On Monday, Ken Rosenthal reported that two more corner outfielders were coming off the market - Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley. These signings represent two more missed opportunities by the Mets, who desperately need to add a right-handed bat or a switch hitter to a lineup that is far too left-handed right now.
That's why Burrell actually should've been a key target for the Mets this off-season. Although the Mets seem content to begin the 2009 season with Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy as platoon partners in left field, they would be making a big mistake by doing so.
Earlier in the off-season, I put forth the notion that the Mets should sign one of the many good-hit, no-glove corner outfielders saturating the market right now. The Mets could've had their pick of Burrell, Bradley, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or Raul Ibanez. (Bradley is actually a pretty good fielder when he's healthy enough to man a position, but he seems more suited to the designated hitter role to rest his perpetually aching body.)
When so many players featuring a similar skill set are on the open market, the going rate for such players is lower than in years where few options are available. It's a simple case of supply and demand - there are more free agent corner outifelders demanding big money than teams who are willing to meet those demands.
This scenario has played out all winter. Ibanez bit first, taking a 3-year, $31.5 million deal from Philadelphia in December. Early off-season speculation sometimes put Ibanez's AAV as high as $15 million, so at the time it actually seemed like a good deal for the Phillies to get him at $10.5 per year. Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. must be having some second thoughts today, after seeing Burrell and Bradley signing for lower AAVs despite both players being much younger and arguably more productive offensively.
The Burrell signing was the real shocker. Bradley has consistently had health and temperment issues throughout his tumultuous career, so any risk-averse GM could be forgiven for passing on him. However, Pat Burrell is an absolute steal at just $8 million a year over a two-year period. Although he struggled to meet expectations in his mid-20s (save for a breakout 2002 season), Burrell has comfortably settled into a reliable .250/.380/.500 groove over the last four seasons. He's always good for 30 home runs and last season banged out nearly 70 extra-base hits.
All of which brings us back to the Mets. If the season started tomorrow, here is the lineup card Jerry Manuel would likely write out:
Jose Reyes - S
Luis Castillo - S
Carlos Beltran - S
David Wright - R
Carlos Delgado -L
Ryan Church - L
Daniel Murphy - L
Brian Schneider - L
What's wrong with this picture? ... No, it's not only that Luis Castillo is in the lineup. I told you that Omar Minaya wasn't going to be able to trade him!
The problem is that the Mets are going to be especially vulnerable to left-handed pitching next season. The bottom of the lineup in particular is a lefty specialist's dream and without some right-handed balance, the Mets are going to be exposed in late inning situations all year long.
Sure, Manuel could bat Castillo eighth in the lineup - where he belongs - and move Church or Murphy into the #2 spot. Such a move would especially benefit Murphy, who some Met fans seem to think is going to be the next Chase Utley no matter where he plays. I happen to like Murphy as a player, although the hype reminds me an awful lot of Gregg Jeffries right now. I still say that he should be given a super-utility role next season, getting 300 at-bats backing up at first base, second base, third base and left field.
Even in this scenario, you still have left-handed batters hitting fifth, sixth and seventh, none of whom can be expected to do anything other than flail helplessly at southpaw offerings. Instead, look at the difference in the lineup if the Mets subtracted Muprhy, added Burrell and batted Castillo eighth:
Jose Reyes - S
Ryan Church - L
Carlos Beltran - S
David Wright - R
Carlos Delgado -L
Pat Burrell - R
Brian Schneider - L
Luis Castillo - S
That lineup is much more balanced and, on the strength of Burrell's bat alone, more dangerous against lefties. Murphy could still substitute for Castillo twice a week and even spell Wright, Burrell and Delgado on occasion, getting 70 starts next year while the Mets figure out where his future spot on the diamond will be. Tatis can still be a platoon player against lefties and see time at first base and right field.
The Mets have spent the last two seasons paying a good-hit, no-glove left fielder $8 million a year to bat behind Carlos Delgado and add a right-handed presence to the lineup. On Monday, a good-hit, no-glove left fielder ten years younger than Moises Alou signed with Tampa Bay for nearly the exact same rate. Where was Omar Minaya?
Showing posts with label Head Scratcher. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Head Scratcher. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Head Scratcher: 7/22/08
Batting seventh for the New York Mets tonight: Marlon Anderson. Batting eighth for the New York Mets tonight: Ramon Castro. A side-by-side comparison going into the game:
Anderson - .205/.242/.286 with one home run in 112 at-bats
Castro - .289/.359/.494 with four home runs in 83 at-bats
Does that make any kind of sense? I thought we left this type of silliness behind when the Mets fired their manager last month.
Anderson - .205/.242/.286 with one home run in 112 at-bats
Castro - .289/.359/.494 with four home runs in 83 at-bats
Does that make any kind of sense? I thought we left this type of silliness behind when the Mets fired their manager last month.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
No Twin Killing Here
I was reading Mets Fever on Tuesday, where Ed Ryan was musing about the possibility of adding Michael Cuddyer to address the Mets' corner outfield needs. I'm not a big fan of Cuddyer; he's having a terrible season in 2008 and only recently migrated to right field on a full-time basis. Cuddyer strikes me as more of a potential platoon partner for Ryan Church, although he has not hit lefties as hard this season as he has throughout the course of his career. He's also in the first year of a 3-year, $24 million contract with a club option in 2011. Verdict: Pass!
What was so amazing to me is that Ed was speculating about Cuddyer based on a Charley Waters column in the St. Paul Pioneer Press this week:
It will be interesting whether the Twins try to package Michael Cuddyer and Livan Hernandez in a trade for a slugging third baseman before the July 31 deadline, saving $20 million in guaranteed money to Cuddyer and $2.5 million to Hernandez ... One problem, though: finding a team willing to take on the salaries. The Twins say they haven't had room for (Francisco) Liriano in the starting rotation.
I guess it would be interesting in the sense to see how quickly a general manager who gave up a slugging third baseman for that package would be fired. Cuddyer is a better player than his 2008 numbers indicate, but his poor start means that the Twins are destined to get a poor return if they trade him while his value is low. Hernandez, meanwhile, is simply the worst starting pitcher in baseball.
He actually got off to a fast start in 2008, winning his first three starts and giving the Twins seven good innings each time out. But in 20 starts overall, Hernandez has a 5.44 ERA - nearly a run and a half higher than the league average - and a 1.624 WHIP. Those numbers rise to a 6.05 ERA and a 1.747 WHIP in the 17 starts made after April 11, which are frighteningly bad numbers.
In case you aren't convinced of Hernandez's awfulness, here's one more stat to consider - opponents are batting .342/.368/.506 against Hernandez in 2008. That's like turning every hitter you face into the 1971 version of this Hall of Famer.
It makes all the sense in the world for the Twins to want to trade Cuddyer and Hernandez, but I can't imagine there's another team in baseball who would want both of them. Certainly not the Mets, who would then be stuck with Cuddyer for two more years and might even make the grave mistake of trying to find room for Hernandez in their rotation. I wouldn't give up Jimmie Feldman for that package of players.
What was so amazing to me is that Ed was speculating about Cuddyer based on a Charley Waters column in the St. Paul Pioneer Press this week:
It will be interesting whether the Twins try to package Michael Cuddyer and Livan Hernandez in a trade for a slugging third baseman before the July 31 deadline, saving $20 million in guaranteed money to Cuddyer and $2.5 million to Hernandez ... One problem, though: finding a team willing to take on the salaries. The Twins say they haven't had room for (Francisco) Liriano in the starting rotation.
I guess it would be interesting in the sense to see how quickly a general manager who gave up a slugging third baseman for that package would be fired. Cuddyer is a better player than his 2008 numbers indicate, but his poor start means that the Twins are destined to get a poor return if they trade him while his value is low. Hernandez, meanwhile, is simply the worst starting pitcher in baseball.
He actually got off to a fast start in 2008, winning his first three starts and giving the Twins seven good innings each time out. But in 20 starts overall, Hernandez has a 5.44 ERA - nearly a run and a half higher than the league average - and a 1.624 WHIP. Those numbers rise to a 6.05 ERA and a 1.747 WHIP in the 17 starts made after April 11, which are frighteningly bad numbers.
In case you aren't convinced of Hernandez's awfulness, here's one more stat to consider - opponents are batting .342/.368/.506 against Hernandez in 2008. That's like turning every hitter you face into the 1971 version of this Hall of Famer.
It makes all the sense in the world for the Twins to want to trade Cuddyer and Hernandez, but I can't imagine there's another team in baseball who would want both of them. Certainly not the Mets, who would then be stuck with Cuddyer for two more years and might even make the grave mistake of trying to find room for Hernandez in their rotation. I wouldn't give up Jimmie Feldman for that package of players.
Monday, June 30, 2008
Head Scratcher: 6/30/08
I was surprised to see Jerry Manuel take Carlos Delgado out in the eighth inning of Sunday's game for defensive purposes. I'd have to look at his UZR, but I don't think Delgado is as bad as a defensive first baseman as his reputation suggests. Although his range is limited, Delgado seems to do a very good job scooping balls in the dirt. Regardless, using a defensive replacement for Delgado wasn't a bad move, if for no other reason than it showed Manuel was more concerned about winning a game than he was about Delgado's feelings. The previous manager seemed to have an issue with that.
That said, using Fernando Tatis is a defensive replacement WAS a bad move, because Fernando Tatis is not a skilled defensive first baseman. He's not really a first baseman at all - Tatis has made only nine appearances there in his major league career and has never played there in the minor leagues. So what the hell was Manuel thinking when he gave this quote to Newsday?
"I think, as a manager, that Tatis is a tremendous first baseman and I don't think it would be fair to the team if I didn't do that [use him as a defensive substitute]," Manuel said.
Say what? Does Manuel really think Tatis can field first base the way Keith Hernandez did, just because he wears the same number Mex wore? Unless he is some sort of fielding savant, Fernando Tatis is a barely competent first baseman who probably is not a defensive upgrade from Carlos Delgado, as incredible as that may sound. Andy Phillips was on the bench and certainly would've made more sense than Tatis in that situation, but for some reason the Mets think he's a left fielder now.
Fernando Tatis at first. Andy Phillips in left field. Marlon Anderson on a major league roster. Hilariouser and hilariouser.
That said, using Fernando Tatis is a defensive replacement WAS a bad move, because Fernando Tatis is not a skilled defensive first baseman. He's not really a first baseman at all - Tatis has made only nine appearances there in his major league career and has never played there in the minor leagues. So what the hell was Manuel thinking when he gave this quote to Newsday?
"I think, as a manager, that Tatis is a tremendous first baseman and I don't think it would be fair to the team if I didn't do that [use him as a defensive substitute]," Manuel said.
Say what? Does Manuel really think Tatis can field first base the way Keith Hernandez did, just because he wears the same number Mex wore? Unless he is some sort of fielding savant, Fernando Tatis is a barely competent first baseman who probably is not a defensive upgrade from Carlos Delgado, as incredible as that may sound. Andy Phillips was on the bench and certainly would've made more sense than Tatis in that situation, but for some reason the Mets think he's a left fielder now.
Fernando Tatis at first. Andy Phillips in left field. Marlon Anderson on a major league roster. Hilariouser and hilariouser.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Where's Wally?
It should come as no surprise to even my most casual reader that I am not a Willie Randolph supporter. Hindsight may be 20-20, but I was vocal in my opposition to hiring Randolph days after the 2004 season ended.
Toward the end of that post, I endorsed two candidates to replace the unlamented Art Howe - Bobby Valentine and Wally Backman. Valentine was a pipe dream, of course; he had been fired just two seasons before after losing control of the clubhouse. The 2003 and 2004 seasons, in my mind, were further proof that the problem was with the players and not with Valentine. Even his most ardent detractors would struggle to argue that he's not an intelligent baseball mind - Valentine's problem was and always will be based on personality issues.
My second choice at the time was Wally Backman, which back then was hardly far-fetched. Backman was perhaps the hottest managerial candidate of the 2004 off-season. He had just been named the Sporting News Manager of the Year with Lancaster in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization and had won league championships at two previous stops. If anyone was going to give the Mets the kick in the ass they so sorely needed after three dreary campaigns, it was going to be Wally's boot administering the attitude adjustment.
Things went differently. The Diamondbacks promoted Backman from Lancaster to run the big club and the Mets hired Randolph days later. By the time they did, Wally had bigger issues than filling out the lineup card.
Three seasons later, Randolph has proven to show little to no acumen for managing a major league ballclub and there are serious questions about his leadership ability - the one thing he supposedly brought to the table above all else. Backman is managing as well, this time for the Joliet Jackhammers in the Northern League.
Backman won the South Coast League championship with the South Georgia Peanuts in 2007, in a wild season that saw his players forfeit a game after an on-field brawl and saw Backman quit his job after constant feuding with league officials about the professionalsim and quality of league umpires, only to return three days later to finish out the season.
The Peanuts' championship season has been immortalized by the TV show "Playing for Peanuts," a 10-episode behind the scenes look at South Georgia's title run currently airing on sports stations across the country. One of those stations just happens to be SNY, home of the New York Mets.
You may not know this, because SNY isn't exactly going out of its way to promote it. There doesn't appear to be any mention of the show on SNY's website and I haven't seen a commercial for the program yet. Mike Silva from Dugout Central noted SNY's apparent disinterest in promoting the show, speculating that it might have something to do with Randolph's job status.
"The real question to me is why haven’t we heard more about the attributes of Wally Backman? Here in New York the Mets television affiliate (SNY) ran the debut of the show hours after a game with the Cincinnati Reds. There was no mention of this show before, during or after the game ... This kind of treatment of a player that meant so much to the Mets franchise during his tenure can only mean one of the following: SNY is completely clueless on how to promote a great product, or they are under gag order to not embrace a controversial figure ... Those that are conspiracy theorists may note that current Mets manager Willie Randolph has been taken a beating by the media and fans since the start of the season. Displaying Backman’s prowess as a manager might put Willie in an even more negative light. The last thing Mets management needs now is to give their fan base more fodder."
Toward the end of that post, I endorsed two candidates to replace the unlamented Art Howe - Bobby Valentine and Wally Backman. Valentine was a pipe dream, of course; he had been fired just two seasons before after losing control of the clubhouse. The 2003 and 2004 seasons, in my mind, were further proof that the problem was with the players and not with Valentine. Even his most ardent detractors would struggle to argue that he's not an intelligent baseball mind - Valentine's problem was and always will be based on personality issues.
My second choice at the time was Wally Backman, which back then was hardly far-fetched. Backman was perhaps the hottest managerial candidate of the 2004 off-season. He had just been named the Sporting News Manager of the Year with Lancaster in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization and had won league championships at two previous stops. If anyone was going to give the Mets the kick in the ass they so sorely needed after three dreary campaigns, it was going to be Wally's boot administering the attitude adjustment.
Things went differently. The Diamondbacks promoted Backman from Lancaster to run the big club and the Mets hired Randolph days later. By the time they did, Wally had bigger issues than filling out the lineup card.
Three seasons later, Randolph has proven to show little to no acumen for managing a major league ballclub and there are serious questions about his leadership ability - the one thing he supposedly brought to the table above all else. Backman is managing as well, this time for the Joliet Jackhammers in the Northern League.
Backman won the South Coast League championship with the South Georgia Peanuts in 2007, in a wild season that saw his players forfeit a game after an on-field brawl and saw Backman quit his job after constant feuding with league officials about the professionalsim and quality of league umpires, only to return three days later to finish out the season.
The Peanuts' championship season has been immortalized by the TV show "Playing for Peanuts," a 10-episode behind the scenes look at South Georgia's title run currently airing on sports stations across the country. One of those stations just happens to be SNY, home of the New York Mets.
You may not know this, because SNY isn't exactly going out of its way to promote it. There doesn't appear to be any mention of the show on SNY's website and I haven't seen a commercial for the program yet. Mike Silva from Dugout Central noted SNY's apparent disinterest in promoting the show, speculating that it might have something to do with Randolph's job status.
"The real question to me is why haven’t we heard more about the attributes of Wally Backman? Here in New York the Mets television affiliate (SNY) ran the debut of the show hours after a game with the Cincinnati Reds. There was no mention of this show before, during or after the game ... This kind of treatment of a player that meant so much to the Mets franchise during his tenure can only mean one of the following: SNY is completely clueless on how to promote a great product, or they are under gag order to not embrace a controversial figure ... Those that are conspiracy theorists may note that current Mets manager Willie Randolph has been taken a beating by the media and fans since the start of the season. Displaying Backman’s prowess as a manager might put Willie in an even more negative light. The last thing Mets management needs now is to give their fan base more fodder."
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