Shifting Priorities

As the semester draws to a close, I'm going to have more time to update this site over the next month and a half. As you can see above (neat blogger trick!), I was able to complete a long piece for Flushing University yesterday and I had a couple of additional thoughts about why some players were not offered arbitration by their current teams.

I still can't believe that 12 Type A free agents (the kind that earn a team two draft picks as compensation for signing with another team) were not offered arbitration, eliminating the draft pick compensation. Those 12 players should become the focus of any smart general manager who wants to add to his roster without hurting his minor-league system.

I know a lot of Mets fans are jonesing for adding Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes to lock down the closer's spot, but I'm solidly in the Trevor Hoffman camp now. Both K-Rod and Fuentes were offered arbitration and each will require multi-year deals in excess of $10 million per year. Hoffman can be had a one-year deal for half that price, will be nearly as good as any other closer on the market and won't require a long commitment. Best of all, the Padres did not offer him arbitration, so the Mets won't lose a draft pick by signing him.

My recommendation: sign Hoffman for one year and $4 million, then sign Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell if any of them will take a contract in the neighborhood of three years and $36 million.

I've been reading speculation that the reason so many Type A free agents weren't offered arbitration is fear by their former clubs that the players would actually accept it, binding those clubs to a one-year deal at a very high rate. Both Arizona and the Yankees had legitimate reason to believe that Dunn and Abreu would command more than $15 million in arbitration and apparently decided that there was too much risk involved just to guarantee two draft picks. Such thinking is short-sighted, of course. Yes, it would've taken a little more work by their respective general managers if either player accepted arbitration, but the Diamondbacks and the Yankees both just gave away valuable assets for nothing because they didn't want to assume any risk.

A premium player on a one-year deal is prime trade bait. Am I supposed to believe that the Diamondbacks couldn't find a taker for Dunn on a one-year deal before Spring Training? Or that the Yankees couldn't do the same for Abreu? Look at it this way - what is more attractive to a general manager in a risk-averse climate because of the struggling economy: one guaranteed year of Adam Dunn, with the first shot at re-signing him if he hits 40 homers for the fifth straight year, or four guaranteed years at roughly the same salary?

As for the Mets, they extended arbitration to Oliver Perez, which means that if he signs with other teams they are guaranteed two draft picks. Ollie was their only Type A free agent and I doubt he's coming back, so the Mets probably guaranteed their picks with this move. Of course, the front office will simply insist that the team adheres to slot recommendations, so the Mets won't take advantage of the flawed amateur draft system anyway.

They did not extend arbitration to Type B free agents Moises Alou or Luis Ayala, so if either player signs with another team the Mets will not receive a draft pick. Ayala will probably find work somewhere, but not offering arbitration is a pretty clear sign that he is not in Minaya's plans for 2009. Let's hope we can say the same about Alou!

Disgrace

The 2008 season ended in fitting fashion - at the hands of a bullpen that has more blood on its hands than Lady MacBeth.

If Jerry Manuel made one mistake today, it was in believing that Scott Schoeneweis could get a right-handed batter out when Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez inevitably pinch-hit for Jacobs leading off the eighth inning. He obviously wasn't going to get the lefty-lefty matchup that he wanted; should Manuel have simply let Brian Stokes face Jacobs and take his chances? Well, the result tells us that Stokes couldn't have done any worse.

Then it was Luis Ayala, whose batting practice 3-2 fastball ended up in the bleachers courtesy of Dan Uggla. At that point it was time to offer silent prayers to the God who has ignored us so many times before and hope that somehow, the Cubs would find a way to outlast the Brewers. Minutes later Ryan Braun hit a two-run homer to give the Milwaukee the lead; don't expect to see me in church anytime soon.

So it's over now, with the death blow delivered by the Florida Marlins for the second straight season. Blood should flow throughout the concourses of Citi Field this off-season, from the general manager's office all the way down to the home team's clubhouse. Massive change is badly needed, but with the Wilpons inexplicably leaking word of a four-year extension fpr Omar Minaya earlier this week, there's little reason to believe that such massive change will take place.

This isn't Jerry Manuel's fault, of course, but he probably has to go too. Any reminders of the horrors we've seen over the last two years must be completely scrubbed out, and that includes the job of a man who really deserves better. Manuel will land on his feet; he deserves a shot at one of the vacant managerial jobs in the off-season.

As for me, I'd still love to see Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman given the manager's chair, but the Wilpons will probably hand the job over to a retread with a recognizable name and a timid personality. This is a loser franchise, after all, and they will surely go for another loser instead of taking a chance on someone who might upset the apple cart while winning ballgames.

There can be little to complain about with Oliver Perez's performance, even though he probably shouldn't be asked to return next season. He was simply brilliant for five innings, and economical enough that he could've easily lasted eight innings if he remained effective. Cameron Maybin's double to lead off the sixth came on a 1-2 pitch at the conclusion of a tough at-bat, and the Marlins dunked in two straight singles that were really more about fortuitous placement than getting good wood on the ball.

Manuel was right to go to Joe Smith when he did, with one out and the bases loaded in the sixth inning. The 1-1 pitch to Josh Willingham was a strike, but that doesn't excuse the next two pitches that were clearly out of the strike zone. Smith made the best of a bad situation after that, getting a pop up and a ground out to get out of the inning. The game was going to be in the hands of The Arson Squad at that point, and we all knew what that was going to mean.

My only other quibble was starting Ryan Church in right field, who has looked terrible this weekend and for large portions of the second half of the season. He looked completely lost at the plate again today, striking out in his first three at-bats, and Church brought nothing to the table that couldn't have been replaced or improved by Endy Chavez or even fan favorite Daniel Murphy.

Then again, Nick Evans made a rookie mistake by throwing to third on Mike Jacobs's deep fly ball to left, and that may have indirectly led to second run of the sixth inning. There are people don't understand why the Mets would shop for a natural left fielder after the season. They think that a platoon of Murphy and Evans should suffice.

What those people do not undertsand is that an infielder's instincts are not easy to overcome and do not automatically translate to the outfield. If you have any doubt about that, look at the play Chavez made to reel in the third out of the seventh inning. Is there any doubt that ball would've sailed over the head or Evans or Murphy and driven in the go-ahead run for the Marlins?

That's not a knock on either rookie, each of whom may have a place on the 2009 Mets anyway. Murphy has spent most of his professional career at third base, while Evans has mostly played first. It's not enough to go out and read Outfield Fundamentals for Dummies; a true outfielder understands that the ball absolutely must go to second base there, to keep the baserunner on first and allow the pitcher an opportunity to get a double play.

If Evans throws to the right base after corralling that first out, Perez might have been left in the game to face Dan Uggla, who has struggled mightily this season against left-handers. Uggla has only grounded into 10 double plays this season, but he has also struck out over 170 times and would've been a great match-up for Perez. It's all academic now, but the simple act of having to play two rookie infielders out of position for so much of the season had a profound effect on this game.

As for me, I don't know when I'll be able to come back to this blog again. It is a catalogue of failure, six months of abject failure, and there is no other way to look at this lost season. I have had my heart ripped out of my throat by this baseball team for three straight years now, and I don't know how or why I'm supposed to come back for more. Perhaps the closing of Shea Stadium closes a chapter of my life even more completely than I could've ever imagined.

I just don't see how much longer this relationship can continue.

Weekend in Review

It hurt like hell to watch the Mets drop two out of three to the Braves this weekend. The lead in the NL East is down to one game and the comparisons between 2007 and 2008 have been flying for about two weeks now.

Here's the difference: the tough losses the Mets have had this September haven't been particularly out of the ordinary. In 2007, the Mets were losing games that they simply had no business losing. Everything fell apart against inferior teams - the starters pitched poorly, the bullpen blew leads and the lineup didn't hit.

This year's team has a glaring and obvious weakness - its bullpen. Yes, the lineup did a very bad job of tacking on runs this weekend, but the relief corps bears the brunt of responsibility for the most recent losses. That is exactly what you would've expected to happen to a team running out a series of mediocre or worse hurlers to nail down important games in a pennant race.

Bad set-up men give up leads in the eighth inning. I was actually happy that Jerry Manuel let Johan Santana start the eighth on Saturday afternoon, because it showed me that he knew his "tired" starter was more effective than his bullpen. Scott Schoeneweis is a bad reliever, so it's no surprise he couldn't get the batter he was supposed to. Brian Stokes has given the Mets 25 good innings, but his track record suggests that he is a bad reliever. It's also no surprise when he fails to get the job done and gives up the lead.

Bad closers blow leads in the ninth inning, the way Luis Ayala did in Sunday's loss. There's a reason why the Mets were able to pick up Ayala at the low, low cost of Anderson Hernandez last month. Ayala simply hasn't been that good since ruining his elbow in 2006. He's given the Mets 10 good innings this year and has filled in servicably for Billy Wagner, but we're not exactly talking about Eric Gagne in the prime of his career here.

The Mets are a very good team with a very bad bullpen. Those teams are going to struggle to win consistently when the bullpen is always on the verge of giving away a lead. That's why this feels nothing like 2007 to me, because it's unfair to expect this team to keep winning at the rate they have been with such bad relievers.

One final note: I originally went on a vitriolic rant about how the Mets are screwing ticket holders like myself for Friday night's rainout by only offering an exchange to any game the rest of the 2008 season. Perhaps you already know this, but this is the final season the Mets will play home games at Shea Stadium, so ticket sales for the final homestand have been selling ... somewhat briskly.

I could not understand why the Mets would not offer fans the option of sitting in the cheapest seats for a game of their choice (subject to availability, of course) at Citi Field next season. I noted that the Mets could even limit exchanges to "bronze" or "value" games and it would still have been looked upon as a good-faith gesture that many fans (such as myself) would appreciate the opportunity to have.

And now I'm confused. Originally, the word was that the tickets could be exchanged for one of the final six games of this season. But following the links from the team website, I'm getting the message that you can exchange them for Citi Field games next season. Anyone know the definitive answer to this question?

Why Whine Over Wagner?

Has a season-ending elbow injury to a playoff contender's All-Star closer ever seemed less anti-climactic?

Billy Wagner's Met career is over, unless he's willing to take a one-year, incentive-laden deal for 2010. (Wagner has talked before about retiring from baseball at the end of his Mets deal, but I don't think he'll allow his career to end like this.)

Well, Jimmy crack corn, and I don't care. The Mets bullpen hadn't given up a run in its last 22 innings before Philadelphia tacked one on at the end of last night's win. The Mets are 22-11 since Wagner last pitched on August 2. Despite the odds being against them, the Mets are not only surviving, but they are also thriving.

Now look, it's obviously not a good thing that Wagner is out for this season and all of 2009. He's still the best reliever in the Mets' bullpen by a country mile (pun intended). The Mets' bullpen is still a carnival sideshow these days, hot streak notwithstanding. The Mets may well hold off the Phillies to win the division, but I find it very hard to believe they can win a playoff series without a legitimate reliever in the bullpen.

(Notice I didn't say a "legitimate closer," because that underestimates the state of the Mets' bullpen now. A closer is important in today's game, but it's much more important to have several multi-inning relievers who can get lefties and righties out at a reasonable rate.)

Wagner wasn't bad as a Met; he saved 101 games and kept an ERA under 3.00 in all three seasons. But his WHIP in 2006 and 2007 was in the 1.100 range - far behind his performance in six of the seven previous seasons and a strong indicator that Wagner's most dominant days were behind him. That's the problem with signing closers in their mid-30s - you're paying for past performance, and it's extremely likely that the future performance won't match up.

He also blew seven saves this season and has developed a reputation among Mets fans for being unreliable in big games. I generally don't put much stock in playoff stats - sample size is a very big issue - but Wagner has a career 9.58 postseason ERA and has given up runs in six of 11 appearances. Mets fans won't soon forget how poorly he pitched in 2006 against St. Louis, blowing Game 2 and very nearly blowing Game 6.

The Mets will survive without Wagner, one way or the other. Now the question is this - who is the closer, both short-term and long-term? Luis Ayala's high-wire act will continue for the rest of the season, with Brian Stokes perhaps next in line if Ayala regresses to the mean. It is a scary thought - the Mets with a one-run lead and three outs to go to clinch a playoff series, and here comes Ayala or Stokes out of the bullpen to try to nail things down. At this point, what else can you do? Pray hard, my friends - and not for an oil pipeline in Alaska.

Long-term, Luis Ayala is not your closer. The Mets will unfortunately go out and invest too many years and too much money in a closer in the off-season, because that's what they do. The Mets never groom young guys to take over for the many overpriced veterans who leave the team with a fork sticking in their back. Why not have an open competition in spring training and see which reliever is ready to claim the job? Because that doesn't sell copies of the Daily News.

I am honestly starting to belief that Little Jeffy goes out and buys a few packs of baseball cards, and then directs the general manager to go out and sign the first free agent that isn't stuck to a piece of bubble gum. I guess that means I have to hope that the Francisco Rodriguez cards are under-produced by Topps this off-season. Not much chance of that!

Relax, Jerry

Jerry Manuel is managing scared, and in doing so he's only making a bad situation worse.

Look, if there's anything that the first five months of the 2008 season has taught us, it is that the Mets' bullpen isn't very good. Mets fans have gotten spoiled in the last few years, so despite the way they may be feeling about their relievers they really don't remember what it's like to have a truly bad bullpen. But it's safe to say that, as currently constructed, this bullpen is in the lower half of the National League and certainly isn't of a playoff team's caliber.

The bullpen is a weakness, but Manuel isn't helping by showing absolutely no faith in his relievers. He has kicked the mixing and matching into high gear over the last 10 days, even with relievers who are not specialists by nature. It's fine to use pitchers like Scott Schoenweis and Pedro Feliciano as specialists, but at some point you have to show enough faith in your other relievers to get the outs they need to get out of the inning.

It's gotten to the point that every time a reliever comes in, there's another one already in the bullpen warming up. That's no way for a reliever to gain confidence and leads to a natural tendency to press. What's more, it tires out relievers who, even if they don't get into the game, never get a day or two to fully rest their arms.

Today's win was very nice, especially since the bullpen combined to put up four scoreless frames. Even so, with a 6-2 lead in the ninth inning, Manuel had Luis Ayala warming up behind Brian Stokes. All Stokes had done to that point was to allow a leadoff single and then run a 3-1 count on Alfredo Amezaga. It wasn't a great start, but you have to believe that a major league reliever can nevertheless get out of this situation without giving up four runs.

The Mets will begin the month of September with a one-game lead over the Phillies. Help clearly is not on the way, even though it was announced during the game that the Mets were calling up nine more players (including four relievers) when the rosters expand tomorrow. It's hard to imagine Manuel isn't going to look at the new arms as a fresh troop of reinforcements, ready to be plugged right into the situational matchups that call for them. But if Manuel continues to over-manage, he's going to wear out the Mets' bullpen in the same fashion the former manager did last season.

No one wants to see a repeat of that.