Showing posts with label Stupid Decisions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stupid Decisions. Show all posts
Monday, June 29, 2009
Pitch Count Madness
I don't know what's more amazing: Ian Snell's 17-strikeout performance in Class AAA-Indianapolis last night - or the fact that he was pulled after seven innings and 108 pitches. The guy had a chance to strike out 20-plus batters in a game, and the manager is "saving" his arm?
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Throw Out The Book, AJ!!
This might be the dumbest managerial decision I've ever seen:
Top 18th: Arizona
- H. Blanco at third
- J. Wilson pitching
- F. Lopez singled to center
- G. Parra sacrificed to pitcher, F. Lopez to second
- R. Roberts walked
- S. Drew popped out to catcher
- M. Reynolds homered to deep right, F. Lopez and R. Roberts scored
- M. Montero doubled to deep right
- C. Young popped out to second
The G. Parra is Geraldo Parra, a rookie outfielder for the San Diego Padres. The game took place on Sunday, where the Pads and the Arizona Diamondbacks were locked in a 6-6 game in the 18th inning. Parra is off to a decent start in his rookie campaign, with a .301/.453/.492 batting line 23 games into his career. He was 2 for 7 with a walk and a double before the 18th inning at-bat, so it's not like Parra was having an off night.
Why, then, would Diamondbacks manager AJ Hinch ask Parra to sacrifice?
This decision might have made sense in the ninth inning, when one extra run would've been enough to hold off the Padres' furious last-ditch rally in the bottom of the frame. It might have even made sense at any point from the 10th through the 17th inning, since one run would've been enough to end the marathon.
But it made absolutely no sense in the 18th inning.
You see, the Padres had run out of pitchers. A five-inning start from Josh Geer turned out to be more costly then anyone could've imagined, when seven relievers and one starter were asked to cover the next 12 innings of the game for San Diego.
The J. Wilson who trotted to the mound in the top of the 18th inning was Josh Wilson, a light-hitting middle infielder who, ironically, began the season with Arizona. He must not have paid enough attention to the scouting reports while he was there, because former teammate Mark Reynolds hit a three-run homer off Wilson later in the inning that proved to be the margin of victory for the Diamondbacks.
The game-winning home run diverted attention away from Hinch's inexplicable decision to give up an out against a "pitcher" with virtually no professional experience on the mound. Wilson, quite obviously, is not really a pitcher - he has never taken the mound in his 11-year minor league career and has pitched a grand total of two scoreless innings in two mop-up appearances over the last three seasons.
Was Hinch afraid that Parra was going to hit into a double play? Does he have so little faith in his lineup that he really believed he had to manufacture a run against a utility infielder?
Or is Hinch so wedded to conventional thinking that he simply ordered up the sacrifice without thinking about the actual situation? Yes, if you play by "the book," your offense should be willing to sacrifice and play for the one run that would give your team the lead. (Of course, Arizona had already used their closer at that point, so it was a miracle that a nondescript middle reliever was actually able to hold a three-run lead in such a "clutch" situation.)
"After a while, it was like, any way we could score a run," Hinch said after the game. "We bunted off a position player. How rare was that? Just trying to scratch and claw for a run. I felt it was the hardest run we've ever had to score."
No, AJ, bunting off a position player isn't rare - it is stupid. I don't know what's worse - the fact that Hinch even ordered up the sacrifice or the fact that, if he hadn't, someone actually might've questioned Hinch's decision-making for not doing so.
Top 18th: Arizona
- H. Blanco at third
- J. Wilson pitching
- F. Lopez singled to center
- G. Parra sacrificed to pitcher, F. Lopez to second
- R. Roberts walked
- S. Drew popped out to catcher
- M. Reynolds homered to deep right, F. Lopez and R. Roberts scored
- M. Montero doubled to deep right
- C. Young popped out to second
The G. Parra is Geraldo Parra, a rookie outfielder for the San Diego Padres. The game took place on Sunday, where the Pads and the Arizona Diamondbacks were locked in a 6-6 game in the 18th inning. Parra is off to a decent start in his rookie campaign, with a .301/.453/.492 batting line 23 games into his career. He was 2 for 7 with a walk and a double before the 18th inning at-bat, so it's not like Parra was having an off night.
Why, then, would Diamondbacks manager AJ Hinch ask Parra to sacrifice?
This decision might have made sense in the ninth inning, when one extra run would've been enough to hold off the Padres' furious last-ditch rally in the bottom of the frame. It might have even made sense at any point from the 10th through the 17th inning, since one run would've been enough to end the marathon.
But it made absolutely no sense in the 18th inning.
You see, the Padres had run out of pitchers. A five-inning start from Josh Geer turned out to be more costly then anyone could've imagined, when seven relievers and one starter were asked to cover the next 12 innings of the game for San Diego.
The J. Wilson who trotted to the mound in the top of the 18th inning was Josh Wilson, a light-hitting middle infielder who, ironically, began the season with Arizona. He must not have paid enough attention to the scouting reports while he was there, because former teammate Mark Reynolds hit a three-run homer off Wilson later in the inning that proved to be the margin of victory for the Diamondbacks.
The game-winning home run diverted attention away from Hinch's inexplicable decision to give up an out against a "pitcher" with virtually no professional experience on the mound. Wilson, quite obviously, is not really a pitcher - he has never taken the mound in his 11-year minor league career and has pitched a grand total of two scoreless innings in two mop-up appearances over the last three seasons.
Was Hinch afraid that Parra was going to hit into a double play? Does he have so little faith in his lineup that he really believed he had to manufacture a run against a utility infielder?
Or is Hinch so wedded to conventional thinking that he simply ordered up the sacrifice without thinking about the actual situation? Yes, if you play by "the book," your offense should be willing to sacrifice and play for the one run that would give your team the lead. (Of course, Arizona had already used their closer at that point, so it was a miracle that a nondescript middle reliever was actually able to hold a three-run lead in such a "clutch" situation.)
"After a while, it was like, any way we could score a run," Hinch said after the game. "We bunted off a position player. How rare was that? Just trying to scratch and claw for a run. I felt it was the hardest run we've ever had to score."
No, AJ, bunting off a position player isn't rare - it is stupid. I don't know what's worse - the fact that Hinch even ordered up the sacrifice or the fact that, if he hadn't, someone actually might've questioned Hinch's decision-making for not doing so.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
I Give Up.
The Mets signed Livan Hernandez to a minor-league deal today. Best quote of the day?
Another voice said, "He gives us another right-handed bat off the bench."
How can I be expected to write intelligently about a baseball team that signs Livan Hernandez to a contract that will pay him money to play baseball at any level? Don't even get me started about offering ANOTHER minor-league contract to Jose Valentin.
Manny Ramirez remains unemployed. Orlando Hudson remains unemployed. Omar Minaya offers minor-league deals to the likes of Hernandez and Valentin and assures Mets fans that everything will be OK, because he added two new relievers to the bullpen. It's pathetic.
Another voice said, "He gives us another right-handed bat off the bench."
How can I be expected to write intelligently about a baseball team that signs Livan Hernandez to a contract that will pay him money to play baseball at any level? Don't even get me started about offering ANOTHER minor-league contract to Jose Valentin.
Manny Ramirez remains unemployed. Orlando Hudson remains unemployed. Omar Minaya offers minor-league deals to the likes of Hernandez and Valentin and assures Mets fans that everything will be OK, because he added two new relievers to the bullpen. It's pathetic.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Shifting Priorities
As the semester draws to a close, I'm going to have more time to update this site over the next month and a half. As you can see above (neat blogger trick!), I was able to complete a long piece for Flushing University yesterday and I had a couple of additional thoughts about why some players were not offered arbitration by their current teams.
A premium player on a one-year deal is prime trade bait. Am I supposed to believe that the Diamondbacks couldn't find a taker for Dunn on a one-year deal before Spring Training? Or that the Yankees couldn't do the same for Abreu? Look at it this way - what is more attractive to a general manager in a risk-averse climate because of the struggling economy: one guaranteed year of Adam Dunn, with the first shot at re-signing him if he hits 40 homers for the fifth straight year, or four guaranteed years at roughly the same salary?
As for the Mets, they extended arbitration to Oliver Perez, which means that if he signs with other teams they are guaranteed two draft picks. Ollie was their only Type A free agent and I doubt he's coming back, so the Mets probably guaranteed their picks with this move. Of course, the front office will simply insist that the team adheres to slot recommendations, so the Mets won't take advantage of the flawed amateur draft system anyway.
They did not extend arbitration to Type B free agents Moises Alou or Luis Ayala, so if either player signs with another team the Mets will not receive a draft pick. Ayala will probably find work somewhere, but not offering arbitration is a pretty clear sign that he is not in Minaya's plans for 2009. Let's hope we can say the same about Alou!
I still can't believe that 12 Type A free agents (the kind that earn a team two draft picks as compensation for signing with another team) were not offered arbitration, eliminating the draft pick compensation. Those 12 players should become the focus of any smart general manager who wants to add to his roster without hurting his minor-league system.
I know a lot of Mets fans are jonesing for adding Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes to lock down the closer's spot, but I'm solidly in the Trevor Hoffman camp now. Both K-Rod and Fuentes were offered arbitration and each will require multi-year deals in excess of $10 million per year. Hoffman can be had a one-year deal for half that price, will be nearly as good as any other closer on the market and won't require a long commitment. Best of all, the Padres did not offer him arbitration, so the Mets won't lose a draft pick by signing him.
My recommendation: sign Hoffman for one year and $4 million, then sign Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell if any of them will take a contract in the neighborhood of three years and $36 million.
I've been reading speculation that the reason so many Type A free agents weren't offered arbitration is fear by their former clubs that the players would actually accept it, binding those clubs to a one-year deal at a very high rate. Both Arizona and the Yankees had legitimate reason to believe that Dunn and Abreu would command more than $15 million in arbitration and apparently decided that there was too much risk involved just to guarantee two draft picks. Such thinking is short-sighted, of course. Yes, it would've taken a little more work by their respective general managers if either player accepted arbitration, but the Diamondbacks and the Yankees both just gave away valuable assets for nothing because they didn't want to assume any risk.A premium player on a one-year deal is prime trade bait. Am I supposed to believe that the Diamondbacks couldn't find a taker for Dunn on a one-year deal before Spring Training? Or that the Yankees couldn't do the same for Abreu? Look at it this way - what is more attractive to a general manager in a risk-averse climate because of the struggling economy: one guaranteed year of Adam Dunn, with the first shot at re-signing him if he hits 40 homers for the fifth straight year, or four guaranteed years at roughly the same salary?
As for the Mets, they extended arbitration to Oliver Perez, which means that if he signs with other teams they are guaranteed two draft picks. Ollie was their only Type A free agent and I doubt he's coming back, so the Mets probably guaranteed their picks with this move. Of course, the front office will simply insist that the team adheres to slot recommendations, so the Mets won't take advantage of the flawed amateur draft system anyway.
They did not extend arbitration to Type B free agents Moises Alou or Luis Ayala, so if either player signs with another team the Mets will not receive a draft pick. Ayala will probably find work somewhere, but not offering arbitration is a pretty clear sign that he is not in Minaya's plans for 2009. Let's hope we can say the same about Alou!
Saturday, November 8, 2008
HahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaLOLZ!!!
"It surprised me, too," Willie Randolph said. "He had what you call a brainstorm, I guess."
Friday, August 8, 2008
Two Walk-Offs on Thursday
I saw two walk-offs yesterday - David Wright's game winner off Heath Bell and Angst/Joey Walnuts's bush league tantrum in the top of the ninth.
First, some background. I put the word out earlier this week that I was planning to skip work on Thursday to catch the last "businessman's special" in Shea Stadium history. (Not realizing, of course, that the Mets were shoehorning a make-up game with the Pirates in on Monday afternoon.) Invites went out to a bunch of people I like going to games with, but only AJW (because initials are easier) and T-Bone were smart enough to take me up on the offer.
AJW and I set up shop in the parking lot around 10:30 am with two chairs, a bag of pretzels and a 12-pack in an ice-filled cooler - all courtesy of AJW's forward thinking. By the time T-Bone showed up, about 20 minutes before first pitch, we were down to the last two beers and congratulating ourselves for coming up with such a brilliant idea.
The plan was to buy the cheapest seats in the stadium and sit in the top row of the Upper Deck, to fully enjoy the Shea Experience to stay the hell away from all the camp kids. A random passer-by was nice enough to drop an extra ticket in my hands at no charge - I hope the karma gods shone brightly on you yesterday, buddy. My free ticket was Upper Deck section 31, but AJW and T-Bone each bought a $20 ticket in the upper reaches of Section 44. ($20 for a mid-week day game in the Upper Deck!? Disgusting!!) We all went in together and settled in the third-highest row of Section 40, which was sufficiently child-free. Check out the view (that's T-Bone walking up the aisle, beer in hand):
The game was enjoyable - Johan Santana pitched well and the Mets led most of the way. I only had two beers, because they are outrageously expensive and since I was pacing myself for the Pitch and Putt course that T-Bone and I were going to conquer after the game.
Then came the ninth inning. The three of us were lamenting Jerry Manuel's Randolph-esque bullpen management in the eighth - I know the relievers are struggling, but you're really going to pull Duaner Sanchez after one pitch? Scott Schoeneweis inexplicably started the ninth inning, even though it took Joe Smith four pitches to get out of the eighth inning and Chase Headley was leading off. Yes, Headley is a switch hitter, but he is tattooing lefties this season and struggling mightily against righties.
Scott retired Headley to get the first out before giving up the majestic blast to Jody Gerut to tie the game. What more can be said about Scott Schoeneweis that hasn't been said already? Aaron Heilman came in to get the last two outs and the game went to the bottom of the ninth.
By this time, AJW was already smoking a cigarette in front of the press gate. He threw a hissy fit after the Gerut homer and stormed out of the stadium without so much as a goodbye to me or T-Bone. Lame! I didn't find this out until the middle of the ninth, when I called his cell to find out where the hell he went. After much yelling and several reminders that he wasn't going anywhere with T-Bone's clubs in his trunk, I hung up to focus on the bottom of the ninth.
From our vantage point, I didn't think Wright's blast was a home run. I wasn't sure if it was fair or foul, but it seemed to be too much of a line drive to go over the fence. The replays I saw later that evening made it clear how wrong I was, but hey, you try accurately predicting home runs down the left-field line from Section 40 of the Upper Deck!
So there it was, the most exciting of plays, and AJW missed it all because he acted like a nine-year-old girl. T-Bone stayed until the end but deserves a bit of a reprimand as well; he openly stated that he was going to leave if the Mets didn't score and would've skipped extra innings entirely. What is wrong with my friends?
A good day at the park was made better by 18 holes in Flushing Meadow and a big dinner at 5 Burros with T-Bone. The combination of beer and sunshine finally took its toll; I got home at 8:30 pm and promptly passed out until almost midnight. By that time, CC has called and texted me a bunch of times wondering where on Earth I was. When I told her about the day's events and my alcohol-fueled power nap, she was less than impressed. Hey, days like this are few and far between!
First, some background. I put the word out earlier this week that I was planning to skip work on Thursday to catch the last "businessman's special" in Shea Stadium history. (Not realizing, of course, that the Mets were shoehorning a make-up game with the Pirates in on Monday afternoon.) Invites went out to a bunch of people I like going to games with, but only AJW (because initials are easier) and T-Bone were smart enough to take me up on the offer.
AJW and I set up shop in the parking lot around 10:30 am with two chairs, a bag of pretzels and a 12-pack in an ice-filled cooler - all courtesy of AJW's forward thinking. By the time T-Bone showed up, about 20 minutes before first pitch, we were down to the last two beers and congratulating ourselves for coming up with such a brilliant idea.
The plan was to buy the cheapest seats in the stadium and sit in the top row of the Upper Deck, to fully enjoy the Shea Experience to stay the hell away from all the camp kids. A random passer-by was nice enough to drop an extra ticket in my hands at no charge - I hope the karma gods shone brightly on you yesterday, buddy. My free ticket was Upper Deck section 31, but AJW and T-Bone each bought a $20 ticket in the upper reaches of Section 44. ($20 for a mid-week day game in the Upper Deck!? Disgusting!!) We all went in together and settled in the third-highest row of Section 40, which was sufficiently child-free. Check out the view (that's T-Bone walking up the aisle, beer in hand):
The game was enjoyable - Johan Santana pitched well and the Mets led most of the way. I only had two beers, because they are outrageously expensive and since I was pacing myself for the Pitch and Putt course that T-Bone and I were going to conquer after the game.
Then came the ninth inning. The three of us were lamenting Jerry Manuel's Randolph-esque bullpen management in the eighth - I know the relievers are struggling, but you're really going to pull Duaner Sanchez after one pitch? Scott Schoeneweis inexplicably started the ninth inning, even though it took Joe Smith four pitches to get out of the eighth inning and Chase Headley was leading off. Yes, Headley is a switch hitter, but he is tattooing lefties this season and struggling mightily against righties.
Scott retired Headley to get the first out before giving up the majestic blast to Jody Gerut to tie the game. What more can be said about Scott Schoeneweis that hasn't been said already? Aaron Heilman came in to get the last two outs and the game went to the bottom of the ninth.
By this time, AJW was already smoking a cigarette in front of the press gate. He threw a hissy fit after the Gerut homer and stormed out of the stadium without so much as a goodbye to me or T-Bone. Lame! I didn't find this out until the middle of the ninth, when I called his cell to find out where the hell he went. After much yelling and several reminders that he wasn't going anywhere with T-Bone's clubs in his trunk, I hung up to focus on the bottom of the ninth.
From our vantage point, I didn't think Wright's blast was a home run. I wasn't sure if it was fair or foul, but it seemed to be too much of a line drive to go over the fence. The replays I saw later that evening made it clear how wrong I was, but hey, you try accurately predicting home runs down the left-field line from Section 40 of the Upper Deck!
So there it was, the most exciting of plays, and AJW missed it all because he acted like a nine-year-old girl. T-Bone stayed until the end but deserves a bit of a reprimand as well; he openly stated that he was going to leave if the Mets didn't score and would've skipped extra innings entirely. What is wrong with my friends?
A good day at the park was made better by 18 holes in Flushing Meadow and a big dinner at 5 Burros with T-Bone. The combination of beer and sunshine finally took its toll; I got home at 8:30 pm and promptly passed out until almost midnight. By that time, CC has called and texted me a bunch of times wondering where on Earth I was. When I told her about the day's events and my alcohol-fueled power nap, she was less than impressed. Hey, days like this are few and far between!
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
The Trade Deadline Approaches ...
Fans love the trade deadline. Every team within 10 games of first place deludes themselves into believing they are a potential playoff team and find themselves acting accordingly on the trade market. It's all very exciting, because fans naturally like to believe that their favorite team is just one or two players away from a league pennant. The reality, of course, is that most of these teams are fooling themselves and are only hurting their chances at future success by not committing to a long-term improvement plan.
This is not the case for the Mets, who play in a relatively weak division in a relatively weak league. When you're in first place after nearly 110 games, it's a sign that your team is a playoff contender, regardless of how mediocre the National League East might be. The Mets are one of the five best teams in the National League, but they clearly trail the Cubs and the Brewers on that list.
Still, don't expect to see any new players in a Mets uniform before 4 pm tomorrow. The Mets simply don't have any trade chips they're willing to part with, and the 10 0r 15 sellers on the trade market have no obligation to part with their better players at cut-rate prices just to satisfy Mets fans.
The Mets are in their fifth straight year as “buyers,” although they really had no business doing so in 2004 and 2005. Mets’ brass completely misread their team’s fortunes in 2004; despite being three games under .500 and owning the fifth-worst record in the National League, ownership and fanbase alike were seduced by what it perceived to be a slim 6.5-game deficit in the NL East.
(That sounds a lot like what the Rockies are doing right now, which is another reason why there's no reason to believe Brian Fuentes will be wearing a Mets uniform this season.)
Another ignominious chapter in franchise history was the result – the Mets made three trades involving some of their best prospects for players who would not only fail to push the Mets into a playoff berth, but would also end up having undistinguished careers in New York.
The first deal actually didn't turn out so badly, in the long run. The Mets traded Ty Wigginton and two highly regarded prospects to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Wigginton had no place on the team with the emergence of David Wright, but Huber and Peterson were two of the Mets' better prospects and seemed destined for a bright future (think Carlos Gomez and Phil Humber in terms of where each player ranked in the system at the time). Neither panned out, a break for the Mets and typical luck for the Pirates.
Benson, meanwhile, pitched reasonably well for the rest of the 2004 season and was a capable mid-rotation starter in 2005, but he will be best remembered for his wife and the fact that the Orioles eventually gave the Mets John Maine in exchange for Benson's services. Keppinger was never given a chance for New York and was eventually swapped for Ruben Gotay, who was released at the end of Spring Training this year. Keppinger simply hits everywhere he goes and has finally settled in as a valuable utility player for the Cincinnati Reds.
It was, of course, the other deal that resonates to this day. Emerging superstar Scott Kazmir and a nondescript middle reliever was traded to the then-hapless Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano and a nondescript middle reliever. To make matters worse, I remember nearly driving off the road on Yellowstone Boulevard and shrieking in horror at the radio when the trade was announced.
Never before has a trade gone so lopsided so fast, and the Mets were understandably spooked into paralysis at the 2005 trade deadline.
This is not the case for the Mets, who play in a relatively weak division in a relatively weak league. When you're in first place after nearly 110 games, it's a sign that your team is a playoff contender, regardless of how mediocre the National League East might be. The Mets are one of the five best teams in the National League, but they clearly trail the Cubs and the Brewers on that list.
Still, don't expect to see any new players in a Mets uniform before 4 pm tomorrow. The Mets simply don't have any trade chips they're willing to part with, and the 10 0r 15 sellers on the trade market have no obligation to part with their better players at cut-rate prices just to satisfy Mets fans.
The Mets are in their fifth straight year as “buyers,” although they really had no business doing so in 2004 and 2005. Mets’ brass completely misread their team’s fortunes in 2004; despite being three games under .500 and owning the fifth-worst record in the National League, ownership and fanbase alike were seduced by what it perceived to be a slim 6.5-game deficit in the NL East.
(That sounds a lot like what the Rockies are doing right now, which is another reason why there's no reason to believe Brian Fuentes will be wearing a Mets uniform this season.)
Another ignominious chapter in franchise history was the result – the Mets made three trades involving some of their best prospects for players who would not only fail to push the Mets into a playoff berth, but would also end up having undistinguished careers in New York.
The first deal actually didn't turn out so badly, in the long run. The Mets traded Ty Wigginton and two highly regarded prospects to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger. Wigginton had no place on the team with the emergence of David Wright, but Huber and Peterson were two of the Mets' better prospects and seemed destined for a bright future (think Carlos Gomez and Phil Humber in terms of where each player ranked in the system at the time). Neither panned out, a break for the Mets and typical luck for the Pirates.
Benson, meanwhile, pitched reasonably well for the rest of the 2004 season and was a capable mid-rotation starter in 2005, but he will be best remembered for his wife and the fact that the Orioles eventually gave the Mets John Maine in exchange for Benson's services. Keppinger was never given a chance for New York and was eventually swapped for Ruben Gotay, who was released at the end of Spring Training this year. Keppinger simply hits everywhere he goes and has finally settled in as a valuable utility player for the Cincinnati Reds.
It was, of course, the other deal that resonates to this day. Emerging superstar Scott Kazmir and a nondescript middle reliever was traded to the then-hapless Devil Rays for Victor Zambrano and a nondescript middle reliever. To make matters worse, I remember nearly driving off the road on Yellowstone Boulevard and shrieking in horror at the radio when the trade was announced.
Never before has a trade gone so lopsided so fast, and the Mets were understandably spooked into paralysis at the 2005 trade deadline.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
About Last Night ...
I was busy putting the finishing touches on my Flushing University column last night when the Phillies decided to batter the Mets bullpen and snatch first place right out from under their noses. Of course, the shocking ninth-inning comeback forced me into rewrite stage and didn't give me an opportunity to comment on the debacle.
Luckily for me, loyal reader James Allen perfectly summed up the talking points for last night's game, so I am going to steal from him shamelessly to make my points here.
1) Johan Santana absolutely, positively, unquestionably needs to pitch a complete game last night. However, I put this decision squarely on the manager's shoulders, not Santana's. Jerry Manuel made the biggest mistake of his brief tenure with the Mets last night, and it cost the Mets a game they had no business losing. He has to toss the pitch count garbage out the window in this situation and recognize what was at stake here.
The Mets are paying Johan Santana approximately $150 million over the next seven seasons. He is 29 years old, he had only thrown 105 pitches to that point and he had a three-run lead. It is the height of stupidity to pull him in that situation, ESPECIALLY when your "All-Star" closer has already made it clear he won't be pitching that night. If you don't believe your $22 million ace can get out the 5-6-7 hitters in the Phillies' lineup because he's crossed the mythical 100-pitch bridge, then it's time to pack up shop and go play backgammon, because baseball as we know it is dead.
2) I know that Luis Aguayo has to be thinking that lightning doesn't strike twice, but how can he send Endy Chavez around third in the bottom of the seventh with nobody out and a three-run lead? If Chavez stays put, the Mets have two runners on with nobody out and the 4-5-6 hitters striding to the plate. (And yes, James, Castro should be hitting sixth; someone give Manuel the memo that Castro is already one of the best hitting catchers in the National League.)
Luckily for me, loyal reader James Allen perfectly summed up the talking points for last night's game, so I am going to steal from him shamelessly to make my points here.
1) Johan Santana absolutely, positively, unquestionably needs to pitch a complete game last night. However, I put this decision squarely on the manager's shoulders, not Santana's. Jerry Manuel made the biggest mistake of his brief tenure with the Mets last night, and it cost the Mets a game they had no business losing. He has to toss the pitch count garbage out the window in this situation and recognize what was at stake here.
The Mets are paying Johan Santana approximately $150 million over the next seven seasons. He is 29 years old, he had only thrown 105 pitches to that point and he had a three-run lead. It is the height of stupidity to pull him in that situation, ESPECIALLY when your "All-Star" closer has already made it clear he won't be pitching that night. If you don't believe your $22 million ace can get out the 5-6-7 hitters in the Phillies' lineup because he's crossed the mythical 100-pitch bridge, then it's time to pack up shop and go play backgammon, because baseball as we know it is dead.
2) I know that Luis Aguayo has to be thinking that lightning doesn't strike twice, but how can he send Endy Chavez around third in the bottom of the seventh with nobody out and a three-run lead? If Chavez stays put, the Mets have two runners on with nobody out and the 4-5-6 hitters striding to the plate. (And yes, James, Castro should be hitting sixth; someone give Manuel the memo that Castro is already one of the best hitting catchers in the National League.)
Sunday, June 22, 2008
MSM Musings: Reliever Roles
One of Jerry Manuel's "campaign promises" when he took over as manager last week was to define bullpen roles, so that the seven relievers in the Mets' bullpen could have a reasonable expectation of the situations they would be called upon to pitch. The preview for today's season finale against the Rockies (which we are live-blogging at 3 pm!) includes quotes from Manuel about the roles he has begun to carve out for his relievers.
From the article: Interim manager Jerry Manuel said Saturday that he's in the process of defining roles for all his pitchers, and that they won't stray far from those posts. (Billy) Wagner is the closer. (Duaner) Sanchez is the setup man. (Joe) Smith and (Pedro) Feliciano are the right-handed and left-handed specialists, respectively.
"I would rather those guys stay as short as possible," Manuel said.
Oh man, is he serious? Did Jerry Manuel also miss the memo that Scott Schoeneweis can only function as a lefty specialist and still gets tattooed against right-handers? Yes, I know his superficially pretty numbers this season (a 2.40 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP) are a distraction, but as usual there is a obvious difference in his effectiveness between lefties (.135/.220/.192) and righties (.280/.373/.480). The more righties Schoeneweis faces, the less effective he is going to be.
Meanwhile Feliciano, after a terrible start to the season, has pitched very well since mid-May. He has a .270 ERA and a 1.138 WHIP in his last 20 appearances, and batters are hitting just .193 against Feliciano in that time frame. Their season lines are very similar against righties (.281/.369/.439 for Feliciano), but historically Pedro has been far more effective against opposite-handed batters that Schoeneweis. He should be getting longer outings and more at-bats against righties, because he is far more likely to get them out that Schoeneweis is.
Jerry, your bullpen hierarchy should look something like this:
Closer: Billy Wagner
Righty Set-Up Man: Duaner Sanchez
Lefty Set-Up Man: Pedro Feliciano
Righty Specialist: Joe Smith
Lefty Specialist: Scott Schoeneweis
Mop-Up Man: Aaron Heilman
Long Reliever: Claudio Vargas
Personally, I'm not a big fan of overly defining individual bullpen roles anyway. I'm of the belief that the best relievers should get the most work and the most appearances on high leverage situations, regardless of their role. Of course, I'm also one of those heretics that doesn't believe in the current concept of the closer, so I know that I'm never going to find a modern-day manager who shares my viewpoints.
I always thought one of the few things that Willie Randolph did well was refusing to define bullpen roles. Randolph simply went with the guy he thought was the most likely to get the outs he needed. The problem was that Randolph had a terrible feel for who was the most likely to actually get the out and often went against the percentages when choosing a reliever. (Think Schoeneweis against a righty or Jorge Sosa against a lefty.) More often than not, this led to disastrous results.
From the article: Interim manager Jerry Manuel said Saturday that he's in the process of defining roles for all his pitchers, and that they won't stray far from those posts. (Billy) Wagner is the closer. (Duaner) Sanchez is the setup man. (Joe) Smith and (Pedro) Feliciano are the right-handed and left-handed specialists, respectively.
"I would rather those guys stay as short as possible," Manuel said.
Oh man, is he serious? Did Jerry Manuel also miss the memo that Scott Schoeneweis can only function as a lefty specialist and still gets tattooed against right-handers? Yes, I know his superficially pretty numbers this season (a 2.40 ERA and a 1.033 WHIP) are a distraction, but as usual there is a obvious difference in his effectiveness between lefties (.135/.220/.192) and righties (.280/.373/.480). The more righties Schoeneweis faces, the less effective he is going to be.
Meanwhile Feliciano, after a terrible start to the season, has pitched very well since mid-May. He has a .270 ERA and a 1.138 WHIP in his last 20 appearances, and batters are hitting just .193 against Feliciano in that time frame. Their season lines are very similar against righties (.281/.369/.439 for Feliciano), but historically Pedro has been far more effective against opposite-handed batters that Schoeneweis. He should be getting longer outings and more at-bats against righties, because he is far more likely to get them out that Schoeneweis is.
Jerry, your bullpen hierarchy should look something like this:
Closer: Billy Wagner
Righty Set-Up Man: Duaner Sanchez
Lefty Set-Up Man: Pedro Feliciano
Righty Specialist: Joe Smith
Lefty Specialist: Scott Schoeneweis
Mop-Up Man: Aaron Heilman
Long Reliever: Claudio Vargas
Personally, I'm not a big fan of overly defining individual bullpen roles anyway. I'm of the belief that the best relievers should get the most work and the most appearances on high leverage situations, regardless of their role. Of course, I'm also one of those heretics that doesn't believe in the current concept of the closer, so I know that I'm never going to find a modern-day manager who shares my viewpoints.
I always thought one of the few things that Willie Randolph did well was refusing to define bullpen roles. Randolph simply went with the guy he thought was the most likely to get the outs he needed. The problem was that Randolph had a terrible feel for who was the most likely to actually get the out and often went against the percentages when choosing a reliever. (Think Schoeneweis against a righty or Jorge Sosa against a lefty.) More often than not, this led to disastrous results.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Missing the Boat
The sharks are in the water and everyone is looking for their pound of flesh.
As the Mets continue to flounder in 2008 (sorry, but two straight wins against the last-place team in the American League East doesn't mean they're suddenly ready to begin dominating the rest of the league), the mainstream media has decided that Willie Randolph's head is on the chopping block. The predictable avalanche of columns and reports have followed, nearly all of them focusing on the perception of Willie's lack of control over the Mets' clubhouse and the placid demeanor he and his team continue to show.
Willie fired back last night, taking the media to task for their characterization of him and suggesting that there may even be a racial component to the criticism he's facing. Racism in baseball - and in American society - still exists, of course. But that's not the problem here. Willie doesn't yell and scream and kick dirt and throw stuff on the field when his team isn't showing enough "spark," whatever the hell that means. But that's not the problem either.
The problem is plain and simple - Willie Randolph is a poor tactical manager, who is not rising above the poorly constructed roster being handed to him by his general manager.
There's a reason why Willie Randolph was passed over by more than 10 teams with managerial openings in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It had a little bit to do with the color of his skin (because it would be naive to say that race played no factor at all), but it had a lot to do with the fact that he had no previous managerial experience. Randolph simply refused to manage in the minor leagues to prove himself and instead remained a coach on Joe Torre's staff for several years that he could've been honing the craft at lower levels of organized baseball.
Torre wasn't some type of managerial savant when he ran the ship for the Mets, the Braves or the Cardinals. He only became St. Joe of the Diamonds when he took over a team with the highest payroll in baseball and the greatest, most automatic reliever in baseball history. It didn't hurt that he managed in the American League, where you write nine names on the lineup card and see what happens, or that the enormous payroll more often than not allowed him to write nine names better than anyone else's lineup.
The notion that an apprenticeship under Joe Torre was enough to build one's self into a great manager - a notion that Randolph seemingly buys into - is simply ridiculous. There are very few people in baseball good enough to run a baseball team without spending a few seasons in the minor leagues getting his feet wet. To say that Willie Randolph isn't one of them is not an insult to Willie Randolph; it is simply recognition that Randolph is like nearly every other baseball man on the planet who needed some practice before he became perfect.
Now, we are nearly 3 1/2 years into the Willie Randolph Era and two things are becoming very clear. The first is that Randolph is a conservative, by the book manager whose unimaginative nature does not distinguish him from the rest of the pack. The second is that Randolph still struggles to grasp elementary game tactics, as well as tactics regarding lineup construction and bullpen usage. The result is a skipper who is an active detriment to his team's overall success.
In Willie's World, starters rarely go more than 100 pitches, regardless of circumstance, and multiple relievers pitch every day, rarely more than an inning at a time. The result is an overtaxed bullpen that has observers rightly questioning if they will be able to sustain such an enormous workload for an entire season. In Willie's World, the second place hitter in the lineup is a slap hitter who bunts and moves the runners over, not someone who can actually hit. The result is the continued misuse of Luis Castillo, whose diminished power numbers make him unusable anywhere other than the #8 spot in the lineup.
Willie still doesn't know when to double-switch and still overuses relievers regardless of performance. Who leads the Mets in relief innings pitched so far in 2008? Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa - the two most ineffective relievers in the bullpen this season. Marlon Anderson has been used as a pinch hitter in 29 of the Mets' 41 games this season - he is 5 for 25 with just two extra-base hits. Willie complains about "length" from his starting pitchers, but no one has thrown more than 117 pitches in a game this season, despite a rotation with four starters under the age of 30.
The blame can't all be laid at Willie's feet. He didn't decide to entrust the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation to walking injury risks Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez. He didn't give a lefty specialist a three-year guaranteed contract. He didn't trade for Carlos Delgado's decline years, which just happened to also be his most expensive years. He didn't give a four-year contract to a Punch and Judy hitter with bad knees like Castillo. He didn't decide to build a bench mostly featuring aging second basemen, one of whom has morphed into the re-incarnation of Manny Mota.
This is a $137 million team with no depth and that's Omar Minaya's fault, no matter how you slice it. The farm system - no great shakes to begin with after several years of slot drafting and bad decisions - was laid bare to get Santana, so help most assuredly is not on the way.
So forget about Randolph's demeanor on the bench. Forget about the locker room of quiet players who aren't screaming or fighting or doing whatever the WFAN yahoos think they need to do to "show some guts." That's not the problem here. Willie Randolph is costing the Mets wins not for his behavior in the clubhouse, but for his decisions in the dugout. Everything else just complicates what should be an elementary issue.
As the Mets continue to flounder in 2008 (sorry, but two straight wins against the last-place team in the American League East doesn't mean they're suddenly ready to begin dominating the rest of the league), the mainstream media has decided that Willie Randolph's head is on the chopping block. The predictable avalanche of columns and reports have followed, nearly all of them focusing on the perception of Willie's lack of control over the Mets' clubhouse and the placid demeanor he and his team continue to show.
Willie fired back last night, taking the media to task for their characterization of him and suggesting that there may even be a racial component to the criticism he's facing. Racism in baseball - and in American society - still exists, of course. But that's not the problem here. Willie doesn't yell and scream and kick dirt and throw stuff on the field when his team isn't showing enough "spark," whatever the hell that means. But that's not the problem either.
The problem is plain and simple - Willie Randolph is a poor tactical manager, who is not rising above the poorly constructed roster being handed to him by his general manager.
There's a reason why Willie Randolph was passed over by more than 10 teams with managerial openings in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It had a little bit to do with the color of his skin (because it would be naive to say that race played no factor at all), but it had a lot to do with the fact that he had no previous managerial experience. Randolph simply refused to manage in the minor leagues to prove himself and instead remained a coach on Joe Torre's staff for several years that he could've been honing the craft at lower levels of organized baseball.
Torre wasn't some type of managerial savant when he ran the ship for the Mets, the Braves or the Cardinals. He only became St. Joe of the Diamonds when he took over a team with the highest payroll in baseball and the greatest, most automatic reliever in baseball history. It didn't hurt that he managed in the American League, where you write nine names on the lineup card and see what happens, or that the enormous payroll more often than not allowed him to write nine names better than anyone else's lineup.
The notion that an apprenticeship under Joe Torre was enough to build one's self into a great manager - a notion that Randolph seemingly buys into - is simply ridiculous. There are very few people in baseball good enough to run a baseball team without spending a few seasons in the minor leagues getting his feet wet. To say that Willie Randolph isn't one of them is not an insult to Willie Randolph; it is simply recognition that Randolph is like nearly every other baseball man on the planet who needed some practice before he became perfect.
Now, we are nearly 3 1/2 years into the Willie Randolph Era and two things are becoming very clear. The first is that Randolph is a conservative, by the book manager whose unimaginative nature does not distinguish him from the rest of the pack. The second is that Randolph still struggles to grasp elementary game tactics, as well as tactics regarding lineup construction and bullpen usage. The result is a skipper who is an active detriment to his team's overall success.
In Willie's World, starters rarely go more than 100 pitches, regardless of circumstance, and multiple relievers pitch every day, rarely more than an inning at a time. The result is an overtaxed bullpen that has observers rightly questioning if they will be able to sustain such an enormous workload for an entire season. In Willie's World, the second place hitter in the lineup is a slap hitter who bunts and moves the runners over, not someone who can actually hit. The result is the continued misuse of Luis Castillo, whose diminished power numbers make him unusable anywhere other than the #8 spot in the lineup.
Willie still doesn't know when to double-switch and still overuses relievers regardless of performance. Who leads the Mets in relief innings pitched so far in 2008? Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa - the two most ineffective relievers in the bullpen this season. Marlon Anderson has been used as a pinch hitter in 29 of the Mets' 41 games this season - he is 5 for 25 with just two extra-base hits. Willie complains about "length" from his starting pitchers, but no one has thrown more than 117 pitches in a game this season, despite a rotation with four starters under the age of 30.
The blame can't all be laid at Willie's feet. He didn't decide to entrust the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation to walking injury risks Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez. He didn't give a lefty specialist a three-year guaranteed contract. He didn't trade for Carlos Delgado's decline years, which just happened to also be his most expensive years. He didn't give a four-year contract to a Punch and Judy hitter with bad knees like Castillo. He didn't decide to build a bench mostly featuring aging second basemen, one of whom has morphed into the re-incarnation of Manny Mota.
This is a $137 million team with no depth and that's Omar Minaya's fault, no matter how you slice it. The farm system - no great shakes to begin with after several years of slot drafting and bad decisions - was laid bare to get Santana, so help most assuredly is not on the way.
So forget about Randolph's demeanor on the bench. Forget about the locker room of quiet players who aren't screaming or fighting or doing whatever the WFAN yahoos think they need to do to "show some guts." That's not the problem here. Willie Randolph is costing the Mets wins not for his behavior in the clubhouse, but for his decisions in the dugout. Everything else just complicates what should be an elementary issue.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Whither Matt Wise?
The right-handed reliever has been ready to go since last Friday night, after spending a month on the disabled list with what is being mockingly referred to as a "bruised forearm." He's apparently hovering around the organization, waiting for the Mets to make a decision about who he'll be replacing in the bullpen when he's finally activated.
Here's the problem - the Mets don't have an obvious candidate to replace him with.
Well, that's not entirely true. Jorge Sosa has been passed over on the starting pitcher depth chart by Nelson Figueroa and has been getting tattooed as a reliever this season. After last night's debacle against the Nationals, Sosa is sporting a 7.06 ERA and a 1.892 WHIP. Incredibly, Sosa has nevertheless made 20 appearances in the Mets' first 36 games, further proof that Willie Randolph still does not appreciate the wit and wisdom of Albert Einstein.
Yet as you read this today, Sosa will in all likelihood remain a member of the New York Mets. That's because Omar Minaya, in his haste to lock up every player on his roster from 2007, signed Sosa to a one-year, $2 million guaranteed contract in the off-season. It's the cardinal sin of roster construction - not leaving yourself enough flexibility to make changes when needed.
Sosa is a glorified righty specialist with enough arm strength to give you five mediocre innings as a starter or two mediocre innings as a reliever. He has pitched exceptionally poorly this year and has to be considered the worst reliever in the bullpen right now, but Minaya is simply not going to demote or release him to make room for Wise. Instead Joe Smith's head is squarely on the chopping block, for reasons that have nothing to do with performance. Smith is a righty specialist - just like Sosa - but makes $1.6 million less and can be sent to the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers.
Who do you think is going to be left standing when Wise is finally brought back into the fold?
(A quick diversion: the most inappropriate charge horn in the National League was just sounded over the Mets' PA system - with the team losing 10-4 with one out and a man on first in the bottom of the eighth inning. I've been hearing that goddamn horn since high school and I've never once heard it played for anything other than maximum embarrassment for a conscientious baseball fan.)
Get used to Jorge Sosa, because he's not going anywhere. Joe Smith is the only guy with minor-league options, so I will be stunned if he's not pitching in New Orleans next week. It's nothing more than a numbers game - and it's looking like another loss for the Mets.
Here's the problem - the Mets don't have an obvious candidate to replace him with.
Well, that's not entirely true. Jorge Sosa has been passed over on the starting pitcher depth chart by Nelson Figueroa and has been getting tattooed as a reliever this season. After last night's debacle against the Nationals, Sosa is sporting a 7.06 ERA and a 1.892 WHIP. Incredibly, Sosa has nevertheless made 20 appearances in the Mets' first 36 games, further proof that Willie Randolph still does not appreciate the wit and wisdom of Albert Einstein.
Yet as you read this today, Sosa will in all likelihood remain a member of the New York Mets. That's because Omar Minaya, in his haste to lock up every player on his roster from 2007, signed Sosa to a one-year, $2 million guaranteed contract in the off-season. It's the cardinal sin of roster construction - not leaving yourself enough flexibility to make changes when needed.
Sosa is a glorified righty specialist with enough arm strength to give you five mediocre innings as a starter or two mediocre innings as a reliever. He has pitched exceptionally poorly this year and has to be considered the worst reliever in the bullpen right now, but Minaya is simply not going to demote or release him to make room for Wise. Instead Joe Smith's head is squarely on the chopping block, for reasons that have nothing to do with performance. Smith is a righty specialist - just like Sosa - but makes $1.6 million less and can be sent to the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers.
Who do you think is going to be left standing when Wise is finally brought back into the fold?
(A quick diversion: the most inappropriate charge horn in the National League was just sounded over the Mets' PA system - with the team losing 10-4 with one out and a man on first in the bottom of the eighth inning. I've been hearing that goddamn horn since high school and I've never once heard it played for anything other than maximum embarrassment for a conscientious baseball fan.)
Get used to Jorge Sosa, because he's not going anywhere. Joe Smith is the only guy with minor-league options, so I will be stunned if he's not pitching in New Orleans next week. It's nothing more than a numbers game - and it's looking like another loss for the Mets.
Monday, April 21, 2008
The Facts Are Indisputable
Aaron Heilman has pitched in 11 of the Mets first 17 games. This is too many appearances.
Met relievers pitched 59.1 innings going into tonight’s game. 12 of those innings have been pitched by Heilman – just over 20 percent of all reliever innings. This is too many innings for a guy with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP.
Heilman is on pace for 108 appearances and 114.3 innings pitched. That is far too much work for a reliever, especially in a seven-man bullpen.
Jorge Sosa has a career WHIP vs. lefties of 1.76. His stat line against lefties are .296/.384/.507. In comparison, those same numbers against righties show a 1.20 WHIP and a .230/.296/.373 stat line. Jorge Sosa should not be allowed to pitch to left-handed batters, especially in important situations.
In the eighth inning of a 2-1 game, Willie Randolph brought in Aaron Heilman to pitch. Again. Heilman was ineffective. Again. The Jose Reyes error was bad luck – hitting a batter and giving up two singles was bad pitching.
With the score now 4-1 and two outs with two runners still on base, Felix Pie came to the plate. He is a left-handed batter. Willie Randolph brought in Jorge Sosa to get the final out of the inning. Sosa got the final out – after giving up a three-run home run to Pie. Sosa failed to get out the left-handed batter. Again.
There’s no point in ranting or raving tonight, dear reader. Either you get it or you do not. Willie Randolph, after over three years of managing this team, still does not get it.
Met relievers pitched 59.1 innings going into tonight’s game. 12 of those innings have been pitched by Heilman – just over 20 percent of all reliever innings. This is too many innings for a guy with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.333 WHIP.
Heilman is on pace for 108 appearances and 114.3 innings pitched. That is far too much work for a reliever, especially in a seven-man bullpen.
Jorge Sosa has a career WHIP vs. lefties of 1.76. His stat line against lefties are .296/.384/.507. In comparison, those same numbers against righties show a 1.20 WHIP and a .230/.296/.373 stat line. Jorge Sosa should not be allowed to pitch to left-handed batters, especially in important situations.
In the eighth inning of a 2-1 game, Willie Randolph brought in Aaron Heilman to pitch. Again. Heilman was ineffective. Again. The Jose Reyes error was bad luck – hitting a batter and giving up two singles was bad pitching.
With the score now 4-1 and two outs with two runners still on base, Felix Pie came to the plate. He is a left-handed batter. Willie Randolph brought in Jorge Sosa to get the final out of the inning. Sosa got the final out – after giving up a three-run home run to Pie. Sosa failed to get out the left-handed batter. Again.
There’s no point in ranting or raving tonight, dear reader. Either you get it or you do not. Willie Randolph, after over three years of managing this team, still does not get it.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
First Guessing: 4/20/08
I missed the game yesterday - my cable is out and I had personal business to attend to anyway. Apparently the game followed a pretty standard script for the 2008 season so far - the Mets won, Aaron Heilman made an appearance and Willie Randolph forgot to double switch.
The slow start has been forgotten with the current five-game winning streak, leaving the Mets atop the NL East at 10-6 with a magic number of just 146. Heilman has been mostly terrible so far, but his 11th appearance in the team's first 16 games was mostly a successful one. Called on to get out of a jam created by Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano, Heilman gave up an RBI single before striking out Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth to end the inning.
And then the lost double-switch. With two outs and two on in the bottom of the sixth inning, Willie yanked Perez for Duaner Sanchez. With the pitcher's spot due up third in that inning, double switching would've given Willie an opportunity to get a little more length out of Sanchez. (But apparently getting length from relievers isn't as important though, eh Willie?) The double switch might've set up a situation where Heilman - who has been used like Mike Marshall so far this season - had a better chance at getting a day off.
Angel Pagan had made the final out of the sixth, setting up the perfect opportunity to put the pitcher in the sixth spot and put Endy Chavez in the #9 hole. Doing so would've improved the outfield defense, for starters, and would've removed the necessity to use a pinch-hitter in the seventh. By the time the sixth spot in the order came around again, it almost certainly would've necessitated a pinch-hitting appearance anyway - it just would've come at a more opportune time for the Mets.
Willie did not double switch, and although the Reyes home run that inning extended the lead to 4-0, the Mets still ended up using five relievers to nail down the final three innings. Perhaps not the most optimal use of bullpen arms?
Anyway, after the Reyes home run T-Bone left me a message, the exact contents of which are too profane for publication in a family blog. (Actually, it was a just a really long message that I don't want to bother transcribing, but the raw emotion was amusing enough to store with my saved messages.) The general message, however, was that Willie's tactical ineptitude was being overcome by the talent of his players once again. The missed opportunity will go down as just one more footnote in a long season, but there are plenty of people still taking notice.
The slow start has been forgotten with the current five-game winning streak, leaving the Mets atop the NL East at 10-6 with a magic number of just 146. Heilman has been mostly terrible so far, but his 11th appearance in the team's first 16 games was mostly a successful one. Called on to get out of a jam created by Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano, Heilman gave up an RBI single before striking out Geoff Jenkins and Jayson Werth to end the inning.
And then the lost double-switch. With two outs and two on in the bottom of the sixth inning, Willie yanked Perez for Duaner Sanchez. With the pitcher's spot due up third in that inning, double switching would've given Willie an opportunity to get a little more length out of Sanchez. (But apparently getting length from relievers isn't as important though, eh Willie?) The double switch might've set up a situation where Heilman - who has been used like Mike Marshall so far this season - had a better chance at getting a day off.
Angel Pagan had made the final out of the sixth, setting up the perfect opportunity to put the pitcher in the sixth spot and put Endy Chavez in the #9 hole. Doing so would've improved the outfield defense, for starters, and would've removed the necessity to use a pinch-hitter in the seventh. By the time the sixth spot in the order came around again, it almost certainly would've necessitated a pinch-hitting appearance anyway - it just would've come at a more opportune time for the Mets.
Willie did not double switch, and although the Reyes home run that inning extended the lead to 4-0, the Mets still ended up using five relievers to nail down the final three innings. Perhaps not the most optimal use of bullpen arms?
Anyway, after the Reyes home run T-Bone left me a message, the exact contents of which are too profane for publication in a family blog. (Actually, it was a just a really long message that I don't want to bother transcribing, but the raw emotion was amusing enough to store with my saved messages.) The general message, however, was that Willie's tactical ineptitude was being overcome by the talent of his players once again. The missed opportunity will go down as just one more footnote in a long season, but there are plenty of people still taking notice.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Goddamn Willie Randolph!
I've already introduced you to the "Stupid Decisions" portion of the blog - now I'd like to introduce you to one of the other recurring segments you can expect to enjoy. I call this segment "Goddamn Willie Randolph," because Willie often says and does things that cause me to angrily exclaim "Goddamn Willie Randolph!!"
Oliver Perez was doing fine through five innings yesterday - having given up just three hits and a walk and keeping the Phillies off the scoreboard. Perez wasn't quite dominant, having also plunked Chase Utley twice, but his pitch count was only at 75 and there was no reason in the world to think about taking him out.
Oliver Perez was doing fine through five innings yesterday - having given up just three hits and a walk and keeping the Phillies off the scoreboard. Perez wasn't quite dominant, having also plunked Chase Utley twice, but his pitch count was only at 75 and there was no reason in the world to think about taking him out.
Perez got the first two outs in the sixth, getting Utley and Ryan Howard to pop up. An eight-pitch walk to Pat Burrell was followed by a balk, a wild pitch and a walk to Jayson Werth. Perez was frustrated at this point, and it was clear he needed to calm himself down and take control of the situation, or else he was going to squander the 2-0 lead the Mets had built for him.
Luckily, Pedro Feliz - one of the worst hitters in baseball - was striding to the plate. Feliz has spent parts of seven seasons in the majors and has only put up an OBP over .300 once. He has been slightly more successful against lefties throughout his career, but that's like saying I'm better when I arm-wrestle with my left arm instead of my right. Either way, I'm probably going to lose.
Unluckily, Willie Randolph was managing the Mets yesterday. Willie took the ball from Perez, robbing him of the chance to work out of adversity and continue in the game, and turned it over to Joe Smith, who walked Feliz (!) before retiring Carlos Ruiz to end the threat. Shenanigans ensued in the seventh and eighth inning, and the Mets were losers again.
I was already annoyed that Willie pulled Perez from the game in that spot. A free swinger like Feliz is an easy mark - this was a perfect opportunity to test Perez to see if he could overcome an adverse situation and take the next step in his professional development. Ollie is going to be a free agent after this season and is looking for a big multi-year deal; I would like to see if he has the potential to be a staff ace or if he's always going to be an erratic #3 starter who can't be counted on after the fifth inning. The only way to find that out is to let a starter pitch out of his own jams once in a while, instead of babying him and sending him to the clubhouse at the first sign of late-inning trouble.
But Willie Randolph has made it painfully clear to even the most casual observer that he is not a very creative manager. Perez had thrown 20 pitches that inning and was therefore nearing the dreaded 100-pitch mark - also known as the point where "conventional wisdom" dictates that any additional pitches thrown will cause a starting pitcher's arm to explode like an M-80 inside a watermelon. Willie also had seven options in the bullpen and he likes to keep them from getting rusty. So instead of using fewer relievers more often (a six-man bullpen), he opts to choose more relievers less often (a seven-man bullpen), even if it makes more sense to leave the starter in.
The result? Out comes Perez, in comes the bullpen, good-bye goes the game.
This would've been the end of it; just one more mistake by one of the worst tactical managers I've ever seen. But then Willie decided to pop off about his starters not going deep enough into games and infuriated me all over again.
From the article: "(Perez) got his pitch count up, he was a little erratic," Willie Randolph said. "All our starters are going to have to give us a little more length than that."
Earth to Willie - YOU'RE the manager!! YOU decide how much "length" a starting pitcher gives you!! If you had left Perez in the game, there was still a good chance that he would've gotten the third out and been ready to pitch in seventh. Even if he started the next inning with 100 pitches under his belt, the Phillies had the bottom of the order coming up. Let Perez pitch to Carlos Ruiz and take him out after the Phillies announce a pinch-hitter.
If all goes well, Perez exits with 6 1/3 innings under his belt, only 105 pitches or so thrown and the satisfaction of knowing he got himself out of the biggest jam of the game at that point. Worst case scenario - Feliz hits a three-run homer, the Mets are down a run with four more chances to tie the game and you're going to the bullpen anyway. You also learn something about Perez - that he still hasn't shown a propensity to control his emotions and to get a critical out in a big situation. That's the kind of thing you want to know about a guy before investing 5 years and $75 million in him.
But no. Willie saw the looming 100-pitch mark and decided he had to take out his starter - because every single starting pitcher in baseball reaches the limit of their endurance AT THE EXACT SAME POINT. Then he actually has the nerve to take a shot at his starter - who hasn't given up a run in either of his two outings this season - and complains that he didn't pitch deep enough into the game.
When Willie has to make a managerial decision, it's a lot like the old joke about flipping a coin - if it's heads, then Willie was right. If it's tails, then you were wrong. Personal accountability never even enters the equation.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Roster Move: Martinez Placed on 15-Day DL
Pedro Martinez's hamstring injury will keep him out for four to six weeks, and the Mets responded by recalling Nelson Figueroa to the big club. The move means the Mets have eight relievers in the bullpen until April 12 - the first time they'll need to use a "fifth" starter.
This move is, to put it mildly, asinine. Willie has only five bench players at his disposal, but now he has eight relievers to under-utilize for the next 10 days. There's a crying need for a sixth infielder - I never thought I'd be pining for Fernando Tatis! - but that need is seemingly being ignored. I guess I should take comfort in the idea that Pedro's spot in the rotation is being skipped this time around, because at least someone recognizes that off-days can be used to your advantage when setting a pitching rotation. But as usual, I find myself questioning the logic of the decision-makers in charge of this team.
Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano
Matt Wise
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Nelson Figueroa
This move is, to put it mildly, asinine. Willie has only five bench players at his disposal, but now he has eight relievers to under-utilize for the next 10 days. There's a crying need for a sixth infielder - I never thought I'd be pining for Fernando Tatis! - but that need is seemingly being ignored. I guess I should take comfort in the idea that Pedro's spot in the rotation is being skipped this time around, because at least someone recognizes that off-days can be used to your advantage when setting a pitching rotation. But as usual, I find myself questioning the logic of the decision-makers in charge of this team.
Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Aaron Heilman
Pedro Feliciano
Matt Wise
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Nelson Figueroa
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Brady Clark
Moises Alou-DL
Four-Man Rotation?
David Lennon of Newsday had a small piece on the website today claiming that the Mets are considering a four-man rotation in Pedro Martinez's absence. It's a great idea, for as long as the schedule allows it.
I'm a big proponent of limiting the amount of appearances the fifth starter makes throughout the season by making more judicious use of off-days. I'd go so far as to advocate that teams building their roster each season should be more concerned with locking in the first four guys in the rotation and allowing for an annual open competition for the fifth starter's role. Then, until the winner of the competition proves that he belongs in the "real" rotation, he can shuttle between a starter and a long reliever role.
Anyway, if they wanted to, the Mets could go without a fifth starter until April 12 while keeping everyone on "full" rest (four days between starts).
4/2: Perez
4/3: OFF DAY
4/4: Maine
4/5: Pelfrey
4/6: Santana
4/7: OFF DAY
4/8: Perez
4/9: Maine
4/10: Pelfrey
4/11: Santana
However, if the Mets stay creative, they can instead give a spot start to Jorge Sosa and turn the rotation over for another seven days. Sosa would likely need to be kept out of action after April 8 to prepare for the start, leaving the Mets with a *gasp!* six man bullpen for a few days. Yes. he'd probably limited to 5 innings or 75-85 pitches, whatever comes first. But by spot-starting Sosa, look at the way the rest of the rotation falls in line:
4/12: Sosa
4/13: Perez
4/14: OFF DAY
4/15: Maine
4/16: Pelfrey
4/17: Santana
4/18: Perez
This gets us all the way to April 19 against the Phillies, at which point the Mets would need to begin employing another starter to round out the rotation - the next off-day isn't until May 1. Like I said, Sosa could just step into the breach for a couple of weeks, but most teams aren't willing to employ a six-man bullpen for any length of time anymore.
This scenario allows the Mets to avoid calling up a starter and instead allows them the opportunity to add a badly-needed sixth infielder to the roster. Right now, Damion Easley is the backup at four positions - which is more than just a little silly. Recalling Fernando Tatis adds a corner infielder to back up Wright and a platoon partner for Delgado.
Now I am admittedly ignorant of DL rules, so I'm not sure if the Mets would have to keep Tatis on the roster until Pedro returns. However, I believe he could be sent back to New Orleans on April 19 and Figueroa could be recalled to begin making starts in Pedro's spot in the rotation. If not, the Mets could simply option/release Brady Clark to make room for the replacement starter. Keeping Tatis on the roster at the expense of Clark makes perfect sense - right now the Mets are suffering from an unusual alignment of five infielders and six outfielders.
We'll see how it all works out. I do hope the Mets will be creative here and find a way to make this injury work to their advantage.
UPDATE: Creativity is in short supply around Shea Stadium.
From the article: "While manager Willie Randolph didn't say who might start in Martinez's stead, he did say who wouldn't -- Jorge Sosa. A person in the organization had characterized Sosa as the most logical choice Wednesday morning because he is a considerably stronger and more competitive pitcher than Figueroa and because he was ideally placed to take Martinez's spot ...
I'm a big proponent of limiting the amount of appearances the fifth starter makes throughout the season by making more judicious use of off-days. I'd go so far as to advocate that teams building their roster each season should be more concerned with locking in the first four guys in the rotation and allowing for an annual open competition for the fifth starter's role. Then, until the winner of the competition proves that he belongs in the "real" rotation, he can shuttle between a starter and a long reliever role.
Anyway, if they wanted to, the Mets could go without a fifth starter until April 12 while keeping everyone on "full" rest (four days between starts).
4/2: Perez
4/3: OFF DAY
4/4: Maine
4/5: Pelfrey
4/6: Santana
4/7: OFF DAY
4/8: Perez
4/9: Maine
4/10: Pelfrey
4/11: Santana
However, if the Mets stay creative, they can instead give a spot start to Jorge Sosa and turn the rotation over for another seven days. Sosa would likely need to be kept out of action after April 8 to prepare for the start, leaving the Mets with a *gasp!* six man bullpen for a few days. Yes. he'd probably limited to 5 innings or 75-85 pitches, whatever comes first. But by spot-starting Sosa, look at the way the rest of the rotation falls in line:
4/12: Sosa
4/13: Perez
4/14: OFF DAY
4/15: Maine
4/16: Pelfrey
4/17: Santana
4/18: Perez
This gets us all the way to April 19 against the Phillies, at which point the Mets would need to begin employing another starter to round out the rotation - the next off-day isn't until May 1. Like I said, Sosa could just step into the breach for a couple of weeks, but most teams aren't willing to employ a six-man bullpen for any length of time anymore.
This scenario allows the Mets to avoid calling up a starter and instead allows them the opportunity to add a badly-needed sixth infielder to the roster. Right now, Damion Easley is the backup at four positions - which is more than just a little silly. Recalling Fernando Tatis adds a corner infielder to back up Wright and a platoon partner for Delgado.
Now I am admittedly ignorant of DL rules, so I'm not sure if the Mets would have to keep Tatis on the roster until Pedro returns. However, I believe he could be sent back to New Orleans on April 19 and Figueroa could be recalled to begin making starts in Pedro's spot in the rotation. If not, the Mets could simply option/release Brady Clark to make room for the replacement starter. Keeping Tatis on the roster at the expense of Clark makes perfect sense - right now the Mets are suffering from an unusual alignment of five infielders and six outfielders.
We'll see how it all works out. I do hope the Mets will be creative here and find a way to make this injury work to their advantage.
UPDATE: Creativity is in short supply around Shea Stadium.
From the article: "While manager Willie Randolph didn't say who might start in Martinez's stead, he did say who wouldn't -- Jorge Sosa. A person in the organization had characterized Sosa as the most logical choice Wednesday morning because he is a considerably stronger and more competitive pitcher than Figueroa and because he was ideally placed to take Martinez's spot ...
But Randolph indicated he preferred not to upset the balance in the bullpen personnel by removing Sosa. Now, of the eight pitchers not in the rotation, Figueroa is the most likely to start. But Randolph said he had no person in mind because a need for the starter doesn't arise until April 12."
So if you don't need a starter for another ten days, why is Nelson Figueroa here?Tuesday, April 1, 2008
First Guessing: 4/1/08
* Tough break for Matt Wise, who looked great against the first two batters in the tenth inning before getting absolutely tattooed by Robert Andino's game-winning home run. I thought the first two pitches of the at-bat pounded the bottom of the strike zone, but the ump called both of them balls. Wise was forced to work higher in the zone as a result. He threw the home run pitch in almost the exact same spot as the 2-0 pitch; you almost never get away with throwing the same pitch in the same place twice.
* In the season opener, Willie used three pitchers to get through the eighth and failed to double switch at any point, forcing him to use a fourth reliever in the ninth inning of a 7-2 game. Tonight, he uses Marlon Anderson to pinch-hit in the eighth inning against a left-handed pitcher. One night he shows an inability to manage basic National League strategy; the next night he shows a fundamental lack of understanding of lefty-lefty matchups. Say this for Willie - he never gives you a reason to change your opinion of him ...
* Who had April 1 in the Pedro Martinez injury pool? If this hamstring pull is as bad as Endy Chavez's was last season, Pedro won't be back until the All-Star Break.
* In the season opener, Willie used three pitchers to get through the eighth and failed to double switch at any point, forcing him to use a fourth reliever in the ninth inning of a 7-2 game. Tonight, he uses Marlon Anderson to pinch-hit in the eighth inning against a left-handed pitcher. One night he shows an inability to manage basic National League strategy; the next night he shows a fundamental lack of understanding of lefty-lefty matchups. Say this for Willie - he never gives you a reason to change your opinion of him ...
* Who had April 1 in the Pedro Martinez injury pool? If this hamstring pull is as bad as Endy Chavez's was last season, Pedro won't be back until the All-Star Break.
Monday, March 31, 2008
25-Man Roster Analysis, Part 2
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
In yet another example of this organization's screwed-up priorities and abiding affinity for proven veterans, the guy who should be the #1 catcher is starting the season on the DL and will return as a backup.
Omar Minaya is under the impresion that Brian Schneider is good enough to be the starting catcher on a major league baseball team. He is mistaken. Schenider can't hit and his ability to control the running game has deteriorated over the past two seasons. He better call a damn good game every time out, otherwise he is one of the more useless players in MLB. Never has the failure of a team to complete a low-level free-agent signing led to such disatrous consequences.
Ramon Castro will still probably end up catching 50 to 60 games this season. He is a much better hitter than Schneider and at least equally adept at cutting down stolen bases, which still doesn't make him even one of the 20 best catchers in the league. Let's not go too crazy over Destro - he's not exactly the next Victor Martinez.
Raul Casanova is the type of guy I always end up with the blind pick at the trading deadline in my Strat-o-Matic. That is to say that Casanova is the type of player who sucks and will never make a positive impact on his team.
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
No, I didn't forget anyone. The Mets have only five infielders on the roster right now - the consequences of selecting Brady Clark over Fernando Tatis for the final poisition player spot. To say this is a ridiculous state of affairs is an understatement; Damion Easley can't actually field any of the positions he's supposed to be backing up at and isn't much of a hitter to boot. Will anyone be surprised if he puts up a .220/.300/.370 line this season?
Anyway, Carlos Delgado is mercifully entering the final year of his contract - and the Mets are only on the hook for another $20 million! Delgado came to the Mets under the worst of circumstances; one year after spurning the Mets on the free agent market to sign with the Marlins, Florida wisely turned around and dealt him back to Flushing for three prospects. Delgado put up an OPS+ of 161 in his first and only season in Miami and was quite a bargain in the process, making only $4 million in the first season of the back-loaded contract.
Delgado has been underperforming his career numbers ever since being traded to New York and badly faltered last season. Mike Jacobs, one of the three players the Marlins received for, was only slightly worse offensively (103 OPS+ for Delgado, compared to 100 OPS+ for Jacobs) and did so for $14 million less. Simply put, the trade has been a disaster and is not likely to look better in 2008. At this point, the Mets just have to hope Delgado doesn't regress even further; a line of .265/.330/.460 with 25 homers would be acceptable, as long as Carlos can play 150 games.
Luis Castillo is 32 years old, his knees are shot, his speed is disappearing and he has absolutely no extra-base power. At this point, he is little more than a slap-hitting glove man - think Ozzie Smith's best seasons without the stolen base totals and the otherworldly defense. This is a player that most teams would know better than to give a long-term commitment to, especially if they have cheaper second base options in their system (see Gotay, Ruben). The Mets, of course, saw things differently.
This actually isn't a terrible deal. It only takes Castillo through his Age-35 season and he's pretty likely to put up a string of .290/.360/370 seasons through the length of the contract. He's still above average in the field and can probably sneak out 20 stolen bases. They're overpaying, to be sure, but the Mets had no other answers save Gotay and Castillo fits the role of the prototypical #2 hitter very well.
What can I say about David Wright that would provide you a new and unique perspective on him? He's a superstar, period. He's going to put up terrific offensive seasons for the next 10 to 15 years, will hopefully retire as a Met and may be the last person in franchise history to wear #5. High-end projections would include a 30-30 season and a .330/.425/.590 line; even worst-case scenarios would suggest 20 home runs and a .290/.375/.500 line.
Jose Reyes will either become a superstar, or he will become Juan Samuel. The ever-increasing walk rate (27 to 77 in just three seasons) is the most promising indicator that he will avoid the Samuel career path. He's never going to hit like Hanley Ramirez did in 2007, but Reyes' defense is light years ahead of Ramirez and his range is among the best in the game at his position, so a solid argument can be made in favor of Jose over Hanley. I think that he could put up a string of offensive seasons reminiscent of a late-1980s Rickey Henderson.
Damion Easley should not be backing up all four infield positions on a Major League Baseball team. An injury to Delgado, Wright or Reyes would be extremely catastrophic as the Mets lack any semblance of a credible major leaguer to replace them.
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Brady Clark
Moises Alou-DL
Who knows how many games Moises Alou will play this season? He'll smack the cover off the ball whenever he's healthy, though, and if the Mets can keep him standing long enough to play October baseball, they will be extremely tough to beat in a playoff series. For now, Spring Training phenom Angel Pagan will man left field until Alou can return; he'll be ready for release by June 1, because he is a terrible baseball player.
Carlos Beltran has devolved from the five-tool talent we were promised in 2004 to something resembling Andruw Jones. He's a nice cleanup hitter and a terrific center fielder with the glove, but he's not a leader in the clubhouse and he's not worth $18.5 milion for each of the next four years.
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
In yet another example of this organization's screwed-up priorities and abiding affinity for proven veterans, the guy who should be the #1 catcher is starting the season on the DL and will return as a backup.
Omar Minaya is under the impresion that Brian Schneider is good enough to be the starting catcher on a major league baseball team. He is mistaken. Schenider can't hit and his ability to control the running game has deteriorated over the past two seasons. He better call a damn good game every time out, otherwise he is one of the more useless players in MLB. Never has the failure of a team to complete a low-level free-agent signing led to such disatrous consequences.
Ramon Castro will still probably end up catching 50 to 60 games this season. He is a much better hitter than Schneider and at least equally adept at cutting down stolen bases, which still doesn't make him even one of the 20 best catchers in the league. Let's not go too crazy over Destro - he's not exactly the next Victor Martinez.
Raul Casanova is the type of guy I always end up with the blind pick at the trading deadline in my Strat-o-Matic. That is to say that Casanova is the type of player who sucks and will never make a positive impact on his team.
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
No, I didn't forget anyone. The Mets have only five infielders on the roster right now - the consequences of selecting Brady Clark over Fernando Tatis for the final poisition player spot. To say this is a ridiculous state of affairs is an understatement; Damion Easley can't actually field any of the positions he's supposed to be backing up at and isn't much of a hitter to boot. Will anyone be surprised if he puts up a .220/.300/.370 line this season?
Anyway, Carlos Delgado is mercifully entering the final year of his contract - and the Mets are only on the hook for another $20 million! Delgado came to the Mets under the worst of circumstances; one year after spurning the Mets on the free agent market to sign with the Marlins, Florida wisely turned around and dealt him back to Flushing for three prospects. Delgado put up an OPS+ of 161 in his first and only season in Miami and was quite a bargain in the process, making only $4 million in the first season of the back-loaded contract.
Delgado has been underperforming his career numbers ever since being traded to New York and badly faltered last season. Mike Jacobs, one of the three players the Marlins received for, was only slightly worse offensively (103 OPS+ for Delgado, compared to 100 OPS+ for Jacobs) and did so for $14 million less. Simply put, the trade has been a disaster and is not likely to look better in 2008. At this point, the Mets just have to hope Delgado doesn't regress even further; a line of .265/.330/.460 with 25 homers would be acceptable, as long as Carlos can play 150 games.
Luis Castillo is 32 years old, his knees are shot, his speed is disappearing and he has absolutely no extra-base power. At this point, he is little more than a slap-hitting glove man - think Ozzie Smith's best seasons without the stolen base totals and the otherworldly defense. This is a player that most teams would know better than to give a long-term commitment to, especially if they have cheaper second base options in their system (see Gotay, Ruben). The Mets, of course, saw things differently.
This actually isn't a terrible deal. It only takes Castillo through his Age-35 season and he's pretty likely to put up a string of .290/.360/370 seasons through the length of the contract. He's still above average in the field and can probably sneak out 20 stolen bases. They're overpaying, to be sure, but the Mets had no other answers save Gotay and Castillo fits the role of the prototypical #2 hitter very well.
What can I say about David Wright that would provide you a new and unique perspective on him? He's a superstar, period. He's going to put up terrific offensive seasons for the next 10 to 15 years, will hopefully retire as a Met and may be the last person in franchise history to wear #5. High-end projections would include a 30-30 season and a .330/.425/.590 line; even worst-case scenarios would suggest 20 home runs and a .290/.375/.500 line.
Jose Reyes will either become a superstar, or he will become Juan Samuel. The ever-increasing walk rate (27 to 77 in just three seasons) is the most promising indicator that he will avoid the Samuel career path. He's never going to hit like Hanley Ramirez did in 2007, but Reyes' defense is light years ahead of Ramirez and his range is among the best in the game at his position, so a solid argument can be made in favor of Jose over Hanley. I think that he could put up a string of offensive seasons reminiscent of a late-1980s Rickey Henderson.
Damion Easley should not be backing up all four infield positions on a Major League Baseball team. An injury to Delgado, Wright or Reyes would be extremely catastrophic as the Mets lack any semblance of a credible major leaguer to replace them.
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Brady Clark
Moises Alou-DL
Who knows how many games Moises Alou will play this season? He'll smack the cover off the ball whenever he's healthy, though, and if the Mets can keep him standing long enough to play October baseball, they will be extremely tough to beat in a playoff series. For now, Spring Training phenom Angel Pagan will man left field until Alou can return; he'll be ready for release by June 1, because he is a terrible baseball player.
Carlos Beltran has devolved from the five-tool talent we were promised in 2004 to something resembling Andruw Jones. He's a nice cleanup hitter and a terrific center fielder with the glove, but he's not a leader in the clubhouse and he's not worth $18.5 milion for each of the next four years.
As distraught as I am to lose Lastings Milledge, I like Ryan Church. He's a decent outfielder who can play all three positions and is a pretty good hitter to boot. If he can shore up his performance against lefties, Church has the potential to be a very good #6 hitter - I'm thinking Kevin McReynolds with a few more doubles and a few less home runs.
The Mets really should have a right-handed bat on the roster who can serve as a platoon partner for Church. Instead, the Mets have Pagan and Brady Clark. Sigh.
Endy Chavez is an excellent fifth outfielder, because like Church he plays all three outfield positions. Chavez, however, can steal 30 bases and excels in the field - the fact that he can't hit much is exposed whenever he gets extended playing time. Limit him to 250 at-bats and lots of appearances as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, and everyone will be happy.
Summing Up: The first four batters in the lineup (Reyes, Castillo, Wright and Beltran) can stake a claim for being the best quartet in the National League. Castillo is ultimately a below-average hitter, but fits the lineup well because Willie Randolph will only ask him to do the tasks associated with prototypical #2 hitters. (There's that phrase again; I'm going to be addressing it soon enough.)
Alou is still dangerous when healthy, but Delgado's reputation is more dangerous than his bat. Church and Schneider will round out the everyday lineup; Church will hit, Schneider will not. Moises really is the key to the offense, because when he's healthy he makes the Mets a very difficult lineup to contend with. Replace him with Chavez or Pagan and you've got the potential to get five straight outs every time Beltran completes his at-bat.
By the way, the sooner the Mets release Clark and sign a right-handed 3B/1B who can spell Delgado against lefties, the better.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Stupid Decisions, Part 1
Welcome to the segment of my new blog that I like to call "Stupid Decisions." These segments will be dedicated to all the times the Mets do something stupid to piss me off, which invariably leads me to question how much longer I can remain a fan of this team.
I wrote about the dumb decision to release Ruben Gotay late last night and I had made my peace with it as best as I possibly could. So I get home from work today and just as I'm about to make some dinner when Joe calls me with the latest news: Gotay is going to be practicing his tomahawk chop this year.
Well, that's just terrific. It took the Braves less than 24 hours to swoop in and sign a guy who was actually in tears about the idea of having to leave the Mets, and to disprove the old adage that "you can't get something for nothing." The Mets didn't attempt to work out a deal with the Braves - hell, as far as I can tell they didn't attempt to work out a deal with any team in the league. They just let Gotay go, 72 hours before the final rosters were due, and ended up handing him to Atlanta for nothing.
Joe put it very well. "Jack," he asked me, "if any other team in the league had Ruben Gotay, and the Mets offered them Fernando Tatis in a trade, do you think they would do it? And we kept Tatis, and gave away Gotay!"
So let's recap: our hated division rivals just filled one of the last holes on their roster by grabbing a 25-year-old infielder who can play three positions and who just came off a season where he nearly hit .300 - all at the expense of the Mets! Bold prediction: Gotay and Lastings Milledge combine for 10 home runs against the Mets in 2008.
I wrote about the dumb decision to release Ruben Gotay late last night and I had made my peace with it as best as I possibly could. So I get home from work today and just as I'm about to make some dinner when Joe calls me with the latest news: Gotay is going to be practicing his tomahawk chop this year.
Well, that's just terrific. It took the Braves less than 24 hours to swoop in and sign a guy who was actually in tears about the idea of having to leave the Mets, and to disprove the old adage that "you can't get something for nothing." The Mets didn't attempt to work out a deal with the Braves - hell, as far as I can tell they didn't attempt to work out a deal with any team in the league. They just let Gotay go, 72 hours before the final rosters were due, and ended up handing him to Atlanta for nothing.
Joe put it very well. "Jack," he asked me, "if any other team in the league had Ruben Gotay, and the Mets offered them Fernando Tatis in a trade, do you think they would do it? And we kept Tatis, and gave away Gotay!"
So let's recap: our hated division rivals just filled one of the last holes on their roster by grabbing a 25-year-old infielder who can play three positions and who just came off a season where he nearly hit .300 - all at the expense of the Mets! Bold prediction: Gotay and Lastings Milledge combine for 10 home runs against the Mets in 2008.
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