How Does Speed Affect the Batter?

Reader LCee asked earlier this week: "Jack, several years ago, Joe Sheehan made the comment to the effect of: a fast runner on the bases might distract the pitcher and certain infield position players, but that pales in comparison to the impact on the hitter, as he must protect the runner with lame swings when the runner attempts a steal. What is your take?"

It's an interesting question and one that deserves some consideration. I believe that the article LCee is quoting from is this Baseball Prospectus piece from 2004, which includes this passage: The vaunted secondary effects of stealing bases--distracting the pitcher, putting pressure on the defense--do not appear to exist. In fact, most secondary effects argue in favor of keeping the runner on first base. A runner on first is more disruptive to a defense, with the first baseman holding and the second baseman cheating towards second for a double play, than a runner on second. Additionally, studies show that stolen-base attempts negatively impact the performance of the batter at the plate, presumably due to hitters getting themselves into negative counts by taking pitches or swinging at bad balls to protect the runner.

The article doesn't include links to any studies that show negligible secondary effects of base-stealing or the supposed negative impact that a runner attempting a steal has on the batter. Sheehan has numbers on his side, so if I see the studies he's referencing it will surely be harder to support my perspective. From a common-sense standpoint, however, it's difficult to believe that an altered pitching motion and a limited pitch selection does not favor the batter.

A pitcher generally changes his pitching motion when holding a runner on base, by throwing from the stretch to decrease the amount of time it takes to deliver the ball to the catcher. Pitch selection changes as well; a pitcher simply cannot throw as many breaking balls to a batter with Jose Reyes on first base, because if Reyes tries to steal on a breaking pitch he's going to be standing safely on second.

The arguments about defensive positioning make sense, and I agree that the batter - especially if he's left-handed - benefits more from a big hole between first and second base then from simply having the runner on second. Still, any run expectancy matrix shows that a team is more likely to score with a runner on second than with a runner on first, given the same amount of outs. Given that, I simply cannot agree with Sheehan's first contention.

One other point: no study can possibly measure the psychological effects that a fast runner on first has on the pitcher, and I have to believe that most hurlers are simply less comfortable with a runner on base then pitching with the bases empty. I know I'm veering dangerously close to "intangibles" territory here by trying to predict psychological influences, but I do think the logic behind my thinking is strong. Again, if I saw some of the studies that Sheehan referenced, I may think differently.

However, I do not need to see any studies to be convinced of Sheehan's second contention. All the advantages that I believe the batter has with a fast runner on first are immediately given away the second that the runner actually takes off. The best possible scenario is that the pitcher throws a ball that is clearly out of the strike zone and the batter recognizes this and checks his swing, allowing the baserunner to steal safely. Otherwise, the batter finds himself taking a strike in an attempt to let the runner steal, or takes a defensive hack to protect the runner and to avoid the double play.

Forget about the hole that appears when the shortstop or the second baseman goes to cover on the steal attempt; a hitter trying to hit the ball through that hole is indeed taking a compromised swing and therefore less likely to hit safely. In my opinion, the best thing the batter can do is simply step back and let the runner earn his base, without trying to help out.

On Speed and Leadoff Hitters

My contributions to the message boards at Flushing University are full of threads with twists and turns away from the original topic. Usually, they end up in a spirited defense of the merits of Adam Dunn as a baseball player, but today I ended up talking about speed, stolen bases and ideal leadoff hitters.

I think if you were going into a lab to create the "ideal leadoff hitter," it would be a guy with the speed to steal 50 bases, the patience to walk 100 times and the stick to bat .300 and to crack 65 extra-base hits. Grady Sizemore is a good example of the modern incarnation of that player, although once a guy cracks the 25-homer barrier he probably belongs a little further down in the lineup so he can drive in more runs.

Still, I get the feeling that managers just can't get past the idea of leadoff hitter = base stealer.
Too many managers focus more on a potential leadoff hitter's speed and not enough on his patience or the ability to drive the ball. Conventional wisdom says that your leadoff hitter has to be able to steal bases above all else and that on-base percentage or total bases aren't as important. I disagree.

I love stolen bases, but if I was building a lineup and had to choose between, say Joe Mauer and Juan Pierre in the leadoff spot, Mr. Pierre would be batting eighth. Mauer's typical year looks exactly what a leadoff hitter's should look like in every respect but the stolen base total. When you are talking about two guys with limited skill sets, I'll always take the leadoff hitter who can walk but can't run over the guy who can run but can't walk.

Don't get me wrong. I love steals and the way they change the game in ways that do not show up in a boxscore. You simply cannot quantify the distraction that Jose Reyes creates on the basepaths for opposing pitchers. I think it's critically important to any good lineup to have at least two stolen base threats in the game at any given time.

I am just not wedded to the notion that fast runners must be at the top of the lineup, especially at the expense of players who will have a higher OBP or more total bases. The ideal leadoff hitter combines speed, on-base percentage and total bases. A leadoff hitter who only has speed, but falls short in the other two categories, should be batting at the bottom of the lineup.

Stolen bases should be respected as weapons in whatever part of the lineup they are featured from. A good lineup, however, is built without regard to stolen base totals and with specific attention to the slash stats and extra-base hits. If anything, batting a speedster seventh makes a lot of sense. He can use his legs in an attempt to push himself into scoring position, and it's harder to run yourself out of a "big" inning if the eighth and ninth hitter follow someone who is caught stealing.

It's counter-intuitive, but I would bat Luis Castillo seventh for just that reason. He may run himself into scoring position and even if he doesn't, his presence might distract the pitcher enough to groove a bad pitch to the likes of Brian Schneider, who needs to capitalize on pitcher mistakes to get hits.

Roster Move: Burgos and Argenis Reyes Non-Tendered

Ambiorix Burgos has bigger issues in his life, but now he can add unemployment to his list of problems. The Mets non-tendered him this week, effectively cutting all ties with the beleaguered right-hander facing charges in the Dominican Republic for allegedly killing two women in a hit-and-run attack. He was already on thin ice with the organization after getting arrested in September for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend. It might be too kind to tab Burgos with the classic label of "million dollar arm, ten cent head," since it appears that the head is coming up about nine pennies too short.

The Burgos for Brian Bannister trade after the 2006 offseason has been widely criticized, but it's hard to blame Omar Minaya for swapping a soft-tosser for a flamethrower, all things being equal. Bannister had a very good season two years ago and despite his disastrous 2008 campaign, he remains a player that I like to follow for his ideas about pitching. Still, Burgos was one decent breaking ball away from being a dominant reliever before Tommy John surgery. If he is acquitted, he will surely end up in a major league camp before long.

I've been under the impression that Argenis Reyes was not arbitration-eligible, but I must have been wrong. He has a decent glove, but Reyes can't hit major league pitching and he never will. Reyes's release keeps Damion Easley's hopes for a utility job with the Mets alive, but Alex Cora is also a possibility for backup middle infield role. I can't figure out the deal with Easley - Cot's Contracts says he's a free agent, but the Mets continue to include him on the 40-man roster. When in doubt, go with Cot's.

Meanwhile, the Mets offered arbitration to John Maine, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Ryan Church and Jeremy Reed, increasing the chances that they'll be playing for the Mets in 2009. Actually, everyone but Reed will have a major league job, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez or Feliciano are traded before Opening Day. Maine will be in the starting rotation for the Mets and Church will have a corner outfield spot, most likely in right field.

If it's true that Easley is a free agent, the Mets only have 15 position players on the 40-man roster right now. I know Omar Minaya has insisted that he's focusing on pitching at the moment, but at what point does he turn his attention to the other eight spots on the diamond?

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Pedro Feliciano
Duaner Sanchez
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league contract)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league contract)
Gustavo Molina (minor league contract)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

Roster Move: Schoeneweis Exiled

The worst free-agent signing of Omar Minaya's career is heading west to Arizona, as the Mets continued the joyful process of breaking up The Arson Squad today. The Diamondbacks are sending someone named Conor Roberston to New York, but Minaya could've traded Scott Schoeneweis for Pat Robertson and Mets fans still would've been happy.

The truth is that Schoeneweis, when deployed properly, actually wasn't that bad during his two seasons with the Mets. He was generally able to get left-handed batters out, but most of us understood that Schoeneweis was Bantha fodder against right-handed batters. Willie Randolph, of course, couldn't properly deploy a vacuum cleaner, so Schoeneweis ended up failing in a ton of situations he had no business being in. Hey, if you ask me to cut sheetrock, I'm probably going to screw it up. The key is putting people in positions to succeed.

Pedro Feliciano now slides into the lefty specialist role, where I think he will have a fine bounce-back season in 2009. I would be surprised to see the Mets go with only one left-hander in the bullpen, so I expect to see another transaction to address that need. Please, Omar, no more three-year contracts for middle relievers!

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (renewable)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Conor Robertson (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (arbitration eligible)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

Roster Move: Mets Add Two Relievers in Rule V Draft

I love the Rule V draft. If I were a GM, it wouldn't matter if I was running the Yankees or the Marlins - I would have a Rule V pick on my roster every year. No team should have its 25-man roster packed so tight that it can't afford to carry a seventh reliever or a defensive replacement plucked from this draft. It's a cheap and easy way to round out your team - and once in a while you get lucky and choose a player that ends up becoming a star.

The Mets picked up two right-handed relievers in the Rule V draft today. Neither of them will become a star, but it shows that Omar Minaya is leaving no stone unturned when it comes to filling out the bullpen. Darren O'Day (Angels) and Rocky Cherry (Orioles) were added to the 40-man roster and each will be given a chance to earn a bullpen spot in Spring Training.

Each has major league experience, but O'Day has a better chance to stick with the big club than Cherry. A side-arming right-hander, O'Day has been successful throughout his minor-league career and did not embarrass himself with California in 2008. Unfortunately, he also tore his labrum toward the end of the season and the Angels released him to make room on the 40-man roster. O'Day signed a minor-league deal with the club as was going to rehab with the Angels in the hopes he could avoid surgery. Instead, he'll be rehabbing with the Mets.

Rule V players, in addition to spending the entire subsequent season on their new club's major-league roster, must be an active player for at least 90 days. This prevents clubs from stashing Rule V picks on the disabled list for an entire season. So if the Mets play their cards right, they can basically let O'Day rest or rehab until July 1 and see if he can pitch himself into their bullpen by then. If he doesn't, they release him and that's it. Labrums are generally career-killers, but a sidearmer who doesn't light up the radar gun may be able to survive.

Cherry has a decent fastball and a decent breaking ball, but that's about it. He probably won't make the club, but there is no harm in taking aim, even if the target is a dream. It's interesting that Minaya chose two pitchers with big league experience - O'Day and Cherry's upside is more limited than some other Rule V picks, but they are among the most likely to actually contribute next season.

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez*
JJ Putz
Scott Schoeneweis
Darren O'Day (Rule V)
Rocky Cherry (Rule V)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

I'll Be The Judge: Francisco Rodriguez

2008 Season: Francisco Rodriguez - better known as K-Rod around the league for his propensity to strike batters out - set a single-season saves record by locking down 62 games for the Los Angeles Angels in 2008. In every other statistical category, it was actually the worst season of his six-year career.

K-Rod had a career high in WHIP (his second straight season above the 1.2o range) and career lows in strikeout rates and batting average allowed. He averaged less than one inning per appearance - a sign that the Angels overly specialized K-Rod's role in the bullpen instead of leveraging his talent for high-need situations. Oh, and he blew six saves - although that still gave K-Rod a very respectable 91.1% save conversion percentage.

Contract Status: This really is an incredibly club-friendly deal. Cot's Contracts is saying that K-Rod will make just $8.5 million in 2009, with successive years at $11.5 million after that. The $17.5 million option in 2012 is just awful, but it only becomes guaranteed if K-Rod doesn't miss significant time in 2010 or 2011. Otherwise, the Mets can buy at the option at $3.5 million and look to re-sign K-Rod to a more realistic longterm deal - remember, he'll only be 29 at the end of the guaranteed portion of the contract.

K-Rod was supposedly looking for 5 years, $75 million at the beginning of the off-season; the general manager who would've acquiesced to such a ridiculous request should've had their sobriety level checked. Kudos to Omar Minaya for getting K-Rod at Brad Lidge money (although he had to tack on an option year based on incentives that will be fairly easy to attain). The other 29 GMs are thanking him too - this signing single-handedly lowers the bar financially for every other closer on the market. Brian Fuentes in particular will probably struggle to get more than $11 million a year now - early reports had him commanding an average annual value in the $13 million range.

The Verdict: K-Rod will be remembered for the rest of his career as the guy who set a single-season save record in 2008, and it's a record that will probably stand for some time. Still, it was not a particularly good season by any stretch - his WHIP was higher than former Marlins closer Kevin Gregg and his batting average allowed was higher than fellow free agent Fuentes. Astros reliever Jose Valverde was among the handful of closers who had a better K/9 rate than the man whose nickname was borne from his ability to strike batters out.

In the end, K-Rod was extremely lucky to have so many late-game leads to protect and danced out of trouble often enough to get his name in the record books. He deserves some credit for this - in the end, it really doesn't matter if a closer has a 1-2-3 ninth inning or if they load the bases without giving up any runs. Today's closers are measured not by their dominance but whether or not they succeeded in their highly-specialized roles. K-Rod unquestionably succeeded in his.

2009 Outlook: I think K-Rod will be very, very good in a similarly specialized role with the Mets. I expect a save conversion percentage above 90 percent, which for the Mets could be the difference between a playoff berth and yet another excruciating late September collapse. The increased WHIP and decline in strikeout rates may also just be a matter of a pitcher learning how to pitch. Perhaps K-Rod now understands that strikeouts are pretty, but allowing balls to be put in play makes for a more efficient (if less statistically dominant) reliever. His raw stuff is so still good that 2008's K/9 rate of 10.15 was actually considered a cause for concern.

One last thing: we've been hearing rumors for years that K-Rod's funky delivery and stressful slider were an arm injury waiting to happen, but he's made it through six full seasons without disaster striking. I have no reason to believe it will at this point.

Roster Move: Mets Trade for Putz

I hope I'm not jumping the gun here, but it's being reported everywhere and I'm still awake, so I'll take my chances.

Just a quick and dirty analysis here: from a Mets perspective, turning Smith into Green and Chavez into Reed doesn't mean that much, although Smith would seem to have more upside and Chavez would seem to be better defensively. Turning Heilman into Putz is a neat trick - if Putz is healthy and his terrible 2008 was merely the result of injuries. Of course, if Heilman's 2008 was an aberration as well, this deal has the potential to go bad for the Mets.

Me, I would've down Heilman/Feliciano for Street two weeks ago. This deserves a closer look though, so I'll break down the trade a little more closely soon.

EDIT: Maybe I should've waited. Now ESPN is saying that Jason Vargas and two other minor leaguers are part of the deal on the Mets' side, making the ledger look more like this:

Mets get JJ Putz, Sean Green and Jeremy Reed from Mariners
Mariners get Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Maikel Cleto and Ezequiel Carrera from Mets (also get Franklin Gutierrez-plus from Indians)
Indians get Smith and Luis Valbuena from Mariners

Oh, and how about this quote: "An All-Star in 2007 when he saved 40 games, Putz was 6-5 with a 3.88 ERA and 15 saves in 23 chances last season, when he missed long stretches with ribcage and elbow injuries. His agent, Craig Landis, said Putz wants to remain a closer.

"He's one of the top five or 10 closers in the game," Landis said. "No, he would not want to be a set-up man."

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez
JJ Putz
Scott Schoeneweis
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Sean Green (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Jeremy Reed (renewable)
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

Roster Move: Mets Sign K-Rod

I'll cast judgment on Francisco Rodriguez tomorrow, but I will say this - getting K-Rod at Brad Lidge money is good work by Omar Minaya. This is where Minaya excels - he picks out the elite free agents on the market and pays them just enough to play for the Mets. It sounds simple, but large-market GMs often make the mistake of spending money because they can, not because they properly leverage resources to bring in the best players. The Mets will pay K-Rod the same amount of money that the Mariners will pay Carlos Silva over the next three years - and that's all you need to know about that.

I'll probably expand on this at a later date, but what Minaya lacks as a general manager is creativity. He seems almost formulaic when it comes to roster construction - identify needs, make list of the best players available through trades or free agency and go after the highest player on the list. If Player A can't be had, move to Player B and repeat until you get someone. Minaya never seems to identify market inefficiencies if they don't correlate directly with his plans at the moment. He doesn't sneak up on GMs who are looking to move good players who aren't immediately obvious fits for the Mets as constructed at that very moment.

Even now, there is a glut of good-hit, no-field corner outfielders on the market. The Mets are planning to platoon Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis in left field, while hoping that Ryan Church's bell hasn't been permanently rung from the concussions of last season. Minaya, however, continues to publicly say that his focus is on pitching and that he has no interest in upgrading the corner outfield spots.

I hope it's just silly posturing - because otherwise it's one more indication that Minaya follows a script when it comes to roster construction and lacks the ability to make changes to the script when opportunity presents itself.

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Francisco Rodriguez
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
Mike Carp (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

Strike Before the Stove Gets Hot (Flushing University)

Things have been moving slowly on the free agent market this off-season. Omar Minaya's decision to resign a key free agent in October may have been too hasty. Read more here.

Shifting Priorities

As the semester draws to a close, I'm going to have more time to update this site over the next month and a half. As you can see above (neat blogger trick!), I was able to complete a long piece for Flushing University yesterday and I had a couple of additional thoughts about why some players were not offered arbitration by their current teams.

I still can't believe that 12 Type A free agents (the kind that earn a team two draft picks as compensation for signing with another team) were not offered arbitration, eliminating the draft pick compensation. Those 12 players should become the focus of any smart general manager who wants to add to his roster without hurting his minor-league system.

I know a lot of Mets fans are jonesing for adding Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes to lock down the closer's spot, but I'm solidly in the Trevor Hoffman camp now. Both K-Rod and Fuentes were offered arbitration and each will require multi-year deals in excess of $10 million per year. Hoffman can be had a one-year deal for half that price, will be nearly as good as any other closer on the market and won't require a long commitment. Best of all, the Padres did not offer him arbitration, so the Mets won't lose a draft pick by signing him.

My recommendation: sign Hoffman for one year and $4 million, then sign Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell if any of them will take a contract in the neighborhood of three years and $36 million.

I've been reading speculation that the reason so many Type A free agents weren't offered arbitration is fear by their former clubs that the players would actually accept it, binding those clubs to a one-year deal at a very high rate. Both Arizona and the Yankees had legitimate reason to believe that Dunn and Abreu would command more than $15 million in arbitration and apparently decided that there was too much risk involved just to guarantee two draft picks. Such thinking is short-sighted, of course. Yes, it would've taken a little more work by their respective general managers if either player accepted arbitration, but the Diamondbacks and the Yankees both just gave away valuable assets for nothing because they didn't want to assume any risk.

A premium player on a one-year deal is prime trade bait. Am I supposed to believe that the Diamondbacks couldn't find a taker for Dunn on a one-year deal before Spring Training? Or that the Yankees couldn't do the same for Abreu? Look at it this way - what is more attractive to a general manager in a risk-averse climate because of the struggling economy: one guaranteed year of Adam Dunn, with the first shot at re-signing him if he hits 40 homers for the fifth straight year, or four guaranteed years at roughly the same salary?

As for the Mets, they extended arbitration to Oliver Perez, which means that if he signs with other teams they are guaranteed two draft picks. Ollie was their only Type A free agent and I doubt he's coming back, so the Mets probably guaranteed their picks with this move. Of course, the front office will simply insist that the team adheres to slot recommendations, so the Mets won't take advantage of the flawed amateur draft system anyway.

They did not extend arbitration to Type B free agents Moises Alou or Luis Ayala, so if either player signs with another team the Mets will not receive a draft pick. Ayala will probably find work somewhere, but not offering arbitration is a pretty clear sign that he is not in Minaya's plans for 2009. Let's hope we can say the same about Alou!

Roster Move: Carp Added to 40-Man Roster

Mike Carp was the only minor-leaguer added to the Mets' 40-man roster last week, which will leave the club plenty of flexibility throughout the off-season for free agents or multi-player trades. I don't think Carp has the talent to be a major league player - and neither do the Mets, apparently, who left him in Double-A Binghamton while promoting Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans from there last season. Still, he hit pretty well in the lower levels of the minors before fashioning a very good 2008 campaign at the plate for the B-Mets, so he still qualifies as a prospect.

There are now six open spots on the 40-man roster, which also leaves room for a Rule V pick next month. For most teams, this can be a under-utilized way of completing a roster. If you're not one of the huge-market teams like the Mets, it makes perfect sense to take a flyer on a seventh reliever or a defensive backup for one season to see if he can develop into a legitimate player down the road.

Too many teams - even those with no hope of winning in 2009 - still insist on giving bloated one-year deals to "proven veterans" to round out the major-league club. It's a poor use of financial resources, at the expense of taking a risk that may lead to a handsome reward. Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria and Johan Santana are just a few of the Rule V players who have made it good in the last 10 years - why wouldn't a small-market team look at that and try to catch lightning in a bottle?

That said, this is one of the rare seasons where I think the Mets may legitimately be in a position to not even bother making a Rule V pick. After last year's bullpen woes, they cannot publicly afford to give a bullpen role to an untested minor leager unless he is absolutely dominant in Spring Training. Endy Chavez serves as the good-field, no-hit outfield backup and Argenis Reyes probably did enough last summer to have an inside track on the infield version of that role. I guess if an older live arm is sitting there when the team's selection comes around, it may be worth making a pick, but I seriously doubt he'll make the team. When was the last time the Mets featured a Rule V player on the roster for a full season anyway?

I checked with the Mets' official website and made a few other additions to the 40-man roster that I had apparently forgotten about. Since Ambiorix Burgos, Brandon Knight and Jason Vargas have actually appeared in a Mets uniform, it stands to reason that they are on the 40-man until officially released. I imagine Burgos's legal troubles could get him dumped sooner rather then later.

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)
Mike Carp (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

The Blueprint

Here are my off-season plans:

- Sign one starter, and sign/trade for another to join Johan, Pelfrey amd Maine in the rotation. Bye-bye, Pedro and Ollie.
- Trevor Hoffman closes, sign a set-up man in the $3 to $5 million per year range, trade for at least one more reliever and sign a whole mess of veterans to minor-league deals to see if we can catch ligtning in a bottle. Trade Schoenweis for salary relief, give Heilman a chance to start, keep Ayala as a middle reliever and use Feliciano and Smith as specialists.
- No changes to the infield, unless the Mets can sign Mark Teixeira. Then trade Delgado ASAP.
- Sign Adam Dunn to a 5 year, $75 million to play left field. New lineup: Reyes SS, Beltran CF, Delgado/Teixeira 1B, Wright 3B, Dunn LF, Church RF, Schneider C, Castillo 2B, PITCHER Bench: Castro, Murphy, Chavez, Tatis, middle infielder.

Can it be done?

CRITICISM #1: So your going to pay Wagner who is over the hill and hurt and Hoffman who is 50? I would rather have Delgado for one year than Dunn for 5. The guy stinks in the clutch and stinks in the field. Classic "feast or famine" type player. Really bad plan. And who is he trading for??? or signing for the rotation??

Response: Wagner's contract is sunk cost, which is actually why you give a one-year deal to an old guy who can still do the job, but won't command top-dollar. Then, next year you get a guy to the be the long-term closer. Of course, the ideal way of doing things is to develop a closer from within - draft a boatload of college starters, turn one of them into a closer and get quality pitching for a fraction of the free agent cost. Dunn stinks in the field, but his numbers don't change much in the clutch. He could play one year in LF and move to first in 2010.

Who am I trading for? Don't know yet - have to talk to the other 29 GMs and find out. Who am I signing? Depends on the asking price. Can I get Derek Lowe for three years and an option, at $11 million per? Will Ben Sheets sign a deal for the same length of time at $13 million per? Can I get Brad Penny or Freddy Garcia on a one-year deal?

CRITICISM #2: The only thing I disagree with, Jack, is that you still have Castillo as part of the team. Give him and a few hot dogs to a homeless guy and call it a day.

Response: Castillo's value is so low the Mets would have to take a bath on him. It's worth giving him one more year at the bottom of the lineup, where he can walk and bunt for a base hit all he wants, before giving up entirely on him. Plus, if they don't sign Orlando Hudson, who would play there?

Roster Move: Delgado's Option Picked Up

And to what do we owe this burst of creativity this morning? The boss in on the Jersey shore for a conference meeting and I am not sitting in meetings with him all day. Thank God the baseball season is played mostly in the summer, when there aren't any students here, or else this blog would truly die a slow and mostly unnoticed death.

No surprises here - I mean, why make changes to a team that's won nearly 90 games in each of the last two seasons?

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana*
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado*
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis*
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

* - "I'll Be the Judge" recap completed

I'll Be The Judge: Carlos Delgado

2008 Season: It was a tale of two seasons. At the close of business on June 30, Delgado's season line stood at .228/.307/.419 with 14 HR and 45 RBI - pathetically bad numbers for a first baseman. His season output would've been even more embarrassing if it wasn't for a career day on June 27 where Delgado hit two homers and drove in nine runs at Yankee Stadium.

Something happened on July 1, though, and Delgado suddenly began to resemble the slugger he was in the prime his career. He terrorized National League pitching from there on out and put up a .313/.396/.617 line with 24 HR in 300 at-bats the rest of the way. No one really knows why - it has been speculated that it had something to do with the firing of the former manager - but Delgado nevertheless rediscovered his stroke and put up final numbers worthy of his $16 million annual salary.

Contract Status: The Mets had a $12 million club option on Delgado that they exercised at the end of last month. As it stands now, he will be the starting first baseman in 2009.

The Verdict: Picking up Delgado's club option makes sense - keeping him does not. The final 80 games of the season were more likely that not the final death rattles of an engine that is about to blow. Delgado looked hopelessly overmatched at the plate for the first half of the season and had literally no trade value going into the All-Star Break. A season tally of 38 home runs will do wonders for your trade value, even if all signs indicate that such an impressive total will not be duplicated again.

Frankly, Delgado is emblematic of what's been wrong with the Mets over the last two years. He is another quiet clubhouse guy who cannot or will not stand up and take command of a room when this team starts to choke. He is yet another veteran getting overpaid in New York for the numbers he put up for a different ballclub. His post-July 1 production felt so much like a contract drive by a man who suddenly realized he was letting millions of dollars slip away and there's just no reason to believe that, at 37 years old, he will be able to do it again.

I like Mark Teixeira, but I am not a big advocate of committing $20 million-plus a year to him. Let's see Omar Minaya do something creative by shipping Delgado to one of the losers in the Teixeira sweepstakes for a starting pitcher or a left fielder. The free agent market for first basemen is pretty bare after Tex, but Minaya could swing another trade or take a one-year flier on the likes of Jason Giambi or even Doug Mientkiewicz. (Don't laugh about Giambi - he had a higher OPS+ than Delgado last year despite superficially inferior counting stats. That's what happens when you have 140 less at-bats.)

2009 Outlook: The Mets will keep Delgado, because Minaya does not have a creative bone in his body these days. Delgado will get off to yet another terrible start in the first half of the season before rallying somewhat in the second half. The final totals will not match up to 2008 production, but Delgado will fool enough people into believing that he can still hit that risk-averse fans will call for his return in 2010. Minaya - otherwise known as King of the Risk Averse - will concur and will probably offer Delgado a two-year, $30 million extension. I will curse a lot.

HahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaLOLZ!!!

"It surprised me, too," Willie Randolph said. "He had what you call a brainstorm, I guess."

Roster Move: Tatis Signs One-Year Deal

I already gave my opinion on Fernando Tatis's new one-year deal in the previous post. Throughout the off-season, I'm going to update a projected 40-man roster based on whatever moves the Mets make between now and Spring Training. So far, this will simply be a list of players already under contract for 2009, with free agents who were on the 40-man roster in 2008 listed below. I'm not 100 percent sure who is arbitration eigible and who is simply renewable; let me know if I make a mistake.

STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine (arbitration eligible)
Jon Niese (renewable)

RELIEF PITCHERS
Scott Schoeneweis
Aaron Heilman (arbitration eligible)
Pedro Feliciano (arbitration eligible)
Duaner Sanchez (arbitration eligible)
Brian Stokes (renewable)
Joe Smith (renewable)
Eddie Kunz (renewable)
Carlos Muniz (renewable)
Robert Parnell (renewable)

CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Robinson Cancel (renewable)

INFIELDERS
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Daniel Murphy (renewable)
Argenis Reyes (renewable)

OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church (arbitration eligible)
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Fernando Tatis
Angel Pagan (renewable)
Nick Evans (renewable)

FREE AGENTS
Carlos Delgado
Pedro Martinez
Moises Alou
Orlando Hernandez
Oliver Perez
Luis Ayala
Matt Wise
Tony Armas, Jr.
Damion Easley
Brady Clark
Ramon Martinez
Trot Nixon
Abraham Nunez
Ricardo Rincon
Ambiorix Burgos (arbitration eligible)
Jason Vargas (renewable)
Adam Bostick (minor league free agent)
Nelson Figueroa (minor league free agent)
Brandon Knight (renewable)
Gustavo Molina (minor league free agent)
Billy Wagner (out for 2009 season)

I'll Be The Judge: Fernando Tatis

2008 Season: Anytime you win the Comeback Player of the Year award, you can be sure that you had a good campaign. Tatis was out of baseball for two full seasons before signing with the Baltimore organization in 2006. He spent all of 2007 in New Orleans and only made it to the big league roster because of injuries and ineffectiveness among Met outfielders.

But once he made it to New York, what an impact Tatis had. He quickly gained a reputation for clutch performances, knocking several game-winning hits and cementing his place with the big club once Moises Alou and Angel Pagan were lost for the season. A third baseman in the early part of his career, Tatis deserves credit for remaking himself into a utility player in the minor leagues. He'll never be confused for a Gold Glove fielder, but Tatis saw time at all four corner positions this season and only looked truly awful in a few appearances at first base. He mostly played in the outfield and before a September injury ended his season, swung a respectable bat whenever he was placed in the lineup. n all, Tatis was a very pleasant surprise.

Contract Status: The Mets will be bringing Tatis back next season, signing him to a one-year contract earlier today.

The Verdict: This is a typical Omar Minaya move - lock down another veteran who shows a modicum of competence coming off the bench. I don't think that the general manager understands that just because you can sometimes catch lightning in a bottle, it doesn't mean you can bottle it for future use. That said, I guess I'm happy it was only a one-year deal and not a two-year contract like the ones Minaya once gave Julio Franco and Marlon Anderson. How did those deals work out, Mr. Undeserved Four-Year Extension?

2009 Outlook: Tatis will be a right-handed bat off the bench who can play corner infield or corner outfield positions. I seriously doubt that he will hit at anywhere near his 2008 level of production and he will probably be a candidate for a mid-season release.

I'll Be The Judge: Johan Santana

2008 Season: If the 2008 season ended on August 15, Johan Santana's maiden voyage with the Mets would've been considered a disappointment.

After 25 starts, Santana was 10-7 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.173 WHIP - a far cry from his full-season numbers over the previous four campaigns with the Minnesota Twins. A 2.89 ERA is generally nothing to sneeze at, unless the pitcher putting up that number had already been doing so regularly in the American League. The WHIP was even more alarming - Santana was allowing more baserunners per inning than at any time in his career since 2002. It speaks volumes of how much Mets fans were expecting from Santana - if any other starter in the New York rotation put up those kinds of numbers the fans would've been trumpeting him as a Cy Young candidate.

A three-hit shutout against the Pirates on August 17 began a nine-game stretch during which Santana was the best pitcher in the league and cemented his bid for pitching's top prize. As Rome burned around him, Santana continued to provide Mets fans hope every time he took the ball. His complete game shutout on the second-to-last day of the season should go down as one of the clutch pitching performances in franchise history. It was a joy to watch.

The final numbers - 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.148 WHIP - would've looked even prettier had the bullpen not blown so many games that Santana left tied or in the lead. The ERA was right in line with what you would've expected from a transition into a non-DH league, but the WHIP remained surprisingly high based on Santana's last five seasons. A few more hits and a few more walks will do that to you; the Mets will have to hope that Santana has not peaked a little earlier than expected and that the WHIP will return to the 0.950 to 1.050 range next season.

Contract Status: 5 years and $113 million remaining ($21 million in 2009), with a $25 million option for the 2014 season.

The Verdict: Are you kidding me? Santana is the ace of the staff and proved his mettle at a time where most of his teammates failed to do so. He should capably anchor the rotation for the next five seasons and may be a candidate for a second multi-year deal when this one expires in 2013. He is a legitimate #1 starter and one of the five best pitchers in the National League.

2009 Projection: A similar ERA (2.50 to 2.75) with a slightly lower WHIP (in the 1.100 range). If the bullpen stops blowing leads, Santana could win 20 games and a Cy Young Award.

Off-Season Schedule

It's taken 10 days for me to come back to my blog, but I'm ready to begin writing again.

I will be updating throughout the off-season, with a in-depth look at the current 40-man roster (as of October 1, 2008) and its future with the team, as well as any signs, tradings or roster moves. The basic format for the player analysis pieces will include a recap of their 2008 season, predictions for the future and my opinion about whether or not they should remain in the organization.

You might be surprised to hear that I do not think a lot of personnel change is needed. There are certain obvious player additions and subtractions that would benefit the team in 2009, but I think the more necessary change is a philosophical one. The mindset of how this organization is run is what continues to hamstring it - overpaying in free agency for mid-30s veterans, focusing on multi-year deals for established starters instead of holding open competitions for spots once in a while, building a bench entirely of washed-up has-beens instead of giving chances to a young player or someone who was blocked by another organization. These are the things I'll be focusing on during the off-season, even though I realize that ultimately I will be tilting at windmills.

I also hope to get back to some of the theoretical stuff I was writing about earlier in the 2008 season. One of the things I love about baseball is that there are so many strategies, both tested and untested, that can lead to success. Conventional wisdom, more often than not, is the enemy of innovative strategy. I love dissecting the conventional wisdom on certain topics and thinking about new and better ways to succeed. Expect to see a few long-form pieces on these subjects over the next few months.

I root for the New York Mets, but I do not like them. In fact, I have not truly liked them for several years now. I will always be a fan, but there is a perverse side of me that enjoys watching the organization continue to be punished for its failure to innovate. The last two seasons have been particularly excruciating - not just because of the devastating collapses that denied the team of playoff berths, but also because the people who run the franchise simply do not seem to understand that something is fundamentally wrong here.

There IS something fundamentally wrong with the New York Mets. In fact, there are quite a few fundamental problems with this organization. Let's use the next six months to discuss what these problems are, and together let's start coming up with the solutions.

In the end, I want more than just a baseball team to follow. I want a baseball team that I can root for.

Fury

Oh, for Christ's sake.

NEW YORK -- Despite all the expectations, the what-ifs and the could-have-beens, Mets CEO Jeff Wilpon managed to muster a few positives Sunday on the final day of his team's 2008 season.

"I think we overachieved based on what we had," Wilpon said ...

"I think we underachieved last year, and I think we overachieved this year," Wilpon said. "Look who our second baseman was. Look who our left fielder was. Look who was in our bullpen. No Billy Wagner, no John Maine. You can go right down the list of what happened."

And so the Mets, Wilpon insisted, had succeeded simply by being in playoff contention on the season's final Sunday. Though he stopped short of lauding manager Jerry Manuel, saying he needed first to discuss the issue with general manager Omar Minaya, Wilpon indicated that he was quite pleased with the bulk of his uniformed personnel ...

The Mets might not see any momentous personnel changes between now and April, but that's not grounds for pessimism.

So when asked if the Mets are planning on making any significant changes in the coming months, Wilpon simply grinned.

"We are," he said. "We're moving to a new ballpark."

How could Fred Wilpon have made so many millions of dollars in real estate while simultaneously producing a human being so tone-deaf and out of touch? How can you say something like this just hours after the second straight mortifying collapse to end your franchise's season? When is someone finally going to lock Jeffy in the converted luxury suite/ apartment that Daddy made for him so he can stop embarrassing himself and his family?

If this the type of thinking we can expect from the man allegedly in charge of baseball operations, then as fans we may as well just burn this entire franchise to the ground. Hey Sonny Boy, who gave guaranteed contracts to the second baseman (Luis Castillo) and the left fielder (Moises Alou) that you're referring to? Better yet, who counted on Orlando Hernandez to be the #5 starter or signed Marlon Anderson a two-year deal in the offseason? Who put together this $138 million band of "overachievers" that suddenly stopped overachieving in mid-September for the second straight year?

The guy you're about to give a four-year contract extension to, that's who.

Oh, and Billy Wagner was actually on the active roster for four months, Jeffy, and he led the league in blown saves while he was trying to close out games. John Maine only missed the final month of the season, and the Mets went with a four-man rotation nearly half of the time. Why are you making excuses for these losers?

It looks like the manager is coming back, too, although Jerry Manuel's return is far more justifiable than Omar Minaya's. No changes from above, and now the owner's kid is saying not to expect many changes from below either. Exactly what, then, is going to prevent this particular trend from continuing?

2007 Mets: 5-12
2007 Phillies: 13-4

2008 Mets: 7-10
2008 Phillies: 13-3

Disgrace

The 2008 season ended in fitting fashion - at the hands of a bullpen that has more blood on its hands than Lady MacBeth.

If Jerry Manuel made one mistake today, it was in believing that Scott Schoeneweis could get a right-handed batter out when Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez inevitably pinch-hit for Jacobs leading off the eighth inning. He obviously wasn't going to get the lefty-lefty matchup that he wanted; should Manuel have simply let Brian Stokes face Jacobs and take his chances? Well, the result tells us that Stokes couldn't have done any worse.

Then it was Luis Ayala, whose batting practice 3-2 fastball ended up in the bleachers courtesy of Dan Uggla. At that point it was time to offer silent prayers to the God who has ignored us so many times before and hope that somehow, the Cubs would find a way to outlast the Brewers. Minutes later Ryan Braun hit a two-run homer to give the Milwaukee the lead; don't expect to see me in church anytime soon.

So it's over now, with the death blow delivered by the Florida Marlins for the second straight season. Blood should flow throughout the concourses of Citi Field this off-season, from the general manager's office all the way down to the home team's clubhouse. Massive change is badly needed, but with the Wilpons inexplicably leaking word of a four-year extension fpr Omar Minaya earlier this week, there's little reason to believe that such massive change will take place.

This isn't Jerry Manuel's fault, of course, but he probably has to go too. Any reminders of the horrors we've seen over the last two years must be completely scrubbed out, and that includes the job of a man who really deserves better. Manuel will land on his feet; he deserves a shot at one of the vacant managerial jobs in the off-season.

As for me, I'd still love to see Bobby Valentine or Wally Backman given the manager's chair, but the Wilpons will probably hand the job over to a retread with a recognizable name and a timid personality. This is a loser franchise, after all, and they will surely go for another loser instead of taking a chance on someone who might upset the apple cart while winning ballgames.

There can be little to complain about with Oliver Perez's performance, even though he probably shouldn't be asked to return next season. He was simply brilliant for five innings, and economical enough that he could've easily lasted eight innings if he remained effective. Cameron Maybin's double to lead off the sixth came on a 1-2 pitch at the conclusion of a tough at-bat, and the Marlins dunked in two straight singles that were really more about fortuitous placement than getting good wood on the ball.

Manuel was right to go to Joe Smith when he did, with one out and the bases loaded in the sixth inning. The 1-1 pitch to Josh Willingham was a strike, but that doesn't excuse the next two pitches that were clearly out of the strike zone. Smith made the best of a bad situation after that, getting a pop up and a ground out to get out of the inning. The game was going to be in the hands of The Arson Squad at that point, and we all knew what that was going to mean.

My only other quibble was starting Ryan Church in right field, who has looked terrible this weekend and for large portions of the second half of the season. He looked completely lost at the plate again today, striking out in his first three at-bats, and Church brought nothing to the table that couldn't have been replaced or improved by Endy Chavez or even fan favorite Daniel Murphy.

Then again, Nick Evans made a rookie mistake by throwing to third on Mike Jacobs's deep fly ball to left, and that may have indirectly led to second run of the sixth inning. There are people don't understand why the Mets would shop for a natural left fielder after the season. They think that a platoon of Murphy and Evans should suffice.

What those people do not undertsand is that an infielder's instincts are not easy to overcome and do not automatically translate to the outfield. If you have any doubt about that, look at the play Chavez made to reel in the third out of the seventh inning. Is there any doubt that ball would've sailed over the head or Evans or Murphy and driven in the go-ahead run for the Marlins?

That's not a knock on either rookie, each of whom may have a place on the 2009 Mets anyway. Murphy has spent most of his professional career at third base, while Evans has mostly played first. It's not enough to go out and read Outfield Fundamentals for Dummies; a true outfielder understands that the ball absolutely must go to second base there, to keep the baserunner on first and allow the pitcher an opportunity to get a double play.

If Evans throws to the right base after corralling that first out, Perez might have been left in the game to face Dan Uggla, who has struggled mightily this season against left-handers. Uggla has only grounded into 10 double plays this season, but he has also struck out over 170 times and would've been a great match-up for Perez. It's all academic now, but the simple act of having to play two rookie infielders out of position for so much of the season had a profound effect on this game.

As for me, I don't know when I'll be able to come back to this blog again. It is a catalogue of failure, six months of abject failure, and there is no other way to look at this lost season. I have had my heart ripped out of my throat by this baseball team for three straight years now, and I don't know how or why I'm supposed to come back for more. Perhaps the closing of Shea Stadium closes a chapter of my life even more completely than I could've ever imagined.

I just don't see how much longer this relationship can continue.

Goodbye

Florida - Top of 1st
(Johan Santana pitching for New York)
H Ramirez flied out to right.
J Baker struck out swinging.
J Cantu singled to left.
J Willingham grounded out to pitcher.

My first Mets game was September 8, 1986, against the Montreal Expos. One of my aunts - whose deepest connection to the New York Mets was her undying affection for Lee Mazzilli - got tickets and took me to the game with a friend of hers. I had already been to three Yankee games with my father and one more with other family members, but this was the first time I had ever stepped foot in Shea Stadium.

The game itself wasn't memorable except for the promotional giveaway - a 1986 Mets pennant that hung on my bedroom wall for many years afterwards. But after the game, my aunt let me wait outside the Diamond Club to see if I could get autographs from the players. I saw Tim McCarver and Ralph Kiner and may have even gotten their autographs; Sid Fernandez nearly knocked me over as rushed through the crowd to his car. But the highlight of that night was briefly meeting current Met broadcaster Ron Darling, who stopped to sign my pennant and to talk to me.

"Relax kid!" Darling laughed as he signed his name. "You're only 10 years old and you're going to have a heart attack!"

Florida - Top of 2nd
D Uggla struck out swinging.
C Ross grounded out to shortstop.
W Helms struck out swinging.

I've only been to one Mets game with my father, but it's a game that we still talk about to this day. It was August 20, 1989, and the Mets were playing Los Angeles at Shea. The Dodgers had a young pitcher named Ramon Martinez on the mound and a Dodger fan behind us told his buddy to "keep an eye on this kid, he's going to be good." Martinez would win 20 games for the Dodgers the very next season.

You wouldn't have known it that day; the Mets knocked Martinez out before the fifth inning was over and held a 3-1 lead going into the ninth inning. Don Aase, in the twilight of an unremarkable career, had taken over for Sid Fernandez in the seventh inning and was still on the mound to close it out. Can you imagine - a reliever like Aase being asked to get an seven-out save!?

But there he was, mustache and all, still on the mound after getting the first two batters out in the ninth inning. Then Lenny Harris stroked a single, Alfredo Griffin bunted (!) for a base hit and the game was suddenly in doubt. Manager Davey Johnson had Randy Myers available in the bullpen, but decided to stick with Aase to see things through.

The next batter took the very first Aase offering and deposited it over the right-field fence to give the Dodgers a shocking 4-3 lead. It was his first home run in 463 at-bats that season and, in my opinion, sounded the death knell of the 1989 season for the New York Mets. Had they held on to win, the Mets would've only been 1.5 games behind the N.L. East-leading Cubs. Instead, they went 19-20 the rest of the way and finished well out of the money.

So who hit that season-changing home run, you ask? Willie F***ing Randolph, that's who. The man has been haunting me for nearly 20 years now!

Florida - Top of 3rd
J Hermida struck out swinging.
R Nolasco struck out looking.
H Ramirez grounded out to third.

I didn't start going to Mets games regularly until I was freshman in high school. I don't know how we pulled it off, but me and Joey Walnuts somehow got permission to leave school early to go to Opening Day 1991 against the Phillies. It was the first of 14 straight home openers I attended at Shea, an annual ritual that has spanned so many chapters in my life.

In high school, when tickets at Shea were cheap and plentiful, I used to go to 15-20 games a year. Most of those games were in the upper deck, including June 25, 1992 against the Cubs. It was the final day of our sophomore year of high school, so Walnuts and I rounded up a bunch of people to go to the game. The Mets took the field that season to the tune of "What I Like About You" by the Romantics - the same song playing on Friday night when Mike Pelfrey came to bat for the Mets.

I remember sitting in my seat next to a girl that I met for the first time that day - a friend of Big Boy who he grew up with in Forest Hills - and kicking our feet in rhythm to the song. We were all having so much fun - even after the Cubs put up seven runs in the first inning - that no one really noticed Greg Maddux was pitching a no-hitter. Chico Walker finally broke it up with two outs in the sixth inning, but the Cubs still cruised to a 9-0 win.

Florida - Top of 4th
J Baker grounded out to second.
J Cantu popped out to shortstop.
J Willingham walked.
D Uggla grounded out to third.

The girl from Forest Hills was the first girl I ever went to a baseball game with. At this point in my life, the only girl I'll take to Shea Stadium is my fiancee. Although she roots for the Yankees and only puts up with the Mets out of necessity, she still likes to go to a game with me on occasion. Last month, realizing that she was running out of chances to see Shea Stadium one last time, she asked if I would take her to a game before the season ended. On a Friday night in August, we saw Johan Santana and Roy Oswalt lock horns in a terrific pitcher's duel that ended 3-0 in the Mets' favor. The seats were in the upper deck, but only three rows into the upper reserved seats. It was as high as she was willing to go.

The Franchise and I have been to several games since we started dating five years ago, and each time we go she only has one request. She doesn't like the steep upper deck at Shea and doesn't want to sit in any seat high enough to make her nervous. I know she's going to like Citi Field much better than Shea Stadium - she'll never have to sit that high up again!

Florida - Top of 5th
C Ross singled to left.
W Helms flied out to center.
J Hermida walked, C Ross to second.
R Nolasco sacrificed to catcher, C Ross to third, J Hermida to second.
H Ramirez intentionally walked.
J Baker lined out to right.

I've been to four playoff games in Mets history and the Mets have won three of them. I've been lucky enough to see two of the most exciting moments in Shea Stadium's playoff history - both walk-off home runs by unlikely heroes.

Walnuts and I saw Todd Pratt lift the Mets into the 1999 National League Championship Series with a game-winning home run off Matt Mantei that just missed Steve Finley's glove as it sailed over the center-field fence. As the stadium wildly celebrated afterwards, Walnuts was heard to scream over and over again, "We're the Champs! We're the Champions!" When asked what, exactly, were the Mets now the champions of, he stopped for a moment and screamed, "We're the Champions of the Wild Card!"

Nearly a year to the day later, Suburbia and I braved the elements to watch Benny Agbayani hit a game-winning home run in the bottom of the 13th inning to give the Mets a 2-1 lead in their NLDS series with the Giants. I brain-locked before leaving the house and wore shorts to the game; this even though we were sitting in the upper deck for a night game in October with the winds swirling throughout the stadium. I have never been so cold in my life!

Florida - Top of 6th
J Cantu flied out to right.
J Willingham flied out to center.
D Uggla struck out swinging.

Not all of my memories of Shea are so kind. I was in the ballpark for the final game of the 2000 World Series, sitting in the upper deck and surrounded by Yankee fans. I saw every hop of Luis Sojo's ninth-inning RBI single that proved to be the margin of victory, and I will tell you to this day that Rey Ordonez would've fielded that ball with ease. I saw Mike Piazza hit a ball in the bottom of the ninth inning deep into the Shea night, that I was sure was going to land somewhere in the bleachers and tie the score. It landed in Bernie Williams' glove instead, and the nightmare of watching the hated Yankees celebrate a World Championship in Shea Stadium makes me cringe to this day.

My night didn't end there, though. I had gotten the tickets from an ex-girlfriend who worked for a TV sports outlet, and had to wait outside the stadium for 90 minutes afterwards for their coverage to finish up so I could drive her and a co-worker back to Brooklyn. It was 90 minutes of watching Yankee fans giddily celebrating their third straight championship and mercilessly taunting Mets fans. It was the kind of night that made you question your faith in a benevolent God.

Florida - Top of 7th
C Ross flied out to center.
W Helms flied out to left.
J Hermida grounded out to third.

In 2002, I went on a 12-day "Tour of Baseball" with Scoop and GI Joe, where we saw a ballgame in 11 different stadiums between New York and Chicago. (We spent one of those days, between Boston and Toronto, at Cooperstown). It was an amazing trip that I will never forget, because I got to watch a ballgame in some of the best stadiums in the country.

You see, if you grew up a baseball fan in New York in last 45 years or so, you have no idea how badly you've been cheated. Shea Stadium, for all the memories it has given me, is the worst stadium in the National League. It is ugly, it is dirty, it lacks concessions or other amenities and has all the charm and ambiance of a municipal football stadium from the 1970s. (And trust me, Yankee Stadium is nearly as bad; anyone who waxes poetic about Yankee Stadium is either delusional or has never been in any other major league ballpark.)

I got to see PNC Park in Pittsburgh on my Tour of Baseball, the most beautiful venue for watching a ballgame I've ever been to. I saw the new Comiskey Park in Chicago, which is a lot like Shea Stadium except that it is cleaner, more visually appealing and has an outdoor shower in left field for cooling off on hot days. Even old Veterans Stadium in Philadelphia, a charmless cookie cutter of a ballpark that featured artificial turf for a playing surface, was cleaner and more interesting than Shea Stadium.

The Tour ended at Shea Stadium, where we invited family and friends to meet us in the deepest reaches of the upper deck in left field. After 12 days on the road, it was great to be home and to see friendly faces, but sitting in Shea paled in comparions to the wonderful ballparks we had just seen. I realize now that the 15 or 20 games I used to be good for steadily turned into 5 or 10 a year after that trip. Shea Stadium has always looked better on television than in person.

Florida - Top of 8th
P Lo Duca hit for R Nolasco.
P Lo Duca flied out to center.
H Ramirez grounded out to shortstop.
J Baker struck out looking.

I can't believe that this is happening all over again. The Mets entered the final weekend of the 2008 season with three home games against the Marlins, desperately needing to win at least two out of three to make the playoffs. The Mets lost the first game of the series last night, just like they did in 2007. The difference was that, unlike 2007, I was in the ballpark yesterday to see their lifeless performance in person. There's not much more to be said about the game, other than to say it was so bad that I had to convince myself to go to the ballpark today in the hopes that it would leave me with a better final memory of Shea Stadium.

As it turns out, I was also in the ballpark for the second-to-last game of the 2007 season. John Maine provided what was, to that point, the best pitching performance I had ever seen in person. He went 7 2/3 innings before giving up a hit, to the backup catcher Paul Hoover, who nubbed a ball between third base and the pitcher's mound to beat out an infield single. If I ever meet Paul Hoover on the street I will punch him in the face for ruining my best chance at seeing a no-hitter.

That game was also memorable because it was the only game I have ever seen from a luxury box at Shea, courtesy of my cousin's wife. We stayed in the suite for well over an hour afterwards, watching the Phillies play the Nationals and praying for a Washington victory. Things went completely to hell less than 24 hours later.

Florida - Top of 9th
E Chavez in left field.
J Cantu struck out swinging.
J Willingham doubled to deep left center.
D Uggla struck out swinging.
C Ross flied out to left.

Upper Deck, Section 1, Row K, Seat 9.

This is where I sat to watch the last game I will ever see at Shea Stadium. I've been to over 300 games in the last 22 years and have sat in every single part of the stadium at least once. I have actually been on the playing surface of Shea Stadium on two occasions, one of those times during the off-season when Walnuts and I were still in high school. We snuck into the stadium and ran around like children, leaping against the outfield fence and robbing batters of imaginary home runs the same way Endy Chavez did in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. The other time was after a long-forgotten day game during a DynaMets Dash, when Rock Star and I jumped over the field level barrier and ran the bases with the rest of the little kids. Frank Howard was the first-base coach then and he slapped hands with me as I rounded first base.

I don't know what's going to happen on the final day of the 2008 season, so I wanted to write this down before the emotion of what's about to happen clouds my judgment. My greatest Shea Stadium memory was also my last, and I walked out of the stadium today still amazed at what had taken place.

It was the greatest pitching performance I have ever seen in person, in any stadium, and Johan Santana did it under the most adverse of conditions. He was starting on three days' rest for the first time in his career during the regular season. He did it on a rainy Saturday afternoon on a day the Mets could've been eliminated from the playoffs. He did it in front of a fan base that was ready to turn on their team at a moment's notice, and may well do so tomorrow afternoon if Oliver Perez can't turn in a quality start. It was nothing less than heroic.

Tomorrow's game is all that matters now, and I will never step foot in Shea Stadium again. I hope whoever goes to the game tomorrow will get to look back on their final memories of Shea as fondly as I will of mine.

Alive

Well, I didn't see that coming.

If the Mets are still standing on Monday morning, it will be because of one of the ugliest plays in baseball you could ever hope to see. I don't know how Ryan Church evaded Koyie Hill's tag and I don't want to know. I will simply choose to think of that play as a small sign from the baseball gods that maybe, just maybe, this team isn't dead yet.

It's the type of play that becomes part of a franchise's folklore, something that fans flash back to years later when recalling their memories of a particular season. And of course, because these are the Mets, it has to be said that the play never should've happened in the first place.

Church brainlocked earlier in the inning and didn't follow Carlos Beltran on the back end of a double-steal attempt. Instead, Church had to try to score from first on Robinson Cancel's double and by all rights should've been a dead duck.

That's the Mets for you - why do things the easy way if there's a more difficult and agonizing path to take?

Church blows the double-steal and Luis Aguayo sends him around third base even though the throw home beats him to the plate by 15 feet. Somehow it works out. Daniel Murphy brain-locks in the ninth and tries to bunt three balls out of the strike zone, one of which was on a 2-2 count while Jose Reyes gets a tremendous jump on a steal attempt. Somehow it works out.

These are the games the Mets have been losing for the last two weeks or so. Last night they finally reached a point where, as hard as they tried to bumble away another desperately needed victory, they simply could not close the deal. For once, we can be glad about that!

So three games to go and the division is still realisitically in play. The Phillies are playing the Nationals and there's no reason to believe they won't take 2 out of 3. The Marlins are back in town to finish the regular season against the Mets and itching to play spoiler again. Everyone remembers how 2007 ended; the Mets have a unique chance at redemption against the team that delivered the final blow last season. Win all three games and the Mets clinch at least a tie for a playoff berth, and since I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Cubs this weekend, it will guarantee at least the Loser's Reward.

I'm supposed to have tickets for tonight's game, but I have little hope it's going to actually get played. From what I understand of the weather pattern, tomorrow's game is in jeopardy as well, which threatens the commissioner's office mandate to finish the regular season by Sunday night. Maybe Saturday's game turns into a 7:10 start and they play a single-admission doubleheader on Sunday?

It's been terrible rooting for the Mets for the last two weeks, but at least we're playing meaningful baseball this weekend. That's more than I can say for the guys on the other side of town!

Once Again, Nice and Slow ...

Playoff teams win games like these. I've been taking shots here for the last 48 hours by making one simple declaration - the New York Mets do not deserve to make the playoffs this season. After another embarrassing loss tonight and after having lost 7 of their last 11 games, who could possibly argue otherwise?

Baseball Prospectus has a sortable Run Expectancy Matrix on their site, which highlights just how profoundly the Mets failed tonight once Oliver Perez left the game in the fifth inning. The Mets got the leadoff runner on base on five straight occasions, between the fifth and the ninth innings. The REM shows that the average team in 2008 can expect to score 6.83 runs in those situations. The Mets scored one run. Tell me again why this team deserves to be in the postseason?

As for Ollie, he was just awful. I haven't even addressed the looming specter of Omar Minaya's undeserved four-year extension yet, but if it's true and the Mets are stuck with Minaya until 2012, my first request is that he lets Perez walk in the off-season. No one was asking for a repeat of Johan Santana's wonderful performance last night, but I don't think a quality start is too much to ask from a guy who thinks he deserves a multi-year deal averaging at least $10 million a season.

Four games to go and the Mets are still trailing the Phillies by 1.5 games. The Brewers have pulled even in the race for the Loser's Prize. What fresh horrors await Met fans this weekend? I don't even want to think about it.

Where's Jack?

See if you can find the Featured Blogger in these pictures:

I Must Be in the Front Row!

Chicago stopped into my office around 2 pm yesterday and casually asked me what I was doing later that night. Turns out, he had tickets for the Mets-Cubs game and the guy he planned on going with couldn't make it. Something about not having enough time to get a baby-sitter for his newborn baby - is there any better argument for postponing procreation?

Anyway, I jumped all over it and had my student worker run across campus to pick up the ticket from him later that day. I knew something was up when she handed it back to me - Field Level, Section 147, Row AA. I had never even heard of that row, but a quick check on the soon-to-be-outdated seating revealed that we would be sitting in deep right field. Box seats at Shea!

Fast forward to about 6:45, when I hopped off the 7 train and met Chicago in front of Gate D. We walk into the stadium, grab a few beers and find our way to the section. As I start to walk down the aisle to find the seats, I begin to notice that it's taking an awful long time to reach Row AA. As we get closer and closer to the field, our progress was stopped by a simple chain blocking off the auxiliary stands from the regular orange seats. No usher was there to direct us, but all of a sudden it dawned on me - Chicago had come up with front-row seats for the game!

I have only sat front row once before - a Mets-Pirates doubleheader in the early 90s on a sweltering June day that was so hot I actually considering leaving the stadium to find some air conditioning. Those seats were behind the Mets dugout, the seats where you actually place your drink on the top of the dugout itself. These seats had nothing but a small plywood wall blocking access to the field and allowed for a ground-level view of the entire stadium. It was amazing.

Now Chicago, as you may have guessed from the nickname, is a Cubs fan. He is not shy about this fact. Actually, Chicago isn't shy about much of anything, as I soon found out. The last time he went to a Mets-Cubs game at Shea, he happily informed me, he had an entire beer poured over his head for celebrating too enthusiastically. When I asked how that matter was resolved, he cryptically informed me that he "took care of it."

The chatter began from Johan Santana's first pitch and didn't end until Chicago left in the bottom of the fifth because of a late-night staff meeting on campus. He leapt out of his seat in celebration for every Cubs hit and cheered wildly for every Mets out. He happily celebrated along with the many Cubs fans around us and laughed off the verbal assaults from the Mets fans who weren't expecting his antics.

I used to be like that. I used to have so much joy and enthusiasm for being at a Mets game that I would be rooting along with every at-bat, standing and clapping for every two-strike pitch, screaming at umpires for every bad call. Now, I sit sullenly and complain about the noise betwen every pitch, the incompetence of the worst players on the field or the lack of vision the front office has for roster construction.

Somehow, Chicago has retained the simple joy of going to a game and rooting hard for your favorite team. Maybe that's what happens when you still actually like the team you root for, instead of following them out of force of habit.

I realized last night that I haven't really liked the Mets for years. I like individual players, of course, and I want the team to win every time they play, but there is an animosity toward the Mets always bubbling right beneath the surface. It probably started sometime around 2003, when the Wilpons decided Art Howe could light up a room with his winning personality. Things eventually got so bad that I actually began a personal boycott after the 2005 season, in response to how disgusted I was with The Former Manager's ineptitude. In that wonderful 2006 season I only went to three games, all because someone dropped free tickets on me.

Last year, of course, was a disaster that shook the foundation of any Met fan's faith. Watching them spit the bit in 2008 has brought all that animosity right back up again, as you have no doubt noticed in the last few days.

Anyway, Chicago's enthusiasm rubbed off on me a bit. I started chattering as well, exhorting Santana through the difficult early innings and rooting on the Met hitters to finally break through against Sean Marshall. The fifth and sixth innings finally brought some satisfaction, although it was disappointing that I didn't have a chance to give Chicago a taste of his own medicine at the end of a 6-2 victory.

As for the game itself, Santana was brilliant. He strugled through the early innings, no doubt, but acted like an ace by finding his rhythm, continuing to grind away and pitching a scoreless eighth inning to take some pressure off of The Arson Squad. The off-season trade for Santana has been an unqualified success, at least for 2008, and there's no reason to believe he won't be a top-of-the-rotation ace for years to come. If he's pitching in the last game of the season with a playoff berth on the line, the Mets will be in capable hands.

The seats were, as I mentioned before, amazing, and it was a terrific way to see my second-to-last game at Shea Stadium. I'll be there one last time on Friday night, in Row C of Section 24 in the Upper Deck (you can buy me a beer if you're there). Here's a picture of me and Mr. Met last night - don't bother using the tired old joke about who has the bigger head, it's played out!