Alive

Well, I didn't see that coming.

If the Mets are still standing on Monday morning, it will be because of one of the ugliest plays in baseball you could ever hope to see. I don't know how Ryan Church evaded Koyie Hill's tag and I don't want to know. I will simply choose to think of that play as a small sign from the baseball gods that maybe, just maybe, this team isn't dead yet.

It's the type of play that becomes part of a franchise's folklore, something that fans flash back to years later when recalling their memories of a particular season. And of course, because these are the Mets, it has to be said that the play never should've happened in the first place.

Church brainlocked earlier in the inning and didn't follow Carlos Beltran on the back end of a double-steal attempt. Instead, Church had to try to score from first on Robinson Cancel's double and by all rights should've been a dead duck.

That's the Mets for you - why do things the easy way if there's a more difficult and agonizing path to take?

Church blows the double-steal and Luis Aguayo sends him around third base even though the throw home beats him to the plate by 15 feet. Somehow it works out. Daniel Murphy brain-locks in the ninth and tries to bunt three balls out of the strike zone, one of which was on a 2-2 count while Jose Reyes gets a tremendous jump on a steal attempt. Somehow it works out.

These are the games the Mets have been losing for the last two weeks or so. Last night they finally reached a point where, as hard as they tried to bumble away another desperately needed victory, they simply could not close the deal. For once, we can be glad about that!

So three games to go and the division is still realisitically in play. The Phillies are playing the Nationals and there's no reason to believe they won't take 2 out of 3. The Marlins are back in town to finish the regular season against the Mets and itching to play spoiler again. Everyone remembers how 2007 ended; the Mets have a unique chance at redemption against the team that delivered the final blow last season. Win all three games and the Mets clinch at least a tie for a playoff berth, and since I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Cubs this weekend, it will guarantee at least the Loser's Reward.

I'm supposed to have tickets for tonight's game, but I have little hope it's going to actually get played. From what I understand of the weather pattern, tomorrow's game is in jeopardy as well, which threatens the commissioner's office mandate to finish the regular season by Sunday night. Maybe Saturday's game turns into a 7:10 start and they play a single-admission doubleheader on Sunday?

It's been terrible rooting for the Mets for the last two weeks, but at least we're playing meaningful baseball this weekend. That's more than I can say for the guys on the other side of town!

Batting Seventh, Luis Castillo

Overnight rain washed away the second game of the Mets-Phillies series today, so I have another day or two before I really start to panic. Jerry Manuel has been putting a new-look lineup out for the last five games, with his left fielders (Daniel Murphy or Nick Evans) batting second and his second basemen (Damion Easley and Luis Castillo) in the seventh hole.

First of all, I hope this just happens to be a coincidence and not a concerted effort by Manuel to assign lineup order by fielding positions. Met fans constantly complained about the former manager's head-scratching propensity for batting his second basemen in the second spot in the order, no matter who was playing the position that day. I will choose to assume that Manuel simply thinks his rookie left fielders will benefit from having Jose Reyes on base in front of them and the protection of the 3-4-5 hitters behind them. Doing so theoretically forces pitchers to throw more fastballs - both to prevent Reyes from stealing and to avoid walks that would put two guys on base in front of David Wright.

There is an added bonus to the structure - "fan favorite" Castillo belongs at the bottom of the lineup, where his .320 SLG and his 83 OPS+ is more at home. I was surprised to see him seventh though, and was initially annoyed that Manuel didn't bat Castillo eighth - something I've been advocating all season.

However, I realized something earlier today, which may explain why Castillo is a good fit for the seventh spot. Both he and Brian Schneider have similar numbers this season:

Castillo, overall: .257/.357/.320 with 3 HRs and 15 SB in 269 at-bats
Schneider, overall: .257/.343/.356 with 7 HRs and 0 SB in 292 at-bats

Castillo, righties: .266/.362/.300 with 0 HRs and 11 SB in 203 at-bats
Schneider, righties: .278/.360/.404 with 7 HRs and 0 SB in 230 at-bats

The obvious difference is that Schneider has more power (although that certainly is a relative term!) and less speed, and therefore seems like a more natural fit to bat seventh. However, on my Strat-o-Matic team I often like to bat a speedster seventh or eighth, if the bottom two or three hitters in my lineup have similar on-base numbers.

Why? Because a base-stealing threat changes the pitcher's approach in a way that benefits the hitter. The pitcher throws more fastballs, for one, and is generally preoccupied with a man on first. In Strat, holding a runner on base increases a batter's chances of getting a hit by about 3 percent (which translates into roughly 25 points of batting average). If you bat the slow runner in front of the fast runner, the fast runner gets no such benefit when the first batter gets on base in front of him.

If given the choice between two batters of roughly equal on base percentage, it always makes sense to bat the faster runner higher. The variable, of course, is the difference in slugging average. Ryan Church's SLG is 168 points higher than Castillo's, even though they have a similar OBP. The difference in SLG is large enough that it wouldn't make sense to move Castillo in the sixth spot and Church into the seventh, even if it might lead to a small jump in Church's batting average.

So it looks like Jerry Manuel may have stumbled upon the ideal place to bat Luis Castillo - on the days he decides to play him. I hope he remains in the seventh spot for the rest of the season.