Disgrace

The 2008 season ended in fitting fashion - at the hands of a bullpen that has more blood on its hands than Lady MacBeth.

If Jerry Manuel made one mistake today, it was in believing that Scott Schoeneweis could get a right-handed batter out when Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez inevitably pinch-hit for Jacobs leading off the eighth inning. He obviously wasn't going to get the lefty-lefty matchup that he wanted; should Manuel have simply let Brian Stokes face Jacobs and take his chances? Well, the result tells us that Stokes couldn't have done any worse.

Then it was Luis Ayala, whose batting practice 3-2 fastball ended up in the bleachers courtesy of Dan Uggla. At that point it was time to offer silent prayers to the God who has ignored us so many times before and hope that somehow, the Cubs would find a way to outlast the Brewers. Minutes later Ryan Braun hit a two-run homer to give the Milwaukee the lead; don't expect to see me in church anytime soon.

So it's over now, with the death blow delivered by the Florida Marlins for the second straight season. Blood should flow throughout the concourses of Citi Field this off-season, from the general manager's office all the way down to the home team's clubhouse. Massive change is badly needed, but with the Wilpons inexplicably leaking word of a four-year extension fpr Omar Minaya earlier this week, there's little reason to believe that such massive change will take place.

This isn't Jerry Manuel's fault, of course, but he probably has to go too. Any reminders of the horrors we've seen over the last two years must be completely scrubbed out, and that includes the job of a man who really deserves better. Manuel will land on his feet; he deserves a shot at one of the vacant managerial jobs in the off-season.

As for me, I'd still love to see Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman given the manager's chair, but the Wilpons will probably hand the job over to a retread with a recognizable name and a timid personality. This is a loser franchise, after all, and they will surely go for another loser instead of taking a chance on someone who might upset the apple cart while winning ballgames.

There can be little to complain about with Oliver Perez's performance, even though he probably shouldn't be asked to return next season. He was simply brilliant for five innings, and economical enough that he could've easily lasted eight innings if he remained effective. Cameron Maybin's double to lead off the sixth came on a 1-2 pitch at the conclusion of a tough at-bat, and the Marlins dunked in two straight singles that were really more about fortuitous placement than getting good wood on the ball.

Manuel was right to go to Joe Smith when he did, with one out and the bases loaded in the sixth inning. The 1-1 pitch to Josh Willingham was a strike, but that doesn't excuse the next two pitches that were clearly out of the strike zone. Smith made the best of a bad situation after that, getting a pop up and a ground out to get out of the inning. The game was going to be in the hands of The Arson Squad at that point, and we all knew what that was going to mean.

My only other quibble was starting Ryan Church in right field, who has looked terrible this weekend and for large portions of the second half of the season. He looked completely lost at the plate again today, striking out in his first three at-bats, and Church brought nothing to the table that couldn't have been replaced or improved by Endy Chavez or even fan favorite Daniel Murphy.

Then again, Nick Evans made a rookie mistake by throwing to third on Mike Jacobs's deep fly ball to left, and that may have indirectly led to second run of the sixth inning. There are people don't understand why the Mets would shop for a natural left fielder after the season. They think that a platoon of Murphy and Evans should suffice.

What those people do not undertsand is that an infielder's instincts are not easy to overcome and do not automatically translate to the outfield. If you have any doubt about that, look at the play Chavez made to reel in the third out of the seventh inning. Is there any doubt that ball would've sailed over the head or Evans or Murphy and driven in the go-ahead run for the Marlins?

That's not a knock on either rookie, each of whom may have a place on the 2009 Mets anyway. Murphy has spent most of his professional career at third base, while Evans has mostly played first. It's not enough to go out and read Outfield Fundamentals for Dummies; a true outfielder understands that the ball absolutely must go to second base there, to keep the baserunner on first and allow the pitcher an opportunity to get a double play.

If Evans throws to the right base after corralling that first out, Perez might have been left in the game to face Dan Uggla, who has struggled mightily this season against left-handers. Uggla has only grounded into 10 double plays this season, but he has also struck out over 170 times and would've been a great match-up for Perez. It's all academic now, but the simple act of having to play two rookie infielders out of position for so much of the season had a profound effect on this game.

As for me, I don't know when I'll be able to come back to this blog again. It is a catalogue of failure, six months of abject failure, and there is no other way to look at this lost season. I have had my heart ripped out of my throat by this baseball team for three straight years now, and I don't know how or why I'm supposed to come back for more. Perhaps the closing of Shea Stadium closes a chapter of my life even more completely than I could've ever imagined.

I just don't see how much longer this relationship can continue.

Batting Seventh, Luis Castillo

Overnight rain washed away the second game of the Mets-Phillies series today, so I have another day or two before I really start to panic. Jerry Manuel has been putting a new-look lineup out for the last five games, with his left fielders (Daniel Murphy or Nick Evans) batting second and his second basemen (Damion Easley and Luis Castillo) in the seventh hole.

First of all, I hope this just happens to be a coincidence and not a concerted effort by Manuel to assign lineup order by fielding positions. Met fans constantly complained about the former manager's head-scratching propensity for batting his second basemen in the second spot in the order, no matter who was playing the position that day. I will choose to assume that Manuel simply thinks his rookie left fielders will benefit from having Jose Reyes on base in front of them and the protection of the 3-4-5 hitters behind them. Doing so theoretically forces pitchers to throw more fastballs - both to prevent Reyes from stealing and to avoid walks that would put two guys on base in front of David Wright.

There is an added bonus to the structure - "fan favorite" Castillo belongs at the bottom of the lineup, where his .320 SLG and his 83 OPS+ is more at home. I was surprised to see him seventh though, and was initially annoyed that Manuel didn't bat Castillo eighth - something I've been advocating all season.

However, I realized something earlier today, which may explain why Castillo is a good fit for the seventh spot. Both he and Brian Schneider have similar numbers this season:

Castillo, overall: .257/.357/.320 with 3 HRs and 15 SB in 269 at-bats
Schneider, overall: .257/.343/.356 with 7 HRs and 0 SB in 292 at-bats

Castillo, righties: .266/.362/.300 with 0 HRs and 11 SB in 203 at-bats
Schneider, righties: .278/.360/.404 with 7 HRs and 0 SB in 230 at-bats

The obvious difference is that Schneider has more power (although that certainly is a relative term!) and less speed, and therefore seems like a more natural fit to bat seventh. However, on my Strat-o-Matic team I often like to bat a speedster seventh or eighth, if the bottom two or three hitters in my lineup have similar on-base numbers.

Why? Because a base-stealing threat changes the pitcher's approach in a way that benefits the hitter. The pitcher throws more fastballs, for one, and is generally preoccupied with a man on first. In Strat, holding a runner on base increases a batter's chances of getting a hit by about 3 percent (which translates into roughly 25 points of batting average). If you bat the slow runner in front of the fast runner, the fast runner gets no such benefit when the first batter gets on base in front of him.

If given the choice between two batters of roughly equal on base percentage, it always makes sense to bat the faster runner higher. The variable, of course, is the difference in slugging average. Ryan Church's SLG is 168 points higher than Castillo's, even though they have a similar OBP. The difference in SLG is large enough that it wouldn't make sense to move Castillo in the sixth spot and Church into the seventh, even if it might lead to a small jump in Church's batting average.

So it looks like Jerry Manuel may have stumbled upon the ideal place to bat Luis Castillo - on the days he decides to play him. I hope he remains in the seventh spot for the rest of the season.