that front as well. Now look, no one will ever confuse New York's minor-league stable with that of the Texas Rangers, which boasts several different blue-chippers who can be All-Stars in 2010.

But the Mets have three players - Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores and Fernando Martinez - who Sickels rates as potential stars. Each needs at least one more year of seasoning - don't rush Mejia next season!! - but after several years of lacking suitable minor league options, help may finally be on the way. The depth is still wanting, but it's going to require a philosophical change in the front office before Adam Wogan can develop a farm system as promising as any in baseball.

There is still a lot more to do. The Mets need to sign two starters (one of which should be Ben Sheets or Erik Bedard). They need to sign every minor-league free agent reliever imaginable and throw them into a competition for three or four spots in the 2010 bullpen. Someone needs to catch - and it shouldn't be Josh Thole or Bengie Molina. They need to pawn Luis Castillo off on someone and sign Orlando Hudson to play second base.

As constructed, the New York Mets are no better than an 85-win team in 2010. Frankly, I think that is a kind estimate. But Bay is the first step in the right direction. I absolutely hate the idea of building the rest of this team through free agency, but the Mets are in a unique position to sign two or three quality players without guaranteeing more than two years to any of them.

If they can get Sheets and Hudson ... and if they can resist over-committing to Molina ... and if they don't rush their best prospects ... maybe, just maybe ...

Joe Morgan

2010-01-04T15:04:00.002-05:00

One of my favorite players growing up was Joe Morgan, the Hall of Fame second baseman who reinvented himself as a curmudgeonly baseball announcer after his playing days were over. My affinity for Morgan was forged almost exclusively from an appearance on The Baseball Bunch in 1983, one season before he would retire from the game.

Morgan went into the Hall of Fame in 1990, garnering nearly 82 percent of the vote. To me, Morgan is an "inner-circle" Hall of Famer - a player who was so good that he was elected the first year he was placed on the ballot.

That’s why I so surprised to find that, except for a six-year period from 1972 to 1977, Joe Morgan was not a particularly good offensive player.

Morgan’s peak – a six-year period during which the Reds won two World Series and X National League pennants – set the tone for the legacy by which he is still remembered today. To say that Morgan was merely the best player in baseball during that time is an understatement. (The great Joe Posnanski has more about Morgan’s mid-1970s dominance here.)

However, Morgan actually played in parts of 22 seasons, beginning in 1963 and ending in 1984. The first part of his career was spent in Houston, where he broke in at the age of 19. Morgan’s first full season was in 1965 when, at the age of 21, he began a string of three straight seasons with an OPS+ of 130 or higher. Stardom beckoned, but something went wrong in 1968, where what I presume was an injury kept him out of action for all but 10 games that year.

Morgan seemed to stagnate in the three seasons that followed, putting up a seasonal OPS+ of 109, 113 and 116. He was an above-average player each year, but he was not fulfilling the promise that his Age 21 to 23 seasons suggested.

That changed when Morgan was traded to the Reds in 1972, and began his six-year run of excellence that Posnanski can speak to better than I can. Morgan’s decline began in 1978, his second-to-last season with Cincinnati, with a .250 batting average and a 105 OPS+ that signaled
his best days were behind him. Except for a brief rejuvenation in 1982 with San Francisco, Morgan never again approached the lofty heights of his first six years in Cincinnati (or even his three best years in Houston).

In all, Joe Morgan was an incredible baseball player for 6 years – and a slightly above average player for the 0ther 16 seasons he played.

Slash Stats
Morgan (1972-77): .301/.429/.495
Morgan (1963-71; 1978-84): .256/.373/.392

Totals
Morgan (6 seasons): 167 2B, 26 3B, 130 HR, 359 SB, 709 BB
Morgan (16 seasons): 282 2B, 70 3B, 138HR, 330 SB, 1,156 BB

Quick Hits - 12/11/09

2009-12-11T10:56:00.002-05:00

* What kind of blogger sits out the entire Winter Meetings without so much as a post?

* Mack says that Bengie Molina is going to be a Met today; Jack says that his soul is going to die a little if that happens. T-Bone swears that I told him some time ago that I would be all right with Molina on a one-year deal. I do not remember saying this, but I don't remember saying a lot of the things that come out of my mouth. Let me state for the record - Bengie Molina is not worth $6 million per year if the deal is one year, two years or 10 minutes long.

* Mets sign Clint Everts to a minor-league deal. Looking at his 2009 numbers and considering his pedigree, why did the Nationals even let him go?

* Loyal reader YD sends along this quote (although technically, I refer to him as MD): "The way a team plays as a whole determines its success. You may have the greatest bunch of individual stars in the world, but if they don't play together, the club won't be worth a dime." - Babe Ruth.

Every time a Mets fan tells me that a team with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and Francisco Rodriguez can't possibly be THAT FAR away from being a playoff team, the Bambino's quote immediately leaps to mind.

Roster Move: Mets Sign Another Old Guy

2009-12-03T22:07:00.003-05:00

Henry Blanco? Really? Who's next, Charles Johnson?

Look, Blanco's defensive skills may still be intact (he threw out 40 percent of base-stealers last year), and he may have also been a mentor to Geovany Soto during his breakout 2008 season. But there is just no rational explanation for doubling Blanco's salary after a season where he appeared in just 67 games and batted .232/.320/.382. If the Mets are going to give $1.5 million to the likes of Henry Blanco, then I don't want to hear another word about the Wilpons having financial concerns.

(Actually, this move signals everything I hate about the Mets right now - this organiation would rather give $1.5 million to a 37-year-old backup catcher then to pay over-slot for a first-round draft pick. It is the very definition of penny-wise and pound-foolish.)

This would seemingly signal the end of Omir Santos's career in New York - a move that I am hardly lamenting. Mets fans have a bad habit of thinking that a good three-week stretch from a player is an indicator of All-Star potential. Too many people drank the Kool-Aid with Santos, a career minor leaguer who would be lucky to bat over .200 if he gets 100 major league at-bats next season.

By the way, Mack from Mack's Mets points out that Chris Coste will be well received in Buffalo, which is where he's apparently ticketed to go now that Blanco is in the fold. He also predicts that Bengie Molina will be the next 35-and-over catcher signed by the Mets - a move that will push me into full-meltdown mode.

It Never Ends

2009-12-02T19:11:00.002-05:00

Thanks, Jon Heyman.

If I need to tell you that signing a 35-year-old catcher who runs slower than I do and had a .285 OBP last year is a mistake, then you may have accidentally wandered over here from LOLCats. If the idea of spending $6 million on a "strong-armed" catcher that threw out only 23 percent of base-stealers in 2009 seems like a good one, than you may be Omar Minaya and/or his dog. (Only renowned noodle arms AJ Pierzynski and Jason Varitek allowed more runners to steal on them last year.)

But hey, the Giants didn't offer Molina arbitration, so the Mets can keep their second-round pick and toe the line on slot recommendations again next June!

Roster Moves: Mets Sign Old Guys

2009-12-02T11:10:00.003-05:00

The first step in the rebuilding job is complete!

Alex Cora and Chris Coste have been brought into the fold and added to the 40-man roster, although Coste actually signed a minor-league deal last week. These moves, not surprisingly, were met mostly with derision in the Mets' blog kingdom. In a season where the Mets have so many holes to fill, you will forgive the fanbase by not being excited over a utility infielder and a second- or third-string catcher.

I have no problem with signing Coste - he hit reasonably well as a backup in Philadelphia for a few seasons, although the bottom dropped out of his offensive production when he was traded to the Astros last summer. I would've preferred the Mets make a run at Kelly Shoppach, who was traded to the Rays this week. That said, Tampa seems very unlikely to offer Dioner Navarro a contract now - I would love it if the Mets paired him with Santos and allowed Coste to mentor Josh Thole in Buffalo.

Cora is another story. It doesn't seem like a good idea to offer $2 million to a light-hitting backup infielder with a questionable glove and two damaged thumbs. Minaya's style as a general manager seems to include ranking the areas where he perceives the team has a need and then filling it as quickly as possible with the first available player who fits the bill. One can almost imagine Minaya scanning this list, seeing the phrase "utility infielder" and deciding that he needs to lock Cora up so he can move to the next task.

There are many problems with this approach, not the least of which is that Minaya rarely lets the market come to him. Was it really that important to lock down your utility infielder right now? Was the market for Cora so hot that Minaya stood to lose him if he wasn't offered a contract before December 1? Were there any younger, more athletic players in baseball who could've filled that role more cheaply?

Don't tell me that Cora's "leadership skills" were essential to a 70-win team that showed only a passing familiarity with how to play fundamental baseball, either. The Mets don't need leaders - they need good baseball players, and lots of them. Cora and Coste may play a supporting role, but they do not address what the Mets really need.

Another Strike Against Jack Morris

2009-11-29T14:24:00.004-05:00

James Ronald and I have had a long-standing but good-natured feud over Jack Morris and his Hall of Fame qualifications. He always argues for Morris's inclusion; I always say that Morris should have to buy a ticket like the rest of us if he wants to get into the Hall of Fame.

I know all the arguments in favor of Morris - winningest pitcher of the 80s, clutch postseason performances, mystical ability to "pitch to the score" (since disproven here). I know my arguments against Morris - 3.90 career ERA, 186 career losses, no single season with an ERA below 3.00 despite fashioning a career in a pitcher-friendly era. There are a lot of pitchers like Morris in his era; they just weren't lucky enough to play for a team that handed him the ball in Game 7 of a World Series.

The amazing Joe Posnanski is not a believer in Morris's candidacy either. (He also supports Dan Quisenberry for the Hall of Fame, but that's a crusade for another day.) Posnanski has written about this before, but takes a different tactic here by comparing Morris to another one of his contemporaries - Dennis Martinez:

He is an interesting case to me because he is the first big league player from Nicaragua, he spread out his success over a very long career and, yes, when you add it all up he has a very similar case to Jack Morris, who is gaining Hall of Fame momentum.

Morris: 254-186, 3.90 ERA, 2,478 Ks, 1,390 walks, 1.296 WHIP, 28 shutouts, 105 ERA+.
Martinez: 245-193, 3.70 ERA, 2,149 Ks, 1,165 walks, 1.266 WHIP, 30 shutouts, 106 ERA+.

Morris pitched one of the great World Series games ever.
Martinez is one of 16 players since 1900 to have thrown a perfect game.

Morris led the league in wins twice, complete games once.
Martinez led the league in wins once, complete games twice, innings pitched once, shutouts once and ERA once.

Morris won 20 games three times and was selected to five All-Star Games.
Martinez never won 20, but he had three good years shortened by strikes and he was selected to four All-Star Games. And from age 32-40, he had a 129 ERA+ — Morris only once in his career managed a single season with an ERA of 129 or better.

Even More on Building the 2010 Mets - Starters

2009-11-22T12:59:00.002-05:00

Notes about other starting pitchers in the Mets' organization who I haven't mentioned so far:

Jon Niese: Niese hasn't shown enough to be considered a lock for the fifth starter's spot, although I imagine the Mets will give lip service to the idea that he will be competing for the job next spring. That's fine - he will benefit from fronting the Buffalo Bisons' rotation in 2010. Niese is only 23 years old, so the Mets aren't exactly stunting his growth by asking him to stand tall in the International League first.

Nelson Figueroa: Figueroa has been jerked around by the Mets for two straight years now. I expect he'll be back for more punishment in 2010, unless there's a match with a team more likely to value his services. If Niese is the first man the Mets will call on to fill a hole in the rotation, than Figueroa is the second.

Tobi Stoner: Stoner isn't on the radar just yet, but he made 47 starts across three levels in 2008 and 2009 and had good numbers (3.59 ERA, 1.201 WHIP) to show for it. (Yes, he went 14-20 during that time, but if you're reading this blog than you already know not to measure pitchers strictly by their won-loss record.) Stoner's cameo in the Mets bullpen last September is not, as far as I know, a portent of things to come. He should be back in Buffalo next season, where another strong performance will surely gain Stoner a lot more attention.

Bobby Parnell: Back to the bullpen, unless Omar Minaya can sucker another general manager into giving up a competent baseball player. Think Brent Gaff, without the track record of minor-league success. To steal from The Usual Suspects: "The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world that Bobby Parnell was a major league pitcher."

Tim Redding: If he hasn't been non-tendered already, it can only be chalked up to Minaya's benevolence. At this point, why ruin Thanksgiving at the Redding home?

Pat Misch, Fernando Nieve, Lance Broadway: These guys might be considered for Buffalo's starting rotation in 2010, but they have no chance of making it in New York. I would be surprised if they are all still in the organization by the time Spring Training starts.

More on Building the 2010 Mets - Starters

2009-11-21T21:57:00.002-05:00

Mack writes (via the wonderful Mack's Mets): Does Ollie really have to come back?

Can't the Mets work out some kind of compensation deal with China and just add his cost to the debt already owed them?

Call me a sucker for left-handers who can't find the plate (I happen to be one myself!), but I think Ollie might be decent next year. I am really happy about his voluntary off-season regimen at that performance institute in Arizona. If they think of him as an SP4 and act accordingly in the trade/free agent market, the Mets might be pleasantly surprised this year.

Is it too late to non-tender John Maine, if the Mets sign, say, Lackey and Marquis?

The non-tender deadline is December 12. That gives Omar Minaya more than three weeks to acquire at least one starter and to explore the market for Maine and Mike Pelfrey. If the Mets have two new starters on December 11 and they can't trade Pelfrey, then I have to think Maine is a goner.

I didn't expand enough on this plan in the original post. Simply put, here's how I would fill out the starting rotation for next season, in the order of I would do it:

1) Sign Rich Harden or Erik Bedard (preferably Harden) to a one-year deal with a club option.
2) Sign Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro to a two-year deal with a club option. I have no preference between the two - I just want the player who accepts the most reasonable deal. If Minaya's hand is forced, he may have to offer three guaranteed years. That is fine, as long as he wrangles a very club-friendly option year to the contract.
3) Explore the trade market for Mike Pelfrey. He has more trade value than Maine and a lot of teams would take a chance on a former #1 pick making only $500K next season. If a good deal can be struck, ship Pelfrey away and install Maine in the rotation.
4) Explore the trade market for Maine. Get any reasonable return you can for him.
5) Non-tender Maine, if Steps 3 and 4 are unsuccessful.

SP1 - Santana
SP2 - Marquis/Pineiro
SP3 - Harden/Bedard
SP4 - Perez
SP5 - Maine/Pelfrey

Building the 2010 Mets: Starters

2009-11-21T10:43:00.002-05:00

With three intriguing position players ready to debut at Triple A-Buffalo next year (Ike Davis, Josh Thole, Fernando Martinez), the Mets can afford to concentrate their financial resources on starting pitching this off-season.

Johan Santana, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey will almost certainly make up three-fifths of the Mets starting rotation in 2010. The need for a consistent #2 starter to complement Santana is obvious, but with two gaping holes in the rotation the Mets might be better served by skipping the likes of John Lackey or Randy Wolf and focusing on using that money to get two starters.

Santana has been a legitimate ace in his first two seasons in New York, although elbow trouble at the end of last season has become the proverbial elephant in the room. No one wants to acknowledge the possibility that Santana's days as a stopper are over, despite four guaranteed years and nearly $100 million left on his contract. His 2009 numbers, while certainly solid, do not suggest that he can still be counted among the best pitchers in the National League. No matter - put him at the top of the rotation and (like so many other player personnel decisions from this front office) cross your fingers and hope for the best.

Oliver Perez was, somewhat predictably, horrible in 2009. Although the depths to which he sank may have been unexpected, there was an almost palpable sense that Perez was not going to live up to his free agent contract. He is untradable at this point, so the Mets will have to simply pencil him in as a mid-rotation option and (again) hope that he finds himself. Reports that he is involved in an off-season conditioning program are encouraging, especially since Ollie is not exactly renowned for his dedication to his craft.

Thanks to a quirk in the major league contract he signed with the Mets when he was drafted, Pelfrey is actually taking a pay cut this season. Reports vary on how much less he will be making, but Pelfrey will be paid a fifth starter's salary in 2010. That's exactly what he deserves these days - Pelfrey looks more like a busted prospect than a future star who cannot be counted on for even a league-average performance.

WWJD?

The Mets do not have a pitcher in their farm system who is ready to step into the rotation before the 2012 season at the earliest. There is no one to be blocked, and therefore no reason not to sign or trade for two starters with contracts that will extend over the next two seasons.

Since I do not think that two blue-chip starters are attainable this off-season, the Mets will have to take some short-term risks. John Maine is a wild card right now - if the Mets cannot swap him for another non-tender candidate, they will have to think seriously about whether or not it will even be worth offering him a 2010 contract. If they end up spending $15 million-plus on Lackey or a package of free agent starters, the Mets may have no choice but to keep Maine and hope that he or Perez steps up to be a #3 starter. I am tired of hoping.

That said, I am actually confident that Maine will outperform Pelfrey next year, so a bold move would be to trade Pelfrey and his very reasonable contract to a team looking to dump an "overpriced" starter. Indeed, it might be the only chance the Mets have of getting a decent starter on the trade market.

Trading for a starter will be very difficult. The Mets need to hold onto the precious few prospects they have, and even those young players may not be enough to acquire someone of substance. Forget about Roy Halladay - there is no way on God's green earth that the Mets have the horses to pry him away from the Blue Jays. Unless the Mets can move someone like Luis Castillo to take on a starter owed a lot of guaranteed money, I don't see how they can address their needs in their trade market.

If that proves to be the case, the free agent market will be the only alternative. I am never a fan of signing multiple free agents, but this is a rare season where it may make sense. The Mets have a protected first-round pick, so they can afford to sign one of the two Type A free agents (John Lackey and Randy Wolf) without giving that pick up.

Lackey is the only free agent who is a legitimate #2 starter when healthy, but Tim Marchman quite correctly points out that his injury history and the mileage on his arm do not suggest a starter who can be counted on to pitch regularly in the future. I would pass. Wolf was dominant in 2009, but that performance just screams "contract year." Some poor team is going to regret giving a multi-year contract to Wolf; I can only hope that it will not be the Mets.

The Type B free agent market has a few starters who are worth looking at, provided they can be signed for a reasonable length of time and annual rate. Rich Harden has the best raw talent of any free agent, with risk/reward potential so high that he is worth a one-year deal with a club option at a comparatively high price. He CANNOT be counted on as a second starter, even if he gets paid like one; Harden needs to be slotted in as a #5 and used judiciously this season.

Otherwise, Joel Pineiro is the best of a mediocre lot - he has become the type of groundball machine that Pelfrey should be by now. Jason Marquis claims to want to come to New York; will he come here for two years and $13 million? Erik Bedard has made only 30 starts in the last two seasons, but like Harden his risk/reward potential is worth a one-year flier if Pineiro or Marquis go elsewhere.

Best case scenario: The Mets sign Harden or Bedard to a one-year deal with a club option, who gives them 30 dominant starts and finally puts his injury history to rest. They also guess right on either Pineiro or Marquis and he performs well over the next two or three seasons. Perez uses his time in Arizona to finally realize his potential and becomes the best #3 starter in the league. Maine or Pelfrey succeeds as a fifth starter - the other one leaves town quietly.

Worst case scenario: The Mets dedicate too many years and too much money to Lackey or Wolf. They keep Maine, Pelfrey and Perez to round out the rotation and none of them are healthy or effective. They go into 2011 with their top two starters signed for three more years at financial rates far beyond their return, to go along with one more year of Bad Ollie and the same two holes in the rotation they have right now.

Targeting Non-Tender Candidates

2009-11-11T12:03:00.003-05:00

There's a new market inefficiency waiting to be exploited by astute major league general managers - non-tender candidates.

Non-tendering is a term used when an arbitration-eligible player is not offered a contract for the upcoming season. That player, in effect, becomes a free agent and can sign with any club. This offseason may see an explosion in non-tendered players, which would flood the free agent market with young veterans who may still have something to offer.

Three such players switched teams last week - the Royals sent Mark Teahen to the White Sox, the Marlins sent Jeremy Hermida to the Red Sox and the Brewers sent JJ Hardy to the Twins. The White Sox may have slightly overpaid for Teahen, but Boston and Minnesota have filled holes while giving up relatively little in the process.

Teahen, Hermida and Hardy were all considered solid young prospects just a few years ago, but each have failed to live up to expectations so far. Hardy has had the best career so far - he hit 50 home runs as a shortstop in 2007 and 2008 combined and developed a reputation as a sure-handed fielder. Unfortunately for Hardy, he struggled mightily in 2009 and was even sent to the minors in August (a move that some saw as an attempt by Milwaukee to delay his ability to become a free agent).

Teahen and Hermida have not been as successful as Hardy, but are intriguing players nevertheless. A natural third baseman, Kansas City has jerked Teahen all over the diamond in the last few years and his offensive production has suffered as a result. Hermida has failed to build on on a promising 2007 season in which he hit 18 home runs and put up a .296/.369/.501 line at the age of 23.

Once the season ended, all three men were at risk of being released by their former team if they weren't traded first. Why would these clubs want to give up on young, moderately-priced talent so quickly? The answer lies in the arbitration process.

A quick explanation: baseball players are bound to their original team for up to six major league seasons before they can become free agents. The club can unilaterally set the player's salary for the first three seasons he is in the majors. For the next three seasons, the player and club can attempt to negotiate a deal that is considered fair by both sides. If no agreement can be reached, the club retains the player's rights but the salary is set by an independent arbitrator.

Each side submits a salary recommendation and the arbitrator decides to accept the player's proposal or the club's proposal. In general, the previous year's salary and the salary of players with similar skill sets are strongly considered when it comes time for the arbitrator to make his decision.

Suddenly, the rumblings about the arbitration process have gotten louder and clubs appear less willing to pay $4 or $5 million a year to players whose production may be easily replaced with cheaper talent. In one sense, that suggests an increased business acumen - I also suspect that it's more a matter of mid-market and small-market teams trying to control payroll.

As a result, players like Teahen, Hermida and Hardy - who in the past never would've been non-tendered - are suddenly in danger of losing their jobs. General managers are taking a harder look at arbitration-eligible players and wondering if they are headaches better passed on to another club, even if the players gotten in return pale in comparison.

In any event, a new undervalued commodity has developed. Big-market clubs - like the New York Mets - should be looking to snap up arbitration-eligible players who may not always be good enough to start, but are still young enough to salvage a respectable career. Why not take a chance on former prospects who haven't quite panned out yet, especially when the commitment is minimal and the price is still reasonable?

Hardy is a natural shortstop, so obviously he would not have made sense for a team still committed to Jose Reyes at that position. However, Teahen and Hermida would've made for terrific reserve options on a team that simply must stop stocking their bench with over-the-hill free agents.

Teahen could've challenged for the first base job in the spring and served as a competent alternative to David Wright on those rare occasions when the workhorse needed a day off. Hermida can play either corner outfield position and could've challenged Jeff Francouer in right field. Both are left-handed and both are better pinch-hitting options than Alex Cora, who the Mets might re-sign this winter.

Was Omar Minaya ever in talks with Kansas City and Florida for Teahen or Hermida? If not, he missed out on an opportunity to strengthen his bench with two young, versatile players who still have time to make something of themselves. On a team with so many holes to fill, Minaya can't afford to miss out on too many of these opportunities.

Building the 2010 New York Mets

2009-11-06T10:49:00.004-05:00

I still plan on doing an in-depth analysis of the Mets' 40-man roster, but I want to set that up with a more general look at the five main components of the big club - starting pitching, relief pitching, catching, infield and outfield. The Mets need help in all five of these areas before Opening Day, but it's highly unlikely that they will be able to address everything this winter.

The truth is, building the 2010 Mets is really about laying the foundation for the 2011 Mets. Right now, it appears that the Mets need one or two starters, one or two relievers, a catcher, a first baseman and at least one corner outfielder to seriously challenge the Phillies in 2010. Omar Minaya isn't going to find seven free agents to fill those holes, and the Mets simply don't have the chips to make more than one good trade to improve the on-field product.

I just don't think that this Mets team has it in them to be competitive next season. Minaya's job may depend on a successful 2010, and I fear that the players he pursues will reflect that, but the franchise would be better off if Minaya was patient and looked at roster reconstruction as a two-year process.

There is not one minor leaguer ready to be a league-average player next season, but intriguing bats like Josh Thole, Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez will benefit immensely from a full season in Triple-A. If Thole, Davis and Martinez pass the test at Buffalo, the Mets will have three promising, low-cost options in their starting lineup for 2011.

For that reason, the Mets need to be wary of committing to multi-year deals with a catcher and a first baseman, and simply cannot sign Jeff Francouer to a long-term extension. There are internal options at first base, and Minaya can offer one-year, incentive laden deals to a veteran catcher and left fielder that won’t block Thole and Martinez.

Daniel Murphy and Chris Carter can battle it out for the first base job in 2010; they will make less than $1 million combined and would allow Minaya to pursue a free agent starter or to take on a big contract elsewhere. If neither has a breakout season, both can be pushed aside for Davis (if he’s successful) or for an established star in 2011.

Francouer, meanwhile, hit just well enough that he’s worth another look in 2010 as the starting right fielder. He is incredibly overrated offensively by Mets fans and he will probably revert back to his uninspiring career norms next season, but Francouer is young enough and good enough defensively that he will do little to no harm batting seventh and playing on a one-year deal.

Will Minaya resist the temptation to indiscriminately spend all those Wilpon bucks that apparently weren’t lost in the Bernie Madoff scandal? I seriously doubt it. Met fans can only hope that Minaya doesn’t do any more damage to the franchise in his quest to save his job.

Organizational Philosophies

2009-11-05T13:08:00.004-05:00

It’s easy to forget that the New York Yankees are world champions today in large part because they didn’t make the playoffs last season.

The Yankees finished third in the AL East in 2008, behind the upstart Tampa Bay Rays and their arch-rival Boston Red Sox. They weren’t a bad team – 89 wins in a division featuring the league champions and the wild card winner is nothing to be ashamed of. The 2008 team simply wasn’t good enough by the franchise’s lofty standards.

It was the first time since the doomed 1994 season that the Yankees stayed home in October – and they didn’t take it lightly.

The Yankees went out and bought the two best pitchers on the market – CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett – and paid them a combined $30.5 million to pitch for them in 2009. Sabathia is an ace in every sense of the world; durable, effective and he can pitch on three days’ rest without crawling into the fetal position in fright. Burnett is more inconsistent, but has an electric fastball/breaking ball combination that can dominate any lineup in baseball when his stuff is working.

Not content with shoring up their starting rotation, the Yankees also went out and bought the best position player on the market – first baseman Mark Teixeira. They also traded spare parts for outfielder Nick Swisher, who fell out of favor with the White Sox after a .219/.332/.410 line two seasons into a five-year, $26.75 million deal. Swisher was hurt by an absurdly low .249 BABIP, which suggested he was due to rebound in 2009. That’s exactly what happened; Swisher put up an .249/.371/.498 line with 29 home runs and has proven to be a good fit on the field and in the clubhouse.

Sabathia, Teixeira and Swisher all have something in common besides their hefty price tag – they are all under the age of 30, which suggests that each player in still the prime of his career. Burnett is 32 and a veteran of 11 major league seasons; he was the grand old man of the Yankees' free agent class. Only Swisher could be considered a “risk” coming off a bad season – the other three were stars in 2008 and there was no reason to believe they would regress any time soon.

This very long lead-in has a specific purpose – to compare how the Yankees responded to missing the playoffs in 2008 with the road the Mets chose to go down instead. The Yankees used their natural financial advantages to fill all of their holes and to create a championship-caliber ballclub. The Mets, on the other hand, superficially patched some of their holes and blatantly ignored others, choosing to rely on hopes and dreams instead of reality.

The starting rotation in 2008 remained unchanged, except for the addition of Livan Hernandez in the fifth spot. Hernandez was actually better than expected; he was merely medicore instead of being outright dreadful. Oliver Perez was re-signed to a three-year deal above the market rate and promptly tanked. Mike Pelfrey was penciled in for a breakout campaign over 2009, even though there was no clear reason to explain why he pitched more effectively in the second half of 2008. John Maine was brought back and it was assumed he would resemble the 2007 model more than the 2008 model. Both Pelfrey and Maine failed to live up to expectations.

The starting lineup remained virtually unchanged as well. The only difference was that Daniel Murphy was handed the left fielder’s job despite having played in only one game above Double-A to that point and having been an infielder for his entire minor-league career.

The graveyards of baseball history are littered with the bones of hot-shot young rookies who make a name for themselves on 200 at-bats only to fade into obscurity afterwards. The Mets chose to believe that Murphy would buck that trend, and passed on the opportunity to give players like Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu below-market deals so that Murphy could be a starter. Murphy ended the season as the Mets' starting first baseman, putting up Darin Erstad-like numbers at a position where one expects to have a competent hitter.

No, when the time came to build the 2009 Mets, Omar Minaya went the myopic route and declared that the bullpen was the only need to be addressed. The first step was signing Francisco Rodriguez to a multi-year deal to be their closer. This was the Mets' big free agent splash, despite several years of declining peripherals that suggested that K-Rod's best years may be behind him.

He responded in kind, putting up the highest ERA, WHIP and walk rate in his eight-year career. That wasn't all - Rodriguez also had the lowest K/9 rate he's ever had since making the major leagues. On top of it all, he is signed for another two years, with an easily-obtainable option based on games finished that would balloon his salary to $17.5 million in 2012. The idea of paying any closer not named Mariano Rivera that much money to finish games is absurd to the point of hysteria.

Minaya then traded two relievers, a utility outfielder and four minor-leaguers to bring back … two relievers and a utility outfielder. Sean Green and Joe Smith cancelled each other out, just as Jeremy Reed and Endy Chavez did. The deal, then, was essentially Aaron Heilman and four-minor leaguers for JJ Putz, a former closer coming off an arm injury and ineffectiveness the season before.

The temptation to compare the Putz deal to the Swisher deal is obvious, until you realize that the Yankees had a clear reason to expect Swisher to rebound – an unsustainable BABIP that would improve Swisher’s numbers if he simply regressed to the norm. The Mets had no objective reason to believe that Putz’s injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009 would simply cease to be a factor and that he would return to his previously dominant form.

As we know now, Putz was a $5 million bust, contributing just 29.3 innings with a 5.22 ERA and a 1.636 WHIP. He has an $8.6 million option for 2010; the Mets would have to be clinically insane to pick that option up. Meanwhile, here's a look at the minor leaguers they traded:

Mike Carp (23): a .315/.415/.463 line in a cup of coffee with the Seattle Mariners; a .271/.372/.446 line and 15 home runs with Triple-A Tacoma
Ezequiel Carrera (22): a .337/.441/.416 line and 27 stolen bases with Double-A West Tennessee
Jason Vargas (26): a 3-6 record with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.331 WHIP for the Mariners; a 4-3 record with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP for Triple-A Tacoma
Makiel Cleto (20): an 0-4 record with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.923 WHIP in the low minors

The pitchers haven't done much (although Cleto is young enough to bounce back), but the Mets certainly could use bats like Carp and Carrera in a minor-league system that is painfully thin at the upper levels.

The Yankees are world champions today because they didn’t make the playoffs in 2008 and reacted decisively. The Mets are also-rans because they didn’t make the playoffs in 2008 and refused to react decisively. Instead, the Mets acted as though they were merely a few tweaks away from being world champions.

On a day where it’s tough enough just to be a Mets fan, knowing that the difference between the two organizational philosophies led to such disparate results makes it that much more difficult to root for them.

No, Really ... Who Am I Rooting For?

2009-10-28T22:32:00.002-04:00

DJ emailed me earlier today and and asked me that tried-and-true hypothetical question - gun to my head, who am I rooting for in this World Series? I answered her back eloquently (she even told me so!) and I meant to transcribe to the blog, but got caught up with other things.

As I was watching Game 1, Rockstar sent me a text with his thoughts:

Me? I go phillies.
1) You beat me out, ya better go take it.
2) National league ball.
3) Underdogs.

That's all I got

Great minds think alike. Here's what I told DJ hours before Rockstar's text.

Yes, its the worst match-up for a Mets fan and I'm not happy for either team. But maintaining a rooting interest in this World Series isn't going to be difficult at all. Who am I rooting for?

...

the Phillies.

No contest, really. I almost always root for the National League in the World Series because I am a National League guy. The Mets, as the product of the first expansion, don't have "historical rivals" like the original 16 franchises do. Therefore, the Phillies aren't exactly bitter rivals - you'd be hard pressed to find another five-year period in Met history where both teams didn't suck.

And what have the Phillies really done to the Mets anyway? Am I supposed to be mad that they won the NL East by playing like men down the stretch in 2007 and 2008 while the Mets played like little girls? Nope. That's all on the Mets.

So when I get home tonight after the gym - yes, I'm going to the gym first - I'm sitting down with a cold beer and putting on my Cliff Lee jersey. Go Phils!!

Who Am I Rooting For?

2009-10-26T11:56:00.007-04:00

That's a question that I've been asked several times in the last few days. With the Yankees and the Phillies kicking off the World Series on Wednesday night, friends and family have been keen to find out how I will manage my emotions for the next week to 10 days.

Do I root for the Yankees, by virtue of the fact that they represent New York and that they will be trying to derail a bitter rival's quest for back-to-back championships? Do I root for the Phillies, who by winning the Series would shut the mouths of the legions of "diehard" Yankee fans that have suddenly re-appeared this year?

My answer so far has been that I will simply be rooting for a meteor to strike Yankee Stadium right before the first pitch of Game 1 is thrown. My real answer is a lot more complex.

In a perverse way, I am actually glad that the Yankees and Phillies are their respective league champions. It's a nightmare scenario for Mets fans, of course, but it is also a nightmare scenario for ownership and management. The Wilpons seem to react only to shame and embarrassment, and watching the Mets' crosstown rivals do battle with the three-time NL East champions allows those feelings to cut even more deeply.

Fred Wilpon is still more interested in enjoying his debilitating Jackie Robinson/Brooklyn Dodgers fetish than he is with satisfying his own franchise's fanbase. Jeff Wilpon is still too obsessed trying to convince himself that he isn't the product of blatant and outright nepotism to hire the best management people available and to let them work free from his interference.

The result? The fanbase is disgusted and demoralized, baseball operations are a mess from top to bottom and the Mets are a 70-win team that inexplicably thinks that it's just a few bad breaks away from being a 95-win team. Meanwhile, the Yankees and the Phillies - two organizations that are run better than the Mets in every single facet imaginable - are squaring off for a championship.

The Wilpons deserve this, even if Mets fans do not.

So I am rooting for a thrilling seven-game series, one that captivates the imagination of the nation and vaults both the Yankees and the Phillies into the national spotlight, cementing their status as the two iconic teams of their respective leagues. I don't even care who wins. I just want it to be crystal clear to every baseball fan, even two people as remarkably dense as Fred and Jeff Wilpon, just how irrelevant the Mets have become in comparison.

From there, I am rooting for change.

I am rooting for the 2009 World Series to mark the turning point in the historical timeline of the New York Mets. If the Mets first took the field as a member of the National League in 1962, let that season become known as 47 B.A. (before The Awakening). Let the year 2010 become 1 A.A. - the year in which this franchise began the rebuilding process in earnest and laid the foundation for becoming the most intelligently-run sports franchise in American sports history.

It can be done. The Mets have a beautiful new stadium that, with several important design tweaks, can become a monstrous revenue generator that the fanbase can actually be proud of. The Mets have a television station that can showcase their product on a daily basis and inspire a new generation of fans to declare their loyalty to the Orange and Blue.

The Mets have financial resources unmatched by anyone except the Yankees - and the potential revenues of both franchises are a lot closer than either the Wilpons or the Mets fans would like to admit. If it is true that the Mets have in fact made a small profit from the Madoff schemes, then money truly is no longer an object.

From that foundation, the structure can be built. Ownership can ask a simple question - "who are the New York Mets?" - and relentlessly go about the task of answering that question in a way that will make this franchise perennial championship contenders.

Older baseball fans remember "The Dodger Way" and "The Oriole Way." It was the blueprint of an organization that dictated how a professional ballplayer should look and act from the moment he signed a minor-league contract to the day he left the organization. It is time to create "The Met Way" - and for that to mean something other than being an injury-prone and overpaid underachiever who is as trained in the science of baseball fundamentals as he is in the science of quantum physics.

Mets fans, turn on your televisions on Wednesday night. Enjoy a terrific matchup between two great teams and two great starting pitchers (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee). Do it again for Game 2 and Game 3 and for every game thereafter. Enjoy the game of baseball played at its highest level.

And then, when it is over, regardless of who wins and who loses, turn your eyes to Fred and Jeff Wilpon. Ask them, in whatever fashion you can, these very simple questions.

When are you going to stop tearing at the very fabric of this organization and trying to stitch it back together with temporary and insufficient patches? When are you going to put your gigantic egos aside and contribute more of the only thing that a baseball owner should ever contribute to the operation of a franchise - money? When are you going to realize that you are an active and ongoing detriment to the good fortune of this organization and that you are driving away an entire generation of Mets fans in the process?

When are you going to turn the New York Mets into winners - just like the Yankees and the Phillies are?

Alfredo Aceves

2009-10-15T11:15:00.002-04:00

I love the way that Yankees manager Joe Girardi has used reliever Alfredo Aceves this season. On a team with three great bullpen options already, Girardi showed a great deal of faith in Aceves and was rewarded handsomely for doing so.

Aceves made only 42 relief appearances in 2009, yet pitched over 80 innings in relief. In 15 of those appearances, Aceves recorded seven or more outs (pitching 2.1 innings or more). Such usage is practically unheard of in modern baseball, which stacks bullpens with specialists and role players who are rarely asked to earn more than three outs at a time.

Why is this a big deal? First and foremost, Aceves was effective. He won 10 games and finished with a 1.024 WHIP - a wildly successful year for a relief pitcher. What Aceves's usage suggests, however, may be far more important than the results during the 2009 regular season. It is a reminder that relievers can be effective in longer stints, given the proper rest between appearances.

Instead of handing the sixth, seventh and eighth innings of a game to three different pitchers with varying degrees of effectiveness, a reliever like Aceves can bridge the mythical gap to the closer all by himself. A team that features a traditional closer and multiple relievers with the ability to pitch two or three innings in a single appearance can concentrate the majority of relief innings pitched in its best options. This would reduce a manager's reliance not only on specialists, but also on the fifth and sixth-best options in the bullpen.

It's simple, really - the more you use your best relievers, the better your team will be.

There is another perspective to consider, of course. Why was the fourth-best reliever in the Yankees' bullpen used like the best relief aces from the 1970s, and each of the better options Girardi had were used in more traditional roles?

Mariano Rivera is unquestionably a better reliever than Aceves, although considering his age and the mileage on his arm, I understand why Girardi would be reluctant to use him over extended periods of time. Phil Coke is a lefthander whose splits suggest that he would be exposed over longer appearances. (He held southpaws to a .195/.218/.366 line, while righties posted a more successful .227/.346/.432 line.)

There's no excuse, however, for not using Philip Hughes in a similar fashion as Aceves. Hughes has been a starter for most of his professional career, so there's no reason to believe that he could not handle an extended workload in a single appearance. Instead of annointing Hughes the "set-up man," the Yankees would've been better served by using Aceves and Highes in the same fashion. Anytime from the sixth inning on in a close game, Girardi could've called on either man to pitch multiple innings in the hopes that Rivera could be used to shut the door.

For his part, Hughes could've made fewer appearances, but pitched more innings. The back of the bullpen - guys like David Robertson and Brian Bruney - could've made fewer appearances and pitched in less important situations.

The Yankees won 103 games this season, so there's not too much to quibble with, but the margin of error is much smaller in the playoffs. If the Angels win the ALCS because of successful at-bats against the likes of Robertson and Bruney, Girardi will have the entire off-season to wonder if traditional thinking did his team in.

God Save Us All

2009-10-15T09:55:00.002-04:00

"Discipline is training which makes punishment unnecessary." - Carolina Military Institute

I lack the discipline required to manage a solid and consistently updated blog. This is an unfortunate truth that I have had difficulty admitting to myself. I spend too much time in front of a computer at my day job, which makes me reluctant to get back in front of a computer when I get home and focus enough to put together a well-written and coherent post on a regular or even a semi-regular basis.

Here are a couple of quick hits that I hope to expand upon at some point, but honestly do not know if I ever will:

* LCS picks - Angels in 6 and Dodgers in 7.
* If Peter Gammons is to be believed - and I have no reason to believe that he shouldn't be - Jeff Wilpon is the de facto general manager of the New York Mets. What a frightening concept.

I'm still going to try to do a more detailed preview of the two league championship series, which I think are both going to be wonderfully entertaining affairs. I'm also sticking to the script I laid out earlier in the month for the off-season. I just hope things slow down enough here that I can write a little more frequently.

Playoff Predictions: Phillies vs. Rockies

2009-10-08T23:01:00.000-04:00

Boringgggggggggggggg.

Prediction: Phillies in 5.

Playoff Predictions: Cardinals vs. Dodgers

2009-10-06T19:50:00.002-04:00

The American League boasts three evenly matched playoff teams that, if they suddenly jumped ship to the Senior Circuit, would run roughshod over the competition. The National League has four evenly matched teams, one of whom will survive a two-round playoff gauntlet and will immediately be tabbed as an underdog in the World Series.

The Dodgers are a more well-rounded team, but the Cardinals boast three starters that give them a puncher's chance in any series they play. Chris Carpenter came back from two injury-plagued years to claim the mantle of best starter in the National League. He is the ace of the St. Louis staff, but is capably backed up by emerging star Adam Wainwright and reclamation project Joel Pineiro. The front three in the rotation combined for a 51-24 record; they hold the key to St. Louis's postseason fortunes.

Los Angeles had the best team ERA in the National League, but the pitching staff is in flux. Hiroki Kuroda will miss the Division Series with various ailments, paving the way for a Game 3 start from punching bag Vincente Padilla. Chad Billingsley has fallen apart since mid-June, but he should be on the mound for Game 4. The Dodgers really need Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw to win the first two games of the series, and then will hope that they can steal a win in St. Louis.

The Dodgers may have the best lineup in the National League, but manager Joe Torre has to shuffle the lineup to get Rafael Furcal out of the leadoff spot. Torre has written Furcal's name at the top of his lineup card 105 times this season, which means he has batted his eighth or ninth worst hitter at the top of the lineup each and every time he has done so. The Dodgers can no longer afford to make this mistake, especially in a short series.

Other than Furcal and Russell Martin, who is inexplicably regressing at age 26, the Dodgers have solid, professional hitters at every other spot on the diamond. Manny Ramirez still inspires fear, even if he has not been the same since returning from his drug suspension. Andre Ethier may be the best hitter on the team, even if Matt Kemp still has the biggest upside. Kemp still hasn't completely solved right-handers yet; expect Carpenter, Wainwright and Pineiro to control him throughout this series.

The Cardinals have Albert Pujols, of course, which means they have the best hitter in baseball in their lineup. Matt Holliday was rejuvenated after a mid-summer trade from Oakland, and he put up a .353/.419/.604 line as a Cardinal. It makes for a devastating combo, but St. Louis simply doesn't have anyone else in the lineup to be feared. Ryan Ludwick started hitting after July 1, but even then only put up an .802 OPS. Yadier Molina had a career year offensively, and still finished with a .383 SLG.

To make matters worse, the Cardinals have struggled against left-handers this season - and they will be facing southpaws Wolf and Kershaw in the first two games of this series. They will absolutely need to beat one of the lefties in L.A. to win this series. I just can't see a scenario where the Cardinals come back to Dodger Stadium in Game 5 and beat a rested Wolf or Kershaw. I also can't see a scenario where the Cardinals lose a game at home against Padilla and Billingsley.

Prediction: Cardinals in 4.

Playoff Predictions: Red Sox vs. Angels

2009-10-04T18:32:00.003-04:00

This matchup is the perfect argument against a Best-of-5 series. I want to see two terrific teams like this playing a full series to determine the winner, and a race to three wins always feels somewhat artificial to me. What you have are two very evenly matched teams that, if they were in the National League, would have over 100 wins and would be prohibitive World Series favorites. I give the edge to the Angels, though, mostly because I believe they are the most dangerous team in baseball right now.

The acquisition of Scott Kazmir in late August may wind up bringing the Angels their second championship of the decade. Kazmir struggled early in the season before spending a month on the disabled list, but put up a 6-5 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.181 WHIP since returning to action at the end of June. He joins John Lackey, Jered Weaver and Joe Saunders in the Angels' playoff rotation, which for my money is the best foursome in the American League.

The Angels can hit too - eight of their nine regulars are hitting .285 or better. There isn't a lot of power (only Kendry Morales has more than 30 home runs), but every single player in that lineup is a threat with a bat in their hand. The Angels like to run (third in the American League in stolen bases) - and Boston catchers Jason Varitek and Victor Martinez will be hard-pressed to keep the Halos from running wild. Keep a close eye on second baseman Howie Kendrick, who has put up a .348/.391/.524 line since June 1; I'm predicting that this postseason will be Kendrick's coming-out party.

This team's one weakness is its bullpen. Brian Fuentes has not had a good year, despite notching 48 saves. He nearly lost his job earlier this month to Kevin Jepsen, and manager Mike Scioscia is smart enough not to blow a playoff series by playing the "proven veteran" card.

Boston, meanwhile, will put up a tremendous fight. Staff ace Josh Beckett has a 6.02 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP in his last nine starts, but his postseason track record suggests that he will put it all together when the lights are brightest. He has been surpassed by Jon Lester as the titular staff ace, and the Red Sox have a number of intriguing options (Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Paul Byrd chief among them) to fill out the postseason rotation. Buchholz has already been tapped as the third starter; manager Terry Francona may not trust Matsuzaka or Byrd enough to give them a start in this series.

The Sox have a better bullpen, even though closer Jonathan Papelbon has had an off-year. They do have a live young arm in Daniel Bard, who could play an important role in October. Throw veterans like Billy Wagner, Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima and Ramon Ramirez into the mix, and don't be surprised if Francona asks his relievers for four innings of shutdown ball at least once in this series.

Boston has a terrific lineup as well, with a starting nine that compares favorably with the Angels. The key may be David Ortiz, who has 28 home runs this season but has struggled otherwise. If he can find a way to channel his former greatness for three weeks, the Sox could win their third championship in six years.

Both teams can hit, but I believe in the Angels' pitching more than I believe in the Red Sox. This series will go the distance, but the Angels will win Game 5 in front of their home fans and will advance to meet the Yankees in the ALCS.

Prediction: Angels in 5

EDIT: An anonymous reader kindly pointed out that Justin Masterson was traded to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal, so he obviously won't be on the postseason roster. I think I confused Masterson with Michael Bowden, another hard-throwing youngster who isn't quite as advanced as Masterson and is unlikely to make the Sox's playoff bullpen.

Playoff Predictions: Yankees vs. Tigers/Twins

2009-10-03T11:47:00.005-04:00

The Tigers lead the Twins by one game with two to go, so the American League Central championship is still up for grabs. The winner will face the Yankees, baseball's only 100-game winner. Neither team has a chance.

The Yankees, after eight years without a championship, have assembled a starting lineup good enough to slug them into the Promised Land. Melky Cabrera (.273/.336/.418 with 13 HRs) is the closest thing to a weak spot in the lineup; every other position player has an OPS+ of at least 122. Gopherball-prone starters simply will not survive three turns through the Yankees' lineup, not with seven regulars boasting at least 20 home runs.

The pitching is a little less stellar - the only hope that a team has of beating the Yankees in a short series is to bludgeon them to death. CC Sabathia (19-8, 3.37 ERA, 1.104 WHIP) is the ace of the staff, but has a 7.92 ERA in five postseason starts. AJ Burnett and Andy Pettitte boast WHIPs north of 1.35 in 2009; good lineups have the potential to send both to the showers before the end of the fifth inning. Can Joba Chamberlain be an effective fourth starter - or will the Yankees have to pull him after 3 innings to "pwotect his widdle arm?"

The bullpen is unheralded, but still effective. Mariano Rivera remains a nonpareil; Phil Hughes has done a wonderful job setting him up. The middle relievers are relatively unknown, but surprisingly good. Prospective conquerors would do well to knock the starters out quickly and not to put the game in the hands of the bullpen.

It is amazing that the Twins are still in this race, considering the relatively mediocre roster that Minnesota began the season with and the injuries they've suffered from since. Only Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn have made 30 starts for the Twins, and only Baker (15-9, 4.18 ERA, 1.186 WHIP) has pitched well. Things got so bad in the rotation that Minnesota had to import Carl Pavano from the Indians to help down the stretch. Admit it - you want to see Carl Pavano walk to the mound to pitch a playoff game in Yankee Stadium, don't you?

The Twins' offense is carried by MVP candidate Joe Mauer (.367/.442/.593 with 28 home runs), who is putting up offensive numbers that put even Mike Piazza's best seasons to the test. Only Mike Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are legitimate major league hitters outside of Mauer; the Twins will be without former American League MVP Justin Morneau for the rest of the season.

The Tigers have a better chance against the Yankees, but only if they can set their rotation up to pitch Justin Verlander in Games 1 and 5. Verlander is scheduled to pitch the final game of the season, but if the Tigers can win on Saturday they can save him for the opener of the Yankee series.

Verlander, after a hiccup in 2008, has become the true ace he was predicted to be. The league leader in strikeouts with 264, Verlander also boasts an 18-9 record with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.179 WHIP. He can go nine against any lineup, even one as powerful as the Yankees, which is a good idea considering the sorry state of the Tigers' bullpen.

The key to a Yankees-Tigers series will be starters Edwin Jackson and Rick Porcello. Each have had breakout seasons, but neither are playoff-tested and Jackson in particular has faded badly in the second half. If each had to pitch twice against the Yankees (as they would in a seven-hgame series), Detriot wouldn't have a prayer. But because both have the potential to put up seven innings of one-run ball against any team in baseball, the Tigers could make a short series interesting. No team in baseball wants to face Justin Verlander on full rest in the deciding game of a playoff series.

Predictions: Yankees in 3 (if they play the Twins); Yankees in 4 (if they play the Tigers)

Sifting Through the Wreckage

2009-10-02T11:28:00.002-04:00

September is a very difficult month for student conduct administrators, and this has been my most difficult September in five years. Even if the entire Mets organization hadn't disintegrated into something resembling a cruel joke, I still wouldn't have been updating much here.

Things are finally starting to slow down now, so I'm hopeful that I can get back to writing on a more regular basis. The off-season plan is simple:

* Playoff Previews for each round
* A look at each player on the Mets' 40-man roster and their performance in 2009
* A series of articles loosely collected together and called "The Blueprint" - a look at how I would like to see a major league baseball franchise being run

I'll continue doing Roster Moves, of course, since I am expecting a lot of player movement this off-season. I can only hope that there will be another general manager making the moves, but I am resigned to three more years of Omar Minaya and one more year of Jerry Manuel. The future of this franchise looks very, very bleak right now.

Question For You

2009-09-17T13:15:00.002-04:00

Is Bobby Parnell a major league pitcher?
I don't think so. He has failed as a starter (1-5 with a 7.93 ERA and a 1.899 WHIP in eight starts). He has failed a reliever (2-3 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.599 WHIP in 54 appearances). He hasn't put up a good season in the minor leagues since he was 20 years old and pitching in Brooklyn. He has one pitch - a 95-plus fastball without enough movement - and has still not developed a secondary pitch.

To the Parnell fans out there, what have you seen in this guy that makes you think he will ever be an effective major league pitcher?

Roster Moves: September Call-Ups

2009-09-12T13:40:00.002-04:00

September call-ups are the only thing worth watching for when your team is nearly 20 games out of first place. The Mets have only called up two players so far, in part since David Wright and Carlos Beltran have come off the disabled list since the month began. Of course, when you have the worst team in both the International League and the Eastern League, your minor league system isn't exactly brimming with major-league ready talent.

Josh Thole is the guy getting most of the attention, after a terrific season at Binghamton during which he put up a .328/.395/.422 line as a catcher. This is the second straight season in which he's posted a good batting average and shown patience at the plate - which in my book means it is time to start considering him a prospect.

He has started four games so far, all against right-handers, because Jerry Manuel inexplicably thinks that Thole needs to be protected from left-handed pitchers. Jesus Christ, why start turning a 22-year-old into a platoon player from the moment he hits the major leagues? Why not let Thole show whether or not he can hit left-handed pitching?

Thole isn't the next Matt Wieters by any stretch - he has just eight home runs in over 400 minor-league games and there are questions about his defense and throwing arm. That's fine; Thole needs to spend 2010 in Buffalo anyway. The Mets cannot make the same mistake they made with Daniel Murphy - it would be foolish and short-sighted to let Thole start next season with the big club.

We are talking about the Mets, of course, so Omar Minaya will probably annoint him the starting catcher on November 1 and fail to sign the one-year stopgap that the team needs instead.

The other call-up is Tobi Stoner, a guy I've kept an eye on for a few years. He dominated as a starter for Brooklyn in 2006 and has shown steady improvement across multiple levels over the past three seasons. Mack thinks that Stoner's future may be as a long reliever, and I like to defer to Mack when it comes to Mets' minor leaguers. He's not ready for the big leagues yet, either, but that's OK - he's another player who needs to be a Bison next season.

STARTING PITCHERS
Mike Pelfrey
Bobby Parnell
Pat Misch
Tim Redding
Nelson Figueroa
Johan Santana - DL
Oliver Perez - DL
John Maine - DL
Jon Niese - DL
Fernando Nieve - DL

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Sean Green
Ken Takahashi
Elmer Dessens
Lance Broadway
Tobi Stoner
JJ Putz - DL

CATCHERS
Josh Thole
Brian Schneider
Omir Santos

INFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Fernando Tatis
Anderson Hernandez
Wilson Valdez
Carlos Delgado - DL
Jose Reyes - DL
Alex Cora - DL
Ramon Martinez - DL

OUTFIELDERS
Gary Sheffield
Angel Pagan
Jeff Francouer
Nick Evans
Cory Sullivan
Jeremy Reed
Carlos Beltran
Fernando Martinez - DL

RBI Totals Tell Very Little

2009-09-11T22:47:00.004-04:00

I'm resigned to the fact that Jeff Francouer is going to be the Mets' right fielder in 2010, but I don't have to like it.

Yes, he has six hits in his last eight at-bats and his batting average as a Met has moved over .300. He still has just 12 home runs in 510 at-bats on the season, and another year is going to go by where Francouer's supposed power stroke still hasn't manifested itself. His next 30-home run season will still be his first. There's no point in even going into his inability to take a walk - in all Francouer is doomed to be a bad #7 hitter for the rest of his career.

People still pay attention to RBI totals, and Francouer does have 33 in 55 games as a Met. But, as Yahoo's Jeff Passan points out, that doesn't mean much either:

Jeff Francouer has split time this year with the offensively challenged Braves and Mets, yet has the fifth most at-bats with RISP (157). Francoeur's RISP plate appearances are lower because he’s walked just 10 times. His average is puny: .248 with only two homers, but still good for 53 RBIs.

The Readers Strike Back: L Millz

2009-09-07T02:51:00.003-04:00

Angst writes: you just love that racial boogeyman don't ya? Can't believe I gotta side with the Wilpons but when your fledgling star sings bitch, ho and nigga on a rap album and you wanna sell a product to parents and children, they;re not racist, they're business men. F*** this moral safe house where everyone does it so he should be excused.

(I edited out that bad word beginning with F, because nobody should use bad words.)

I know you live in a fantasy world where racism ended 20 years ago, but the rest of us don't live there. To deny that the elements of racism exist is to turn a blind eye to a problem that will never go away. I ask you: are those dirty words really that big of a deal? I mean, if David Wright sang in a punk band and released a cover of "It's So Easy" by Guns N' Roses, would he have gotten the same treatment as Milledge?

Angst responds: I don't live in a fantasy world, of course racism exists. but yours is a perceived racism, a convenient excuse to lay blame. This is the organization that gave New York its first and second black managers and has poured millions of dollars into non-white players. When David Wright fronts a punk cover band you let me know. David though never angered his teammates and showed up the opponent, he didn't have to be investigated prior to draft for statutory rape and Wright don't show up an hour before game time. When the organization has to answer as to why one of their players records a song celebrating guns, drug use, and the objectification of woman, its a fast ticket out of town. I'm not the censorship police, but he gave management enough justification to trade him. To scream racism is narrow minded. Save your outrage for honest to God bigotry.

Like most people, you have to get your facts straight about Milledge.

* If I leave a handwritten note at your garage that says "Joe Falzarano molests collies," it doesn't mean you should be branded as someone who was investigated for bestiality. Therefore, perhaps you shouldn't be so quick to brand Milledge as someone investigated "prior to the draft for statutory rape" based on such incredibly flimsy evidence.

He was the target of an anonymous and ultimately unfounded accusation - an unsigned handwritten note that suggested he was receiving sexual favors from 13-year-old students at his high school. As that witch-hunt played out, Milledge (who was 17 at the time) eventually admitted to having sex with his 15-year-old girlfriend. That's it. Read the story here.

Think of the term "statutory rape" and what it implies. Then realize what Lastings Milledge actually did and realize how inappropriate it is to apply that term to it. Google "Genarlow Wilson" to find out what can happen to black teenagers from the South who hook up with girls two years younger than them. Luckily for Lastings, he is from Florida and not Georgia, and didn't end up in jail for the heinous crime of getting some before the age of 18.

By the way, isn't it funny how you never hear of a white athlete getting caught up in a "scandal" like this? I guess white kids never have sex before the age of 18, and even then it only happens with other 18-year olds. Oh wait, I might be accused of conjuring up the racial boogeyman again instead of saving my outrage for honest to God bigotry. I'll be curious to see which category the Wilson case will fall into in your eyes.

* Milledge exchanged high-fives with fans when he returned to his position after hitting his first major league home run to tie the game with two outs in the bottom of the tenth inning. He didn't show anyone up - he shared the enjoyment of a memorable moment on the baseball field with some of the paying customers. This is supposed to be indicative of a negative character issue? Where does this outrage over the perceived "showing up" of an opponent even come from? Who, exactly, decided that ignoring the fans during the game is considered a sign of good character, while engaging with them in the moment is a sign of bad character?

* Professional baseball is a job. Do you show up at your job two or three hours early each day so you can get better at it? Or do you show up on time, do your work and go home? I know you aren't pulling daily 11-hour shifts so you can become the best worker in your garage. Why, then, does Lastings Milledge have to show up early at this job?

Milledge's comments from the linked article: "You know, there's always a thing where, 'Oh, rookies have to be here 2-1/2 or three hours before stretch.' No. I'm not gonna be here three hours before stretch. If you're here and you get your work in, it shouldn't matter how early you're at the field. You know what you need to do. That's fine. You don't have to be at the park three, four hours before the park if you don't want. You don't see nobody clocking in three or four hours before they have to show up to work. So, I mean, some people feel like they have to get here to read the newspaper or do crossword puzzles or get their mind ready. I feel like I come to the park, I have 45 minutes of stuff I have to do to get prepared for practice and get ready for the game. Five minutes might be watching videos. Fifteen minutes might be going in the cage. And then getting whatever other work I need."

* On the rare occasions when you're late for work, does your boss single you out, publicly embarrass you and question your commitment to your job? Do your co-workers use your lateness as an opportunity to advance a negative agenda about you? Lastings Milledge's former co-workers did. You are continuing to do so.

* Milledge didn't record a song about guns, drug use, and the objectification of women, as you baselessly claim. He produced a song on his personal rap label for a childhood friend named Manny D called "Bend Ya' Knees." And yes, on that track he used language that he should have his mouth washed out with soap for. But there wasn't one lyric in that song that glorified guns and drug use. It doesn't excuse the objectification, but it's one more example of how, with Lastings Milledge, his critics are always willing to play fast and loose with the truth in an attempt to denigrate his charcater.

So let's review. Lastings Milledge had sex with his girlfriend as a teenager. He slapped hands with ecstatic fans after hitting his first major league home run. He goes to work on time instead of a few hours early. He said some bad words on his friend's rap album. "Character" issues like this have been used to paint him as a brooding malcontent, if not an outright thug.

But if I think that some of this silliness might have something to do with Milledge being black, I'm being narrow-minded.

L-Millz: Prelude

2009-09-06T11:56:00.003-04:00

He's hitting cleanup for the Pittsburgh Pirates these days, but that says more about the quality of the Pirate lineup than it does about the quality of the player. But Lastings Milledge is raking right now, and the Pirates are benefitting from looking past the silly things that have been whispered and written about him during his brief professional career.

Milledge was acquired by Pittsburgh at the end of June, rescued from a Washington Nationals organization that decided seven games in 2009 said more about the player than 138 games did a season before. Washington badly mishandled Milledge in 2009 - they tried to change his approach at the plate before the season started and banished him to Triple-A when he didn't take to it quickly enough.

Things got worse from there - Milledge broke his hand while in Syracuse, which washed away most of the first half of the season. He was only beginning to make his way back when the Pirates traded Nyger Morgan to Washington for him as part of a four-player deal. Now Morgan's season is over, ironically from a broken hand, and it is Milledge who looks like a budding star again.

Milledge had two more hits for the Pirates last night, and has a .328/.378/.448 line with Pittsburgh in 32 games. The power still isn't there yet - Milledge has just eight doubles and two home runs in 155 plate appearances this season. If he isn't going to hit 25 home runs a season (and at this point it looks like he's going to be more of a 10-to 20-homer type), Milledge is going to need to hit 30 or 40 doubles a year to still be a regular at this level.

He seems to have settled in as Pittsburgh's left fielder, however, and should be the Opening Day starter in 2010. Perhaps a full season without being bad-mouthed and jerked around by his organization will finally allow Milledge to reach his full potential.

His minor-league track record suggests future stardom - he hit well at every level of the Mets organization despite being young for most of the leagues he was in. There is still work to be done - Milledge is not a good baserunner, nor a particularly good fielder. These are things that can be taught, or at least improved upon, if someone is willing to work with him.

I've written a lot about Milledge before, because I think he got a raw deal in New York. I think that raw deal was largely a product of overreaction to Milledge's real or perceived maturity issues. I also think that race had something to do with it; too much was written about cornrows and saying bad words in hip-hop tracks to make me think otherwise.

I still believe in Lastings Milledge, and I still believe that he's going to be a star in this league for years to come. As the 2009 Mets stumble to the finish line in this lost and disatrous season, I'd feel a lot better about the future if they had someone like Lastings Milledge to play left field in 2010.

The Readers Strike Back: American League MVP

2009-09-03T14:40:00.002-04:00

DJ writes (via Facebook): Hello Mr Flynn- I agree with you analysis of Joe Mauer's year and I agree that with no major shift in numbers in September that he should get it. The Yankees have played like such a team that it is okay if we dont get the MVP, we'll have the Cy YOUNG and a 27th WORLD SERIES ring- that will have to do.

The Yankees signed Zack Greinke? He leads the American League in ERA, Adjusted ERA+, complete games, shutouts and WHIP (among qualified pitchers). He's also third in innings pitched and second in strikeouts.

CC Sabathia has been very good, and he's leading the league in wins and innings pitched, but Greinke has simply been better. Zack is also making over $10 million less in 2009 ...

Angst writes: Hard to argue against Mauer, but would Texas be where Texas is without Michael Young? He's about to go on the 15 day DL, we're about to find out...

Michael Young has had a terrific season and did so after moving to third base to accommodate Elvis Andrus. He deserves more consideration than he's getting.

Sarcastic Bastard writes: Hands down Mauer gets the nod ... he has been nothing short of unbelievable at the most demanding position in baseball ... Greinke would have probably 18 wins by now if he didn't play for a minor league team ... so he gets the Cy ... despite being a Yankee fan, I have to laugh at the yearly notion that the Yankees are the home to the MVP ... as if it is our right to hoard every piece of hardware because we are the Mighty Pinstripers ......

it's almost as laughable as the Red Sox trying to complain that the Yankees are an Evil Empire that can buy championships...hmm...how many players on the Red Sox of 2004 and 2007 were home grown?

moving on...one could argue that Tex didn't really start going until A-Rod came off the DL...so who really is the more valuable one? and until Jeter stops being a near defensive liability he won't get my blessing for the MVP ... if he does win one, it'll strictly be for his career numbers...not because he is the linchpin to the Yankees offense ...

It pains me to say it, but Jeter has a legitimate claim to MVP. SS is the second most demanding defensive position and the metrics indicate he has been much better defensively this year. Throw in a .333/.399/.480 line with 17 homers and 23 steals, and he belongs in the conversation much more than Teixeira.

DJ retorts: You Met fans are irrational ... Sabathia will get the cy young-mauer will get MVP and that arguement about texeria is bs-you could say that about any 3 and 4 hitter combinaion in baseball history - Tex still has to hit the freaking ball!

We may be irrational, but it doesn't mean we are wrong!

The American League MVP Race

2009-09-02T16:01:00.003-04:00

Let me start this by saying that the American League Most Valuable Player this season has to be Joe Mauer. When you get a .367/.434/.611 line from your catcher - who just happens to have 26 home runs to boot - there really should be no debate.

This is no different that the arguments I would have with people who didn't realize just how good of a hitter Mike Piazza was in his prime - putting up sterling offensive numbers at such a punishing defensive position is exceedingly difficult to do. Piazza was robbed of the MVP in 1997, and you could make a very good case that he should have won in 1995 and 1996 as well.

I've found it amusing then, that there has been any push to consider Mark Teixeira as an MVP candidate over Mauer. Teixeira has had a very good year, although his offensive numbers are slightly down from his previous two campaigns. He has not had a season anywhere near as good as Mauer's, however, and it's not a stretch to say that he hasn't even been the best first baseman in the American League.

Player A: .281/.380/.541 with 32 home runs, 101 RBIs and 67 extra-base hits in 590 plate appearances.
Player B: .314/.358/.597 with 30 home runs, 94 RBIs and 69 extra-base hits in 506 plate appearances.

Player A, of course, is Teixeira. Player B is Kendry Morales, the California Angels' first baseman. Morales, a Cuban defector in his first full season as a starter, is outshining Teixeira in most mainstream offensive categories - although you wouldn't know it if you only read the New York newspapers.

Teixeira has a reputation as an outstanding defensive first baseman, even though Fangraphs has him with a -1.1 UZR this season. (That's not bad, by the way; I don't fully understand Ultimate Zone Rating but it seems to be a preferred defensive statistic among people who are serious about analyzing defensive performance.) Morales, meanwhile, is at 2.7 UZR, which suggests he has been better than Tex in 2009.

There is a school of thought that the MVP has to be from one of the best teams in the league, if not the best team. Personally, I would like to expel every student in that school and burn the building to the ground. But even if you gave that line of thinking some credence, Morales stands with Teixeira, considering both of their teams are on the way to a division title.

It's natural that hometown sportswriters end up pushing hometown guys for major awards. Their readers - who are generally fans of the team that the sportswriter is writing about - want to believe that their guy is the best and that everyone else in the league is a bum. That's where "Teixeira for MVP" stories are born; I suspect that the voters will get it right in November.

The Readers Strike Back:

2009-08-31T12:42:00.002-04:00

Rod writes (via Facebook): Well done...but I would argue that if every owner was more like King George the competitive balance would be restored...George is the only owner willing to take a loss on the budget sheet in exchange for a win in October...George isn't close to being the wealthiest owner...he just cares more about his franchise than he does about his profit margin...

from Poz himself...

Steinbrenner punished himself too. He poured his baseball profits back into the ballclub, sometimes foolishly, sometimes recklessly, but always with the unmistakable intent of winning championships and glorifying the New York Yankees (and if he got a little credit along the way, well, why not?).

Finally, a reader striking back other than TW! What Rod says is almost completely true, save for the fact that we'll never really know if George would've been willing to lose money on the Yankees in a given season if it meant winning a championship. That's because Yankee profits became so enormous after the cable rights deal with MSG in 1988 that Steinbrenner could've routinely plugged another $50 million or so into the payroll any given season and still not taken a loss.

It's easy to forget this, but the Yankees didn't really start outspending everybody until after the strike. It's no coincidence that the team started winning again once the MSG checks began being cashed. Suddenly the Yankees had the money for the biggest free agents, the most expensive international prospects and a minor-league system that spared no expense. Conventional wisdom likes to attibute the onset of the current success cycle to the genius of Gene Michael, with an assist to Steinbrenner bucks, but in reality the "business acumen" of Charles Dolan had as much to do with it as anything.

The payroll disaprity didn't actually manifest itself until George got another taste of the World Series in 1996 - and then tasted the bitterness of defeat in 1997. At that point, the Yankees had the twin financial advantages of the MSG deal and an illegally negotiated apparel deal with Adidas. From that point forward, no one in baseball was going to financially compete with the Bronx Bombers.

Roster Moves: Oh. My. God.

2009-08-31T12:29:00.002-04:00

Presented without further comment, the current version of your 2009 New York Mets:

STARTING PITCHERS
Mike Pelfrey
Bobby Parnell
Pat Misch
Tim Redding
Nelson Figueroa
Johan Santana - DL
Oliver Perez - DL
John Maine - DL
Jon Niese - DL
Fernando Nieve - DL

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Sean Green
Ken Takahashi
Elmer Dessens
Lance Broadway
JJ Putz - DL

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Omir Santos

INFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Luis Castillo
Fernando Tatis
Anderson Hernandez
Wilson Valdez
Carlos Delgado - DL
David Wright - DL
Jose Reyes - DL
Alex Cora - DL
Ramon Martinez - DL

OUTFIELDERS
Gary Sheffield
Angel Pagan
Jeff Francouer
Nick Evans
Cory Sullivan
Jeremy Reed
Carlos Beltran - DL
Fernando Martinez - DL

Winning Conventionally

2009-08-31T10:30:00.003-04:00

I'll talk more about this in the off-season, with a series of posts about conventional wisdom in baseball. However, Joe Posnanski nicely summed up my feelings with his Sunday post about the Royals:

"I’ve often said that what frustrates me most about the Royals is their refusal to be unconventional in any way — and the Royals CANNOT WIN conventionally. They just can’t. It’s simple mathematics."

I need to learn more about Game Theory, since I have only a rudimentary understanding of something that may have great benefit on my leisurely pursuits. But Poz's statement falls in line with my limited understanding of a basic postulate - you can't beat someone by playing "their game" if they play it better than you or have more resources than you.

The biggest mistake that small-market teams make is playing by the book. When the Yankees spent $200 million every year, and the Royals spend $50 million a year, who is generally going to come out on top? Well, if the Royals approach the task of winning the exact same way that the Yankees do, they're going to get smoked in the long run.

But if the Royals take the Moneyball theory of exploiting market inefficiencies, and then expand the theory to include exploration of alterative means of roster contruction, player usage and in-game strategy, they put themselves in a position to win.

Oakland's failure to win a World Series in this decade was not a failure of Moneyball's central premise. The failure to expand its application beyond player acquisition is what has doomed the A's. (That and the small sample sizes created by a playoff series, of course.)

Oakland still has a fifth starter. They still have a closer. They still have seven relievers - some of whom are specialists. The manager, Bob Geren, still sacrifices on occasion. His lineups are constructed in ways that do not maximize the skills of the nine players in the lineup card. The general manager, Billy Beane, oversees an organization that stresses uniform pitch counts and innings-pitched limits. Pitchers with unique motions or batters with distinct stances are scrutinized and sometimes compelled to find more conventional styles.

It's not their fault - the A's are trying to do it by the book. So is every other team in baseball, even the ones who cannot win consistently while doing it. It's not just about payroll - it's about the lack of vision to see new ways of doing things and a lack of courage to step outside the box.

That, more than anything, is what keeps the Yankees and a few other teams consistently ahead of the pack. Those teams are richer, but they aren't any smarter. But as long as the rest of the league tilts at windmills and tries to play the game the exact same way as the big boys, they are going to fail.

Jerks!

2009-08-28T10:34:00.004-04:00

Piscano's Brother-in-Law: You gotta lay down the law, otherwise they're gonna make a fool out of you.
Artie Piscano: They're not gonna make a fool out of me. I write it all down in this book. Every f****** nickel, it goes down right here. Receipts, bills, everything's here.
Piscano's Mother: Hey, oh, ah! What's the matter with you? Since when do you talk like that?
Artie Piscano: I'm sorry. Nance gives me trouble, and I'll tell him, screw around with those suitcases and I'll take the eyes out of his freakin' head.
Piscano's Mother: Again!
Artie Piscano: I didn't curse, I said 'freakin head'.

- Casino

My mother reads this blog, so I'm going to try to refrain from using any more profanity in this post. Still, I can't help but saying that the first thing I thought of when I read this last night was "what a (expletive deleted) move!"

There is no way on God's green earth that the Yankees have any legitimate interest in Chris Carter. Mark Teixeira is signed to play first base for the next 200 years, and the Yankees are not going to hand the DH job to a 27-year-old career minor leaguer, not with as much as $40 million coming off their payroll next season.

No, the Yankees claimed Carter on waivers yesterday for one reason only - to stick it to the Red Sox and the Mets. It's been an open secret that Carter was one of the two players going to the Mets in the Billy Wagner deal earlier this week, and Carter was almost certain to see time at first base in September.

For Carter, his development stalls even further - the Red Sox are too loaded at first base and DH to give Carter more than 10 at-bats in September and he certainly won't be on their postseason roster. The Mets won't get a chance to see what he can do for them and his chances of winning a starting job next season just took a hit. It still will not surprise me in the least to see a Carter/Daniel Murphy battle for the first base job in 2010, with Ike Davis as the dark horse in the race.

Also, since the Yankees spitefully claimed Carter on waivers, he will have to remain on Boston's 40-man roster for the rest of the season. It was speculated that the move was done to keep the Red Sox from adding an extra pitcher like Paul Byrd to their roster before September 1, whch would make that pitcher postseason eligible.

Whatever. If the Yankees are afraid that their $220-million train will be derailed by the likes of Paul Byrd, then they have bigger problems to deal with.

The front offices of the Mets and the Red Sox should not let this go so easily. If the Yankees want to play games with the August waiver process, then the Mets and the Sox can do the same. Next August, each team should make a point of claiming every single player on the Yankees' 40-man roster when they tumble through waivers. It will completely block the Yankees' ability to make a trade involving any of those players, and will send a message that the Carter shenanigans were not appreciated.

Artie Piscano: Right now, the way I feel, I'll hit the two of them in the head with a f****** shovel.
Piscano's Mother: All right, take it easy now, take it easy.
Artie Piscano: Mom, I'm sorry, they're beatin' me left and right. Ma, I'm sorry. I'm all upset.
Piscano's Mother (tapping the counter): I know, but that's enough ... You'll get a heart attack like that.
Artie Piscano: You know, I - I'm too upset right now. And - An end has to be put to this.

The Chris Carter Era Begins

2009-08-26T09:07:00.004-04:00

The minor-league operation features the two worst teams at the Triple-A and the Double-A levels. Blue-chip prospects are scarce; even potentially useful major league players are few and far between.

The future is bleak, Mets fans. Yesterday's trade of Billy Wagner to the Boston Red Sox hasn't made it any brighter.

Wagner had to go, of course, for all the reasons I stated earlier in the week. The two minor-leaguers that the Mets got in return, however - believed to be Chris Carter and a player to be named later - are unlikely to blossom into stars.

The Mets could've gotten a better haul for their former closer, but chose not to take on any of the money still owed to Wagner. It was a salary dump, plain and simple, and you get the feeling that the Mets would've taken a tub of New England clam chowder if it meant that they didn't have to pay Wagner one more cent.

It's a simple correlation - the more of Wagner's salary that the Mets were willing to pay, the better package of prospects they would've received in return. That's not to say that the Mets would have gotten back Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard if they paid all of Wagner's salary, but they would've done better than a package featuring a 26-year-old designated hitter who has been buried in Triple-A for four seasons now.

I believe that Carter still falls into the "potentially useful major leaguer" category. His bat is not the problem; the fact that his best defensive position is to the right of the water cooler is what's holding him back.

Nevertheless, Carter will surely see time at first base in September for the Mets and I wouldn't be surprised if he's in the mix for the first-base job in 2010. There's still some hope for him (think of Ty Wigginton's last three seasons), but it's a telling sign that Carter was very far down on the Red Sox's organizational depth chart.

Yesterday's trade was not about making the New York Mets a better baseball team down the road. It was strictly about saving money right now. One can only hope that this is not another sign that the Madoff scandal will negatively affect the club's financial bottom line in the future.

Will It Be "Bye Bye Billy?"

2009-08-24T10:24:00.003-04:00

Last week, I wrote that I was fine with Omar Minaya's decision to keep Gary Sheffield with the Mets for the rest of the season. Billy Wagner, though, is a different story.

Wagner's tenure with the New York Mets must end before the waiver period expires on him tomorrow. He has no future with the team, not with Francisco Rodriguez signed to a multi-year deal and locked in as the Mets' closer. He is not going to be happy as a set-up man - no matter what some fans want to believe - and the Mets aren't going to pay a set-up man $8 million anyway. (Yes, that means JJ Putz won't be with the Mets in 2010, either).

The Boston Red Sox helped out by claiming Wagner on waivers last week, paving the way for his departure. Even if a trade cannot be struck by tomorrow, the Mets can simply let Wagner go to Boston without compensation, saving themselves money for the rest of the year and avoiding the $1 million buyout fee of Wagner's contract in the off-season.

The ideal route for the Mets to go would be to broker a deal with Boston for a decent prospct, but it appears that Wagner himself might be standing in the way.

Wagner has a no-trade clause in his contract, which means he can veto any deal the Mets and the Red Sox try to strike. Ken Rosenthal is reporting that Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow is asking the Sox to guarantee that they won't pick up the $8 million option on Wagner's contract for next season. Stringfellow is also asking Boston not to offer Wagner arbitration when he becomes a free agent; doing so would likely force Wagner's new team to forfeit draft picks to the Red Sox upon signing the new contract.

Boston, quite reasonably, is balking at the request. It's doubtful that they would want to pick up Wagner's option anyway; the Mets will surely decline it if he remains with the team. However, if Wagner is terrific in September and October, the Red Sox may decide they want to exercise the option, if for no other reason then to use him as a trade chip.

If Wagner is declared a Type A free agent, Stringfellow is also asking the Red Sox to voluntarily forfeit two high draft picks so that Wagner's new team won't lose out on them. At some point, Boston General Manager Theo Epstein has to wonder if it's worth picking up $3.5 million in salary and/or trading a prospect to the Mets for a player that is insisting to be allowed to leave at the end of the season without any compensation to the Red Sox.

Minaya is in the uneviable position of trying to author a trade while also trying to convince Wagner to waive his no-trade clause. The one thing he simply cannot do is pull Wagner back if a deal cannot be struck; payroll relief is reason enough to part ways even if the Mets cannot bring back a prospect in return.

With rumors swirling that the Mets' payroll is going to be slashed going into 2010, the way Minaya handles the Wagner situation will be an insight into the club's finanical future. Letting Wagner go without compensation would be the right thing to do, but it will also indicate that the Mets are in a more precarious financial position then they've been letting on.

Role Reversal in LA

2009-08-23T10:26:00.002-04:00

Bill Plaschke wrote about the Jonathan Broxton-George Sherrill job swap in today's LA Times. Here are some of the best quotes:

While Broxton wore a weary grimace afterward, he said he understood.

"We won, so it didn't matter," he said.

While Sherrill wore a shocked stare, he said he could also adjust.

"You try not to think about anything, you just go out there and pitch," he said.

I'd like to think that this is Plaschke taking creative liberties for the sake of his column, but I have to wonder. Relievers are so wedded to the notion of closer, set-up man and specialist that it wouldn't surprise me if Broxton and Sherrill were a little disoriented afterwards. That's what happens when reliever roles are defined by what inning it is and not by what reliever is most likely to get the outs you need.

After [Charlie] Haeger started the eighth inning by walking Sam Fuld, the heart of the Cubs' order was due up, and a right-hander was needed.

Milton Bradley, a switch-hitter, hits nearly 100 points worse against righties, while Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez hit right-handed.

Torre said Broxton was a better bet in that situation, so he was brought into the game, thrilling all those baseball thinkers who believe that a closer should pitch the most important inning of the game, not necessarily the last inning of the game.

Yes, I have to admit that I was a little thrilled watching the Game Tracker yesterday and seeing Broxton's name pop up in the eighth to replace Haeger. At that point, I thought Torre was going to push Broxton to give him a six-out save, another concept I believe strongly in. It turns out that Torre was playing more of a match-up game with his closer, but it still shows a willingness to engage in unconventional thinking for the good of the team.

I can't give Torre too much credit, though. Sherrill has been a closer in Baltimore before, which I'm sure that the manager took into consideration. Would Torre have been so willing to use Broxton in the eighth inning if his ninth-inning options did not include a reliever with closing experience? I have my doubts.

So how do they act now? What happens next?

More than any other player, relief pitchers hunger for defined roles. They set their minds to it. They base their routines on it.

This is particularly true for relatively inexperienced relievers such as Broxton and Sherrill, and even though Torre said the switch was temporary, you know they are both thinking about it this very minute ...

"I don't think it will be an issue," Torre said. "If somebody gets offended by pitching to the 3-4-5 hitters in the eighth inning, they're not the person I think they are."

Perfectly stated. How selfish would Broxton look if he started complaining about occasionally being used outside of his artifically conceived role? How weak-minded would he appear if, being used as something other than the modern closer, Broxton moaned about being used outside of his comfort zone?

Today's relievers hunger for defined roles for one reason and one reason only - the dollar signs that come attached to that role. Closers make more money than eighth-inning set-up men, who make more than seventh-inning set-up men, who make more than specialists. Relievers crave the usage hierarchy because the higher they go on the pecking chain, the closer they get to the almighty save.

Today's general managers will overpay for relievers based on how many saves they earn, even at the expense of WHIP, K/9 rates and other peripherals. (See Minaya, Omar.) Every team in baseball is on a quest to find the next Mariano Rivera and will overpay anyone whoever they think will bring similar results.

Guess what? The "next Mariano Rivera" doesn't exist! It's looking for the next Babe Ruth and expecting the guy to pitch AND play right field at a superb level. Rivera is a once-in-a-generation talent, whose greatness has eclipsed his competitors by leaps and bounds.

Instead of trying to find the next Rivera, baseball teams need to find a way to get the same results without resorting to the exact same method. If general managers suddenly started looking at, say, inherited runners stranded as a measure of quality in a relief pitcher, today's closers would suddenly start complaining about their roles. (I'm not advocating this, just using it as an example.)

If the save became seen as what it is - an antiquated statistic that tells you very little about a reliever's performance - every reliever in the league would suddenly begin lobbying to become a set-up man.

The Readers Strike Back: Jeff Francouer and Remuneration

2009-08-22T21:14:00.004-04:00

TW writes: Again, I ask since you ole'd right around it during your attack, should we non-tender (Jeff Francouer) and worry about 4 positions instead of 3 next year, when, we all know the Wilpon's are going to reign (sic) in the dollars spent?

The only reason I do not think the Mets should non-tender Jeff Francouer is that I don't think there is another better alternative, given the precarious financial situation. You correctly point out that the Mets already have to improve in an least three positions (although I'm willing to give Daniel Murphy another shot at first base next season) and that the Wilpons are extremely unlikely to spend $140 million again in 2010.

Francouer has done better than I expected in New York - although five walks in 153 plate apearances is simply disgraceful. He's no special leader, either, or did he suddenly the discover the Fountain of Leadership when boarding the Delta Shuttle from Atlanta to New York? The Mets aren't going to be a good team next season anyway, so having Francouer in the lineup won't keep them out of the playoffs. They can bat him sixth, watch him put up another .270/.300/.400 campaign and hopefully non-tender him after next season.

TW writes: By the way, this is twice you used my material for your purposes, a third time will require payment.

Good luck collecting on that!

FOX And MLB Have A Negative Effect On My Quality Of Life

2009-08-22T19:04:00.004-04:00

I didn't get to actually watch the Dodgers-Cubs game, of course. Nationally televised games on FOX are completely blacked out if the network chooses to show another game in your market.

So instead of having my choice between Dodgers-Cubs on FOX and Yankees-Red Sox on YES, I only got the local match-up on network TV because YES wasn't allowed to show the Yankees. It's a ridiculous way of doing business - not at all surprising, considering that the decision is being made by executives at FOX and MLB.

One can't reasonably expect a national television network to act in anything other than its own interests when putting together its programming schedule. FOX, of course, has only two gods - ratings and advertising dollars. The network's exclusivity deal steals games from the local cable affiliates and forces fans in baseball markets to watch teams they can watch every other day of the week - but that's not FOX's problem.

That's why, here in New York, I get eight Yankee games and eight Met games on Saturday afternoons in the summer. New York fans with cable TV already get to watch every single game that the Yankees and the Mets play. Believe me, it's no extra treat to get 16 of those games called by FOX's national broadcast teams.

There's a simple solution to all this. FOX can simply take the two or three games a week it broadcasts in its exclusive window and televise a game in every market involving teams they wouldn't usually have a chance to see. That means that, in markets that have one of the teams playing in those games, FOX offers the local game back to the local cable outlet (usually a FOX affliliate anyway) and televises one of the other games.

That way, the New York fan could've had a choice between two games today. FOX's ratings in New York would've been lower, but the baseball fan would've benefitted. Take a wild guess what is more important to Major League Baseball.

It is MLB that's more at fault here. In their quest to get every last dollar from the network television deal, the league office put profits ahead of fans and promoting the sport. Again, this is no surprise - MLB is the only professional sports league that still clings to blackout restrictions that govern which games can be broadcast in certain markets.

One of the best things about the new MLB Network has been the ability to watch out-of-market games without paying for the MLB Extra Innings package (which is only the biggest sports rip-off this side of Personal Seat Licenses.) It's a rare sensible move from the league office, one that you wish would eventually extend to how it does business with network partners.

Haeger-mania!

2009-08-22T18:17:00.003-04:00

Is Charlie Haeger the heir apparent to Tim Wakefield? I certainly hope so, because Major League Baseball is a better place when a knuckleballer is part of it.

Wakefield, now 43 years old, was the only pitcher in the league still featuring the knuckler before the Los Angeles Dodgers recalled Haeger earlier this month. Today was his second career start, a nationally televised game against the Chicago Cubs, and Haeger was magnificent.

The rookie scattered three hits over seven-plus innings and kept the Cubs off the scoreboard in what ended a 2-0 Dodgers victory. Haeger finished with 110 pitches - and as a true knuckleballer, you can bet at least 100 of them were his bread-and-butter pitch.

I was particularly impressed that Dodgers manager Joe Torre even let Haeger start the eighth inning, despite holding only a two-run lead and having already thrown 104 pitches. Knuckleballers, since they primarily throw one pitch and do not put signficant strain on their arm while doing so, should be able to pitch deeper into games than starters with a traditional repetoire.

I'm not sure if Torre realizes this, or if he merely lacks confidence in his middle relievers right now, but I choose to believe that the Dodgers manager is aware that he can leave Haeger in longer when his knuckleball is fluttering. Haeger, of course, repaid Torre's faith by promptly walking Sam Fuld to start the eighth and the manager immediately went to Jonathan Broxton to end the threat.

(And when did Broxton become a set-up man? Torre used George Sherrill to close out the game today. Very interesting ...)

Anyway, Haeger has shown more than enough in his last two starts to remain in the Dodgers' rotation for now. I am considering buying the MLB.TV package for the final month of the season just for the chance to watch him pitch.

Sadly, knuckleballers are a dying breed. Wakefield has relied on his knuckler for 17 years, and since he broke into the league no one else has had sustained success with the pitch. The knuckler is thrown by scrunching the second and third fingers higher up on the seams of the ball and pushing the ball toward home plate. Ideally, it is thrown with little or no spin, which makes the ball dip and dive unpredictably.

That unpredictability is exactly why so few pitchers throw knuckleballs today. Sometimes, the pitch simply does not dip or dive and insteads floats right down the middle at about 70 miles an hour. Those pitches usually end up about 420 feet from home plate. It's a risk to throw a knuckleball, and in this increasingly risk-averse society the pitch may not have much of a future.

Charlie Haeger may be the knuckleball's last hope. That alone is enough of a reason to root for his success.