You Know It Don't Come Easy

The lead is the half the size it was at this time last year, but a 3.5-game cushion with 17 games to go still feels pretty good.

The Mets swept the two-game series with the Nationals tonight, by outscoring a Nationals' attack that's suddenly firing on all cylinders. Anyone who thought the Nationals were going to be pushovers because they're in last place haven't been paying attention. The offense is almost completely healthy, for one, and ended up scoring 18 runs in the abbreviated series with the Mets. Cristian Guzman-Ryan Zimmerman-Lastings Milledge-Elijah Dukes is nobody's idea of a juggernaut, but the men in the middle of the Nats' lineup have all had solid second halves of the season. Since the All-Star Break:

Guzman: .307/.346/.457
Zimmerman: .321/.386/.473
Milledge: .286/.352/.472
Dukes: .296/.406/.630

Luckily for Mets fans, New York simply has a deeper and more talented lineup and are a vastly superior defensive team. David Wright broke out of his short slump in a big way during this series, with six hits in the last two games, and suddenly appears to be locked in at the plate again. The Phenom has taken a step back from his 2007 numbers, but a big playoff series or two will re-establish him as one of the five best players in baseball. If it wasn't for Wright, the results of the last two games might have been wild Washington wins, and Phillies fans wouldn't be wondering tonight if their luck has run out.

So the Mets are surging and the Phillies are stumbling, even though the pitching performances from the last two nights are causes for concern. There was a lot of sarcasm directed Oliver Perez's way after last night's stinker, with the recurring theme being that his perceived free agent demands will need some readjusting. After the way the Nats smacked around Mike Pelfrey tonight, though, some people might owe Ollie an apology.

Aaron Heilman, though, that's another story. Heilman's Met career certainly seems to be drawing to a close; he is so unpopular with the fan base right now that he is veering dangerously close to Doug Sisk territory. It's not entirely fair - Heilman gave the Mets three excellent seasons in middle relief going into this year - but he has been so consistently ineffective this season that it's hard to justify giving him a baseball at a meaningful point in a game again this season.

Labor Day Stuff

I'm on my way up to Rockland County to celebrate the last day of summer - hopefully you all are doing something to enjoy the long weekend. Just a couple of quick hits from articles I read this morning, with comment:

Dugout Central posted a speculative look at which numbers MLB teams are going to retire next. I was unimpressed with the Mets' list. From the blog:

• Dwight Gooden (16)

Both “Doc” and Darryl Strawberry are very tough calls. Both were gifted players who would have been better except for their self-destructive behavior. If either gets honored, I’d go with Gooden first.

I'm still beating the "retire Mike Piazza's number" drum, but I am on the fence about Gooden. He spent over a decade with the Mets, but injuries and drug use tarnished his career. No pitcher was more electric in 1984 and 1985, but something changed in 1986. I've read that then-pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre changed Gooden's approach to focus more on contact and less on strikeouts. His K/9 rate never dropped as significantly as people tend to believe, but Gooden's aura of dominance was never the same. There was an ERA spike in the 1990 season that never came back to 1980's levels and he nearly washed out after the 1994 season, when his ongoing drug use caused baseball to ban Gooden for the 1995 season.

All that said, I have to admit that every time a Met is given #16, my first thought is, "that's Dr. K's number." If he cleans himself up and increases his profile over the next few years, I could see the justification for retiring the number.

Meanwhile, Cody Ross refuses to shut up and act like a man, still whining about getting plunked by Mike Pelfrey on Saturday. Ross made a fool of himself by throwing a temper tantrum between home and first and causing both benches to empty - sound and fury signifying nothing. Pelfrey was mostly amused by the incident and said as much after the game, which is only making little Cody angrier. From the article:

Pelfrey said he did Ross a favor by hitting him with a 2-2 pitch. He also accused him of fake charging the mound Aug. 10, when he hit Ross between the shoulder blades with a fastball after giving up a two-run double in the fifth for a 6-1 deficit.

"I didn't fake charge," Ross said. "He hit me, on purpose, and I jumped up and ran to first. I didn't take any steps toward the mound. I jumped up and ran to first. I never looked at him.

"Apparently he can't control his sinker. He has no idea where it's going. If he wants to pop off, I'll let him pop off. I figure you would do that if you were 3-0 against a team and not 0-3, but it is what it is."

Cody Ross = tough guy! Look, batters sometimes get hit by pitches in baseball. Pelfrey has hit Ross twice this season and both times the game situation made it clear that it was unintentional. He acted like a fool on Saturday night and still hasn't shown enough grace and common sense to shut up and let the whole silly episode blow over. I know Ross used to pal around with rodeo clowns, but the time for being a clown is over. You're a baseball player now, Cody - try to act like one.

Now We're Worrying About Innings Pitched Caps?

I saw Ken Davidoff's column on Mike Pelfrey's complete game today, and he asks the same question that I asked The Franchise while we were eating dinner at Sandro's last night - why is Pelfrey still pitching in a game that the Mets salted away in the bottom of the seventh inning?

Mind you, I wasn't necessarily saying Pelfrey needed to be removed. He was well under 100 pitches as the eighth inning began (he finished the game with 108), so the Pitch Counters couldn't have been too concerned. You know that I like complete games and I'm not a big believer in the theory that the 100-pitch "limit" is a one-size-fits-all approach to managing pitcher fatigue.

Davidoff's focus was on something I mentioned last night - that Pelfrey was on pace to blow past the 183 inning cap that some people believe is necessary for a young pitcher's development. From the article:

Pelfrey, who did dominate the Astros, has now pitched 163 innings this season, after totaling 152 2/3 last year in the minors and majors. Most teams now adhere to the notion that a young pitcher shouldn't exceed his previous year's innings total by more than 30. With 30 games left, Pelfrey's turn is set to come up six more times, which means he's on pace to blow by the recommended 182 2/3 innings. And that's even before we count the postseason. To this, the Mets are essentially saying, "Fuhgeddaboutit."

Ken, you said it yourself - teams adhere to a "notion" that a young pitcher shouldn't exceed his innings pitched total by more than 30 from the previous year. There is absolutely no evidence that this notion is actually effective in preventing pitcher injuries - or even reducing the likelihood than an injury might take place. In an age where we monitor pitch counts and now we monitor innings pitched from the year before, pitchers still seem to find a way to blow out their arms. Perhaps these "notions" should be sent back to the trash bin and new theories for preventing pitcher injuries should be explored.

Pelfrey Keeps Rolling Along

Is there anything more exciting than a Mike Pelfrey start these days? The big right-hander is 11-6 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.246 WHIP in the 21 starts since this column appeared. There's a reason why I don't get paid for what I do.

Pelfrey's emergence into a frontline starter has been the most exciting development of the 2008 season and one that bodes very well for the Mets' future. With John Maine on the shelf, possibly for the rest of the season, the Mets will be need Pelfrey to continue these dominating performances if they have any hopes of winning the National League East. (More on the Maine injury in the Roster Move post I'll be making tomorrow.)

Pelfrey is up to 163 innings now, after having thrown 152 2/3 innings across three different levels in 2007. There is a school of thought today that young starting pitchers should avoid adding more than 30 innings to their innings pitched total from the previous season, or else their risk for an arm injury increases. As far as I can tell, there is only anecdotal evidence that this practice actually reduces a starter's injury risk (has anyone seen a study that shows a statistical correlation?). However, Pelfrey's two straight complete games certainly suggests that the Mets are skeptical that this theory holds water.