Jeremy Reed just ended Marlon Anderson's Mets career.
It's not official yet, but someone has to go to make room for fifth starter Livan Hernandez, who gets the ball on Saturday evening. Reed's ninth-inning game-tying single off Matt Lindstrom has to be enough to convince Jerry Manuel that he can send players other than Anderson up to pinch-hit and get positive results.
Anderson's ostensible value to the Mets was as the primary left-handed handed pinch-hitter - a role he has not played well since a 70 at-bat run with the Mets in 2007. Omar Minaya handed Anderson a two-year contract that off-season; I've actually run out of ways to call the decision a stupid.
Now, 24 players on the Mets roster have a specific role - the other guy is Marlon Anderson. Gary Sheffield's signing means that one aging vet will be replacing another, but Sheffield is a better fit for the Mets than Anderson is.
Showing posts with label Don't Trust Anyone Under 30. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Don't Trust Anyone Under 30. Show all posts
Friday, April 10, 2009
Saturday, February 14, 2009
I Give Up.
The Mets signed Livan Hernandez to a minor-league deal today. Best quote of the day?
Another voice said, "He gives us another right-handed bat off the bench."
How can I be expected to write intelligently about a baseball team that signs Livan Hernandez to a contract that will pay him money to play baseball at any level? Don't even get me started about offering ANOTHER minor-league contract to Jose Valentin.
Manny Ramirez remains unemployed. Orlando Hudson remains unemployed. Omar Minaya offers minor-league deals to the likes of Hernandez and Valentin and assures Mets fans that everything will be OK, because he added two new relievers to the bullpen. It's pathetic.
Another voice said, "He gives us another right-handed bat off the bench."
How can I be expected to write intelligently about a baseball team that signs Livan Hernandez to a contract that will pay him money to play baseball at any level? Don't even get me started about offering ANOTHER minor-league contract to Jose Valentin.
Manny Ramirez remains unemployed. Orlando Hudson remains unemployed. Omar Minaya offers minor-league deals to the likes of Hernandez and Valentin and assures Mets fans that everything will be OK, because he added two new relievers to the bullpen. It's pathetic.
Friday, November 28, 2008
Roster Move: Carp Added to 40-Man Roster
Mike Carp was the only minor-leaguer added to the Mets' 40-man roster last week, which will leave the club plenty of flexibility throughout the off-season for free agents or multi-player trades. I don't think Carp has the talent to be a major league player - and neither do the Mets, apparently, who left him in Double-A Binghamton while promoting Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans from there last season. Still, he hit pretty well in the lower levels of the minors before fashioning a very good 2008 campaign at the plate for the B-Mets, so he still qualifies as a prospect.
There are now six open spots on the 40-man roster, which also leaves room for a Rule V pick next month. For most teams, this can be a under-utilized way of completing a roster. If you're not one of the huge-market teams like the Mets, it makes perfect sense to take a flyer on a seventh reliever or a defensive backup for one season to see if he can develop into a legitimate player down the road.
Too many teams - even those with no hope of winning in 2009 - still insist on giving bloated one-year deals to "proven veterans" to round out the major-league club. It's a poor use of financial resources, at the expense of taking a risk that may lead to a handsome reward. Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria and Johan Santana are just a few of the Rule V players who have made it good in the last 10 years - why wouldn't a small-market team look at that and try to catch lightning in a bottle?
That said, this is one of the rare seasons where I think the Mets may legitimately be in a position to not even bother making a Rule V pick. After last year's bullpen woes, they cannot publicly afford to give a bullpen role to an untested minor leager unless he is absolutely dominant in Spring Training. Endy Chavez serves as the good-field, no-hit outfield backup and Argenis Reyes probably did enough last summer to have an inside track on the infield version of that role. I guess if an older live arm is sitting there when the team's selection comes around, it may be worth making a pick, but I seriously doubt he'll make the team. When was the last time the Mets featured a Rule V player on the roster for a full season anyway?
I checked with the Mets' official website and made a few other additions to the 40-man roster that I had apparently forgotten about. Since Ambiorix Burgos, Brandon Knight and Jason Vargas have actually appeared in a Mets uniform, it stands to reason that they are on the 40-man until officially released. I imagine Burgos's legal troubles could get him dumped sooner rather then later.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
Mike Carp (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
There are now six open spots on the 40-man roster, which also leaves room for a Rule V pick next month. For most teams, this can be a under-utilized way of completing a roster. If you're not one of the huge-market teams like the Mets, it makes perfect sense to take a flyer on a seventh reliever or a defensive backup for one season to see if he can develop into a legitimate player down the road.
Too many teams - even those with no hope of winning in 2009 - still insist on giving bloated one-year deals to "proven veterans" to round out the major-league club. It's a poor use of financial resources, at the expense of taking a risk that may lead to a handsome reward. Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria and Johan Santana are just a few of the Rule V players who have made it good in the last 10 years - why wouldn't a small-market team look at that and try to catch lightning in a bottle?
That said, this is one of the rare seasons where I think the Mets may legitimately be in a position to not even bother making a Rule V pick. After last year's bullpen woes, they cannot publicly afford to give a bullpen role to an untested minor leager unless he is absolutely dominant in Spring Training. Endy Chavez serves as the good-field, no-hit outfield backup and Argenis Reyes probably did enough last summer to have an inside track on the infield version of that role. I guess if an older live arm is sitting there when the team's selection comes around, it may be worth making a pick, but I seriously doubt he'll make the team. When was the last time the Mets featured a Rule V player on the roster for a full season anyway?
I checked with the Mets' official website and made a few other additions to the 40-man roster that I had apparently forgotten about. Since Ambiorix Burgos, Brandon Knight and Jason Vargas have actually appeared in a Mets uniform, it stands to reason that they are on the 40-man until officially released. I imagine Burgos's legal troubles could get him dumped sooner rather then later.
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)
RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
Mike Carp (renewable)
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)
FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed
Monday, May 19, 2008
Missing the Boat
The sharks are in the water and everyone is looking for their pound of flesh.
As the Mets continue to flounder in 2008 (sorry, but two straight wins against the last-place team in the American League East doesn't mean they're suddenly ready to begin dominating the rest of the league), the mainstream media has decided that Willie Randolph's head is on the chopping block. The predictable avalanche of columns and reports have followed, nearly all of them focusing on the perception of Willie's lack of control over the Mets' clubhouse and the placid demeanor he and his team continue to show.
Willie fired back last night, taking the media to task for their characterization of him and suggesting that there may even be a racial component to the criticism he's facing. Racism in baseball - and in American society - still exists, of course. But that's not the problem here. Willie doesn't yell and scream and kick dirt and throw stuff on the field when his team isn't showing enough "spark," whatever the hell that means. But that's not the problem either.
The problem is plain and simple - Willie Randolph is a poor tactical manager, who is not rising above the poorly constructed roster being handed to him by his general manager.
There's a reason why Willie Randolph was passed over by more than 10 teams with managerial openings in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It had a little bit to do with the color of his skin (because it would be naive to say that race played no factor at all), but it had a lot to do with the fact that he had no previous managerial experience. Randolph simply refused to manage in the minor leagues to prove himself and instead remained a coach on Joe Torre's staff for several years that he could've been honing the craft at lower levels of organized baseball.
Torre wasn't some type of managerial savant when he ran the ship for the Mets, the Braves or the Cardinals. He only became St. Joe of the Diamonds when he took over a team with the highest payroll in baseball and the greatest, most automatic reliever in baseball history. It didn't hurt that he managed in the American League, where you write nine names on the lineup card and see what happens, or that the enormous payroll more often than not allowed him to write nine names better than anyone else's lineup.
The notion that an apprenticeship under Joe Torre was enough to build one's self into a great manager - a notion that Randolph seemingly buys into - is simply ridiculous. There are very few people in baseball good enough to run a baseball team without spending a few seasons in the minor leagues getting his feet wet. To say that Willie Randolph isn't one of them is not an insult to Willie Randolph; it is simply recognition that Randolph is like nearly every other baseball man on the planet who needed some practice before he became perfect.
Now, we are nearly 3 1/2 years into the Willie Randolph Era and two things are becoming very clear. The first is that Randolph is a conservative, by the book manager whose unimaginative nature does not distinguish him from the rest of the pack. The second is that Randolph still struggles to grasp elementary game tactics, as well as tactics regarding lineup construction and bullpen usage. The result is a skipper who is an active detriment to his team's overall success.
In Willie's World, starters rarely go more than 100 pitches, regardless of circumstance, and multiple relievers pitch every day, rarely more than an inning at a time. The result is an overtaxed bullpen that has observers rightly questioning if they will be able to sustain such an enormous workload for an entire season. In Willie's World, the second place hitter in the lineup is a slap hitter who bunts and moves the runners over, not someone who can actually hit. The result is the continued misuse of Luis Castillo, whose diminished power numbers make him unusable anywhere other than the #8 spot in the lineup.
Willie still doesn't know when to double-switch and still overuses relievers regardless of performance. Who leads the Mets in relief innings pitched so far in 2008? Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa - the two most ineffective relievers in the bullpen this season. Marlon Anderson has been used as a pinch hitter in 29 of the Mets' 41 games this season - he is 5 for 25 with just two extra-base hits. Willie complains about "length" from his starting pitchers, but no one has thrown more than 117 pitches in a game this season, despite a rotation with four starters under the age of 30.
The blame can't all be laid at Willie's feet. He didn't decide to entrust the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation to walking injury risks Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez. He didn't give a lefty specialist a three-year guaranteed contract. He didn't trade for Carlos Delgado's decline years, which just happened to also be his most expensive years. He didn't give a four-year contract to a Punch and Judy hitter with bad knees like Castillo. He didn't decide to build a bench mostly featuring aging second basemen, one of whom has morphed into the re-incarnation of Manny Mota.
This is a $137 million team with no depth and that's Omar Minaya's fault, no matter how you slice it. The farm system - no great shakes to begin with after several years of slot drafting and bad decisions - was laid bare to get Santana, so help most assuredly is not on the way.
So forget about Randolph's demeanor on the bench. Forget about the locker room of quiet players who aren't screaming or fighting or doing whatever the WFAN yahoos think they need to do to "show some guts." That's not the problem here. Willie Randolph is costing the Mets wins not for his behavior in the clubhouse, but for his decisions in the dugout. Everything else just complicates what should be an elementary issue.
As the Mets continue to flounder in 2008 (sorry, but two straight wins against the last-place team in the American League East doesn't mean they're suddenly ready to begin dominating the rest of the league), the mainstream media has decided that Willie Randolph's head is on the chopping block. The predictable avalanche of columns and reports have followed, nearly all of them focusing on the perception of Willie's lack of control over the Mets' clubhouse and the placid demeanor he and his team continue to show.
Willie fired back last night, taking the media to task for their characterization of him and suggesting that there may even be a racial component to the criticism he's facing. Racism in baseball - and in American society - still exists, of course. But that's not the problem here. Willie doesn't yell and scream and kick dirt and throw stuff on the field when his team isn't showing enough "spark," whatever the hell that means. But that's not the problem either.
The problem is plain and simple - Willie Randolph is a poor tactical manager, who is not rising above the poorly constructed roster being handed to him by his general manager.
There's a reason why Willie Randolph was passed over by more than 10 teams with managerial openings in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It had a little bit to do with the color of his skin (because it would be naive to say that race played no factor at all), but it had a lot to do with the fact that he had no previous managerial experience. Randolph simply refused to manage in the minor leagues to prove himself and instead remained a coach on Joe Torre's staff for several years that he could've been honing the craft at lower levels of organized baseball.
Torre wasn't some type of managerial savant when he ran the ship for the Mets, the Braves or the Cardinals. He only became St. Joe of the Diamonds when he took over a team with the highest payroll in baseball and the greatest, most automatic reliever in baseball history. It didn't hurt that he managed in the American League, where you write nine names on the lineup card and see what happens, or that the enormous payroll more often than not allowed him to write nine names better than anyone else's lineup.
The notion that an apprenticeship under Joe Torre was enough to build one's self into a great manager - a notion that Randolph seemingly buys into - is simply ridiculous. There are very few people in baseball good enough to run a baseball team without spending a few seasons in the minor leagues getting his feet wet. To say that Willie Randolph isn't one of them is not an insult to Willie Randolph; it is simply recognition that Randolph is like nearly every other baseball man on the planet who needed some practice before he became perfect.
Now, we are nearly 3 1/2 years into the Willie Randolph Era and two things are becoming very clear. The first is that Randolph is a conservative, by the book manager whose unimaginative nature does not distinguish him from the rest of the pack. The second is that Randolph still struggles to grasp elementary game tactics, as well as tactics regarding lineup construction and bullpen usage. The result is a skipper who is an active detriment to his team's overall success.
In Willie's World, starters rarely go more than 100 pitches, regardless of circumstance, and multiple relievers pitch every day, rarely more than an inning at a time. The result is an overtaxed bullpen that has observers rightly questioning if they will be able to sustain such an enormous workload for an entire season. In Willie's World, the second place hitter in the lineup is a slap hitter who bunts and moves the runners over, not someone who can actually hit. The result is the continued misuse of Luis Castillo, whose diminished power numbers make him unusable anywhere other than the #8 spot in the lineup.
Willie still doesn't know when to double-switch and still overuses relievers regardless of performance. Who leads the Mets in relief innings pitched so far in 2008? Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa - the two most ineffective relievers in the bullpen this season. Marlon Anderson has been used as a pinch hitter in 29 of the Mets' 41 games this season - he is 5 for 25 with just two extra-base hits. Willie complains about "length" from his starting pitchers, but no one has thrown more than 117 pitches in a game this season, despite a rotation with four starters under the age of 30.
The blame can't all be laid at Willie's feet. He didn't decide to entrust the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation to walking injury risks Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez. He didn't give a lefty specialist a three-year guaranteed contract. He didn't trade for Carlos Delgado's decline years, which just happened to also be his most expensive years. He didn't give a four-year contract to a Punch and Judy hitter with bad knees like Castillo. He didn't decide to build a bench mostly featuring aging second basemen, one of whom has morphed into the re-incarnation of Manny Mota.
This is a $137 million team with no depth and that's Omar Minaya's fault, no matter how you slice it. The farm system - no great shakes to begin with after several years of slot drafting and bad decisions - was laid bare to get Santana, so help most assuredly is not on the way.
So forget about Randolph's demeanor on the bench. Forget about the locker room of quiet players who aren't screaming or fighting or doing whatever the WFAN yahoos think they need to do to "show some guts." That's not the problem here. Willie Randolph is costing the Mets wins not for his behavior in the clubhouse, but for his decisions in the dugout. Everything else just complicates what should be an elementary issue.
Monday, March 31, 2008
25-Man Roster Analysis, Part 2
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
In yet another example of this organization's screwed-up priorities and abiding affinity for proven veterans, the guy who should be the #1 catcher is starting the season on the DL and will return as a backup.
Omar Minaya is under the impresion that Brian Schneider is good enough to be the starting catcher on a major league baseball team. He is mistaken. Schenider can't hit and his ability to control the running game has deteriorated over the past two seasons. He better call a damn good game every time out, otherwise he is one of the more useless players in MLB. Never has the failure of a team to complete a low-level free-agent signing led to such disatrous consequences.
Ramon Castro will still probably end up catching 50 to 60 games this season. He is a much better hitter than Schneider and at least equally adept at cutting down stolen bases, which still doesn't make him even one of the 20 best catchers in the league. Let's not go too crazy over Destro - he's not exactly the next Victor Martinez.
Raul Casanova is the type of guy I always end up with the blind pick at the trading deadline in my Strat-o-Matic. That is to say that Casanova is the type of player who sucks and will never make a positive impact on his team.
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
No, I didn't forget anyone. The Mets have only five infielders on the roster right now - the consequences of selecting Brady Clark over Fernando Tatis for the final poisition player spot. To say this is a ridiculous state of affairs is an understatement; Damion Easley can't actually field any of the positions he's supposed to be backing up at and isn't much of a hitter to boot. Will anyone be surprised if he puts up a .220/.300/.370 line this season?
Anyway, Carlos Delgado is mercifully entering the final year of his contract - and the Mets are only on the hook for another $20 million! Delgado came to the Mets under the worst of circumstances; one year after spurning the Mets on the free agent market to sign with the Marlins, Florida wisely turned around and dealt him back to Flushing for three prospects. Delgado put up an OPS+ of 161 in his first and only season in Miami and was quite a bargain in the process, making only $4 million in the first season of the back-loaded contract.
Delgado has been underperforming his career numbers ever since being traded to New York and badly faltered last season. Mike Jacobs, one of the three players the Marlins received for, was only slightly worse offensively (103 OPS+ for Delgado, compared to 100 OPS+ for Jacobs) and did so for $14 million less. Simply put, the trade has been a disaster and is not likely to look better in 2008. At this point, the Mets just have to hope Delgado doesn't regress even further; a line of .265/.330/.460 with 25 homers would be acceptable, as long as Carlos can play 150 games.
Luis Castillo is 32 years old, his knees are shot, his speed is disappearing and he has absolutely no extra-base power. At this point, he is little more than a slap-hitting glove man - think Ozzie Smith's best seasons without the stolen base totals and the otherworldly defense. This is a player that most teams would know better than to give a long-term commitment to, especially if they have cheaper second base options in their system (see Gotay, Ruben). The Mets, of course, saw things differently.
This actually isn't a terrible deal. It only takes Castillo through his Age-35 season and he's pretty likely to put up a string of .290/.360/370 seasons through the length of the contract. He's still above average in the field and can probably sneak out 20 stolen bases. They're overpaying, to be sure, but the Mets had no other answers save Gotay and Castillo fits the role of the prototypical #2 hitter very well.
What can I say about David Wright that would provide you a new and unique perspective on him? He's a superstar, period. He's going to put up terrific offensive seasons for the next 10 to 15 years, will hopefully retire as a Met and may be the last person in franchise history to wear #5. High-end projections would include a 30-30 season and a .330/.425/.590 line; even worst-case scenarios would suggest 20 home runs and a .290/.375/.500 line.
Jose Reyes will either become a superstar, or he will become Juan Samuel. The ever-increasing walk rate (27 to 77 in just three seasons) is the most promising indicator that he will avoid the Samuel career path. He's never going to hit like Hanley Ramirez did in 2007, but Reyes' defense is light years ahead of Ramirez and his range is among the best in the game at his position, so a solid argument can be made in favor of Jose over Hanley. I think that he could put up a string of offensive seasons reminiscent of a late-1980s Rickey Henderson.
Damion Easley should not be backing up all four infield positions on a Major League Baseball team. An injury to Delgado, Wright or Reyes would be extremely catastrophic as the Mets lack any semblance of a credible major leaguer to replace them.
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Brady Clark
Moises Alou-DL
Who knows how many games Moises Alou will play this season? He'll smack the cover off the ball whenever he's healthy, though, and if the Mets can keep him standing long enough to play October baseball, they will be extremely tough to beat in a playoff series. For now, Spring Training phenom Angel Pagan will man left field until Alou can return; he'll be ready for release by June 1, because he is a terrible baseball player.
Carlos Beltran has devolved from the five-tool talent we were promised in 2004 to something resembling Andruw Jones. He's a nice cleanup hitter and a terrific center fielder with the glove, but he's not a leader in the clubhouse and he's not worth $18.5 milion for each of the next four years.
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
In yet another example of this organization's screwed-up priorities and abiding affinity for proven veterans, the guy who should be the #1 catcher is starting the season on the DL and will return as a backup.
Omar Minaya is under the impresion that Brian Schneider is good enough to be the starting catcher on a major league baseball team. He is mistaken. Schenider can't hit and his ability to control the running game has deteriorated over the past two seasons. He better call a damn good game every time out, otherwise he is one of the more useless players in MLB. Never has the failure of a team to complete a low-level free-agent signing led to such disatrous consequences.
Ramon Castro will still probably end up catching 50 to 60 games this season. He is a much better hitter than Schneider and at least equally adept at cutting down stolen bases, which still doesn't make him even one of the 20 best catchers in the league. Let's not go too crazy over Destro - he's not exactly the next Victor Martinez.
Raul Casanova is the type of guy I always end up with the blind pick at the trading deadline in my Strat-o-Matic. That is to say that Casanova is the type of player who sucks and will never make a positive impact on his team.
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
No, I didn't forget anyone. The Mets have only five infielders on the roster right now - the consequences of selecting Brady Clark over Fernando Tatis for the final poisition player spot. To say this is a ridiculous state of affairs is an understatement; Damion Easley can't actually field any of the positions he's supposed to be backing up at and isn't much of a hitter to boot. Will anyone be surprised if he puts up a .220/.300/.370 line this season?
Anyway, Carlos Delgado is mercifully entering the final year of his contract - and the Mets are only on the hook for another $20 million! Delgado came to the Mets under the worst of circumstances; one year after spurning the Mets on the free agent market to sign with the Marlins, Florida wisely turned around and dealt him back to Flushing for three prospects. Delgado put up an OPS+ of 161 in his first and only season in Miami and was quite a bargain in the process, making only $4 million in the first season of the back-loaded contract.
Delgado has been underperforming his career numbers ever since being traded to New York and badly faltered last season. Mike Jacobs, one of the three players the Marlins received for, was only slightly worse offensively (103 OPS+ for Delgado, compared to 100 OPS+ for Jacobs) and did so for $14 million less. Simply put, the trade has been a disaster and is not likely to look better in 2008. At this point, the Mets just have to hope Delgado doesn't regress even further; a line of .265/.330/.460 with 25 homers would be acceptable, as long as Carlos can play 150 games.
Luis Castillo is 32 years old, his knees are shot, his speed is disappearing and he has absolutely no extra-base power. At this point, he is little more than a slap-hitting glove man - think Ozzie Smith's best seasons without the stolen base totals and the otherworldly defense. This is a player that most teams would know better than to give a long-term commitment to, especially if they have cheaper second base options in their system (see Gotay, Ruben). The Mets, of course, saw things differently.
This actually isn't a terrible deal. It only takes Castillo through his Age-35 season and he's pretty likely to put up a string of .290/.360/370 seasons through the length of the contract. He's still above average in the field and can probably sneak out 20 stolen bases. They're overpaying, to be sure, but the Mets had no other answers save Gotay and Castillo fits the role of the prototypical #2 hitter very well.
What can I say about David Wright that would provide you a new and unique perspective on him? He's a superstar, period. He's going to put up terrific offensive seasons for the next 10 to 15 years, will hopefully retire as a Met and may be the last person in franchise history to wear #5. High-end projections would include a 30-30 season and a .330/.425/.590 line; even worst-case scenarios would suggest 20 home runs and a .290/.375/.500 line.
Jose Reyes will either become a superstar, or he will become Juan Samuel. The ever-increasing walk rate (27 to 77 in just three seasons) is the most promising indicator that he will avoid the Samuel career path. He's never going to hit like Hanley Ramirez did in 2007, but Reyes' defense is light years ahead of Ramirez and his range is among the best in the game at his position, so a solid argument can be made in favor of Jose over Hanley. I think that he could put up a string of offensive seasons reminiscent of a late-1980s Rickey Henderson.
Damion Easley should not be backing up all four infield positions on a Major League Baseball team. An injury to Delgado, Wright or Reyes would be extremely catastrophic as the Mets lack any semblance of a credible major leaguer to replace them.
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Brady Clark
Moises Alou-DL
Who knows how many games Moises Alou will play this season? He'll smack the cover off the ball whenever he's healthy, though, and if the Mets can keep him standing long enough to play October baseball, they will be extremely tough to beat in a playoff series. For now, Spring Training phenom Angel Pagan will man left field until Alou can return; he'll be ready for release by June 1, because he is a terrible baseball player.
Carlos Beltran has devolved from the five-tool talent we were promised in 2004 to something resembling Andruw Jones. He's a nice cleanup hitter and a terrific center fielder with the glove, but he's not a leader in the clubhouse and he's not worth $18.5 milion for each of the next four years.
As distraught as I am to lose Lastings Milledge, I like Ryan Church. He's a decent outfielder who can play all three positions and is a pretty good hitter to boot. If he can shore up his performance against lefties, Church has the potential to be a very good #6 hitter - I'm thinking Kevin McReynolds with a few more doubles and a few less home runs.
The Mets really should have a right-handed bat on the roster who can serve as a platoon partner for Church. Instead, the Mets have Pagan and Brady Clark. Sigh.
Endy Chavez is an excellent fifth outfielder, because like Church he plays all three outfield positions. Chavez, however, can steal 30 bases and excels in the field - the fact that he can't hit much is exposed whenever he gets extended playing time. Limit him to 250 at-bats and lots of appearances as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, and everyone will be happy.
Summing Up: The first four batters in the lineup (Reyes, Castillo, Wright and Beltran) can stake a claim for being the best quartet in the National League. Castillo is ultimately a below-average hitter, but fits the lineup well because Willie Randolph will only ask him to do the tasks associated with prototypical #2 hitters. (There's that phrase again; I'm going to be addressing it soon enough.)
Alou is still dangerous when healthy, but Delgado's reputation is more dangerous than his bat. Church and Schneider will round out the everyday lineup; Church will hit, Schneider will not. Moises really is the key to the offense, because when he's healthy he makes the Mets a very difficult lineup to contend with. Replace him with Chavez or Pagan and you've got the potential to get five straight outs every time Beltran completes his at-bat.
By the way, the sooner the Mets release Clark and sign a right-handed 3B/1B who can spell Delgado against lefties, the better.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Stupid Decisions, Part 1
Welcome to the segment of my new blog that I like to call "Stupid Decisions." These segments will be dedicated to all the times the Mets do something stupid to piss me off, which invariably leads me to question how much longer I can remain a fan of this team.
I wrote about the dumb decision to release Ruben Gotay late last night and I had made my peace with it as best as I possibly could. So I get home from work today and just as I'm about to make some dinner when Joe calls me with the latest news: Gotay is going to be practicing his tomahawk chop this year.
Well, that's just terrific. It took the Braves less than 24 hours to swoop in and sign a guy who was actually in tears about the idea of having to leave the Mets, and to disprove the old adage that "you can't get something for nothing." The Mets didn't attempt to work out a deal with the Braves - hell, as far as I can tell they didn't attempt to work out a deal with any team in the league. They just let Gotay go, 72 hours before the final rosters were due, and ended up handing him to Atlanta for nothing.
Joe put it very well. "Jack," he asked me, "if any other team in the league had Ruben Gotay, and the Mets offered them Fernando Tatis in a trade, do you think they would do it? And we kept Tatis, and gave away Gotay!"
So let's recap: our hated division rivals just filled one of the last holes on their roster by grabbing a 25-year-old infielder who can play three positions and who just came off a season where he nearly hit .300 - all at the expense of the Mets! Bold prediction: Gotay and Lastings Milledge combine for 10 home runs against the Mets in 2008.
I wrote about the dumb decision to release Ruben Gotay late last night and I had made my peace with it as best as I possibly could. So I get home from work today and just as I'm about to make some dinner when Joe calls me with the latest news: Gotay is going to be practicing his tomahawk chop this year.
Well, that's just terrific. It took the Braves less than 24 hours to swoop in and sign a guy who was actually in tears about the idea of having to leave the Mets, and to disprove the old adage that "you can't get something for nothing." The Mets didn't attempt to work out a deal with the Braves - hell, as far as I can tell they didn't attempt to work out a deal with any team in the league. They just let Gotay go, 72 hours before the final rosters were due, and ended up handing him to Atlanta for nothing.
Joe put it very well. "Jack," he asked me, "if any other team in the league had Ruben Gotay, and the Mets offered them Fernando Tatis in a trade, do you think they would do it? And we kept Tatis, and gave away Gotay!"
So let's recap: our hated division rivals just filled one of the last holes on their roster by grabbing a 25-year-old infielder who can play three positions and who just came off a season where he nearly hit .300 - all at the expense of the Mets! Bold prediction: Gotay and Lastings Milledge combine for 10 home runs against the Mets in 2008.
Roster Move: Bye Bye Gotay
The Mets put Ruben Gotay on waivers yesterday, a decision that’s drawing a predictable level of condemnation in some circles. I don’t like the decision either, though, and I think it’s indicative of Omar Minaya’s short-sightedness in the area of roster construction.
The
Now all that said, let’s not kid ourselves about Gotay’s future. He showed some signs of being a productive MLB second baseman last season, but I don’t think he’ll ever be anything more than a lower-echelon starter or a solid-hitting backup. He’s not a great fielder and although he can hit a little, nothing about his track record makes me think that Ruben has the ability to hit .300 or smack 20 home runs over a full season. I’d still much rather have the guy we traded for Gotay in the first place, who may finally be getting a chance to play with the Reds this season. I am convinced that Keppinger simply needs to get 450 at-bats this year and he will put up a .315/.360/.430 line.
Still, I was struck by Gotay’s energy level last season and liked the fact that it looked like he was having fun playing the game. Maybe it’s naive of me to still value that in a ballplayer, but it’s one of the few “intangibles” I actually believe in. I think most baseball fans have a natural affinity for guys with a certain style and flair – unless they happen to be black, in which case they’ll simply be chastised by the holier-than-thou white guys in media circles about “playing the game right.”
If Minaya had played his cards right, his position players could’ve stacked up like this:
CATCHERS
Schneider
Castro - DL
INFIELDERS
Delgado
Castillo
Reyes
Wright
Gotay
Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Alou - DL
Beltran
Church
Chavez
Pagan/Clark/generic right-handed fifth outfielder
CATCHERS
Schneider
Castro - DL
backup catcher who will be sent to AAA when Castro returns
INFIELDERS
Delgado
Castillo
Reyes
Wright
Easley
Tatis
Alou - DL
Beltran
Church
Chavez
Pagan/Clark/generic right-handed sixth outfielder who will be sent down or released once Alou comes off the DL, thereby depriving Ryan Church of a sorely-needed platoon partner.
Minaya can minimize his latest roster folly if he can find a way to trade Gotay for Matt Murton, who is inexplicably about to be sent to AAA by the Cubs. The Cubs might be interested, since they've been chasing a second baseman all winter with no luck. Murton would be the perfect fit for the Mets – he can start in left until Alou comes back and then shift into a platoon with Church in right field while waiting for Moises’s next injury. He’s a good young hitter who had success as a regular in 2006, with a minor-league record that suggests he has the potential to take the left field job from Alou in 2009.
Minaya, of course, will completely miss the boat on this one as well.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)