Jeremy Reed just ended Marlon Anderson's Mets career.
It's not official yet, but someone has to go to make room for fifth starter Livan Hernandez, who gets the ball on Saturday evening. Reed's ninth-inning game-tying single off Matt Lindstrom has to be enough to convince Jerry Manuel that he can send players other than Anderson up to pinch-hit and get positive results.
Anderson's ostensible value to the Mets was as the primary left-handed handed pinch-hitter - a role he has not played well since a 70 at-bat run with the Mets in 2007. Omar Minaya handed Anderson a two-year contract that off-season; I've actually run out of ways to call the decision a stupid.
Now, 24 players on the Mets roster have a specific role - the other guy is Marlon Anderson. Gary Sheffield's signing means that one aging vet will be replacing another, but Sheffield is a better fit for the Mets than Anderson is.
Friday, April 10, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
2009 Opening Day Roster
My loyal readers know how much I enjoy roster analysis, so even though we are already one game into the season I wanted to take a minute to talk about the team that the Mets broke camp with.
For the most part, it is a surprisingly well-constructed roster to start the season. I would've liked to have seen a second left-hander in the bullpen instead of Bobby Parnell, who I simply do not believe in yet. That said, if it makes Jerry Manuel more likely to simply rely on his best relievers and less likely to become obsessed with platoon matchups, I think it's worth considering for now.
I liked the Gary Sheffield signing as a low-risk investment, but the key will be how Omar Minaya makes room for Livan Hernandez, who will be the fifth starter and will take the mound on Saturday. Minaya absolutely must release Marlon Anderson for this signing to make any sense at all. Anderson has no place on this team - he can't hit, he can't field and he can't run. Modern teams simply do not have room for Manny Mota-type pinch hitters, and Marlon Anderson is no Manny Mota.
Pitching is still a question mark, in my opinion. Johan Santana will be an ace, but can anyone say with confidence that Mike Pelfrey will not regress, that Oliver Perez and John Maine won't remain inconsistent and that Hernandez will not be awful? I can't - and the Mets will not survive in the National League unless three of those four live up to expectations.
The bullpen seems to be built entirely and hopes and dreams. If Francisco Rodriguez's decreasing strikeout rate and increasing WHIP isn't a sign of trouble ... if JJ Putz is fully healed from last season's injury and rediscovers past success ... if Sean Green and Brian Stokes learn how to get out left-handers ... if Pedro Feliciano remembers how to get out right-handers ... if Parnell out-performs every expectation that his entire minor-league track record would give you ... if Darren O'Day's rotator cuff doesn't completely tear ...
If all of these go right, you have a 100-win team. If they all go wrong, you have an 80-win team. I'm predicting an 87-75 record, which should indicate my confidence in the bullpen right now.
There are fewer questions among the position players. David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes will hit, because that's what they do. I think that Daniel Murphy will too, although I think he's more Rusty Greer and less Don Mattingly or Wade Boggs (two players I heard him compared to this week). Either Ryan Church or Luis Castillo will put up good numbers - and if they both do this lineup has the chance to be very potent.
The key is Carlos Delgado. I just don't see another 38 home runs from that aging bat, but the Mets don't need that to succeed. They need .265/.350/.470 and 25 to 30 home runs to be successful - and they need Delgado to be consistent for six months. Another season where he's clueless at the plate until July 1 will be disastrous.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Darren O'Day
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Marlon Anderson
For the most part, it is a surprisingly well-constructed roster to start the season. I would've liked to have seen a second left-hander in the bullpen instead of Bobby Parnell, who I simply do not believe in yet. That said, if it makes Jerry Manuel more likely to simply rely on his best relievers and less likely to become obsessed with platoon matchups, I think it's worth considering for now.
I liked the Gary Sheffield signing as a low-risk investment, but the key will be how Omar Minaya makes room for Livan Hernandez, who will be the fifth starter and will take the mound on Saturday. Minaya absolutely must release Marlon Anderson for this signing to make any sense at all. Anderson has no place on this team - he can't hit, he can't field and he can't run. Modern teams simply do not have room for Manny Mota-type pinch hitters, and Marlon Anderson is no Manny Mota.
Pitching is still a question mark, in my opinion. Johan Santana will be an ace, but can anyone say with confidence that Mike Pelfrey will not regress, that Oliver Perez and John Maine won't remain inconsistent and that Hernandez will not be awful? I can't - and the Mets will not survive in the National League unless three of those four live up to expectations.
The bullpen seems to be built entirely and hopes and dreams. If Francisco Rodriguez's decreasing strikeout rate and increasing WHIP isn't a sign of trouble ... if JJ Putz is fully healed from last season's injury and rediscovers past success ... if Sean Green and Brian Stokes learn how to get out left-handers ... if Pedro Feliciano remembers how to get out right-handers ... if Parnell out-performs every expectation that his entire minor-league track record would give you ... if Darren O'Day's rotator cuff doesn't completely tear ...
If all of these go right, you have a 100-win team. If they all go wrong, you have an 80-win team. I'm predicting an 87-75 record, which should indicate my confidence in the bullpen right now.
There are fewer questions among the position players. David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes will hit, because that's what they do. I think that Daniel Murphy will too, although I think he's more Rusty Greer and less Don Mattingly or Wade Boggs (two players I heard him compared to this week). Either Ryan Church or Luis Castillo will put up good numbers - and if they both do this lineup has the chance to be very potent.
The key is Carlos Delgado. I just don't see another 38 home runs from that aging bat, but the Mets don't need that to succeed. They need .265/.350/.470 and 25 to 30 home runs to be successful - and they need Delgado to be consistent for six months. Another season where he's clueless at the plate until July 1 will be disastrous.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
Oliver Perez
John Maine
RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez (closer)
JJ Putz
Sean Green
Pedro Feliciano
Brian Stokes
Darren O'Day
Bobby Parnell
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Alex Cora
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Daniel Murphy
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Jeremy Reed
Gary Sheffield
Marlon Anderson
How Long Will Livan Last? (Flushing University)
Livan Hernandez won the competition for the fifth-starter job with the Mets this season. How long will he be able to hold onto his spot in the rotation? Read more here ...
Thursday, April 2, 2009
More on Thinking Outside the Box
It has to be said: Jerry Manuel wouldn't have needed to juggle the Mets' everyday lineup had his general manager provided him with a right-handed bat in the outfield, at second base or even behind the plate during the off-season.
Omar Minaya chose not to do that and instead left it to Manuel to fashion a lineup that wouldn't be completely exposed by left-handed starters and lefty specialists in late innings. The problem would've ideally been resolved by simply adding another right-handed position player; once that wasn't going to happen, it was up to the manager to resolve the problem.
Had Manuel chosen to abide by conventional wisdom (as his predecessors Art Howe and Willie Randolph were more likely to have done), the batting order would've had Luis Castillo second and some combination of Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Brian Schneider batting fifth through eighth. Randolph especially was fond of letting young players work their way up through the lineup (see David Wright's usage in 2005) and therefore would've been extremely unlikely to bat Murphy second.
Fastballs are generally considered the best pitch for hitters to drive, because they are not as reliant on break or movement as any other pitch to be successful. Whoever bats second in the Mets' lineup will see a lot of fastballs, with a dangerous base-stealer like Jose Reyes in front and an elite hitter like David Wright on deck.
In my opinion, rookie players still adjusting to big-league breaking balls will generally benefit from batting second early in their career, since pitchers can't always get away with feeding them a steady number of breaking balls. Batting Murphy second affords him more fastballs, which should presumably earn him more hits and will hopefully increase his confidence. Castillo may have benefitted from this type of protection as well, but he surely did not last season. Besides, Castillo's inability to hit the ball over an outfielder's head makes him ill-suited to bat so high in the order.
I happen to believe in the concept of lineup protection, although like God I cannot prove its existence. I know that other people do not believe in it, but (like athiests) I'm not confident in the methodology they've used to draw their conclusions either.
Omar Minaya chose not to do that and instead left it to Manuel to fashion a lineup that wouldn't be completely exposed by left-handed starters and lefty specialists in late innings. The problem would've ideally been resolved by simply adding another right-handed position player; once that wasn't going to happen, it was up to the manager to resolve the problem.
Had Manuel chosen to abide by conventional wisdom (as his predecessors Art Howe and Willie Randolph were more likely to have done), the batting order would've had Luis Castillo second and some combination of Carlos Delgado, Ryan Church, Daniel Murphy and Brian Schneider batting fifth through eighth. Randolph especially was fond of letting young players work their way up through the lineup (see David Wright's usage in 2005) and therefore would've been extremely unlikely to bat Murphy second.
Fastballs are generally considered the best pitch for hitters to drive, because they are not as reliant on break or movement as any other pitch to be successful. Whoever bats second in the Mets' lineup will see a lot of fastballs, with a dangerous base-stealer like Jose Reyes in front and an elite hitter like David Wright on deck.
In my opinion, rookie players still adjusting to big-league breaking balls will generally benefit from batting second early in their career, since pitchers can't always get away with feeding them a steady number of breaking balls. Batting Murphy second affords him more fastballs, which should presumably earn him more hits and will hopefully increase his confidence. Castillo may have benefitted from this type of protection as well, but he surely did not last season. Besides, Castillo's inability to hit the ball over an outfielder's head makes him ill-suited to bat so high in the order.
I happen to believe in the concept of lineup protection, although like God I cannot prove its existence. I know that other people do not believe in it, but (like athiests) I'm not confident in the methodology they've used to draw their conclusions either.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Thinking Outside the Box (Flushing University)
Jerry Manuel has brought a unique approach to constructing an everyday lineup in his first full season managing in New York. In doing so, he has neutralized one of the biggest concerns facing the Mets in 2009. Read more here ...
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