MSM Musings: Rosenthal Smacks the Mets

Interesting story by Ken Rosenthal today, subtly blaming Omar Minaya for banking too heavily on the health of Pedro Martinez. I say "interesting" because it's not actually a "good" column; Rosenthal meanders a bit throughout and is clearly wearing his 20-20 Hindsight glasses as he takes Minaya to task. Still, it's a good sign that mainstream media outside of the volatile New York market is beginning to take notice of some of Minaya's roster cosntruction blunders.

From the column: "Forget Scott Kazmir. Mets general manager Omar Minaya isn't the one who traded him for Victor Zambrano. But Brian Bannister, who shut out the mighty Tigers for seven innings on Wednesday? Minaya dealt him for reliever Ambiorix Burgos, who likely will miss the entire season while recovering from elbow-ligament transplant surgery. Kyle Lohse, who shut out the defending NL-champion Rockies for five innings on Tuesday night? The Mets passed as he lingered on the free-agent market, allowing the Cardinals to grab him for $4.25 million. Rich Harden, who has allowed one run in 11 innings in two starts against the defending World Series champion Red Sox? The A's would ask a high-prospect price for either him or Joe Blanton — starting with prized outfielder Fernando Martinez — and the Mets depleted their farm system when they acquired Johan Santana."

It's a bit of a stretch to blame Minaya for not bringing Lohse or Harden into the fold. Lohse was adamant about wanting a multi-year deal well into spring training, at a price not nearly justified by his career record. With Santana, Maine and Perez firmly entrenched in the rotation, the Mets would've had to bank on both Pedro AND El Duque being injured at some point during the year and that their DL stints wouldn't overlap. Otherwise, the odd man out would've been Lohse - and you don't pay a guy $4.25 million (the price the Cardinals eventually paid for one year of his services) to form the best one-two punch in Pacific Coast League with Mike Pelfrey.

The Harden complaint is simply laughable. If Minaya was going to deplete his farm system for a starter, should he have chosen to do so for the consumnate best pitcher in the American League over the last five seasons, or a guy with incredible talent but has spent most of his career on the shelf? Oakland GM Billy Beane was asking a lot for Harden and rightfully so - if the kid ever stays healthy he might be replacing Santana as the best starter in the AL. Look, I was a big fan of Philip Humber, but that deal for Santana was a no-brainer. I'm not going to blame for Minaya for then not having enough prospects to go out and trade for Harden too.

Now Bannister is a different story. In the 2006 off-season, Minaya decided to shuffle young pitchers all over the league, ostensibly in the hopes that he would find a hidden gem. Instead, he gave away Bannister, Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens in three separate trades and came away with absolutely nothing of substance in return. Ambiorix Burgos and Jason Vargas are out for the season with injuries, while Ben Johnson and Adam Bostick appear to be career minor leaguers. Imagine a Mets rotation with Bannister instead of Pelfrey (and now Pelfrey instead of Nelson Figueroa). Imagine a bullpen with Heath Bell and Matt Lindstrom instead of Joe Smith and Jorge Sosa. It changes your perspective on this team's future, does it not?

Rosenthal adds three reasons why he believes the Mets are in their current predicament:

"An over-reliance on Martinez: The Mets' signing of Martinez to a four-year, $53 million contract helped transform the team's culture, persuading free agents such as Carlos Beltran and Billy Wagner to follow suit. But Martinez has made only 60 starts in those four seasons, justifying the Red Sox's decision to let him depart after the 2004 season.

Ill-advised trades: The Santana deal was a winner, even if it cost the Mets their Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 7 prospects — three pitchers plus outfielder Carlos Gomez — in Baseball America's rankings. Bannister-for-Burgos, however, looks like a major mistake. And rather than acquire a pitcher for outfielder Lastings Milledge, the Mets settled for catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church.

Questionable draft strategy: The Mets spend heavily in the international market for amateurs, but curiously adhere to Major League Baseball's recommended signing bonuses in the draft. The Yankees, Red Sox and Tigers routinely flex their revenue muscles by exceeding "slot" and signing elite young talent — without fear of reprisal from MLB."

I have to believe that the Mets signed Pedro Martinez knowing full well the injury risks involved. There were whispers that Pedro was pitching with a partially torn labrum for years and my father can tell you that torn labrums don't just heal by themselves. It was a calculated risk, by a team that could not only afford the financial hit, but also needed the credibility boost by signing a pitcher still considered among the very best in baseball. You will never hear me argue against the decision to sign Pedro, no matter how the rest of his Mets career turns out.

That said, the mindset all along is that Pedro was still the titular ace of the staff, relegated only to the #2 spot in the rotation when Santana came along. That's just ridiculous. Here's what we know about shoulder injuries to pitchers - almost NONE of them return to anything resembling their previous form. Before Tommy John surgery was conceived in the 1970s, elbow injuries of that nature were considered career-enders. There is no "Tommy John surgery" for labrum and rotator cuff injuries - and thus are still considered career enders.

Rosenthal's point is correct, though - the Mets have never properly planned for the possibility that Pedro may never give them 30 starts in a season. The reality is that Pedro Martinez (regardless of his salary) was no more than the fourth starter on the Mets going into this season - but by luck, not by design. Minaya absolutely pilfered John Maine and Oliver Perez and in the process stole his true #2 and #3 starters from other hapless teams. I find it hard to believe he could've known both would turn out to be this good, but it is this happy accident that has prevented Pedro's injury from becoming disatrous.

I mentioned some of the ill-advised trades earlier, but suffice it to say I do not believe the Mets received true value for Lastings Milledge. As for the Mets' amateur draft strategy, I wholeheartedly agree with Rosenthal. The slotting system is a joke and any team that adheres to it is simply engaging in collusion for the sake of holding down salaries. Minaya has hinted that the Mets will no longer play along, starting as soon as the June 2008 draft. It remains to be seen if he will be true to his word, but it's an encouraging development.

Roster Move: Martinez Placed on 15-Day DL

Pedro Martinez's hamstring injury will keep him out for four to six weeks, and the Mets responded by recalling Nelson Figueroa to the big club. The move means the Mets have eight relievers in the bullpen until April 12 - the first time they'll need to use a "fifth" starter.

This move is, to put it mildly, asinine. Willie has only five bench players at his disposal, but now he has eight relievers to under-utilize for the next 10 days. There's a crying need for a sixth infielder - I never thought I'd be pining for Fernando Tatis! - but that need is seemingly being ignored. I guess I should take comfort in the idea that Pedro's spot in the rotation is being skipped this time around, because at least someone recognizes that off-days can be used to your advantage when setting a pitching rotation. But as usual, I find myself questioning the logic of the decision-makers in charge of this team.

Let's take a look at the active roster now:

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL

RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano
Matt Wise
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Nelson Figueroa

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Brady Clark
Moises Alou-DL

Four-Man Rotation?

David Lennon of Newsday had a small piece on the website today claiming that the Mets are considering a four-man rotation in Pedro Martinez's absence. It's a great idea, for as long as the schedule allows it.

I'm a big proponent of limiting the amount of appearances the fifth starter makes throughout the season by making more judicious use of off-days. I'd go so far as to advocate that teams building their roster each season should be more concerned with locking in the first four guys in the rotation and allowing for an annual open competition for the fifth starter's role. Then, until the winner of the competition proves that he belongs in the "real" rotation, he can shuttle between a starter and a long reliever role.

Anyway, if they wanted to, the Mets could go without a fifth starter until April 12 while keeping everyone on "full" rest (four days between starts).

4/2: Perez
4/3: OFF DAY
4/4: Maine
4/5: Pelfrey
4/6: Santana
4/7: OFF DAY
4/8: Perez
4/9: Maine
4/10: Pelfrey
4/11: Santana

However, if the Mets stay creative, they can instead give a spot start to Jorge Sosa and turn the rotation over for another seven days. Sosa would likely need to be kept out of action after April 8 to prepare for the start, leaving the Mets with a *gasp!* six man bullpen for a few days. Yes. he'd probably limited to 5 innings or 75-85 pitches, whatever comes first. But by spot-starting Sosa, look at the way the rest of the rotation falls in line:

4/12: Sosa
4/13: Perez
4/14: OFF DAY
4/15: Maine
4/16: Pelfrey
4/17: Santana
4/18: Perez

This gets us all the way to April 19 against the Phillies, at which point the Mets would need to begin employing another starter to round out the rotation - the next off-day isn't until May 1. Like I said, Sosa could just step into the breach for a couple of weeks, but most teams aren't willing to employ a six-man bullpen for any length of time anymore.

This scenario allows the Mets to avoid calling up a starter and instead allows them the opportunity to add a badly-needed sixth infielder to the roster. Right now, Damion Easley is the backup at four positions - which is more than just a little silly. Recalling Fernando Tatis adds a corner infielder to back up Wright and a platoon partner for Delgado.

Now I am admittedly ignorant of DL rules, so I'm not sure if the Mets would have to keep Tatis on the roster until Pedro returns. However, I believe he could be sent back to New Orleans on April 19 and Figueroa could be recalled to begin making starts in Pedro's spot in the rotation. If not, the Mets could simply option/release Brady Clark to make room for the replacement starter. Keeping Tatis on the roster at the expense of Clark makes perfect sense - right now the Mets are suffering from an unusual alignment of five infielders and six outfielders.

We'll see how it all works out. I do hope the Mets will be creative here and find a way to make this injury work to their advantage.

UPDATE: Creativity is in short supply around Shea Stadium.

From the article: "While manager Willie Randolph didn't say who might start in Martinez's stead, he did say who wouldn't -- Jorge Sosa. A person in the organization had characterized Sosa as the most logical choice Wednesday morning because he is a considerably stronger and more competitive pitcher than Figueroa and because he was ideally placed to take Martinez's spot ...

But Randolph indicated he preferred not to upset the balance in the bullpen personnel by removing Sosa. Now, of the eight pitchers not in the rotation, Figueroa is the most likely to start. But Randolph said he had no person in mind because a need for the starter doesn't arise until April 12."

So if you don't need a starter for another ten days, why is Nelson Figueroa here?

First Guessing: 4/1/08

* Tough break for Matt Wise, who looked great against the first two batters in the tenth inning before getting absolutely tattooed by Robert Andino's game-winning home run. I thought the first two pitches of the at-bat pounded the bottom of the strike zone, but the ump called both of them balls. Wise was forced to work higher in the zone as a result. He threw the home run pitch in almost the exact same spot as the 2-0 pitch; you almost never get away with throwing the same pitch in the same place twice.

* In the season opener, Willie used three pitchers to get through the eighth and failed to double switch at any point, forcing him to use a fourth reliever in the ninth inning of a 7-2 game. Tonight, he uses Marlon Anderson to pinch-hit in the eighth inning against a left-handed pitcher. One night he shows an inability to manage basic National League strategy; the next night he shows a fundamental lack of understanding of lefty-lefty matchups. Say this for Willie - he never gives you a reason to change your opinion of him ...

* Who had April 1 in the Pedro Martinez injury pool? If this hamstring pull is as bad as Endy Chavez's was last season, Pedro won't be back until the All-Star Break.

New Title

I think I have only one reader at this point, and I'm not even sure how often Christine checks me out. But if you are one of the few people who know of this blog's existence, you may have noticed a name change in the last 24 hours. I agonized for several minutes over what to name this blog when I first started writing last week and initially settled on "I Hate Myself for Loving You." It is, of course, a homage to the Joan Jett and the Blackhearts song, as well as the name of a MySpace post I made last month lamenting my misfortune as a Mets fan.

That all changed yesterday, when my birthday gift from Joe finally arrived. As soon as I saw it, I realized the name of my blog was staring me right in the face.

Yep, it's a replica brick from the Fanwalk at the new Citi Field. I only believe in one type of Productive Out - the type that specifically drives in a run with less than two outs. I often bemoan my Strat-o-Matic team's inability to create productive outs, especially in games that I lose by one run. The "Crackerjack" thing was an inside joke between me, Joe and Adam - I still don't think there was anything particularly memorable about my request!

So please change your bookmarks from ihmfly.blogspot.com to productiveouts.blogspot.com. And for Christ's sake, if you're actually reading this, let me know I really do have an audience!!