Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Roster Moves: Mets Sign Sullivan, Church, Pagan and A. Reyes

Well, this is interesting.

The Mets just signed a left-handed hitting defensive outfielder known more for his glove than his bat - and it wasn't Jeremy Reed. On the surface, I don't see anything resembling a fit - Sullivan, Reed and the newly-signed Angel Pagan are all basically the same player, except that Pagan is a switch-hitter. It would be foolish to have two good glove, no-hit outfielders on the roster, especially since none of the players previously mentioned can steal a base. I just can't see why the Mets would carry more than one of them on the 25-man roster, especially considering that left-handed hitting Marlon Anderson is still in the mix for an outfield backup spot as well.

That leads to an obvious question - is a trade in the works? Sullivan just signed for $300K less than Reed, although with incentives they culd end up roughly making the same amount. Reed is two youngers younger and although the label of "failed prospect" has been attached, there's always someone willing to take a chance on a lightning in a bottle.

As for Church, he will be starting in right field next season and, if he stays healthy, will be given 150 games to prove, once and for all, if he can be an above-average player at the major league level. Pagan will fight for a backup job in the Mets' outfield, but I'm betting that his remaining minor-league options will work against him.

Also, Aregenis Reyes is back in the system, signing a minor-league deal. He'll play for Buffalo next season and is not included below, because he hasn't been added to the 40-man roster.

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Tim Redding
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Duaner Sanchez
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed
Cory Sullivan
Angel Pagan
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

Monday, January 19, 2009

Roster Moves: Mets Sign Cora, Sanchez, Reed

Alex Cora will be the backup middle infielder, Duaner Sanchez slots into a bullpen role somewhere and Jeremy Reed will hopefully be taking the Endy Chavez role as the first defensive replacement in the outfield. These are all minor moves, but important to consider when you look at how the roster is taking shape.

I continue to say that there is no room to add a free agent outfielder - even if our general manager wasn't running around with blinders on - unless Marlon Anderson is traded or released. Even if you get cute and consider Tatis the corner infield backup and Cora the middle infield backup, there's still only room for five outfielders on the roster. Daniel Murphy, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Church are the likely starters and I can't imagine Jeremy Reed was just given over $900,000 to start in center field for Buffalo.

That still leaves Anderson, Angel Pagan and Nick Evans as outfielders on the 40-man roster fighting for the fifth spot. Evans is almost certainly ticketed for Buffalo and it wouldn't be surprising if Pagan was asked to join him, although I suppose it would be equally unsurprising if Pagan beat out Reed for the defensive backup job with a hot Spring Training. The Mets still can't add Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or any other free agent outfielder unless they deal with the Anderson issue.

As always, I have the answer:
1) Release Marlon Anderson
2) Sign/trade for a corner outfielder who can hit, preferably right-handed
3) Success!!

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Tim Redding
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Duaner Sanchez
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

(Non) Roster Move - Braves Sign Derek Lowe

The "one dumb owner theory" rears its ugly head again.

The Braves committed too many years and too much money to Derek Lowe today, completely misreading the depressed free agent market and jacking their payroll to what (for them) is an unsustainable level. The best thing about this signing for Atlanta is putting a crimp in the plans of Mets GM Omar Minaya, who reasonably thought that no one would significantly top the 3-year, $36 million he previously made to Lowe.

This is a classic panic move, directly related to the backlash that Atlanta faced for letting John Smoltz leave last week. It is the exact scenario that Lowe's agent Scott Boras thrives on.

Boras has always used the "one dumb owner" theory to his advantage. More often than not, the one dumb owner in question bears the last name of Steinbrenner. On those occasions when the Yankees aren't interested in overpaying, Boras simply does what any good agent should do - he lies through his teeth to get his client a deal. He first tries to convince teams that this particular player is worthy of whatever financial bounty he's seeking, then he creates an artificial market for that player's services by claiming that several teams are trying to sign him. Inevitably, one dumb owner caves and meets Boras's demands, even if there was no market for the player at that price.

That's exactly what happened here. Only one team made an offer to Derek Lowe - the Mets, who offered him a reasonable contract length and AAV, considering his age and his accomplishments. The Braves tacked on another guaranteed year and $3 million to the AAV, even though there is no indication that any other team was preparing to make an offer that included that many years or that much money per season.

In the worst free agent market for players since the collusion era, the Braves come out of this looking like royal suckers. Atlanta has a very solid rotation now, but will likely cut payroll just to make room for Lowe in 2009. It certainly hamstrings their financial flexibility from 2010 to 2012, no small consideration for a franchise owned by a media corporation that is generally not inclined to spend with the big boys anymore.

It hurts to lose a quality starter like Lowe to a division rival, but Minaya did the right thing here. I have been critical about Minaya many times in this space, but there's one thing he always does that I never had a quarrel with. Omar Minaya understands a very simple, but very important concept - huge free agent contracts should only be given to elite players, not to second-tier stars.

Derek Lowe is a very good starting pitcher. He's durable, he throws a lot of innings and his kept his ERA under 4.00 for the last four years. Not quite a staff ace, Lowe is a serviceable #2 or an excellent #3 starter at this point in his career. He is also turning 36 in 2009, gives up 200 hits a year and simply is not a good candidate to sustain his level of performance over the life of the deal.

The temptation to give in Lowe's demands must have been enormous, but history shows that short-term gain usually leads to long-term pain. The Mets have been burned throughout their history by adding extra guaranteed years to free agent deals - Bobby Bonilla, Kevin Appier, Julio Franco, Scott Shoeneweis, Marlon Anderson and even Pedro Martinez all are on that sad list. Giving in to Derek Lowe's demands would've made headlines, but ultimately would've only added one more name to that Pantheon of Poor Decisions.

The Mets' gaze now likely falls on Oliver Perez to fill the final spot in the rotation, although I remain hopeful that Minaya makes a two-year, incentive-laden offer to Ben Sheets at some point.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Roster Move: Mets Sign Redding

Yuck.

I hope you weren't expecting some sober, looking-on-the-bright-side analysis here. In a market where Derek Lowe has only one real suitor, and Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets can't even get a multi-year offer on the table, why would a major league general manager waste even $2 million on the likes of Tim Redding?

Redding has spent his 20s proving that he doesn't belong in the major leagues. He's been tattooed by batters in two different leagues, while pitching for four different teams. A two-year layaway ended in 2007 with two thoroughly mediocre seasons as the nominal staff ace in Washington.

His 2008 season is being trumpeted as some type of career year, as though a 4.95 ERA and a 1.429 WHIP is something to get excited about. Yes, he had seven wins and a decent ERA at the All-Star Break, but Redding quickly reverted back to form after July 15, clocking in with a 1.590 WHIP and an earned run average approaching 7.00. The Nationals were so impressed with Redding's overall performance that they non-tendered him in December.

Now he is a Met, presumably taking the fifth starter's job away from Jon Niese, Pedro Martinez or some other similarly deserving reclamation project. This should also end any dreams of a Santana-Lowe-Pelfrey-Perez-Maine rotation, although if Tim Redding ends up serving as the #4 starter, the Mets won't have to worry about a third straight September collapse. They won't be playing any meaningful games in the final month of the season anyway.

The only good thing I can think of about this deal is that it's only for one year, and at a price that probably isn't high enough to keep the Mets from shifting Redding into middle relief or outright releasing him by mid-summer. Jon Niese, don't go buying any real estate in Buffalo just yet.

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Tim Redding
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Duaner Sanchez
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Running Out of Opportunities

On Monday, Ken Rosenthal reported that two more corner outfielders were coming off the market - Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley. These signings represent two more missed opportunities by the Mets, who desperately need to add a right-handed bat or a switch hitter to a lineup that is far too left-handed right now.

That's why Burrell actually should've been a key target for the Mets this off-season. Although the Mets seem content to begin the 2009 season with Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy as platoon partners in left field, they would be making a big mistake by doing so.

Earlier in the off-season, I put forth the notion that the Mets should sign one of the many good-hit, no-glove corner outfielders saturating the market right now. The Mets could've had their pick of Burrell, Bradley, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or Raul Ibanez. (Bradley is actually a pretty good fielder when he's healthy enough to man a position, but he seems more suited to the designated hitter role to rest his perpetually aching body.)

When so many players featuring a similar skill set are on the open market, the going rate for such players is lower than in years where few options are available. It's a simple case of supply and demand - there are more free agent corner outifelders demanding big money than teams who are willing to meet those demands.

This scenario has played out all winter. Ibanez bit first, taking a 3-year, $31.5 million deal from Philadelphia in December. Early off-season speculation sometimes put Ibanez's AAV as high as $15 million, so at the time it actually seemed like a good deal for the Phillies to get him at $10.5 per year. Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. must be having some second thoughts today, after seeing Burrell and Bradley signing for lower AAVs despite both players being much younger and arguably more productive offensively.

The Burrell signing was the real shocker. Bradley has consistently had health and temperment issues throughout his tumultuous career, so any risk-averse GM could be forgiven for passing on him. However, Pat Burrell is an absolute steal at just $8 million a year over a two-year period. Although he struggled to meet expectations in his mid-20s (save for a breakout 2002 season), Burrell has comfortably settled into a reliable .250/.380/.500 groove over the last four seasons. He's always good for 30 home runs and last season banged out nearly 70 extra-base hits.

All of which brings us back to the Mets. If the season started tomorrow, here is the lineup card Jerry Manuel would likely write out:

Jose Reyes - S
Luis Castillo - S
Carlos Beltran - S
David Wright - R
Carlos Delgado -L
Ryan Church - L
Daniel Murphy - L
Brian Schneider - L

What's wrong with this picture? ... No, it's not only that Luis Castillo is in the lineup. I told you that Omar Minaya wasn't going to be able to trade him!

The problem is that the Mets are going to be especially vulnerable to left-handed pitching next season. The bottom of the lineup in particular is a lefty specialist's dream and without some right-handed balance, the Mets are going to be exposed in late inning situations all year long.

Sure, Manuel could bat Castillo eighth in the lineup - where he belongs - and move Church or Murphy into the #2 spot. Such a move would especially benefit Murphy, who some Met fans seem to think is going to be the next Chase Utley no matter where he plays. I happen to like Murphy as a player, although the hype reminds me an awful lot of Gregg Jeffries right now. I still say that he should be given a super-utility role next season, getting 300 at-bats backing up at first base, second base, third base and left field.

Even in this scenario, you still have left-handed batters hitting fifth, sixth and seventh, none of whom can be expected to do anything other than flail helplessly at southpaw offerings. Instead, look at the difference in the lineup if the Mets subtracted Muprhy, added Burrell and batted Castillo eighth:

Jose Reyes - S
Ryan Church - L
Carlos Beltran - S
David Wright - R
Carlos Delgado -L
Pat Burrell - R
Brian Schneider - L
Luis Castillo - S

That lineup is much more balanced and, on the strength of Burrell's bat alone, more dangerous against lefties. Murphy could still substitute for Castillo twice a week and even spell Wright, Burrell and Delgado on occasion, getting 70 starts next year while the Mets figure out where his future spot on the diamond will be. Tatis can still be a platoon player against lefties and see time at first base and right field.

The Mets have spent the last two seasons paying a good-hit, no-glove left fielder $8 million a year to bat behind Carlos Delgado and add a right-handed presence to the lineup. On Monday, a good-hit, no-glove left fielder ten years younger than Moises Alou signed with Tampa Bay for nearly the exact same rate. Where was Omar Minaya?