Reader LCee asked earlier this week: "Jack, several years ago, Joe Sheehan made the comment to the effect of: a fast runner on the bases might distract the pitcher and certain infield position players, but that pales in comparison to the impact on the hitter, as he must protect the runner with lame swings when the runner attempts a steal. What is your take?"
It's an interesting question and one that deserves some consideration. I believe that the article LCee is quoting from is this Baseball Prospectus piece from 2004, which includes this passage: The vaunted secondary effects of stealing bases--distracting the pitcher, putting pressure on the defense--do not appear to exist. In fact, most secondary effects argue in favor of keeping the runner on first base. A runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second. Additionally, studies show that stolen-base attempts negatively impact the performance of the batter at the plate, presumably due to hitters getting themselves into negative counts by taking pitches or swinging at bad balls to protect the runner.
The article doesn't include links to any studies that show negligible secondary effects of base-stealing or the supposed negative impact that a runner attempting a steal has on the batter. Sheehan has numbers on his side, so if I see the studies he's referencing it will surely be harder to support my perspective. From a common-sense standpoint, however, it's difficult to believe that an altered pitching motion and a limited pitch selection does not favor the batter.
A pitcher generally changes his pitching motion when holding a runner on base, by throwing from the stretch to decrease the amount of time it takes to deliver the ball to the catcher. Pitch selection changes as well; a pitcher simply cannot throw as many breaking balls to a batter with Jose Reyes on first base, because if Reyes tries to steal on a breaking pitch he's going to be standing safely on second.
The arguments about defensive positioning make sense, and I agree that the batter - especially if he's left-handed - benefits more from a big hole between first and second base then from simply having the runner on second. Still, any run expectancy matrix shows that a team is more likely to score with a runner on second than with a runner on first, given the same amount of outs. Given that, I simply cannot agree with Sheehan's first contention.
One other point: no study can possibly measure the psychological effects that a fast runner on first has on the pitcher, and I have to believe that most hurlers are simply less comfortable with a runner on base then pitching with the bases empty. I know I'm veering dangerously close to "intangibles" territory here by trying to predict psychological influences, but I do think the logic behind my thinking is strong. Again, if I saw some of the studies that Sheehan referenced, I may think differently.
However, I do not need to see any studies to be convinced of Sheehan's second contention. All the advantages that I believe the batter has with a fast runner on first are immediately given away the second that the runner actually takes off. The best possible scenario is that the pitcher throws a ball that is clearly out of the strike zone and the batter recognizes this and checks his swing, allowing the baserunner to steal safely. Otherwise, the batter finds himself taking a strike in an attempt to let the runner steal, or takes a defensive hack to protect the runner and to avoid the double play.
Forget about the hole that appears when the shortstop or the second baseman goes to cover on the steal attempt; a hitter trying to hit the ball through that hole is indeed taking a compromised swing and therefore less likely to hit safely. In my opinion, the best thing the batter can do is simply step back and let the runner earn his base, without trying to help out.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
On Speed and Leadoff Hitters
My contributions to the message boards at Flushing University are full of threads with twists and turns away from the original topic. Usually, they end up in a spirited defense of the merits of Adam Dunn as a baseball player, but today I ended up talking about speed, stolen bases and ideal leadoff hitters.
I think if you were going into a lab to create the "ideal leadoff hitter," it would be a guy with the speed to steal 50 bases, the patience to walk 100 times and the stick to bat .300 and to crack 65 extra-base hits. Grady Sizemore is a good example of the modern incarnation of that player, although once a guy cracks the 25-homer barrier he probably belongs a little further down in the lineup so he can drive in more runs.
Still, I get the feeling that managers just can't get past the idea of leadoff hitter = base stealer.
Too many managers focus more on a potential leadoff hitter's speed and not enough on his patience or the ability to drive the ball. Conventional wisdom says that your leadoff hitter has to be able to steal bases above all else and that on-base percentage or total bases aren't as important. I disagree.
I love stolen bases, but if I was building a lineup and had to choose between, say Joe Mauer and Juan Pierre in the leadoff spot, Mr. Pierre would be batting eighth. Mauer's typical year looks exactly what a leadoff hitter's should look like in every respect but the stolen base total. When you are talking about two guys with limited skill sets, I'll always take the leadoff hitter who can walk but can't run over the guy who can run but can't walk.
Don't get me wrong. I love steals and the way they change the game in ways that do not show up in a boxscore. You simply cannot quantify the distraction that Jose Reyes creates on the basepaths for opposing pitchers. I think it's critically important to any good lineup to have at least two stolen base threats in the game at any given time.
I am just not wedded to the notion that fast runners must be at the top of the lineup, especially at the expense of players who will have a higher OBP or more total bases. The ideal leadoff hitter combines speed, on-base percentage and total bases. A leadoff hitter who only has speed, but falls short in the other two categories, should be batting at the bottom of the lineup.
Stolen bases should be respected as weapons in whatever part of the lineup they are featured from. A good lineup, however, is built without regard to stolen base totals and with specific attention to the slash stats and extra-base hits. If anything, batting a speedster seventh makes a lot of sense. He can use his legs in an attempt to push himself into scoring position, and it's harder to run yourself out of a "big" inning if the eighth and ninth hitter follow someone who is caught stealing.
It's counter-intuitive, but I would bat Luis Castillo seventh for just that reason. He may run himself into scoring position and even if he doesn't, his presence might distract the pitcher enough to groove a bad pitch to the likes of Brian Schneider, who needs to capitalize on pitcher mistakes to get hits.
I think if you were going into a lab to create the "ideal leadoff hitter," it would be a guy with the speed to steal 50 bases, the patience to walk 100 times and the stick to bat .300 and to crack 65 extra-base hits. Grady Sizemore is a good example of the modern incarnation of that player, although once a guy cracks the 25-homer barrier he probably belongs a little further down in the lineup so he can drive in more runs.
Still, I get the feeling that managers just can't get past the idea of leadoff hitter = base stealer.
Too many managers focus more on a potential leadoff hitter's speed and not enough on his patience or the ability to drive the ball. Conventional wisdom says that your leadoff hitter has to be able to steal bases above all else and that on-base percentage or total bases aren't as important. I disagree.
I love stolen bases, but if I was building a lineup and had to choose between, say Joe Mauer and Juan Pierre in the leadoff spot, Mr. Pierre would be batting eighth. Mauer's typical year looks exactly what a leadoff hitter's should look like in every respect but the stolen base total. When you are talking about two guys with limited skill sets, I'll always take the leadoff hitter who can walk but can't run over the guy who can run but can't walk.
Don't get me wrong. I love steals and the way they change the game in ways that do not show up in a boxscore. You simply cannot quantify the distraction that Jose Reyes creates on the basepaths for opposing pitchers. I think it's critically important to any good lineup to have at least two stolen base threats in the game at any given time.
I am just not wedded to the notion that fast runners must be at the top of the lineup, especially at the expense of players who will have a higher OBP or more total bases. The ideal leadoff hitter combines speed, on-base percentage and total bases. A leadoff hitter who only has speed, but falls short in the other two categories, should be batting at the bottom of the lineup.
Stolen bases should be respected as weapons in whatever part of the lineup they are featured from. A good lineup, however, is built without regard to stolen base totals and with specific attention to the slash stats and extra-base hits. If anything, batting a speedster seventh makes a lot of sense. He can use his legs in an attempt to push himself into scoring position, and it's harder to run yourself out of a "big" inning if the eighth and ninth hitter follow someone who is caught stealing.
It's counter-intuitive, but I would bat Luis Castillo seventh for just that reason. He may run himself into scoring position and even if he doesn't, his presence might distract the pitcher enough to groove a bad pitch to the likes of Brian Schneider, who needs to capitalize on pitcher mistakes to get hits.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Roster Move: Burgos and Argenis Reyes Non-Tendered
Ambiorix Burgos has bigger issues in his life, but now he can add unemployment to his list of problems. The Mets non-tendered him this week, effectively cutting all ties with the beleaguered right-hander facing charges in the Dominican Republic for allegedly killing two women in a hit-and-run attack. He was already on thin ice with the organization after getting arrested in September for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend. It might be too kind to tab Burgos with the classic label of "million dollar arm, ten cent head," since it appears that the head is coming up about nine pennies too short.
The Burgos for Brian Bannister trade after the 2006 offseason has been widely criticized, but it's hard to blame Omar Minaya for swapping a soft-tosser for a flamethrower, all things being equal. Bannister had a very good season two years ago and despite his disastrous 2008 campaign, he remains a player that I like to follow for his ideas about pitching. Still, Burgos was one decent breaking ball away from being a dominant reliever before Tommy John surgery. If he is acquitted, he will surely end up in a major league camp before long.
I've been under the impression that Argenis Reyes was not arbitration-eligible, but I must have been wrong. He has a decent glove, but Reyes can't hit major league pitching and he never will. Reyes's release keeps Damion Easley's hopes for a utility job with the Mets alive, but Alex Cora is also a possibility for backup middle infield role. I can't figure out the deal with Easley - Cot's Contracts says he's a free agent, but the Mets continue to include him on the 40-man roster. When in doubt, go with Cot's.
Meanwhile, the Mets offered arbitration to John Maine, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Ryan Church and Jeremy Reed, increasing the chances that they'll be playing for the Mets in 2009. Actually, everyone but Reed will have a major league job, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez or Feliciano are traded before Opening Day. Maine will be in the starting rotation for the Mets and Church will have a corner outfield spot, most likely in right field.
If it's true that Easley is a free agent, the Mets only have 15 position players on the 40-man roster right now. I know Omar Minaya has insisted that he's focusing on pitching at the moment, but at what point does he turn his attention to the other eight spots on the diamond?
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Duaner Sanchez
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league contract)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league contract)
Gustavo Molina (minor league contract)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
The Burgos for Brian Bannister trade after the 2006 offseason has been widely criticized, but it's hard to blame Omar Minaya for swapping a soft-tosser for a flamethrower, all things being equal. Bannister had a very good season two years ago and despite his disastrous 2008 campaign, he remains a player that I like to follow for his ideas about pitching. Still, Burgos was one decent breaking ball away from being a dominant reliever before Tommy John surgery. If he is acquitted, he will surely end up in a major league camp before long.
I've been under the impression that Argenis Reyes was not arbitration-eligible, but I must have been wrong. He has a decent glove, but Reyes can't hit major league pitching and he never will. Reyes's release keeps Damion Easley's hopes for a utility job with the Mets alive, but Alex Cora is also a possibility for backup middle infield role. I can't figure out the deal with Easley - Cot's Contracts says he's a free agent, but the Mets continue to include him on the 40-man roster. When in doubt, go with Cot's.
Meanwhile, the Mets offered arbitration to John Maine, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Ryan Church and Jeremy Reed, increasing the chances that they'll be playing for the Mets in 2009. Actually, everyone but Reed will have a major league job, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez or Feliciano are traded before Opening Day. Maine will be in the starting rotation for the Mets and Church will have a corner outfield spot, most likely in right field.
If it's true that Easley is a free agent, the Mets only have 15 position players on the 40-man roster right now. I know Omar Minaya has insisted that he's focusing on pitching at the moment, but at what point does he turn his attention to the other eight spots on the diamond?
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Duaner Sanchez
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league contract)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league contract)
Gustavo Molina (minor league contract)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
Friday, December 12, 2008
Roster Move: Schoeneweis Exiled
The worst free-agent signing of Omar Minaya's career is heading west to Arizona, as the Mets continued the joyful process of breaking up The Arson Squad today. The Diamondbacks are sending someone named Conor Roberston to New York, but Minaya could've traded Scott Schoeneweis for Pat Robertson and Mets fans still would've been happy.
The truth is that Schoeneweis, when deployed properly, actually wasn't that bad during his two seasons with the Mets. He was generally able to get left-handed batters out, but most of us understood that Schoeneweis was Bantha fodder against right-handed batters. Willie Randolph, of course, couldn't properly deploy a vacuum cleaner, so Schoeneweis ended up failing in a ton of situations he had no business being in. Hey, if you ask me to cut sheetrock, I'm probably going to screw it up. The key is putting people in positions to succeed.
Pedro Feliciano now slides into the lefty specialist role, where I think he will have a fine bounce-back season in 2009. I would be surprised to see the Mets go with only one left-hander in the bullpen, so I expect to see another transaction to address that need. Please, Omar, no more three-year contracts for middle relievers!
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (renewable)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (arbitration eligible)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
The truth is that Schoeneweis, when deployed properly, actually wasn't that bad during his two seasons with the Mets. He was generally able to get left-handed batters out, but most of us understood that Schoeneweis was Bantha fodder against right-handed batters. Willie Randolph, of course, couldn't properly deploy a vacuum cleaner, so Schoeneweis ended up failing in a ton of situations he had no business being in. Hey, if you ask me to cut sheetrock, I'm probably going to screw it up. The key is putting people in positions to succeed.
Pedro Feliciano now slides into the lefty specialist role, where I think he will have a fine bounce-back season in 2009. I would be surprised to see the Mets go with only one left-hander in the bullpen, so I expect to see another transaction to address that need. Please, Omar, no more three-year contracts for middle relievers!
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (renewable)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (arbitration eligible)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Roster Move: Mets Add Two Relievers in Rule V Draft
I love the Rule V draft. If I were a GM, it wouldn't matter if I was running the Yankees or the Marlins - I would have a Rule V pick on my roster every year. No team should have its 25-man roster packed so tight that it can't afford to carry a seventh reliever or a defensive replacement plucked from this draft. It's a cheap and easy way to round out your team - and once in a while you get lucky and choose a player that ends up becoming a star.
The Mets picked up two right-handed relievers in the Rule V draft today. Neither of them will become a star, but it shows that Omar Minaya is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to filling out the bullpen. Darren O'Day (Angels) and Rocky Cherry (Orioles) were added to the 40-man roster and each will be given a chance to earn a bullpen spot in Spring Training.
Each has major league experience, but O'Day has a better chance to stick with the big club than Cherry. A side-arming right-hander, O'Day has been successful throughout his minor-league career and did not embarrass himself with California in 2008. Unfortunately, he also tore his labrum toward the end of the season and the Angels released him to make room on the 40-man roster. O'Day signed a minor-league deal with the club as was going to rehab with the Angels in the hopes he could avoid surgery. Instead, he'll be rehabbing with the Mets.
Rule V players, in addition to spending the entire subsequent season on their new club's major-league roster, must be an active player for at least 90 days. This prevents clubs from stashing Rule V picks on the disabled list for an entire season. So if the Mets play their cards right, they can basically let O'Day rest or rehab until July 1 and see if he can pitch himself into their bullpen by then. If he doesn't, they release him and that's it. Labrums are generally career-killers, but a sidearmer who doesn't light up the radar gun may be able to survive.
Cherry has a decent fastball and a decent breaking ball, but that's about it. He probably won't make the club, but there is no harm in taking aim, even if the target is a dream. It's interesting that Minaya chose two pitchers with big league experience - O'Day and Cherry's upside is more limited than some other Rule V picks, but they are among the most likely to actually contribute next season.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Scott Schoeneweis
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
The Mets picked up two right-handed relievers in the Rule V draft today. Neither of them will become a star, but it shows that Omar Minaya is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to filling out the bullpen. Darren O'Day (Angels) and Rocky Cherry (Orioles) were added to the 40-man roster and each will be given a chance to earn a bullpen spot in Spring Training.
Each has major league experience, but O'Day has a better chance to stick with the big club than Cherry. A side-arming right-hander, O'Day has been successful throughout his minor-league career and did not embarrass himself with California in 2008. Unfortunately, he also tore his labrum toward the end of the season and the Angels released him to make room on the 40-man roster. O'Day signed a minor-league deal with the club as was going to rehab with the Angels in the hopes he could avoid surgery. Instead, he'll be rehabbing with the Mets.
Rule V players, in addition to spending the entire subsequent season on their new club's major-league roster, must be an active player for at least 90 days. This prevents clubs from stashing Rule V picks on the disabled list for an entire season. So if the Mets play their cards right, they can basically let O'Day rest or rehab until July 1 and see if he can pitch himself into their bullpen by then. If he doesn't, they release him and that's it. Labrums are generally career-killers, but a sidearmer who doesn't light up the radar gun may be able to survive.
Cherry has a decent fastball and a decent breaking ball, but that's about it. He probably won't make the club, but there is no harm in taking aim, even if the target is a dream. It's interesting that Minaya chose two pitchers with big league experience - O'Day and Cherry's upside is more limited than some other Rule V picks, but they are among the most likely to actually contribute next season.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Scott Schoeneweis
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
I'll Be The Judge: Francisco Rodriguez
2008 Season: Francisco Rodriguez - better known as K-Rod around the league for his propensity to strike batters out - set a single-season saves record by locking down 62 games for the Los Angeles Angels in 2008. In every other statistical category, it was actually the worst season of his six-year career.
K-Rod had a career high in WHIP (his second straight season above the 1.2o range) and career lows in strikeout rates and batting average allowed. He averaged less than one inning per appearance - a sign that the Angels overly specialized K-Rod's role in the bullpen instead of leveraging his talent for high-need situations. Oh, and he blew six saves - although that still gave K-Rod a very respectable 91.1% save conversion percentage.
Contract Status: This really is an incredibly club-friendly deal. Cot's Contracts is saying that K-Rod will make just $8.5 million in 2009, with successive years at $11.5 million after that. The $17.5 million option in 2012 is just awful, but it only becomes guaranteed if K-Rod doesn't miss significant time in 2010 or 2011. Otherwise, the Mets can buy at the option at $3.5 million and look to re-sign K-Rod to a more realistic longterm deal - remember, he'll only be 29 at the end of the guaranteed portion of the contract.
K-Rod was supposedly looking for 5 years, $75 million at the beginning of the off-season; the general manager who would've acquiesced to such a ridiculous request should've had their sobriety level checked. Kudos to Omar Minaya for getting K-Rod at Brad Lidge money (although he had to tack on an option year based on incentives that will be fairly easy to attain). The other 29 GMs are thanking him too - this signing single-handedly lowers the bar financially for every other closer on the market. Brian Fuentes in particular will probably struggle to get more than $11 million a year now - early reports had him commanding an average annual value in the $13 million range.
The Verdict: K-Rod will be remembered for the rest of his career as the guy who set a single-season save record in 2008, and it's a record that will probably stand for some time. Still, it was not a particularly good season by any stretch - his WHIP was higher than former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg and his batting average allowed was higher than fellow free agent Fuentes. Astros reliever Jose Valverde was among the handful of closers who had a better K/9 rate than the man whose nickname was borne from his ability to strike batters out.
In the end, K-Rod was extremely lucky to have so many late-game leads to protect and danced out of trouble often enough to get his name in the record books. He deserves some credit for this - in the end, it really doesn't matter if a closer has a 1-2-3 ninth inning or if they load the bases without giving up any runs. Today's closers are measured not by their dominance but whether or not they succeeded in their highly-specialized roles. K-Rod unquestionably succeeded in his.
2009 Outlook: I think K-Rod will be very, very good in a similarly specialized role with the Mets. I expect a save conversion percentage above 90 percent, which for the Mets could be the difference between a playoff berth and yet another excruciating late September collapse. The increased WHIP and decline in strikeout rates may also just be a matter of a pitcher learning how to pitch. Perhaps K-Rod now understands that strikeouts are pretty, but allowing balls to be put in play makes for a more efficient (if less statistically dominant) reliever. His raw stuff is so still good that 2008's K/9 rate of 10.15 was actually considered a cause for concern.
One last thing: we've been hearing rumors for years that K-Rod's funky delivery and stressful slider were an arm injury waiting to happen, but he's made it through six full seasons without disaster striking. I have no reason to believe it will at this point.
K-Rod had a career high in WHIP (his second straight season above the 1.2o range) and career lows in strikeout rates and batting average allowed. He averaged less than one inning per appearance - a sign that the Angels overly specialized K-Rod's role in the bullpen instead of leveraging his talent for high-need situations. Oh, and he blew six saves - although that still gave K-Rod a very respectable 91.1% save conversion percentage.
Contract Status: This really is an incredibly club-friendly deal. Cot's Contracts is saying that K-Rod will make just $8.5 million in 2009, with successive years at $11.5 million after that. The $17.5 million option in 2012 is just awful, but it only becomes guaranteed if K-Rod doesn't miss significant time in 2010 or 2011. Otherwise, the Mets can buy at the option at $3.5 million and look to re-sign K-Rod to a more realistic longterm deal - remember, he'll only be 29 at the end of the guaranteed portion of the contract.
K-Rod was supposedly looking for 5 years, $75 million at the beginning of the off-season; the general manager who would've acquiesced to such a ridiculous request should've had their sobriety level checked. Kudos to Omar Minaya for getting K-Rod at Brad Lidge money (although he had to tack on an option year based on incentives that will be fairly easy to attain). The other 29 GMs are thanking him too - this signing single-handedly lowers the bar financially for every other closer on the market. Brian Fuentes in particular will probably struggle to get more than $11 million a year now - early reports had him commanding an average annual value in the $13 million range.
The Verdict: K-Rod will be remembered for the rest of his career as the guy who set a single-season save record in 2008, and it's a record that will probably stand for some time. Still, it was not a particularly good season by any stretch - his WHIP was higher than former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg and his batting average allowed was higher than fellow free agent Fuentes. Astros reliever Jose Valverde was among the handful of closers who had a better K/9 rate than the man whose nickname was borne from his ability to strike batters out.
In the end, K-Rod was extremely lucky to have so many late-game leads to protect and danced out of trouble often enough to get his name in the record books. He deserves some credit for this - in the end, it really doesn't matter if a closer has a 1-2-3 ninth inning or if they load the bases without giving up any runs. Today's closers are measured not by their dominance but whether or not they succeeded in their highly-specialized roles. K-Rod unquestionably succeeded in his.
2009 Outlook: I think K-Rod will be very, very good in a similarly specialized role with the Mets. I expect a save conversion percentage above 90 percent, which for the Mets could be the difference between a playoff berth and yet another excruciating late September collapse. The increased WHIP and decline in strikeout rates may also just be a matter of a pitcher learning how to pitch. Perhaps K-Rod now understands that strikeouts are pretty, but allowing balls to be put in play makes for a more efficient (if less statistically dominant) reliever. His raw stuff is so still good that 2008's K/9 rate of 10.15 was actually considered a cause for concern.
One last thing: we've been hearing rumors for years that K-Rod's funky delivery and stressful slider were an arm injury waiting to happen, but he's made it through six full seasons without disaster striking. I have no reason to believe it will at this point.
Roster Move: Mets Trade for Putz
I hope I'm not jumping the gun here, but it's being reported everywhere and I'm still awake, so I'll take my chances.
Just a quick and dirty analysis here: from a Mets perspective, turning Smith into Green and Chavez into Reed doesn't mean that much, although Smith would seem to have more upside and Chavez would seem to be better defensively. Turning Heilman into Putz is a neat trick - if Putz is healthy and his terrible 2008 was merely the result of injuries. Of course, if Heilman's 2008 was an aberration as well, this deal has the potential to go bad for the Mets.
Me, I would've down Heilman/Feliciano for Street two weeks ago. This deserves a closer look though, so I'll break down the trade a little more closely soon.
EDIT: Maybe I should've waited. Now ESPN is saying that Jason Vargas and two other minor leaguers are part of the deal on the Mets' side, making the ledger look more like this:
Mets get JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed from Mariners
Mariners get Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto and Ezequiel Carrera from Mets (also get Franklin Gutierrez-plus from Indians)
Indians get Smith and Luis Valbuena from Mariners
Oh, and how about this quote: "An All-Star in 2007 when he saved 40 games, Putz was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves in 23 chances last season, when he missed long stretches with ribcage and elbow injuries. His agent, Craig Landis, said Putz wants to remain a closer.
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez
JJ Putz
Scott Schoeneweis
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
Just a quick and dirty analysis here: from a Mets perspective, turning Smith into Green and Chavez into Reed doesn't mean that much, although Smith would seem to have more upside and Chavez would seem to be better defensively. Turning Heilman into Putz is a neat trick - if Putz is healthy and his terrible 2008 was merely the result of injuries. Of course, if Heilman's 2008 was an aberration as well, this deal has the potential to go bad for the Mets.
Me, I would've down Heilman/Feliciano for Street two weeks ago. This deserves a closer look though, so I'll break down the trade a little more closely soon.
EDIT: Maybe I should've waited. Now ESPN is saying that Jason Vargas and two other minor leaguers are part of the deal on the Mets' side, making the ledger look more like this:
Mets get JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed from Mariners
Mariners get Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto and Ezequiel Carrera from Mets (also get Franklin Gutierrez-plus from Indians)
Indians get Smith and Luis Valbuena from Mariners
Oh, and how about this quote: "An All-Star in 2007 when he saved 40 games, Putz was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves in 23 chances last season, when he missed long stretches with ribcage and elbow injuries. His agent, Craig Landis, said Putz wants to remain a closer.
"He's one of the top five or 10 closers in the game," Landis said. "No, he would not want to be a set-up man."
STARTING PITCHERSJohan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez
JJ Putz
Scott Schoeneweis
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Roster Move: Mets Sign K-Rod
I'll cast judgment on Francisco Rodriguez tomorrow, but I will say this - getting K-Rod at Brad Lidge money is good work by Omar Minaya. This is where Minaya excels - he picks out the elite free agents on the market and pays them just enough to play for the Mets. It sounds simple, but large-market GMs often make the mistake of spending money because they can, not because they properly leverage resources to bring in the best players. The Mets will pay K-Rod the same amount of money that the Mariners will pay Carlos Silva over the next three years - and that's all you need to know about that.
I'll probably expand on this at a later date, but what Minaya lacks as a general manager is creativity. He seems almost formulaic when it comes to roster construction - identify needs, make list of the best players available through trades or free agency and go after the highest player on the list. If Player A can't be had, move to Player B and repeat until you get someone. Minaya never seems to identify market inefficiencies if they don't correlate directly with his plans at the moment. He doesn't sneak up on GMs who are looking to move good players who aren't immediately obvious fits for the Mets as constructed at that very moment.
Even now, there is a glut of good-hit, no-field corner outfielders on the market. The Mets are planning to platoon Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis in left field, while hoping that Ryan Church's bell hasn't been permanently rung from the concussions of last season. Minaya, however, continues to publicly say that his focus is on pitching and that he has no interest in upgrading the corner outfield spots.
I hope it's just silly posturing - because otherwise it's one more indication that Minaya follows a script when it comes to roster construction and lacks the ability to make changes to the script when opportunity presents itself.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
Mike Carp (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
I'll probably expand on this at a later date, but what Minaya lacks as a general manager is creativity. He seems almost formulaic when it comes to roster construction - identify needs, make list of the best players available through trades or free agency and go after the highest player on the list. If Player A can't be had, move to Player B and repeat until you get someone. Minaya never seems to identify market inefficiencies if they don't correlate directly with his plans at the moment. He doesn't sneak up on GMs who are looking to move good players who aren't immediately obvious fits for the Mets as constructed at that very moment.
Even now, there is a glut of good-hit, no-field corner outfielders on the market. The Mets are planning to platoon Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis in left field, while hoping that Ryan Church's bell hasn't been permanently rung from the concussions of last season. Minaya, however, continues to publicly say that his focus is on pitching and that he has no interest in upgrading the corner outfield spots.
I hope it's just silly posturing - because otherwise it's one more indication that Minaya follows a script when it comes to roster construction and lacks the ability to make changes to the script when opportunity presents itself.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
Mike Carp (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Strike Before the Stove Gets Hot (Flushing University)
Things have been moving slowly on the free agent market this off-season. Omar Minaya's decision to resign a key free agent in October may have been too hasty. Read more here.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Shifting Priorities
As the semester draws to a close, I'm going to have more time to update this site over the next month and a half. As you can see above (neat blogger trick!), I was able to complete a long piece for Flushing University yesterday and I had a couple of additional thoughts about why some players were not offered arbitration by their current teams.
A premium player on a one-year deal is prime trade bait. Am I supposed to believe that the Diamondbacks couldn't find a taker for Dunn on a one-year deal before Spring Training? Or that the Yankees couldn't do the same for Abreu? Look at it this way - what is more attractive to a general manager in a risk-averse climate because of the struggling economy: one guaranteed year of Adam Dunn, with the first shot at re-signing him if he hits 40 homers for the fifth straight year, or four guaranteed years at roughly the same salary?
As for the Mets, they extended arbitration to Oliver Perez, which means that if he signs with other teams they are guaranteed two draft picks. Ollie was their only Type A free agent and I doubt he's coming back, so the Mets probably guaranteed their picks with this move. Of course, the front office will simply insist that the team adheres to slot recommendations, so the Mets won't take advantage of the flawed amateur draft system anyway.
They did not extend arbitration to Type B free agents Moises Alou or Luis Ayala, so if either player signs with another team the Mets will not receive a draft pick. Ayala will probably find work somewhere, but not offering arbitration is a pretty clear sign that he is not in Minaya's plans for 2009. Let's hope we can say the same about Alou!
I still can't believe that 12 Type A free agents (the kind that earn a team two draft picks as compensation for signing with another team) were not offered arbitration, eliminating the draft pick compensation. Those 12 players should become the focus of any smart general manager who wants to add to his roster without hurting his minor-league system.
I know a lot of Mets fans are jonesing for adding Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes to lock down the closer's spot, but I'm solidly in the Trevor Hoffman camp now. Both K-Rod and Fuentes were offered arbitration and each will require multi-year deals in excess of $10 million per year. Hoffman can be had a one-year deal for half that price, will be nearly as good as any other closer on the market and won't require a long commitment. Best of all, the Padres did not offer him arbitration, so the Mets won't lose a draft pick by signing him.
My recommendation: sign Hoffman for one year and $4 million, then sign Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell if any of them will take a contract in the neighborhood of three years and $36 million.
I've been reading speculation that the reason so many Type A free agents weren't offered arbitration is fear by their former clubs that the players would actually accept it, binding those clubs to a one-year deal at a very high rate. Both Arizona and the Yankees had legitimate reason to believe that Dunn and Abreu would command more than $15 million in arbitration and apparently decided that there was too much risk involved just to guarantee two draft picks. Such thinking is short-sighted, of course. Yes, it would've taken a little more work by their respective general managers if either player accepted arbitration, but the Diamondbacks and the Yankees both just gave away valuable assets for nothing because they didn't want to assume any risk.A premium player on a one-year deal is prime trade bait. Am I supposed to believe that the Diamondbacks couldn't find a taker for Dunn on a one-year deal before Spring Training? Or that the Yankees couldn't do the same for Abreu? Look at it this way - what is more attractive to a general manager in a risk-averse climate because of the struggling economy: one guaranteed year of Adam Dunn, with the first shot at re-signing him if he hits 40 homers for the fifth straight year, or four guaranteed years at roughly the same salary?
As for the Mets, they extended arbitration to Oliver Perez, which means that if he signs with other teams they are guaranteed two draft picks. Ollie was their only Type A free agent and I doubt he's coming back, so the Mets probably guaranteed their picks with this move. Of course, the front office will simply insist that the team adheres to slot recommendations, so the Mets won't take advantage of the flawed amateur draft system anyway.
They did not extend arbitration to Type B free agents Moises Alou or Luis Ayala, so if either player signs with another team the Mets will not receive a draft pick. Ayala will probably find work somewhere, but not offering arbitration is a pretty clear sign that he is not in Minaya's plans for 2009. Let's hope we can say the same about Alou!
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