Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Out of the Blue (Flushing University)
No one expected Omir Santos to play a meaningful role in the Mets' 2009 season. Instead, he's filled in capably during Brian Schneider's absence and has turned some heads around baseball. Read more here ...
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Roster Moves: Why Am I Bothering?
Ken Takahashi in, Casey Fossum out. Don't tell me you're asking for more analysis than that!?
Fine.
Ken Takahashi is a 40-year-old rookie who has finally made his way here after many years playing professionally in Japan. When Jerry Manuel hands him the ball for the first time, probably as soon as tonight, he will make history as the oldest Japanese baseball player to make his MLB debut. Yet another easily forgotten answer to a dubious trivia question involving the New York Mets.
Casey Fossum once had some promise, but that train left the station quite some time ago. Now, Casey Fosuum is only employed as a professional baseball player by virtue of throwing with his left arm. He'll land on his feet somewhere - probably right back in Buffalo.
This entire post should've been a Twitter update.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Livan Hernandez
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Ken Takahashi
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider - DL
Ramon Castro
Omir Santos
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Fine.
Ken Takahashi is a 40-year-old rookie who has finally made his way here after many years playing professionally in Japan. When Jerry Manuel hands him the ball for the first time, probably as soon as tonight, he will make history as the oldest Japanese baseball player to make his MLB debut. Yet another easily forgotten answer to a dubious trivia question involving the New York Mets.
Casey Fossum once had some promise, but that train left the station quite some time ago. Now, Casey Fosuum is only employed as a professional baseball player by virtue of throwing with his left arm. He'll land on his feet somewhere - probably right back in Buffalo.
This entire post should've been a Twitter update.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Livan Hernandez
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Ken Takahashi
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider - DL
Ramon Castro
Omir Santos
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Friday, April 24, 2009
Getting Worried Yet?
The Mets are making a lot of their fans grumpy these days.
On offense, they are firing on nearly all cylinders. They have a .283 team batting average and six of the eight regulars are performing at or above expectations when it comes to their slash stats.
There remains a perception that the Mets cannot hit with runners in the clutch, but the overall stats aren't clearly bearing that out. Their slash stats with men on base, with runners in scoring position and in so-called "clutch situations" are remarkably similar. They are all about 30 points off the pace of "non-clutch situations," which is not good but also is not an unusual difference. Some individuals are struggling more than others (hello, David Wright!), but there is no evidence of the team-wide malaise that some have suggested.
Last week, Adam Rubin of the Daily News suggested that continued ineptitude on the field might lead to some signficiant changes - both on and off the field. Winning 2 out of 3 against the dreadful Nationals this weekend may have stemmed that tide somewhat, but there are two important things to consider about the 2009 New York Mets:
* We are still only 18 games into the season, and firing coaches or demoting core players would look both panicky and vaguely amateurish. It's one thing to release someone like Darren O'Day, who was never being counted on to make a huge impact on the season. It's quite another to try demoting any of your front four starters. Even Oliver Perez, as awful as he's been so far, has no business in the bullpen or in Buffalo. When you make $12 million a year, you get more than four starts before getting bumped from the rotation.
Nothing has happened in the last four weeks that has led me to believe any coach should be fired or re-assigned, because nothing can be legitimately inferred about the Mets by such a small sample size. Oh sure, I have SUSPICIONS - that the starting pitching just isn't that good and that the bullpen is overrated. But I had those suspicions going into the season. Making changes now will just make everyone involved look incompetent for not having recognized these problems in the off-season.
* It may also just be that the Mets aren't playing that badly right now; it may just be that the Mets were never that good in the first place. This entire team was built on a wing and prayer and shockingly enough, not all of these hopes and dreams are panning out.
The only change to the rotation was adding Livan Hernandez - possibly the worst starting pitcher in baseball. The Mets re-made the bullpen by adding a closer with steadily increasing peripherals and a former closer coming off an injury-plagued, ineffective season. The only change to the starting eight was a hot-shot young hitter who was an infielder for his entire minor-league career. Perhaps handing him the starting left fielder's job in the absence of any legitimate alternative wasn't such a hot idea after all.
Omar Minaya was a lazy general manager this offseason. He decided to address only one of the three core areas of his team and simply assumed the other two would be up to snuff. That's a recipe for failure - and so far that's exactly what has been happening.
On offense, they are firing on nearly all cylinders. They have a .283 team batting average and six of the eight regulars are performing at or above expectations when it comes to their slash stats.
There remains a perception that the Mets cannot hit with runners in the clutch, but the overall stats aren't clearly bearing that out. Their slash stats with men on base, with runners in scoring position and in so-called "clutch situations" are remarkably similar. They are all about 30 points off the pace of "non-clutch situations," which is not good but also is not an unusual difference. Some individuals are struggling more than others (hello, David Wright!), but there is no evidence of the team-wide malaise that some have suggested.
Last week, Adam Rubin of the Daily News suggested that continued ineptitude on the field might lead to some signficiant changes - both on and off the field. Winning 2 out of 3 against the dreadful Nationals this weekend may have stemmed that tide somewhat, but there are two important things to consider about the 2009 New York Mets:
* We are still only 18 games into the season, and firing coaches or demoting core players would look both panicky and vaguely amateurish. It's one thing to release someone like Darren O'Day, who was never being counted on to make a huge impact on the season. It's quite another to try demoting any of your front four starters. Even Oliver Perez, as awful as he's been so far, has no business in the bullpen or in Buffalo. When you make $12 million a year, you get more than four starts before getting bumped from the rotation.
Nothing has happened in the last four weeks that has led me to believe any coach should be fired or re-assigned, because nothing can be legitimately inferred about the Mets by such a small sample size. Oh sure, I have SUSPICIONS - that the starting pitching just isn't that good and that the bullpen is overrated. But I had those suspicions going into the season. Making changes now will just make everyone involved look incompetent for not having recognized these problems in the off-season.
* It may also just be that the Mets aren't playing that badly right now; it may just be that the Mets were never that good in the first place. This entire team was built on a wing and prayer and shockingly enough, not all of these hopes and dreams are panning out.
The only change to the rotation was adding Livan Hernandez - possibly the worst starting pitcher in baseball. The Mets re-made the bullpen by adding a closer with steadily increasing peripherals and a former closer coming off an injury-plagued, ineffective season. The only change to the starting eight was a hot-shot young hitter who was an infielder for his entire minor-league career. Perhaps handing him the starting left fielder's job in the absence of any legitimate alternative wasn't such a hot idea after all.
Omar Minaya was a lazy general manager this offseason. He decided to address only one of the three core areas of his team and simply assumed the other two would be up to snuff. That's a recipe for failure - and so far that's exactly what has been happening.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Roster Moves: O'Day Released, Schneider on DL
I got married on Saturday, so I haven't had time to write anything for the better part of a week. I'm going to try to put something original together today or tomorrow, but for now I just want to catch up on the roster changes.
Late last week, Brian Schneider was put on the disabled list with a sore back and the Mets brought up Omir Santos to back up Ramon Castro. I know very little about Santos, other than to say he's not considered the catcher of the future in Flushing. He'll be here until Schneider returns, which probably won't be long now.
Then it was time to say good-bye to Darren O'Day, who was offered back to the Angels to make room for Nelson Figueroa's spot start on Sunday. When California declined, the Mets put him on waivers and the Texas Rangers snatched him up. The Mets really should have sent Bobby Parnell down instead to make room for Figueroa (who was getting the start so that the Mets could skip Mike Pelfrey's start), but they must not have liked something they saw in O'Day. Too small of a sample size to make an informed judgment, says I.
Figueroa spent one day with the big club - much to his wife's chagrin - and the Mets brought up Casey Fossum to take O'Day's spot in the bullpen. Don't get too attached - Fossum is not a major-league pitcher.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Livan Hernandez
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Casey Fossum
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider - DL
Ramon Castro
Omir Santos
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Late last week, Brian Schneider was put on the disabled list with a sore back and the Mets brought up Omir Santos to back up Ramon Castro. I know very little about Santos, other than to say he's not considered the catcher of the future in Flushing. He'll be here until Schneider returns, which probably won't be long now.
Then it was time to say good-bye to Darren O'Day, who was offered back to the Angels to make room for Nelson Figueroa's spot start on Sunday. When California declined, the Mets put him on waivers and the Texas Rangers snatched him up. The Mets really should have sent Bobby Parnell down instead to make room for Figueroa (who was getting the start so that the Mets could skip Mike Pelfrey's start), but they must not have liked something they saw in O'Day. Too small of a sample size to make an informed judgment, says I.
Figueroa spent one day with the big club - much to his wife's chagrin - and the Mets brought up Casey Fossum to take O'Day's spot in the bullpen. Don't get too attached - Fossum is not a major-league pitcher.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Livan Hernandez
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Casey Fossum
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider - DL
Ramon Castro
Omir Santos
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Fist Bump: Mack From Mack's Mets
Some big news for this blog: Mack from Mack's Mets has been kind enough to allow me to contribute to his site, which I will do occasionally throughout the course of the 2009 season. Mack, of course, contributes a daily "Mack Attack" at Flushing University and he is the site's resident minor-league guru.
It will still be Mack's blog, first and foremost, but I am honored that he's even giving me the opportunity to link my work there. (His site also averages about 30 times more hits than Productive Outs does, so I'm hoping that linking there will boost readership here!) Mack will undoubtedly continue to provide the lion's share of content at his site, including his insights about minor league and amateur baseball and his extensive knowledge of the Mets' farm system.
I will usually link to posts from this blog, while providing the occasional original piece related to the minor league system for Mack's Mets. If you haven't already added Mack's Mets to your links, do so right now!
It will still be Mack's blog, first and foremost, but I am honored that he's even giving me the opportunity to link my work there. (His site also averages about 30 times more hits than Productive Outs does, so I'm hoping that linking there will boost readership here!) Mack will undoubtedly continue to provide the lion's share of content at his site, including his insights about minor league and amateur baseball and his extensive knowledge of the Mets' farm system.
I will usually link to posts from this blog, while providing the occasional original piece related to the minor league system for Mack's Mets. If you haven't already added Mack's Mets to your links, do so right now!
More Thoughts on Second-Class Citizens
As I was writing this week's Flushing University column, I had to reconcile myself with a simple truth to remain somewhat even-tempered in my analysis.
There are still some people in New York who legitimately miss the Brooklyn Dodgers and are still sad that they had to watch them leave time. Many of those fans have since embraced the Mets, but the Dodgers (the Brooklyn version) still have a place in their hearts.
But I am not like some of the older guys who have had two baseball loves. My problem, as someone who was born 20 years after the Dodgers skipped town, is that my favorite team has always been the Mets.
The great majority of Mets fans today - myself included - have no connection to the Brooklyn Dodgers. I happen to fall into a smaller subset of those Mets fans who consider themselves actively antagonistic to Brooklyn Dodger-worship.
Even if you buy into the idea that the Mets are in some way the offspring of the Dodgers and the Giants, the Mets have forged a history of their own. They chose not to dedicate even one inch of the grandest space in their new stadium to any aspect of it. I can't help but to find it maddening that the most impressive design aspect of Citi Field is dedicated not to the Mets, but to a player who retired over 50 years ago and played for a team that left town.
There are still some people in New York who legitimately miss the Brooklyn Dodgers and are still sad that they had to watch them leave time. Many of those fans have since embraced the Mets, but the Dodgers (the Brooklyn version) still have a place in their hearts.
But I am not like some of the older guys who have had two baseball loves. My problem, as someone who was born 20 years after the Dodgers skipped town, is that my favorite team has always been the Mets.
The great majority of Mets fans today - myself included - have no connection to the Brooklyn Dodgers. I happen to fall into a smaller subset of those Mets fans who consider themselves actively antagonistic to Brooklyn Dodger-worship.
Even if you buy into the idea that the Mets are in some way the offspring of the Dodgers and the Giants, the Mets have forged a history of their own. They chose not to dedicate even one inch of the grandest space in their new stadium to any aspect of it. I can't help but to find it maddening that the most impressive design aspect of Citi Field is dedicated not to the Mets, but to a player who retired over 50 years ago and played for a team that left town.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Second-Class Citizens (Flushing University)
If a baseball stadium is supposed to be a shrine to its tenants, then the Mets have fallen short with Citi Field. It is a shrine to a franchise that no longer exists – and to a man that never suited up for the home team. Read more here ...
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Bench Comparison: Mets vs. Phillies
This topic came up at the Flushing University message boards yesterday and I first weighed in over there. The Mets bench is better this year than it was last year, but I think that Philadelphia has a better corps of reserves.
The Mets do have the advantage at two spots. Miguel Cairo stinks; I would definitely take Alex Cora over him. I would also take Jeremy Reed over Eric Bruntlett, but the difference between the two is mostly on the field and not at the plate.
As for back-up catchers, I would take Chris Coste over Ramon Castro, if I had the choice between the two. Coste has out-hit Castro over the last three seasons; perhaps the only season where Castro was clearly better offensively was in 2007. Castro has a little more power, but Coste stands up well offensively otherwise. I don't know if either one of them is particularly good defensively (I happen think opinions on catcher defense are extremely subjective), but they did throw out a similar percentage of base-stealers last season.
Greg Dobbs and Fernando Tatis are an interesting comparison, but Dobbs is better defensively and has been a valuable bench player for the last two seasons. Tatis was wonderful last year, but I'm not ready to proclaim that it wasn't a fluke. Put it this way - I'm glad Omar Minaya signed Tatis to a one-year deal instead of the two-year specials he has been giving bench players over the last few years.
Gary Sheffield has had a borderline Hall of Fame career (if you don't believe he was on steroids at any point, that is). But right now, he doesn't belong in the same conversation with Matt Stairs. I think Stairs is one of the most underrated hitters of the last 20 years and he's an asset to any bench he sits on.
Stairs can't field, but that just puts him in the same category as Sheff defensively. He remains very dangerous against right-handed pitchers and could still be effective as the dominant half of a DH platoon in the American League. Even at 41, the guy is a mortal lock for 10-plus home runs if he gets 300 plate appearances against righties. He's still patient at the plate and still draws walks - an asset for a pinch-hitter, despite what conventional wisdom might say.
From my count, the Phillies are better at three of the five bench spots and better on the bench overall.
The Mets do have the advantage at two spots. Miguel Cairo stinks; I would definitely take Alex Cora over him. I would also take Jeremy Reed over Eric Bruntlett, but the difference between the two is mostly on the field and not at the plate.
As for back-up catchers, I would take Chris Coste over Ramon Castro, if I had the choice between the two. Coste has out-hit Castro over the last three seasons; perhaps the only season where Castro was clearly better offensively was in 2007. Castro has a little more power, but Coste stands up well offensively otherwise. I don't know if either one of them is particularly good defensively (I happen think opinions on catcher defense are extremely subjective), but they did throw out a similar percentage of base-stealers last season.
Greg Dobbs and Fernando Tatis are an interesting comparison, but Dobbs is better defensively and has been a valuable bench player for the last two seasons. Tatis was wonderful last year, but I'm not ready to proclaim that it wasn't a fluke. Put it this way - I'm glad Omar Minaya signed Tatis to a one-year deal instead of the two-year specials he has been giving bench players over the last few years.
Gary Sheffield has had a borderline Hall of Fame career (if you don't believe he was on steroids at any point, that is). But right now, he doesn't belong in the same conversation with Matt Stairs. I think Stairs is one of the most underrated hitters of the last 20 years and he's an asset to any bench he sits on.
Stairs can't field, but that just puts him in the same category as Sheff defensively. He remains very dangerous against right-handed pitchers and could still be effective as the dominant half of a DH platoon in the American League. Even at 41, the guy is a mortal lock for 10-plus home runs if he gets 300 plate appearances against righties. He's still patient at the plate and still draws walks - an asset for a pinch-hitter, despite what conventional wisdom might say.
From my count, the Phillies are better at three of the five bench spots and better on the bench overall.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Roster Move: Marlon Anderson Released
Thank God.
It was absolutely the right move to make, but you always wonder when it comes to the Mets making the right move. Anderson had no specific role on this team and will probably end up in Buffalo - I can't see why any major league team would want to add him to their squad.
These days, with the over-specialization of bullpens, major league teams simply do not have room on the roster to carry a designated pinch hitter. That's what Anderson is at this point in his career - he can't play the field and he can't run, so he doesn't belong on the bench. Anderson simply does not hit enough to regularly play a corner outfield position, so he is basically out of places to play. At this point, the only fit I see for him is with a bad American League team that could use a DH.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Livan Hernandez
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Darren O'Day
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
It was absolutely the right move to make, but you always wonder when it comes to the Mets making the right move. Anderson had no specific role on this team and will probably end up in Buffalo - I can't see why any major league team would want to add him to their squad.
These days, with the over-specialization of bullpens, major league teams simply do not have room on the roster to carry a designated pinch hitter. That's what Anderson is at this point in his career - he can't play the field and he can't run, so he doesn't belong on the bench. Anderson simply does not hit enough to regularly play a corner outfield position, so he is basically out of places to play. At this point, the only fit I see for him is with a bad American League team that could use a DH.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Livan Hernandez
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Darren O'Day
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Know the Enemy: Florida Marlins
It's way too early to make serious predictions, but the Marlins look like they will be a contender in the National League East this season. They won the weekend series against the Mets with a dominant pitching performance from Josh Johnson - I'm already regretting dropping Johnson from one of my fantasy baseball teams before the season started!
The starting rotation might end up being among the best in baseball - all five starters are young and all five starters have the potential to be very good. Johnson has looked the sharpest early on, but Ricky Nolasco had a fine season last year and Anibal Sanchez might finally be back from arm surgery that temporarily derailed a once-promising career in 2007. Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller don't have a lot on their resume yet, but if either one lives up to potential than the Marlins can lay claim to the best rotation in the division.
The bullpen is still an adventure and the lineup is a little light once you get past Cameron Maybin, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but good starting pitching will keep your team in every game. I can see this team picking up 85 to 90 wins in 2009 - right around the same total that I see for the Mets.
The starting rotation might end up being among the best in baseball - all five starters are young and all five starters have the potential to be very good. Johnson has looked the sharpest early on, but Ricky Nolasco had a fine season last year and Anibal Sanchez might finally be back from arm surgery that temporarily derailed a once-promising career in 2007. Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller don't have a lot on their resume yet, but if either one lives up to potential than the Marlins can lay claim to the best rotation in the division.
The bullpen is still an adventure and the lineup is a little light once you get past Cameron Maybin, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, but good starting pitching will keep your team in every game. I can see this team picking up 85 to 90 wins in 2009 - right around the same total that I see for the Mets.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Hell Freezes Over
For one night, Livan Hernandez made a monkey out of me.
I have no insight to share, no analysis to offer. Somehow, and without any explanation that I can conjure up, Livan Hernandez found a way to dominate a major league baseball lineup. Good for him. One turn through the rotation and the best start came from the Mets' fifth starter - baseball is a funny game sometimes.
In other news, Luis Castillo had a break-out night, with four hits in four official at-bats. Why do you bat Luis Castillo eighth? Here's why:
New York - Top of Third
- L Castillo singled to center.
- L Hernandez sacrificed to pitcher, L Castillo to second.
New York - Top of Fifth
- L Castillo singled to left.
- L Hernandez sacrificed to pitcher, L Castillo to second.
New York - Top of Sixth
- L Castillo singled to right center, R Church scored.
- L Hernandez sacrificed to pitcher, L Castillo to second.
Livan Hernandez happens to be a good hitting pitcher, but that only means he sports a career line of .233/.241/.313. You don't want pitchers to have to bat for themselves whenever possible. If you can get a #8 hitter who will get on base, but will rarely get beyond first base on his own, you have the option of making the pitcher's at-bat useful for something more than a laugh.
I have no insight to share, no analysis to offer. Somehow, and without any explanation that I can conjure up, Livan Hernandez found a way to dominate a major league baseball lineup. Good for him. One turn through the rotation and the best start came from the Mets' fifth starter - baseball is a funny game sometimes.
In other news, Luis Castillo had a break-out night, with four hits in four official at-bats. Why do you bat Luis Castillo eighth? Here's why:
New York - Top of Third
- L Castillo singled to center.
- L Hernandez sacrificed to pitcher, L Castillo to second.
New York - Top of Fifth
- L Castillo singled to left.
- L Hernandez sacrificed to pitcher, L Castillo to second.
New York - Top of Sixth
- L Castillo singled to right center, R Church scored.
- L Hernandez sacrificed to pitcher, L Castillo to second.
Livan Hernandez happens to be a good hitting pitcher, but that only means he sports a career line of .233/.241/.313. You don't want pitchers to have to bat for themselves whenever possible. If you can get a #8 hitter who will get on base, but will rarely get beyond first base on his own, you have the option of making the pitcher's at-bat useful for something more than a laugh.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Babying Starters
I'm stealing from the great Joe Posnanski here (and Joe probably stole it from someone else!) but let's play a game and compare two pitchers for a moment:
Pitcher A: 33 years old, 6' 2" and 220 pounds (a generous underestimation of weight)
Pitcher B: 37 years old, 5'11" and 170 pounds
Pitcher A: has made 30 or more starts in each the last 10 years
Pitcher B: has made 30 or more starts three times in the last 10 years
Pitcher A: pitched "just" 180 innings in 2008, his lowest total since his rookie year in 1997
Pitcher B: has not pitched that many innings since back-to-back 217-inning campaigns in 2004 and 2005
Pitcher A: has topped the 200-inning mark in every year of this decade except 2008
Pitcher B: has topped the 200-inning mark twice in this decade
Have you figured out who we're talking about yet? Player A is Livan Hernandez, who takes the mound tonight for the Mets. Player B is Pedro Martinez, who is still waiting for the economy to rebound so someone will pay him what he thinks he's worth.
What this little exercise was meant to show is that, throughout their respective careers, Hernandez has been far more durable than Martinez. Pedro has been infinitely more successful, of course; Livan doesn't even belong in the same conversation if you're talking about career accomplishments. Perhaps the only thing Hernandez does better than Martinez, however, is to pitch deeper into games and to make more starts per season.
Why then, would Jerry Manuel publically commit to expecting the same workload from Hernandez as he did from Martinez last season? From the article:
"Jerry Manuel plans to treat Hernandez as he did Pedro Martinez. Namely, be thankful if the veteran pitcher can successfully navigate the opposing lineup two or three times, then get him out after five or six innings."
If there's one thing you do not need to do with Livan Hernandez, it is protect his arm. If Hernandez somehow manages to successfully navigate the opposing lineup two or three times tonight, then Manuel would be insane to take him out before he shows any signs of fatigue. The only thing Livan does well is eat up innings - why on earth would you put a cap on that?
If anything, the Mets should be praying for seven innings out of Livan tonight, considering the way that the bullpen has been overworked so far. (Oh, and is it too early to start calling the "new-look" bullpen The Arson Squad again?)
Pitcher A: 33 years old, 6' 2" and 220 pounds (a generous underestimation of weight)
Pitcher B: 37 years old, 5'11" and 170 pounds
Pitcher A: has made 30 or more starts in each the last 10 years
Pitcher B: has made 30 or more starts three times in the last 10 years
Pitcher A: pitched "just" 180 innings in 2008, his lowest total since his rookie year in 1997
Pitcher B: has not pitched that many innings since back-to-back 217-inning campaigns in 2004 and 2005
Pitcher A: has topped the 200-inning mark in every year of this decade except 2008
Pitcher B: has topped the 200-inning mark twice in this decade
Have you figured out who we're talking about yet? Player A is Livan Hernandez, who takes the mound tonight for the Mets. Player B is Pedro Martinez, who is still waiting for the economy to rebound so someone will pay him what he thinks he's worth.
What this little exercise was meant to show is that, throughout their respective careers, Hernandez has been far more durable than Martinez. Pedro has been infinitely more successful, of course; Livan doesn't even belong in the same conversation if you're talking about career accomplishments. Perhaps the only thing Hernandez does better than Martinez, however, is to pitch deeper into games and to make more starts per season.
Why then, would Jerry Manuel publically commit to expecting the same workload from Hernandez as he did from Martinez last season? From the article:
"Jerry Manuel plans to treat Hernandez as he did Pedro Martinez. Namely, be thankful if the veteran pitcher can successfully navigate the opposing lineup two or three times, then get him out after five or six innings."
If there's one thing you do not need to do with Livan Hernandez, it is protect his arm. If Hernandez somehow manages to successfully navigate the opposing lineup two or three times tonight, then Manuel would be insane to take him out before he shows any signs of fatigue. The only thing Livan does well is eat up innings - why on earth would you put a cap on that?
If anything, the Mets should be praying for seven innings out of Livan tonight, considering the way that the bullpen has been overworked so far. (Oh, and is it too early to start calling the "new-look" bullpen The Arson Squad again?)
Friday, April 10, 2009
Marlon's Swan Song
Jeremy Reed just ended Marlon Anderson's Mets career.
It's not official yet, but someone has to go to make room for fifth starter Livan Hernandez, who gets the ball on Saturday evening. Reed's ninth-inning game-tying single off Matt Lindstrom has to be enough to convince Jerry Manuel that he can send players other than Anderson up to pinch-hit and get positive results.
Anderson's ostensible value to the Mets was as the primary left-handed handed pinch-hitter - a role he has not played well since a 70 at-bat run with the Mets in 2007. Omar Minaya handed Anderson a two-year contract that off-season; I've actually run out of ways to call the decision a stupid.
Now, 24 players on the Mets roster have a specific role - the other guy is Marlon Anderson. Gary Sheffield's signing means that one aging vet will be replacing another, but Sheffield is a better fit for the Mets than Anderson is.
It's not official yet, but someone has to go to make room for fifth starter Livan Hernandez, who gets the ball on Saturday evening. Reed's ninth-inning game-tying single off Matt Lindstrom has to be enough to convince Jerry Manuel that he can send players other than Anderson up to pinch-hit and get positive results.
Anderson's ostensible value to the Mets was as the primary left-handed handed pinch-hitter - a role he has not played well since a 70 at-bat run with the Mets in 2007. Omar Minaya handed Anderson a two-year contract that off-season; I've actually run out of ways to call the decision a stupid.
Now, 24 players on the Mets roster have a specific role - the other guy is Marlon Anderson. Gary Sheffield's signing means that one aging vet will be replacing another, but Sheffield is a better fit for the Mets than Anderson is.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
2009 Opening Day Roster
My loyal readers know how much I enjoy roster analysis, so even though we are already one game into the season I wanted to take a minute to talk about the team that the Mets broke camp with.
For the most part, it is a surprisingly well-constructed roster to start the season. I would've liked to have seen a second left-hander in the bullpen instead of Bobby Parnell, who I simply do not believe in yet. That said, if it makes Jerry Manuel more likely to simply rely on his best relievers and less likely to become obsessed with platoon matchups, I think it's worth considering for now.
I liked the Gary Sheffield signing as a low-risk investment, but the key will be how Omar Minaya makes room for Livan Hernandez, who will be the fifth starter and will take the mound on Saturday. Minaya absolutely must release Marlon Anderson for this signing to make any sense at all. Anderson has no place on this team - he can't hit, he can't field and he can't run. Modern teams simply do not have room for Manny Mota-type pinch hitters, and Marlon Anderson is no Manny Mota.
Pitching is still a question mark, in my opinion. Johan Santana will be an ace, but can anyone say with confidence that Mike Pelfrey will not regress, that Oliver Perez and John Maine won't remain inconsistent and that Hernandez will not be awful? I can't - and the Mets will not survive in the National League unless three of those four live up to expectations.
The bullpen seems to be built entirely and hopes and dreams. If Francisco Rodriguez's decreasing strikeout rate and increasing WHIP isn't a sign of trouble ... if JJ Putz is fully healed from last season's injury and rediscovers past success ... if Sean Green and Brian Stokes learn how to get out left-handers ... if Pedro Feliciano remembers how to get out right-handers ... if Parnell out-performs every expectation that his entire minor-league track record would give you ... if Darren O'Day's rotator cuff doesn't completely tear ...
If all of these go right, you have a 100-win team. If they all go wrong, you have an 80-win team. I'm predicting an 87-75 record, which should indicate my confidence in the bullpen right now.
There are fewer questions among the position players. David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes will hit, because that's what they do. I think that Daniel Murphy will too, although I think he's more Rusty Greer and less Don Mattingly or Wade Boggs (two players I heard him compared to this week). Either Ryan Church or Luis Castillo will put up good numbers - and if they both do this lineup has the chance to be very potent.
The key is Carlos Delgado. I just don't see another 38 home runs from that aging bat, but the Mets don't need that to succeed. They need .265/.350/.470 and 25 to 30 home runs to be successful - and they need Delgado to be consistent for six months. Another season where he's clueless at the plate until July 1 will be disastrous.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Darren O'Day
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Marlon Anderson
For the most part, it is a surprisingly well-constructed roster to start the season. I would've liked to have seen a second left-hander in the bullpen instead of Bobby Parnell, who I simply do not believe in yet. That said, if it makes Jerry Manuel more likely to simply rely on his best relievers and less likely to become obsessed with platoon matchups, I think it's worth considering for now.
I liked the Gary Sheffield signing as a low-risk investment, but the key will be how Omar Minaya makes room for Livan Hernandez, who will be the fifth starter and will take the mound on Saturday. Minaya absolutely must release Marlon Anderson for this signing to make any sense at all. Anderson has no place on this team - he can't hit, he can't field and he can't run. Modern teams simply do not have room for Manny Mota-type pinch hitters, and Marlon Anderson is no Manny Mota.
Pitching is still a question mark, in my opinion. Johan Santana will be an ace, but can anyone say with confidence that Mike Pelfrey will not regress, that Oliver Perez and John Maine won't remain inconsistent and that Hernandez will not be awful? I can't - and the Mets will not survive in the National League unless three of those four live up to expectations.
The bullpen seems to be built entirely and hopes and dreams. If Francisco Rodriguez's decreasing strikeout rate and increasing WHIP isn't a sign of trouble ... if JJ Putz is fully healed from last season's injury and rediscovers past success ... if Sean Green and Brian Stokes learn how to get out left-handers ... if Pedro Feliciano remembers how to get out right-handers ... if Parnell out-performs every expectation that his entire minor-league track record would give you ... if Darren O'Day's rotator cuff doesn't completely tear ...
If all of these go right, you have a 100-win team. If they all go wrong, you have an 80-win team. I'm predicting an 87-75 record, which should indicate my confidence in the bullpen right now.
There are fewer questions among the position players. David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes will hit, because that's what they do. I think that Daniel Murphy will too, although I think he's more Rusty Greer and less Don Mattingly or Wade Boggs (two players I heard him compared to this week). Either Ryan Church or Luis Castillo will put up good numbers - and if they both do this lineup has the chance to be very potent.
The key is Carlos Delgado. I just don't see another 38 home runs from that aging bat, but the Mets don't need that to succeed. They need .265/.350/.470 and 25 to 30 home runs to be successful - and they need Delgado to be consistent for six months. Another season where he's clueless at the plate until July 1 will be disastrous.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Darren O'Day
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Marlon Anderson
How Long Will Livan Last? (Flushing University)
Livan Hernandez won the competition for the fifth-starter job with the Mets this season. How long will he be able to hold onto his spot in the rotation? Read more here ...
Thursday, April 2, 2009
More on Thinking Outside the Box
It has to be said: Jerry Manuel wouldn't have needed to juggle the Mets' everyday lineup had his general manager provided him with a right-handed bat in the outfield, at second base or even behind the plate during the off-season.
Omar Minaya chose not to do that and instead left it to Manuel to fashion a lineup that wouldn't be completely exposed by left-handed starters and lefty specialists in late innings. The problem would've ideally been resolved by simply adding another right-handed position player; once that wasn't going to happen, it was up to the manager to resolve the problem.
Had Manuel chosen to abide by conventional wisdom (as his predecessors Art Howe and Willie Randolph were more likely to have done), the batting order would've had Luis Castillo second and some combination of Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Brian Schneider batting fifth through eighth. Randolph especially was fond of letting young players work their way up through the lineup (see David Wright's usage in 2005) and therefore would've been extremely unlikely to bat Murphy second.
Fastballs are generally considered the best pitch for hitters to drive, because they are not as reliant on break or movement as any other pitch to be successful. Whoever bats second in the Mets' lineup will see a lot of fastballs, with a dangerous base-stealer like Jose Reyes in front and an elite hitter like David Wright on deck.
In my opinion, rookie players still adjusting to big-league breaking balls will generally benefit from batting second early in their career, since pitchers can't always get away with feeding them a steady number of breaking balls. Batting Murphy second affords him more fastballs, which should presumably earn him more hits and will hopefully increase his confidence. Castillo may have benefitted from this type of protection as well, but he surely did not last season. Besides, Castillo's inability to hit the ball over an outfielder's head makes him ill-suited to bat so high in the order.
I happen to believe in the concept of lineup protection, although like God I cannot prove its existence. I know that other people do not believe in it, but (like athiests) I'm not confident in the methodology they've used to draw their conclusions either.
Omar Minaya chose not to do that and instead left it to Manuel to fashion a lineup that wouldn't be completely exposed by left-handed starters and lefty specialists in late innings. The problem would've ideally been resolved by simply adding another right-handed position player; once that wasn't going to happen, it was up to the manager to resolve the problem.
Had Manuel chosen to abide by conventional wisdom (as his predecessors Art Howe and Willie Randolph were more likely to have done), the batting order would've had Luis Castillo second and some combination of Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Brian Schneider batting fifth through eighth. Randolph especially was fond of letting young players work their way up through the lineup (see David Wright's usage in 2005) and therefore would've been extremely unlikely to bat Murphy second.
Fastballs are generally considered the best pitch for hitters to drive, because they are not as reliant on break or movement as any other pitch to be successful. Whoever bats second in the Mets' lineup will see a lot of fastballs, with a dangerous base-stealer like Jose Reyes in front and an elite hitter like David Wright on deck.
In my opinion, rookie players still adjusting to big-league breaking balls will generally benefit from batting second early in their career, since pitchers can't always get away with feeding them a steady number of breaking balls. Batting Murphy second affords him more fastballs, which should presumably earn him more hits and will hopefully increase his confidence. Castillo may have benefitted from this type of protection as well, but he surely did not last season. Besides, Castillo's inability to hit the ball over an outfielder's head makes him ill-suited to bat so high in the order.
I happen to believe in the concept of lineup protection, although like God I cannot prove its existence. I know that other people do not believe in it, but (like athiests) I'm not confident in the methodology they've used to draw their conclusions either.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Thinking Outside the Box (Flushing University)
Jerry Manuel has brought a unique approach to constructing an everyday lineup in his first full season managing in New York. In doing so, he has neutralized one of the biggest concerns facing the Mets in 2009. Read more here ...
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