Slip Sliding Away

Three hours until the trade deadline. I stil don't think anything is going to happen. Two brief comments on Mets-related content from Jon Heyman's deadline blog today:

10:58am: Competing GMs say the Mets' Omar Minaya is "itching'' to do a deal. And it's no wonder with the Yankees stealing the show across town and the competing Marlins close to possibly adding superstar Manny Ramirez. However, a lot of Mets people want to hold onto their top prospects, including outfielder Fernando Martinez, and pitchers Jon Niese, Eddie Kunz and Robert Parnell. Seattle requested "two premium prospects'' for outfielder Raul Ibanez, and Mets people don't like that idea. Minaya is spending more time on the relief situation, which is looking iffy lately, especially with Duaner Sanchez's radar gun readings down.

This will make Angst/Joey Walnuts happy, but it makes me nervous. Minaya strikes me as the type of general manager who will make a trade just for the sake of doing so, which almost never works out well. Oh, and Seattle is crazy if they think anyone is trading two premium prospects for Raul Ibanez. If the Mariners wanted to trade Ibanez for Eddie Kunz and Bobby Parnell, I would be fine with that, since I have no faith whatsoever in those guys. They aren't premium rospects and the idea that Kunz and Parnell are anything other than cannon fodder at the major league level is pie in the sky dreaming.

9 am: One bullpen option the Mets have kicked around is to try to pry disappointing starter Ian Snell from Pittsburgh with the idea of employing him as a reliever for the remainder of the year. Snell could then be used in the rotation next year when the Mets may need starters. Pedro Martinez likely won't be back and Oliver Perez could leave as a free agent. The Mets are continuing to make left-hander Jon Niese unavailable because they'd like to see him make the rotation next year.

I like that idea a lot. Ian Snell has talent and is a tough customer who hates losing. He could be rejuvenated playing for a franchise that actually gives a damn about winning. If the Pirates were dumb enough to take a C prospect for Snell - and God knows the last 15 years have proven that they are - the Mets would have to jump all over that.

UPDATE: 1:49 pm: The Mets are talking to the Nationals about a deal for reliever Luis Ayala, SI.com has learned. Mets GM Omar Minaya badly wants a reliever and wouldn't mind making a deal. This could be it.

Minaya has a good working relationship with Jim Bowden, so this wouldn't be surprising. Luis Ayala isn't very good; even when he's going well he gives up more than a hit per inning and has a low strikeout rate. He is strictly bullpen filler, so hopefully Minaya won't offer anything more than a marginal prospect for his services.

UPDATE: No deals done. I wouldn't be surprised if the Mets continue to pursue Ayala; I don't imagine he'll have much trouble passing through waivers.

What You See is What You Get (Flushing University)

Don't spend too much time conjuring up trade scenarios for the Mets. None of these deals are likely to get done, because the rest of baseball doesn't want what the Mets are offering. Read more here ...

The Trade Deadline Approaches ...

Fans love the trade deadline. Every team within 10 games of first place deludes themselves into believing they are a potential playoff team and find themselves acting accordingly on the trade market. It's all very exciting, because fans naturally like to believe that their favorite team is just one or two players away from a league pennant. The reality, of course, is that most of these teams are fooling themselves and are only hurting their chances at future success by not committing to a long-term improvement plan.

This is not the case for the Mets, who play in a relatively weak division in a relatively weak league. When you're in first place after nearly 110 games, it's a sign that your team is a playoff contender, regardless of how mediocre the National League East might be. The Mets are one of the five best teams in the National League, but they clearly trail the Cubs and the Brewers on that list.

Still, don't expect to see any new players in a Mets uniform before 4 pm tomorrow. The Mets simply don't have any trade chips they're willing to part with, and the 10 0r 15 sellers on the trade market have no obligation to part with their better players at cut-rate prices just to satisfy Mets fans.

The Mets are in their fifth straight year as “buyers,” although they really had no business doing so in 2004 and 2005. Mets’ brass completely misread their team’s fortunes in 2004; despite being three games under .500 and owning the fifth-worst record in the National League, ownership and fanbase alike were seduced by what it perceived to be a slim 6.5-game deficit in the NL East.

(That sounds a lot like what the Rockies are doing right now, which is another reason why there's no reason to believe Brian Fuentes will be wearing a Mets uniform this season.)

Another ignominious chapter in franchise history was the result – the Mets made three trades involving some of their best prospects for players who would not only fail to push the Mets into a playoff berth, but would also end up having undistinguished careers in New York.

The first deal actually didn't turn out so badly, in the long run. The Mets traded Ty Wigginton and two highly regarded prospects to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Wigginton had no place on the team with the emergence of David Wright, but Huber and Peterson were two of the Mets' better prospects and seemed destined for a bright future (think Carlos Gomez and Phil Humber in terms of where each player ranked in the system at the time). Neither panned out, a break for the Mets and typical luck for the Pirates.

Benson, meanwhile, pitched reasonably well for the rest of the 2004 season and was a capable mid-rotation starter in 2005, but he will be best remembered for his wife and the fact that the Orioles eventually gave the Mets John Maine in exchange for Benson's services. Keppinger was never given a chance for New York and was eventually swapped for Ruben Gotay, who was released at the end of Spring Training this year. Keppinger simply hits everywhere he goes and has finally settled in as a valuable utility player for the Cincinnati Reds.

It was, of course, the other deal that resonates to this day. Emerging superstar Scott Kazmir and a nondescript middle reliever was traded to the then-hapless Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano and a nondescript middle reliever. To make matters worse, I remember nearly driving off the road on Yellowstone Boulevard and shrieking in horror at the radio when the trade was announced.

Never before has a trade gone so lopsided so fast, and the Mets were understandably spooked into paralysis at the 2005 trade deadline.

Merengue Night Musings

It's always fun to see the Mets win a game in person, and since the Yankee game last month was such a debacle, last night was the first time this season I sat in the big ballpark from beginning to end. Back in Section 24 of the Upper Deck we were, thanks to the Seven Pack, but I was the only member of the ticket-buying crew to actually show up at Shea. Angst needed a night off after working two straight weeks, Freddie Mercury was probably preparing for the weekend of debauchery in Philadelphia and WJS simply never showed. I grabbed Angst's ticket earlier in the week and offered it to T-Bone, who was happy to accept.

(Oh yeah, no more real names on here, unless specifically requested by that person. Angst will probably ask to be called Joey Walnuts instead, but I won't give him the satisfaction. If I'm going to hide behind my Judge Roughneck moniker, might as well give everyone else a nickname too.)

We got to the park right before first pitch and settled into our seats with a Brooklyn Lager in hand. T-Bone is getting snooty about his beer in his old age and we had to walk halfway around the Upper Deck just to satisfy his alcohol needs. All matter of conversation ensued, so much so that I looked up and it was already the bottom of the second inning. I was pleasantly surprised that the Mets had toned down the white noise from the PA system a little bit last night; the usual noise assault was much more muted. Merengue Night every night, I say!

Sometime around the fifth inning T-Bone and I decided to go back to the Brooklyn Lager stand and ran into The Swedish Chef, who has actually called me earlier that night to see if I wanted to go to the game with him. He was sitting alone, so we offered him one of Freddie Mercury's/WJS's seats and he joined us for the rest of the game. The Administrator texted me to tell me he was in the park too, but never came by to say hello.

The Swedish Chef is not a particularly fervent baseball fan and enjoys going to games more for the spectacle then anything else. Predictably, he is excited about Citi Field and the many food options that will be available to the casual baseball fan. He is also looking to buy his first personalized Mets jersey and offered to buy the black Piazza jersey from me. No dice, my man - but I'm sure you can easily get one personalized at your local sporting goods store.

Other highlights? Pelfrey was super sharp again and T-Bone is so proud of himself for plucking Pelf off the waiver wire of our fantasy league in mid-May. Merengue Night brought a surprising amount of energy to the proceedings; in past years, the park would be half-full into the seventh inning when the Puerto Rican and Dominican flags would suddenly arrive en masse awaiting the postgame concert. Oh, and some day when I'm old and gray(er), I'll be able to tell my kids I saw Argenis Reyes's first career home run.

Manuel's bullpen management in the eighth and ninth innings left something to be desired. Pelfrey couldn't start the eighth with only 103 pitches under his belt? Feliciano couldn't have pitched the last two innings of what was ultimately a blowout? Whatever.

Another postgame trip to the Pines ensued, although T-Bone and I were very close to hitting the links in Flushing Meadows instead. Maybe next time. Angst decided to meet us there and we took over a back booth, yapping the night away while fending off the commercial advances of the Presidente girls. ($20 for a bucket of Presidentes!? Not after having bought a bucket of Yuenglings for $6.75 the night before!)

In Defense of Adam Dunn

Now that one of the corner outfielders the Mets were targeting is off the market, let's turn our gaze to the guy I really want - Adam Dunn.

Yes, I hear the detractors shouting from the rooftops already. Adam Dunn walks too much. He doesn't drive in enough runs. His batting average is too low and his strikeout totals are too high. He's a terrible defensive outfielder, bad to the point of indifference. Some people have gone so far as to call him indifferent to all aspects of the game. The chic comparison is Dave Kingman, whose name is often the one bandied about when attempting to devalue Dunn's offensive prowess.

These are all just talking points that have more to do with taking unwarranted potshots at Adam Dunn then they do with actual baseball analysis. I would argue that calling Dunn "Dave Kingman with more walks" is something like saying Tony Gwynn is "Mitch Webster with more hits." It's a bad comparison that seems to be built on disparaging a good player by saying he is merely better than a not-so-good player.

This strange notion that middle-of-the-order hitters shouldn't walk simply doesn't make any sense to me. Adam Dunn walks so often because National League pitchers are afraid he will hit a home run off them. They pitch around him, because when you challenge Adam Dunn by throwing strikes you are risking the possibility that the baseball will land 450 feet away from home plate.

It seems as though his detractors would prefer that Dunn swings at all these pitches out of the strike zone instead of taking a walk, even though that would lead to more outs and less production. If you don't like his .230 batting average and his 175 strikeouts a year now, what will you to think of his statistics when he's swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone?

Dunn's patience does not clog bases, as it has been suggested; he unclogs them by hitting home runs. Dunn is nowhere near the slowest guy in baseball and he is not a notably bad baserunner either. He steals five to 10 bases a year, which is an eminently reasonable total for a 40-home run hitter. Why is it a bad thing that he creates RBI opportunities for the players behind him when he's not hitting home runs? Should Carlos Delgado (who once went four straight seasons without stealing a base) stop taking walks because is slower than Dunn and less adept at running the bases?

The HR to RBI ratio is a fallacious argument. Dunn's batting average and slugging average with runners in scoring position are .244/.561, both of which are higher than his overall numbers this season (.234 and .547). RBIs, however, are completely dependent on the batter having runners on base to drive in. If the Reds don't put runners on base ahead of Dunn, how on earth can he be expected to drive them in?

Dunn has mostly batted fifth for Cincinnati this season. The on-base percentages for the 1 through 4 hitters in the Reds' lineup this season has been .323/.320/.340/.325. Compare that to the Mets, who have gotten OBPs of .363/.370/.389/.367 from their 1 through 4 hitters. That's an additional 40 to 50 points of on-base percentage at each position, which works out to approximately 80 more baserunners in front of the fifth-place hitter in the lineup. Had Dunn been batting fifth for the Mets all season and put up equal numbers, he would be good for an additional 20 RBIs or so. Would his detractors sneer at 29 home runs and 88 RBIs in 99 games?

(How did I come to that conclusion? Dunn is batting .244 with runners in scoring position, almost exactly one hit every four at-bats. With 80 more RBI opportunities in the form of 80 baserunners, I'm simply assuming he'll convert one-fourth of them into RBIs.)

Adam Dunn is the most under-valued player in baseball. Which GM is going to be smart enough to see past the talking points and add an excellent offensive player to their lineup?

Where's Wagner? (Flushing University)

Life without your closer is no fun, as the Mets proved last night. But whenever Billy Wagner has been left in the bullpen because "conventional wisdom" said he should, the Mets have suffered for it this season. Read more here ...

About Last Night ...

I was busy putting the finishing touches on my Flushing University column last night when the Phillies decided to batter the Mets bullpen and snatch first place right out from under their noses. Of course, the shocking ninth-inning comeback forced me into rewrite stage and didn't give me an opportunity to comment on the debacle.


Luckily for me, loyal reader James Allen perfectly summed up the talking points for last night's game, so I am going to steal from him shamelessly to make my points here.

1) Johan Santana absolutely, positively, unquestionably needs to pitch a complete game last night. However, I put this decision squarely on the manager's shoulders, not Santana's. Jerry Manuel made the biggest mistake of his brief tenure with the Mets last night, and it cost the Mets a game they had no business losing. He has to toss the pitch count garbage out the window in this situation and recognize what was at stake here.

The Mets are paying Johan Santana approximately $150 million over the next seven seasons. He is 29 years old, he had only thrown 105 pitches to that point and he had a three-run lead. It is the height of stupidity to pull him in that situation, ESPECIALLY when your "All-Star" closer has already made it clear he won't be pitching that night. If you don't believe your $22 million ace can get out the 5-6-7 hitters in the Phillies' lineup because he's crossed the mythical 100-pitch bridge, then it's time to pack up shop and go play backgammon, because baseball as we know it is dead.

2) I know that Luis Aguayo has to be thinking that lightning doesn't strike twice, but how can he send Endy Chavez around third in the bottom of the seventh with nobody out and a three-run lead? If Chavez stays put, the Mets have two runners on with nobody out and the 4-5-6 hitters striding to the plate. (And yes, James, Castro should be hitting sixth; someone give Manuel the memo that Castro is already one of the best hitting catchers in the National League.)

Head Scratcher: 7/22/08

Batting seventh for the New York Mets tonight: Marlon Anderson. Batting eighth for the New York Mets tonight: Ramon Castro. A side-by-side comparison going into the game:

Anderson - .205/.242/.286 with one home run in 112 at-bats
Castro - .289/.359/.494 with four home runs in 83 at-bats

Does that make any kind of sense? I thought we left this type of silliness behind when the Mets fired their manager last month.

More on the All Star Game

Trademarq chimed in from Seattle yesterday with these thoughts:

I don't know if anyone has written or commented on the game from this angle, but it seems to me that (Tuesday's) All-Star game was a great representation of baseball in the post-steroid era. Low-scoring, extra innings, stolen bases, sac bunts, sac flies, clutch pitching, defensive gems, minimal home runs (and line drive ones, at that), etc. I hate All-Star games, but that was one of the best fundamental games I've ever witnessed.

Well, poor Dan Uggla aside, I can see where you're coming from. All Star Games typically haven't been the high-scoring affairs that such contests in the other professional leagues usually see, but it would make sense that best and the brightest would engage in a contest that closely represents what the game looks like at that moment.

The stolen bases especially caught my eye - the American League had six swipes on their own. I've always thought stolen bases were as exciting as home runs, if obviously not as productive. They're sort of the baseball fan's guilty pleasure; the food version of "empty calories." Since the American League had only three guys with 20 or more home runs on their roster, it makes sense they would find some alternative ways to score runs. (One more thought that lends credence to your theory - no one in the American League is on pace to hit 40 homers this season.)

Watching the game in extra innings, I have to say there was no point in time where I expected to see a titanic game-winning blast from an American League hitter or a string of extra-base hits from the National League. The pitchers were in control - and as a National League fan I've always thought that's the way it should be. It made for a better game and more entertaining viewing.

Too bad it won't be the Mariners who will be benefiting from the American League's victory this year ...

No Twin Killing Here

I was reading Mets Fever on Tuesday, where Ed Ryan was musing about the possibility of adding Michael Cuddyer to address the Mets' corner outfield needs. I'm not a big fan of Cuddyer; he's having a terrible season in 2008 and only recently migrated to right field on a full-time basis. Cuddyer strikes me as more of a potential platoon partner for Ryan Church, although he has not hit lefties as hard this season as he has throughout the course of his career. He's also in the first year of a 3-year, $24 million contract with a club option in 2011. Verdict: Pass!

What was so amazing to me is that Ed was speculating about Cuddyer based on a Charley Waters column in the St. Paul Pioneer Press this week:

It will be interesting whether the Twins try to package Michael Cuddyer and Livan Hernandez in a trade for a slugging third baseman before the July 31 deadline, saving $20 million in guaranteed money to Cuddyer and $2.5 million to Hernandez ... One problem, though: finding a team willing to take on the salaries. The Twins say they haven't had room for (Francisco) Liriano in the starting rotation.

I guess it would be interesting in the sense to see how quickly a general manager who gave up a slugging third baseman for that package would be fired. Cuddyer is a better player than his 2008 numbers indicate, but his poor start means that the Twins are destined to get a poor return if they trade him while his value is low. Hernandez, meanwhile, is simply the worst starting pitcher in baseball.

He actually got off to a fast start in 2008, winning his first three starts and giving the Twins seven good innings each time out. But in 20 starts overall, Hernandez has a 5.44 ERA - nearly a run and a half higher than the league average - and a 1.624 WHIP. Those numbers rise to a 6.05 ERA and a 1.747 WHIP in the 17 starts made after April 11, which are frighteningly bad numbers.

In case you aren't convinced of Hernandez's awfulness, here's one more stat to consider - opponents are batting .342/.368/.506 against Hernandez in 2008. That's like turning every hitter you face into the 1971 version of this Hall of Famer.

It makes all the sense in the world for the Twins to want to trade Cuddyer and Hernandez, but I can't imagine there's another team in baseball who would want both of them. Certainly not the Mets, who would then be stuck with Cuddyer for two more years and might even make the grave mistake of trying to find room for Hernandez in their rotation. I wouldn't give up Jimmie Feldman for that package of players.

All Star Game Thoughts

* First and foremost, the All Star Game is an exhibition game. It was never meant to have meaning or any tangible effect on the regular season. It was a chance for fans to see the best and brightest on one stage, and a chance to see the National League and American League square off in a time before inter-league play wasn't being rammed down their throats. Every other major sport treats their All Star Game for what is - a spectacle meant to be enjoyed for the sake of the game. The NFL waits until after the season is over to play their game - and they do so in a locale that doesn't even host a team.

This is why I feel so strongly that attaching meaning to an exhibition game for the sake of television ratings is asinine. It's a game played with 32-man rosters, where pitchers are never on the mound longer than two innings at a time and the starting position players are out of the game by the sixth inning. It has only a superficial resemblance to real baseball and to artificially attach meaning where there is none is nothing more than a gimmick that cheapens the integrity of the sport.

* I went out for a few hours last night, after watching the interminably long pre-game ceremony (more on that in a minute). I came back four hours later and the game was still on, since Billy Wagner apparently is no better at locking down exhibition games than he is at regular season games. Since I wasn't working today, I got to do something most people on the East Coast did not - watch the All Star Game all the way to the end.

As the innings dragged on and both managers came perilously close to running out of pitchers, I was struck by the absurdity of the situation. This game was going to continue until there was a winner - the commissioner said as much afterwards. There was Scott Kazmir and Brandon Webb, each having thrown over 100 pitches on Sunday, now on the mound in extra innings of an exhibition game that should've ended hours before.

What would've happened if Corey Hart's throw was on target and the game went to the 16th inning? Well, the National League would've sent its backup third baseman to the mound to try to hold down the fort. So here we are, five hours into the game that now determines where Game 7 of the World Series is played, and a guy who hasn't been on a pitching mound since Little League was the last line of defense for the National League.

I can't tell you how badly I wish David Wright would've trotted out to the mound, surely to the delight of the few people left in the stands. I would've loved to hear Bud Selig explain how his master plan for making the All Star Game relevant was decided by a third baseman masquerading as a pitcher because the National League pulled its real starting pitcher after two innings. (Since, you know, that's what you do IN AN EXHIBITION GAME!!)

I know that Major League Baseball is shameless, but this would've brought a new level of embarrassment to the Commissioner's Office for their spineless kowtowing to network television ratings.

* The pre-game ceremony went on forever, but I thought it was cool to see so many Hall of Famers in one place, lined up on the diamond by position. I loved Gary Carter's hat switcheroo most of all - he initially wore a Mets cap while waiting to be announced, but brought along a Montreal Expos cap as well and put it on while the camera was on him.

What a wonderful way to remind baseball fans that, yes, there was once a baseball team in Montreal. I doubt that Selig could've been pleased, though. The Expos' 35-year history meant nothing to the commissioner and his cronies, and it was only their greed and avarice that cost that city its baseball team. They killed the Montreal Expos so they could move the franchise to a terrible baseball town that had already lost two teams just to get yet another publicly funded ballpark. More people in the Washington area would rather watch DC United then watch the Nationals. It was a shameful episode, even by the pathetic standards of the Selig era, and I'm glad Carter reminded the world that ballplayers were once proud to represent the city of Montreal - a National League outpost that deserved better.

Mid Term Grades (Flushing University)

What kind of university would this be if we didn't give out grades from time to time? Take a look at how the Mets did on their report cards in the first half of the season. Read more here ...

Random Thoughts

* A nine-game winning streak is an impressive feat, no matter who the opponents are. Yes, sweeping the Giants and the Rockies at home aren't a true measure of how good a team truly is, but it's still very encouraging because the Mets haven't shown an ability to dominate inferior teams for over a year now. Anyone would've been satisfied if the Mets had won two out of three in each series and went into the break 49-46. They went one step further in sweeping their NL West foes and deserve extra credit for doing so. The schedule will be tougher after the All-Star Break, but perhaps the newly-found confidence boost will help buoy the Mets through rougher waters.

* Fernando Tatis is having a nice run, but it doesn't mean the Mets shouldn't be pursuing a corner outfielder. Damion Easley is on a hot streak, but that doesn't mean that Luis Castillo is suddenly a forgotten man. Tatis is still a backup corner infielder and Easley is still a backup middle infielder. I hope Jerry Manuel keeps both men in the lineup until they stop producing, then immediately re-cast them in the backup roles each man is destined for.

* I have no answers about why Mike Pelfrey is suddenly pitching so well, other than to say that Rick Peterson's firing had nothing to do it. If Dan Warthen was such a genius, he wouldn't have already been fired by three other teams. As far as I can tell Pelfrey has simply excelled at keeping the ball down; I don't know if it's a mechanical adjustment or a confidence boost, but it sure doesn't seem to be any particular pitch that's doing the trick. Pelfrey still needs to develop an out pitch against lefties to have sustained success, but it's hard not to be excited by his recent success.

* Oldtimers love to wax poetic about how the game has changed since they played. Goose Gossage is one of the worst offenders in this respect; Gossage acts like he was some type of Iron Man who pitched three innings a day, every day, with the bases loaded and nobody out to start every inning. And yes, Gossage did have a lot of multi-inning saves - 125 of which went two or more innings.

Mariano Rivera is undoubtedly more specialized, but that's the fault of his managers and the foolish direction that reliever usage has gone. Tony LaRussa made a smart move to deploy Dennis Eckersley in the way that he did hen managing the late 1980s Oakland A's, to save Eckersley's arm and preserve maximum effectiveness. The rest of the league somehow missed the memo that these were specifically "Eckersley Rules," created because of a vulnerability in one individual, and decided to deploy their closer the same way. I think the current deployment of closers is the dumbest intentional misuse of a player in all of baseball.

Rivera has had only 11 saves of two or more innings in his career (not including the 12 he had in the playoffs). The game has changed, which is why Mariano doesn't pitch more innings, but for my money he is still the best reliever to ever play the game. By the way, one of my pet peeves is when fans espouse the importance of the closer by pointing to Rivera's effect on the Yankee championship teams in the late 1990s. How foolish - Mariano Rivera was merely the greatest and most dominant post-season pitcher in baseball history. No one will come along in our lifetimes that will ever compare. Unless Mariano Rivera is your closer, it is simply asinine to even deploy your best reliever in such an overly specialized role, let alone paying him $10 million a year to do so.

Roster Move: Aguila DFA Again, Cancel Back Again

Why?

Oh, and Moises Alou ain't coming back. Free Valentino Pascucci!!

EDIT: Somehow I missed this, but Tony Armas is on the disabled list and Carlos Muniz is back again. I was all sorts of confused when I heard on the radio this afternoon that Muniz was pitching in relief of Pedro.

Let's take a look at the active roster now:

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
John Maine
Pedro Martinez
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez - DL

RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Joe Smith
Carlos Muniz
Tony Armas - DL
Matt Wise - DL

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Damion Easley
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Fernando Tatis
Argenis Reyes
Luis Castillo-DL

OUTFIELDERS
Endy Chavez
Carlos Beltran
Nick Evans
Marlon Anderson
Ryan Church - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Trot Nixon - DL

Trade Targets, Part 2: Corner Outfield Edition

OK, I'm back. Sometimes my job interferes with the real world. This will be a little anti-climactic, but the only players we thought fit the bill were Raul Ibanez and Brian Giles.

Ibanez is in the final year of his deal and at 36, might not be in the Mariners' future plans. It's a lost season in the Pacific Northwest, so the Mariners have no reason to hold onto him. That said, Ibanez has been a reliable performer for many years - he's generally good for 20-25 home runs and a line in the range of .285/.350/.460. Plenty of teams would take that for a corner outfielder, so the likelihood of the Mets being outbid for Ibanez seems high.

Giles has a $9 million option for next season that can be bought out for $3 million, so the Padres may be willing to let him go for less in return, just as long as they get out from under that option. Giles is having a bit of the renaissance year, but still hits for power like Luis Castillo on steroids. Oops, probably shouldn't mention "steroids" and "Brian Giles" in the same sentence; someone might ask questions about his home runs from 1999 to 2002.

Giles has mostly been a rightfielder since 2004, so he would be taking Ryan Church's spot if Church's concussion woes linger. Otherwise, I'd have to believe he's adept enough to go play left when Moises Alou isn't available (read: the rest of the season). I'm embarrassed to admit that I don't quite understand Zone Rating and don't know where to find the stat listed, so I can't tell you much about Giles's range in the outfield. Any suggestions where I could go for a primer?

Trade Targets, Part 1: Corner Outfield Edition

I had a conversation with Joe about the Rich Harden trade last night, which in my mind is just a fascinating situation. Talk about a risk/reward situation - the Cubs either got themselves a Cy Young candidate a la Rick Sutcliffe in 1984, or they just paid nearly $10 million and four prospects for a career-ending injury waiting to happen.

Harden is a devastatingly good pitcher when healthy; I'm not sure there's a better pitcher in all of baseball when everything is right with him. Of course, everything is rarely right with Harden, which may explain why Oakland GM Billy Beane was willing to trade him with the A's eight games over .500 and trailing the Angels by only five games in the American League West.

Anyway, I was disappointed that the Mets were never able to pry Matt Murton away from the Cubs to help with their corner outfield woes. Murton was part of the six-player deal, mainly because somewhere along the line the Cubs decided that he wasn't a major league outfielder. His track record certainly doesn't suggest that and I have a feeling Murton will look mighty good in the green and gold of the A's before the season is out.

Joe, of course, is expecting an immediate counter-strike by Omar Minaya. He wants a corner outfielder and he wants one 90 seconds ago, even though the Mets have very little to offer in return for someone decent. (Joe is willing to make a challenge trade and use Aaron Heilman as bait - what a surprise, a Mets fan who thinks Aaron Heilman is good trade bait! - but I have no reason to believe the Mets will subtract from the major league roster to go after another bat.)

After some back-and-forth, a few basic criteria for trade targets were established. The only realistic possibilities were players currently on a team that is going nowhere in 2008. They must be performing well, but not playing at such a high level that it would take at least one good prospect to acquire him. Finally, the player should be a veteran without a burdensome contract that is no guarantee to be re-signed by his current team next season.

Shockingly enough, that didn't leave a lot of possibilities.

Back in a few hours with Part 2 ...

Roster Move: Church Put on 15-Day DL Again

You know that I was a vocal opponent of the Lastings Milledge trade from the beginning and his poor play this season has done nothing to change my opinion. I admit that I really expected to see .280/.360/.450 with 20 home runs from Milledge this season, so I have to man up and admit that I was wrong there. Nevertheless, I am still convinced that Milledge is a star in the making - even if that means he will fully arrive in 2009 instead of right now.

The trade looked like a huge win for the Mets early in the season, when Ryan Church was tattooing the National League and Brian Schneider looked reasonably competent with the bat. That has all changed. Church is back on the DL and Schneider has regressed to his level of incompetence at the plate. I always thought the trade was doomed from the start, but I never thought that Church would be felled in such a fashion.

I can't fault the Mets for their handling on this one - Church was out for a month, came back and seemed to feel fine, until the headaches came back. Concussions are like that. Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays has been out even longer with post-concussion symptoms and there's no timetable for his return. Sadly, I suspect we'll be hearing those words used about Ryan Church soon.

Nick Evans is back again, presumably to fail as miserably as he did in his first stint with the Mets. No knock on Evans, who may have a future with this club, but he simply is not a major leaguer yet. Better him then Marlon Anderson, I suppose. I think I'm going to end every Roster Move in the future with these words: Free Valentino Pascucci!!

Let's take a look at the active roster now:

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
John Maine
Pedro Martinez
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez - DL

RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Joe Smith
Tony Armas
Matt Wise - DL

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Damion Easley
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Fernando Tatis
Argenis Reyes
Luis Castillo-DL

OUTFIELDERS
Endy Chavez
Carlos Beltran
Nick Evans
Marlon Anderson
Chris Aguila
Ryan Church - DL
Moises Alou - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Trot Nixon - DL

Vote Wright in '08!! (Flushing University)

Time is winding down. The polls are closing soon. As a Mets fan, don't you have an obligation to ensure that David Wright is chosen to be a National League All Star? Read more here ...

What About Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Church/Santana?

It was a mild surprise to see only one Met make the National League All-Star team, although only Jose Reyes has a legitimate gripe against his exclusion. The Mets are still a mediocre team, whose best players have either underperformed or have missed significant time due to injury.

Reyes has the best case for inclusion, although Hanley Ramirez deservedly won the fan vote and will be starting at shortstop next Tuesday. Cristian Guzman and Miguel Tejada were chosen ahead of Reyes as reserves, however, and that's just wrong. The All-Star Game's arcane rules insist that at least one player from every team make the squad, which explains Guzman's selection. But with Lance Berkman starting at first for the NL All-Stars, the Astros were already represented. Why, then, is Tejada on the team over Reyes? The Mets' shortstop outshines his counterpart in every offensive category except home runs and RBI. Even there, Tejada's slight advantage (10-44 to 9-38) hardly outweighs Reyes's overall offensive presence.

Wright is still in the running for the final spot on the National League team and will probably win the vote, if for no other reason than name recognition. Chipper Jones won the initial fan vote ahead of Wright and deservedly so. Aramis Ramirez was chosen as Chipper's backup, even though his stats are remarkably similar to Wright's. Ramirez has done a better job in the field (7 errors to Wright's 12) and Wright's stats are artifically higher because of the way he has tatooed left-handers this season (a .416/.520/.714 clip). It's close, but Ramirez is a worthy pick.

Beltran, in contrast, doesn't have a particularly strong argument. The fans passed on him and both Matt Holliday and Ryan Ludwick have an OPS at least 100 points higher than Beltran. Nate McLouth is a bit of a reach, but he is still having a better season at the plate than Beltran and is the only Pirate to make the team. In the end, at least five other National League outfielders have more to complain about today than Carlos Beltran.

Ryan Church might've had a better shot at an All-Star nod, but his concussion woes caused him to miss too much time to merit serious consideration. His torrid early season pace was nearly enough to get me to vote for him, but I ultimately went for Xavier Nady instead. (Nady deserved to go more than Church, even though he also missed some time due to injury.)

That brings us to Johan Santana. He hasn't had a bad season, obviously, but Santana has failed to live up to expectations, which I think is what ultimately doomed him here. I think Santana would've been a better choice than Aaron Cook, but the mediocre won-loss total was too much to overcome.

Billy Wagner Is No All-Star

The rosters for the 2008 All-Star Game were announced over the weekend, which usually ends up to be more of a topic than the game itself. Only one Met made the National League team - Billy "Blown Save" Wagner - and the Mets are pushing hard for David Wright to get the final slot in an online poll taking place this week. Vote for whoever you want, but I chose the consistently underrated Pat Burrell for the last spot on the team.

Maybe I'm being a little hard on Billy - he does have a 2.31 ERA and a 0.971 WHIP and has pitched very well for a good part of the season. He's also blown six saves, second in the entire league, and at this point in his career Wagner is a specialist who only pitches in the situations he's most comfortable in. After giving up the game-tying home run yesterday, Wagner failed to come out to start the tenth inning, even though the Phillies had two lefties coming up and the Mets had already used four relievers. An All-Star gets the extra outs you need in that situation; a relief specialist sits in the dugout and waits for his next save opportunity.

The Mets won the game despite Wagner, thanks to a terrific job by Joe Smith. Maybe Smith should've represented the Mets at the All-Star Game instead of Wagner. His ERA and WHIP may be higher (although at 3.22 and 1.129, still very respectable), but Smith has made more appearances, pitched more innings and can apparently be counted on to give the Mets more than three outs at a time if necessary.

I'm being facetious, of course, and part of the blame for Wagner's continued misuse needs to be laid at the feet of "conventional wisdom," which has chosen the most inefficient path for closer usage imaginable. Until one manager finally shows the brains and the balls to break the mold, closers will continue to be slaves to the save instead of being true relief aces.

Baseball is a cruel game sometimes. Jerry Manuel mismanages his bullpen and the Mets pull out their biggest win of the season. Terry Francona shrugs off conventional wisdom and properly leverages his relievers, only to be rewarded with a loss to a hated division rival on national television.

It came back to bite him last night, but Francona did the absolute right thing by bringing in Jonathan Papelbon to pitch the 10th inning against the Yankees. Most managers would've brought in an inferior middle reliever and hoped to keep the home team off the scoreboard. Francona rightly understood that if you leave your best pitcher in the bullpen until he had a lead to work with, you may never get to use him.

Fisticuffs and Shenanigans!

Hacky Intro Alert: as our great nation prepares to celebrate its independence today, the real fireworks were going off on the Mets' team plane.

I'm sorry, I had to do it.

So Jose Reyes and Keith Hernandez nearly came to blows on the team plane last week, as the New York Post is breathlessly reporting today. Neither Mex nor Reyes denied that a confrontation took place in print, so I'll go on the assumption that this silly showdown really did take place.

My thoughts: I've always thought that it was a punk move for players to go after media types because they don't like what's being said or written about them. This looks like a punk move by Reyes, getting tough with a man 30 years older than him, who rightly called him out on his unprofessional behavior. Reyes is acting like a baby, both on the field when he has temper tantrums and off the field when he's confronting broadcasters.

I think Reyes is an amazing talent and I love to watch him play the game. I don't think the Mets should trade him or anything crazy like that, but I do think there's an unprofessional streak in him that needs to be toned down. Forget about the dancing and the elaborate hand routines; it's silly, but it doesn't bother me. I'm more concerned with on-field behavior, like getting picked off second base twice this season in ridiculous fashion or some of his stolen base attempts that serve no purpose other than to pad stats. His behavior Sunday, when he threw his glove down like he was having a Tanner Boyle hissy fit, made me angry and I was glad Hernandez called him out on it.

Since I am a blogger and not a journalist, there isn't the same stigma attached to reporting third-hand stories without ever checking attribution. So please take the next paragraph or two with a *huge* grain of salt, as I've never even met the person who allegedly heard the exchange I'm about to share.

We all come across apocryphal stories about off-the-field shenanigans of our favorite players. The best one I've heard is the story of how Bobby Ojeda really detached his middle finger in the heat of the 1988 pennant race. About three weeks ago, a friend told me via e-mail about a story relayed to him involving Mex being disturbed by Reyes's behavior around the team and went so far as to call him a "clubhouse cancer."

I initially dismissed the story when I heard it - I had no reason to believe my friend lied when he told it to me, but I also had no reason to believe HIS friend wasn't lying when he told the story either. I have to admit though, reading the newspaper about the confrontation today, I have to wonder if there was more truth to the tale that I originally believed.

That's it for me: go to a barbeque and have some fun today. Remember that July 4 marks the first step of this country's battle to throw off the oppressive yoke of England and that it took us only five years to finally do so. Ireland has worn England's yoke for a millennium and still has not been able to break free.

So if you meet an Irish guy in your travels today, remind him of these simple facts and ask him what the hell is taking his country so long to follow America's lead. Tiocadh ar la!

Roster Moves: A Whole Lot Of Stuff Happened

The transaction wire has been busy this week, as the Mets have been reshuffling the deck in an unending search for more aces and fewer jokers.

The biggest news is that starting second Luis Castillo was placed on the disabled list with leg problems. Castillo's maladies are related to his hip, his quadriceps or his surgically repaired knees, depending on who you talk to. Regardless, he want be back until mid-July at the earliest; the hot-hitting Damion Easley will likely man second base until his inevitable regression to the mean begins. That sound you hear is the cheering of Mets fans, although to be fair Castillo has basically performed as a slightly slower and weaker version of himself this season. When he comes back, I hope Jerry Manuel figures out that Castillo is a very good #8 hitter, as opposed to a very bad #2 hitter.

Carlos Muniz was also sent down - that's like the fourth time I've written that sentence this season. Chris Aguila and Argenis Reyes were called up to give the Mets the proper number of position players. Reyes is an interesting choice - he's a non-prospect getting his first taste of the majors, but he's also one of the few players not embarrassing themselves in New Orleans. He seems to have passed Anderson Hernandez on the "Middle Infielders Under 30 Who Will Never Get A Real Chance In New York" depth chart.

Andy Phillips is gone as well, having been designated for assignment after Monday's game to make room for Tony Armas's Tuesday night emergency start. Phillips has already landed on his feet, having been reclaimed by the Reds, and joins the pantheon of head-scratching moves Omar Minaya has made with players personnel this season. Armas night settle into the long man role vacated by Muniz, who in reality was a placeholder for Claudio Vargas's spot.

Back on Sunday, Ryan Church came off the DL and Trot Nixon took his place, which certainly seems like an attempt to stash Nixon away without exposing him to waivers. As long as Church isn't still seeing double, he should make the Met lineup more formidable. Manuel seems willing to bat Church ahead of Carlos Delgado, which of course makes a lot of sense. With Castillo out, I'll be curious to see if Church sees any time in the #2 hole. Nixon benefits by being white, which means that his .171/.293/.286 line as a Met nevertheless earned him praise for still being "gritty," instead of more rightfully being called "toast."

Let's take a look at the active roster now:

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
John Maine
Pedro Martinez
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez - DL

RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoeneweis
Joe Smith
Tony Armas
Matt Wise - DL

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Damion Easley
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Fernando Tatis
Argenis Reyes
Luis Castillo-DL

OUTFIELDERS
Endy Chavez
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Chris Aguila
Moises Alou - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Trot Nixon - DL

First Guessing: 7/2/08

If you don't use your best pitcher in the ninth inning because you're saving him to close the game if you get the lead, you may never get a chance to use him.

Yes, I know I've written something like this before. It was never just a Willie Randolph problem. There isn't a manager in baseball who grasps what would seem to be an elementary concept. The Mets had a choice of using their best reliever in the ninth inning last night (at least their nominally best reliever - isn't that what a closer is supposed to be?) or using a back-of-the-bullpen rookie slated for yet another trip back to New Orleans. Jerry Manuel chose Carlos Muniz. Predictable results followed.

Another Word on Pedro

First pitch in tonight's game is about an hour away and I'll be watching intently. I hit Pedro pretty hard in my Flushing University column this week, which was not easy to do. I hope that the Pedro supporters out there are correct and that I got this one wrong. Rotator cuff injuries are just so difficult to overcome - can anyone think of a player who made a full recovery from the surgery? Joe Saunders has progressed nicely this season, but his K rates are atrocious. Rick Reuschel was effective in his late 30s, but I'm struggling to remember any other pitcher who ever made a full recovery from this type of injury.

That said, I feel like my columns have been very negative the past few weeks and it's too easy to get into that habit as a writer. I'll try to switch it up next week.

Nearing the End of the Road (Flushing University)

All good things come to an end, even the careers of pitching greats like Pedro Martinez. It's dangerous to bet against him, but it's hard to foresee a day where Martinez will ever return to past glory. Read more here ...