TW writes: For a team that hasn't had a winner since the early 90's, how is it possible they are just now getting to rebuilding their minor leagues? Better yet, when will they have a major league team worth talking about?
The fallacy of the small market team not being able to function in baseball is akin to WMDs in Iraq. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers etc have been paying payroll for teams like the Pirates since the last lockout.
All the "lambasting" about Wilson, Sanchez, and Adam Laroche are we forgetting that they kept the good Laroche!
Since 1993, the Pirates have done everything small-market franchises shouldn't do. The most egregious mistake has been consistently chasing 81 wins a year instead of respecting the importance of a minor-league talent pipeline and truly committing to one serious rebuilding process. Instead, they've consistently signed or traded for mediocre talent to exorbitant contracts in that quixotic quest for .500.
That's why the hand-wringing over Wilson, Sanchez, Laroche, etc. was overblown. All three were free agents after the season. The club held $8 million-plus options on both Wilson and Sanchez, a price tag far beyond their worth. Laroche was making $7 million this year and the Pirates could be forgiven for thinking he was not going to accept a significant reduction in salary at the onset of free agency.
It would be sheer lunacy for any franchise, regardless of available cash flow, to commit more than $20 million in 2010 salary to those three players. That could've represented as much as 40 percent of the total Pirate payroll next year.
For big-market clubs like the Mets, overpaying for mediocrity simply guarantees more mediocrity. For small-market clubs like the Pirates, overpaying mediocrity leads to 65-win seasons.
Andy Laroche, in his first full season, has a .253/.331/.372 line with 5 home runs in 109 games. I like Laroche and still think he can become a good third baseman at the major league level, but he needs to have a bigger year in 2010. Otherwise, the sound of Pedro Alvarez's footsteps will become very loud indeed.
Friday, August 14, 2009
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Good Things From Pittsburgh
By the way, guess which franchise is blithely ignoring slot recommendations and locking up signability picks by forking over huge signing bonuses? The Pittsburgh Pirates, who dropped over $3 million in signing bonuses for fourth-rounder Zach Dodson, sixth-rounder Zack Von Rosenberg, seventh-rounder Trent Stevenson and eighth-rounder Colton Cain.
All four young men were high school pitchers with college scholarships waiting for them - instead, each will go directly into a Pirates' minor-league system that's been steadily rebuilding itself over the last 13 months.
It's easy to debate the wisdom of spending so much money on bonuses for high school pitchers, but the Pirates are making a very bold statement with these signings. First, a franchise run by former MLB draft czar Frank Coonelly is thumbing its nose at the very recommendations its president helped to craft. If the small-market Pirates can ignore the slots, what excuse do big-market teams like the Mets have for toeing the line?
Perhaps more importantly, the franchise that was lambasted for trading away mediocrities such as Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Adam Laroche this season is very clearly redirecting that money into the amateur draft. Who is more likely to be part of the next good Pirates team - Jack Wilson or one of the four young pitchers signed with the money Pittsburgh saved by trading him?
All four young men were high school pitchers with college scholarships waiting for them - instead, each will go directly into a Pirates' minor-league system that's been steadily rebuilding itself over the last 13 months.
It's easy to debate the wisdom of spending so much money on bonuses for high school pitchers, but the Pirates are making a very bold statement with these signings. First, a franchise run by former MLB draft czar Frank Coonelly is thumbing its nose at the very recommendations its president helped to craft. If the small-market Pirates can ignore the slots, what excuse do big-market teams like the Mets have for toeing the line?
Perhaps more importantly, the franchise that was lambasted for trading away mediocrities such as Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez and Adam Laroche this season is very clearly redirecting that money into the amateur draft. Who is more likely to be part of the next good Pirates team - Jack Wilson or one of the four young pitchers signed with the money Pittsburgh saved by trading him?
Ignoring Slot Recommendations
The 2009 Amateur Draft took place only two months ago, but the deadline for signing players who were selected in that draft is drawing near. Adam Rubin of the Daily News wrote this week that the Mets are optimistic about signing their top draft pick, Long Island high schooler Steven Matz, before he accepts an athletic scholarship to pitch at Coastal Carolina in the fall.
The August 17 deadline is less than a week away, but the Mets have known what it will take to sign Matz for quite some time. The Ward Melville left-hander hasn't been shy about expressing his expectations for a signing bonus - it will cost the Mets a cool $1.1 million to get Matz to forego his college career.
Signing Matz would represent somewhat of a departure from the Mets' approach to the amateur draft in the last few years. Matz, a second-round pick in 2009, is asking for a signing bonus nearly twice as much as what MLB told its teams to pay for players selected at that point in the draft. The Mets, for some strange reason, have been reluctant to offer signing bonus beyond the slot recommendations of the commissioner's office.
In fact, the Mets have had a bad habit of strictly adhering to these slot recommendations - a major no-no for a big-market club. There are no repercussions for paying out signing bonuses beyond MLB's recommendations, for starters. A slotting system was not included in the current collective bargaining agreement and therefore MLB has no recourse to punish teams that ignore their recommendations.
Small-market teams and timid large-market teams have nevertheless been reluctant to draft a player whose financial expectations are perceived to be excessive by MLB. Bolder franchises have seen right through this charade and have drafted players who slipped in the draft not because of their talent level but because of the bonuses they command.
Detroit's selection of Rick Porcello in the first round of the 2007 draft is a classic example of this phenomenon. The Tigers were only able to draft him because they were the first team on the board willing to meet Porcello's price tag. The result? Porcello is already in the majors at the tender age of 20 and has all the makings of a future star.
Franchises willing to commit $3 to $5 million more in bonuses can greatly improve the quality of their draft simply by targeting players whose bonus demands go beyond slot recommendations. If the Mets meet Matz's demands, it would be a positive sign that the front office has come to the realization that the demands of the commissioner's office to adhere to slot recommendations are toothless.
The August 17 deadline is less than a week away, but the Mets have known what it will take to sign Matz for quite some time. The Ward Melville left-hander hasn't been shy about expressing his expectations for a signing bonus - it will cost the Mets a cool $1.1 million to get Matz to forego his college career.
Signing Matz would represent somewhat of a departure from the Mets' approach to the amateur draft in the last few years. Matz, a second-round pick in 2009, is asking for a signing bonus nearly twice as much as what MLB told its teams to pay for players selected at that point in the draft. The Mets, for some strange reason, have been reluctant to offer signing bonus beyond the slot recommendations of the commissioner's office.
In fact, the Mets have had a bad habit of strictly adhering to these slot recommendations - a major no-no for a big-market club. There are no repercussions for paying out signing bonuses beyond MLB's recommendations, for starters. A slotting system was not included in the current collective bargaining agreement and therefore MLB has no recourse to punish teams that ignore their recommendations.
Small-market teams and timid large-market teams have nevertheless been reluctant to draft a player whose financial expectations are perceived to be excessive by MLB. Bolder franchises have seen right through this charade and have drafted players who slipped in the draft not because of their talent level but because of the bonuses they command.
Detroit's selection of Rick Porcello in the first round of the 2007 draft is a classic example of this phenomenon. The Tigers were only able to draft him because they were the first team on the board willing to meet Porcello's price tag. The result? Porcello is already in the majors at the tender age of 20 and has all the makings of a future star.
Franchises willing to commit $3 to $5 million more in bonuses can greatly improve the quality of their draft simply by targeting players whose bonus demands go beyond slot recommendations. If the Mets meet Matz's demands, it would be a positive sign that the front office has come to the realization that the demands of the commissioner's office to adhere to slot recommendations are toothless.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Six Starters?
Earl Weaver, the legendary Baltimore Orioles manager and co-author of Weaver on Strategy, had a simple explanation when asked why he preferred to use a four-man starting rotation in an era where more teams were beginning to use five starters. Weaver's Seventh Law was this - "It's easier to find four good starters than five."
This is still true today, of course, although there isn't a manager in baseball who would dare try out a four-man starting rotation again. I don't think we'll ever see a return to the days where Weaver's Seventh Law held sway, but I do believe that baseball teams would be better served by running their starters out in a "five-day" rotation, rather than a "five-man" rotation.
We'll talk more about this in the future, but today I want to focus on something I saw on Metsblog:
…i wonder if the Mets will start to rest him, maybe pitching him every six days or even skipping a start… i mean, what’s the point in having johan throw 220 innings this season, when he can get rest that might save him down the road, next season and beyond…"
Normally, I would never advocate for a six-man rotation, but the 2009 Mets seem like the optimal team to try it out. The season is over, for starters. The Mets are 10 games out of first place and nine games out of a wild card spot with 51 games to go. I think even the most cockeyed optimist would have to admit that it's all over.
Loosening the reins and trying out one more starter is only going to make a difference in draft positioning, and taking two or three meaningless starts away from Santana may make him a little fresher in 2010. Mike Pelfrey may benefit from a little extra rest as well, especially if you believe that the Verducci Effect theory holds water.
Since the Mets have no one in Buffalo deserving of a recall, the Mets can alternate the sixth spot between Tim Redding and Nelson Figueroa down the stretch. Both are singing for their 2010 supper and would surely appreciate four or five starts to show off for other teams. Actually, I would shelve the Bobby Parnell Experiment until September 1, when a few more relievers can be added to the roster to cover his future three-inning starts.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Rebrand
Yesterday I had the good fortune of catching up with The Narrowback over many pints at the John Street Bar and Grill. He and I can still talk for hours, and that's before baseball ever makes it to the forefront. We talked about so many baseball-related topics - strategy, New York baseball past and present, roster construction, player comparisons of all shapes and sizes. If I had a tape recorder running, it would've given me a month of material for this blog - and none of it would've been about the New York Mets.
Because let's face it - this isn't working right now.
Blogs are supposed to be a labor of love. For too long now, Productive Outs and Crackerjack has been nothing more than hard labor. Even now, I struggle to find the words to express how I'm feeling and why, in my heart, I know this blog cannot survive without making some changes.
So I am going to take this blog in a new direction, in the hopes that I'll be able to capture some of the spark that got me writing again in the first place. Baseball will always be the focus of this blog, but it is time to move away from exclusively covering the Mets and expanding into all facets of the game.
The Mets are still my favorite team, and my readers are going to get more coverage of New York's National League franchise than anything else. I will also continue contributing at Mack's Mets for as long as Mack will have me - anything I write about the Mets or about the minor leagues will also be offered to his site.
But it's time to write about some other things too. The best writing, I've always thought, is something like two people sitting in a room, one sharing a story with the other. There's an intimacy in the use of simple language to convey thoughts and ideas, and the ability to do so in a clear and compelling manner is a rare and wonderful gift.
So that's what I'm going to do. This blog will be a collection of my thoughts and ideas, not only about the New York Mets but also about anything and everything concerning the great game of baseball. For example, I've been following the Pittsburgh Pirates much more closely in the last few weeks, because I've never seen a team so completely commit to a rebuilding effort.
And make no mistake - what's going on in Pittsburgh is not business as usual. Pirates GM Neal Huntington is not dumping salary for the sake of keeping down the payroll. He is ruthlessly purging the Pirates of the mediocrity they have wallowed in for 17 years - and perhaps finally setting the stage for a legitimately bright future.
There's so much more to writing about baseball than chronicling the misfortunes of the traveling circus known as the New York Mets. That's what I'm going to do. I have some ideas to share with you - I hope you'll get something out of them.
Because let's face it - this isn't working right now.
Blogs are supposed to be a labor of love. For too long now, Productive Outs and Crackerjack has been nothing more than hard labor. Even now, I struggle to find the words to express how I'm feeling and why, in my heart, I know this blog cannot survive without making some changes.
So I am going to take this blog in a new direction, in the hopes that I'll be able to capture some of the spark that got me writing again in the first place. Baseball will always be the focus of this blog, but it is time to move away from exclusively covering the Mets and expanding into all facets of the game.
The Mets are still my favorite team, and my readers are going to get more coverage of New York's National League franchise than anything else. I will also continue contributing at Mack's Mets for as long as Mack will have me - anything I write about the Mets or about the minor leagues will also be offered to his site.
But it's time to write about some other things too. The best writing, I've always thought, is something like two people sitting in a room, one sharing a story with the other. There's an intimacy in the use of simple language to convey thoughts and ideas, and the ability to do so in a clear and compelling manner is a rare and wonderful gift.
So that's what I'm going to do. This blog will be a collection of my thoughts and ideas, not only about the New York Mets but also about anything and everything concerning the great game of baseball. For example, I've been following the Pittsburgh Pirates much more closely in the last few weeks, because I've never seen a team so completely commit to a rebuilding effort.
And make no mistake - what's going on in Pittsburgh is not business as usual. Pirates GM Neal Huntington is not dumping salary for the sake of keeping down the payroll. He is ruthlessly purging the Pirates of the mediocrity they have wallowed in for 17 years - and perhaps finally setting the stage for a legitimately bright future.
There's so much more to writing about baseball than chronicling the misfortunes of the traveling circus known as the New York Mets. That's what I'm going to do. I have some ideas to share with you - I hope you'll get something out of them.
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