* I was very happy to see Willie Randolph give Aaron Heilman a second inning of work tonight. After he struck out the side in the eighth, I called Tim to give him the business for hating on Heilman so much. We both agreed that if the Mets didn't score in the bottom of the inning that Heilman should be given another opportunity. Randolph agreed and was rewarded with a 1-2-3 inning.
* I questioned the decision to use Damion Easley at first base and Nick Evans in left field for the second straight night. Evans is more adept at first than Easley is, so it seemed like a natural decision to play him there. It didn't seem to matter, though, and the announcers even commented on slick footwork around the bag by Easley on that slow chopper to short in the ninth inning.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
My All-Star Ballot
What do you think? I was amazed to see the difference in quality between the National League players and the American League players. All of a sudden the NL looks much better than their counterparts; maybe it will finally lead to an All-Star Game victory.
Quit Clamoring to Clip Carlos (Flushing University)
It's natural for Mets fans to want to see some changes, as the team continues to bungle through the 2008 season. But as bad as he's been so far, the Amazins have no realistic alternatives for Carlos Delgado. Read more here ...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Memorial Day
Don't worry about the Mets today. Willie Randolph will still be here tomorrow, or he won't. Go to a parade, then go to a barbeque. See you on Tuesday.
Saturday, May 24, 2008
First Guessing: 5/24/08
The Mets are leading 7-2 in the eighth inning today and have a man on second base with no one out. The pitcher's spot is coming up, but Claudio Vargas has gone seven innings and that's probably enough. He's only thrown 102 pitches, but it's on three days' rest. The entire bench is available - Raul Casanova, Brian Schneider, Damion Easley, Ryan Church and Endy Chavez. Church probably still isn't available because of his head injury.
Question: why use Endy Chavez as a pinch hitter? First of all, he's not hitting. Second of all, he's the only other outfielder on the roster right now. Nick Evans and Fernando Tatis are the corner outfielders for the Mets today; perhaps Chavez would be better used a defensive replacement for one of them?
Result: Chavez grounds out, because he can't hit his weight right now, but Luis Castillo dunks a double down the line to plate the eighth run of the game.
Question: why use Endy Chavez as a pinch hitter? First of all, he's not hitting. Second of all, he's the only other outfielder on the roster right now. Nick Evans and Fernando Tatis are the corner outfielders for the Mets today; perhaps Chavez would be better used a defensive replacement for one of them?
Result: Chavez grounds out, because he can't hit his weight right now, but Luis Castillo dunks a double down the line to plate the eighth run of the game.
Crosstown Traffic
The Mets are playing later today; perhaps the dawning of the Nick Evans era will prove to be the beginning of something special.
In the meantime, I'm watching the Yankee game and the second step in Joba Chamberlain's transformation back into a starting pitcher. I'm really excited to watch this process unfold, not because I want the Yankees to get better, but because I'm enjoying the way they are going about this process.
First things first: in case there was any lingering doubt, a starting pitcher is more important than an eighth-inning setup man. Locking down the eighth inning means absolutely nothing if you aren't ahead after the first seven innings of the game. There's a reason that the highest paid starter in baseball has a six-year, $137 million contract and the highest paid reliever has a three-year, $45 million contract. Setup men make even less than closers. The Yankees are making the right decision by giving Chamberlain a chance to see what he can do as a starter - if the experiement is successful, he will become more valuable to his team than he is already.
The process by which the Yankees are doing this is a little riskier, but it is a throwback to an earlier era where young starting pitchers were broken in as middle relievers. I've always thought this was a good way of doing things; when I finally get around to writing more about constructing a pitching staff I'll explain why.
That said, the Yankees constructed their staff this year with Chamberlain as their second-best reliever. There is a huge dropoff from there - Latroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth are probably the best relievers the Yankees have after Chamberlain, which is another way of saying that the Yankees have a terrible bullpen outside of Mariano Rivera. Now that Chamberlain is in the process of being stretched out, manager Joe Girardi has two to three innings a night that he may have to entrust to a collection of inferior middle relievers. Rivera can't suddenly start recording two-inning saves regularly, so the rest of the motley crew that the Yankees are employing in the 'pen are going to be pitching in some high leverage situations. The first blown lead that leads to a Yankee loss will be endlessly scrutinized in New York.
The other problem revolves around Chamberlain's performance itself. The Yankees have a 7-4 sixth inning lead as I write this, in a game that they obviously don't want to lose. Chamberlain threw 16 first pitch innings and needs to throw another 35 or so to complete this outing. What if Chamberlain gets torched for four runs in the next 25 pitches? Is Girardi going to pull him if they're trailing 8-7 and short-circuit the stretching out process, to minimize the risk of losing one game? Or are they going to leave him out there for the last 10-15 pitches and risk a deeper deficit? A team that's already off to a slow start and has championship aspirations can't risk more losses, but if Chamberlain isn't allowed to get his work in then it will extend the amount of time before he's truly ready to join the starting rotation.
So yes, it's a risk, and although it's an innovative idea, the move can have negative short-term repercussions for the Yankees. I'm looking forward to seeing how committed they will be to this process, even if it costs the team two or three wins.
Now you're probably saying to yourself, "You know, Jack, you're really good looking and you obviously have forgotten more about baseball then Tim Walsh will ever know. But Tim is always bitching that Aaron Heilman should be made into a starter and you're always resisting. What gives?"
Well, I'll tell you "what gives," Sparky. Heilman failed as a starter and was converted into a reliever, where he found immediate success. Chamberlain was never given the opportunity to do so on the major league level. He went directly into the Yankees bullpen last summer, even as he was tearing up the minor leagues as a starter. It's been less than one year since Chamberlain made his last start; three years have past since Heilman last took the mound in the first inning.
Long story short, I don't think Aaron Heilman is a starter anymore. I think he is a reliever, and I think his body of work in the last three seasons holds more weight than his poor performance in the first seven weeks of 2008. Trying to re-convert him now smacks of impatience and desperation and I still don't think the Mets should do it.
That said, talk to me on July 1 and I might have a different answer. If the Mets are, say, 10 games out of first place and going nowhere fast, then I might consider it. Johan Santana and John Maine are the only two competent starters under contract for next year (Mike Pelfrey doesn't count). The way Oliver Perez has been pitching, I think I'm about ready to take the two draft picks at the end of the season and be done with it. He's a talented starter, but too inconsistent and not worth the money it will take to sign him as a free agent.
The 2009 rotation will have Santana and Maine at the top and Pelfrey at the bottom. Perhaps Heilman should be stretched out, even if it's done during the off-season, and give him a shot at the fourth spot in the rotation. Six weeks from now, maybe the Mets can follow the new Joba Rules and apply them to Aaron Heilman. Just not before.
In the meantime, I'm watching the Yankee game and the second step in Joba Chamberlain's transformation back into a starting pitcher. I'm really excited to watch this process unfold, not because I want the Yankees to get better, but because I'm enjoying the way they are going about this process.
First things first: in case there was any lingering doubt, a starting pitcher is more important than an eighth-inning setup man. Locking down the eighth inning means absolutely nothing if you aren't ahead after the first seven innings of the game. There's a reason that the highest paid starter in baseball has a six-year, $137 million contract and the highest paid reliever has a three-year, $45 million contract. Setup men make even less than closers. The Yankees are making the right decision by giving Chamberlain a chance to see what he can do as a starter - if the experiement is successful, he will become more valuable to his team than he is already.
The process by which the Yankees are doing this is a little riskier, but it is a throwback to an earlier era where young starting pitchers were broken in as middle relievers. I've always thought this was a good way of doing things; when I finally get around to writing more about constructing a pitching staff I'll explain why.
That said, the Yankees constructed their staff this year with Chamberlain as their second-best reliever. There is a huge dropoff from there - Latroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth are probably the best relievers the Yankees have after Chamberlain, which is another way of saying that the Yankees have a terrible bullpen outside of Mariano Rivera. Now that Chamberlain is in the process of being stretched out, manager Joe Girardi has two to three innings a night that he may have to entrust to a collection of inferior middle relievers. Rivera can't suddenly start recording two-inning saves regularly, so the rest of the motley crew that the Yankees are employing in the 'pen are going to be pitching in some high leverage situations. The first blown lead that leads to a Yankee loss will be endlessly scrutinized in New York.
The other problem revolves around Chamberlain's performance itself. The Yankees have a 7-4 sixth inning lead as I write this, in a game that they obviously don't want to lose. Chamberlain threw 16 first pitch innings and needs to throw another 35 or so to complete this outing. What if Chamberlain gets torched for four runs in the next 25 pitches? Is Girardi going to pull him if they're trailing 8-7 and short-circuit the stretching out process, to minimize the risk of losing one game? Or are they going to leave him out there for the last 10-15 pitches and risk a deeper deficit? A team that's already off to a slow start and has championship aspirations can't risk more losses, but if Chamberlain isn't allowed to get his work in then it will extend the amount of time before he's truly ready to join the starting rotation.
So yes, it's a risk, and although it's an innovative idea, the move can have negative short-term repercussions for the Yankees. I'm looking forward to seeing how committed they will be to this process, even if it costs the team two or three wins.
Now you're probably saying to yourself, "You know, Jack, you're really good looking and you obviously have forgotten more about baseball then Tim Walsh will ever know. But Tim is always bitching that Aaron Heilman should be made into a starter and you're always resisting. What gives?"
Well, I'll tell you "what gives," Sparky. Heilman failed as a starter and was converted into a reliever, where he found immediate success. Chamberlain was never given the opportunity to do so on the major league level. He went directly into the Yankees bullpen last summer, even as he was tearing up the minor leagues as a starter. It's been less than one year since Chamberlain made his last start; three years have past since Heilman last took the mound in the first inning.
Long story short, I don't think Aaron Heilman is a starter anymore. I think he is a reliever, and I think his body of work in the last three seasons holds more weight than his poor performance in the first seven weeks of 2008. Trying to re-convert him now smacks of impatience and desperation and I still don't think the Mets should do it.
That said, talk to me on July 1 and I might have a different answer. If the Mets are, say, 10 games out of first place and going nowhere fast, then I might consider it. Johan Santana and John Maine are the only two competent starters under contract for next year (Mike Pelfrey doesn't count). The way Oliver Perez has been pitching, I think I'm about ready to take the two draft picks at the end of the season and be done with it. He's a talented starter, but too inconsistent and not worth the money it will take to sign him as a free agent.
The 2009 rotation will have Santana and Maine at the top and Pelfrey at the bottom. Perhaps Heilman should be stretched out, even if it's done during the off-season, and give him a shot at the fourth spot in the rotation. Six weeks from now, maybe the Mets can follow the new Joba Rules and apply them to Aaron Heilman. Just not before.
Roster Move: Anderson Placed on 15-Day DL
God forgive me, I actually pumped my fist when I saw Marlon Anderson pull up lame on the basepaths last night. I have nothing personal against Marlon, of course - the man couldn't pick me out of a lineup and I would never put him in one in the first place. It's such a sad state of affairs when you need a player to injure himself just to save the manager and the general manger from themselves.
Anderson was batting .173 with a .204 OBP going into the game last night, and yet there he was, batting sixth for the second straight contest, the second of four straight left-handed batters in a lineup that must make LOOGYs around baseball salivate. Still, the Anderson fiasco is more Omar Minaya's fault than Willie Randolph's - the general manager signed a pinch-hitter to a two-year deal while putting together a 40-man roster with woeful outfield depth, a roster so lacking in outfield talent that a catcher had to be called up when Moises Alou went on the disabled list earlier this week.
So Anderson is out for some time and word on the street is that Nick Evans will be getting recalled from Binghamton to join the big club today. What a sad indictment of the roster down at New Orleans. Brady Clark would've been in line for the recall, but he had microfracture surgery on his knee this week and is out for the season. The Zephyrs have three other right handed or switch-hitting outfielders available (Victor Mendez, Val Pascucci and Chris Aguila), but they were all passed over for the 22-year-old Evans. Mendez is the youngest of the group at 27, so what are any of them doing in the Mets' farm system if a C prospect from the B-Mets merits a recall before them?
Anyway, Evans has been splitting time between first base and left field this season - scouts say that he can't play either position very well. But he is a right-handed outfielder below the age of 27 that can hit a little bit, which is what passes for a prospect in the minor league system these days. God save us all.
The only question I'm still waiting for an answer on is whether or not Evans can be added directly to the 40-man roster or if someone is going to need to be released first. The 40-man roster on the Mets' website only lists 38 players; I'll update this space once I can find out the particulars. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Claudio Vargas
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Matt Wise
Joe Smith
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Raul Casanova
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Nick Evans
Endy Chavez
Moises Alou - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Marlon Anderson - DL
Anderson was batting .173 with a .204 OBP going into the game last night, and yet there he was, batting sixth for the second straight contest, the second of four straight left-handed batters in a lineup that must make LOOGYs around baseball salivate. Still, the Anderson fiasco is more Omar Minaya's fault than Willie Randolph's - the general manager signed a pinch-hitter to a two-year deal while putting together a 40-man roster with woeful outfield depth, a roster so lacking in outfield talent that a catcher had to be called up when Moises Alou went on the disabled list earlier this week.
So Anderson is out for some time and word on the street is that Nick Evans will be getting recalled from Binghamton to join the big club today. What a sad indictment of the roster down at New Orleans. Brady Clark would've been in line for the recall, but he had microfracture surgery on his knee this week and is out for the season. The Zephyrs have three other right handed or switch-hitting outfielders available (Victor Mendez, Val Pascucci and Chris Aguila), but they were all passed over for the 22-year-old Evans. Mendez is the youngest of the group at 27, so what are any of them doing in the Mets' farm system if a C prospect from the B-Mets merits a recall before them?
Anyway, Evans has been splitting time between first base and left field this season - scouts say that he can't play either position very well. But he is a right-handed outfielder below the age of 27 that can hit a little bit, which is what passes for a prospect in the minor league system these days. God save us all.
The only question I'm still waiting for an answer on is whether or not Evans can be added directly to the 40-man roster or if someone is going to need to be released first. The 40-man roster on the Mets' website only lists 38 players; I'll update this space once I can find out the particulars. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Claudio Vargas
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Matt Wise
Joe Smith
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Raul Casanova
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Nick Evans
Endy Chavez
Moises Alou - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Marlon Anderson - DL
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Roster Move: Alou Placed on 15-Day DL
Well, this is just totally unexpected.
Moises Alou gets injured. It's a fact of life. I don't understand why the Mets brought Raul Casanova back, though. A professional baseball team started Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson as their corner outfielders tonight. Willie Randolph's inability to grasp the basics of lineup construction also led him to start four left-handed batters in a row - Carlos Delgado, Anderson, Brian Schneider and Chavez were the #5 to #8 batters. Perhaps a right-handed corner outfielder would've been a better choice to recall than Casanova?
Ohhhhhhh, the Mets only have six outfielders on their 40-man roster!! With Pagan and now Alou on the DL, that means there are only four outfielders available, all of whom are on the active roster right now. You mean it's not a good idea to have 20 pitchers on the 40-man roster, especially when Moises Alou can get injured in a stiff breeze and Marlon Anderson isn't actually an outfielder? Gold star for Omar Minaya!!
Anyway, let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Claudio Vargas
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Matt Wise
Joe Smith
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Raul Casanova
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Moises Alou - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Moises Alou gets injured. It's a fact of life. I don't understand why the Mets brought Raul Casanova back, though. A professional baseball team started Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson as their corner outfielders tonight. Willie Randolph's inability to grasp the basics of lineup construction also led him to start four left-handed batters in a row - Carlos Delgado, Anderson, Brian Schneider and Chavez were the #5 to #8 batters. Perhaps a right-handed corner outfielder would've been a better choice to recall than Casanova?
Ohhhhhhh, the Mets only have six outfielders on their 40-man roster!! With Pagan and now Alou on the DL, that means there are only four outfielders available, all of whom are on the active roster right now. You mean it's not a good idea to have 20 pitchers on the 40-man roster, especially when Moises Alou can get injured in a stiff breeze and Marlon Anderson isn't actually an outfielder? Gold star for Omar Minaya!!
Anyway, let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Claudio Vargas
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Matt Wise
Joe Smith
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
Raul Casanova
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Moises Alou - DL
Angel Pagan - DL
Stretching Out The Starters (Flushing University)
Willie Randolph has been looking for more “length” from his starting pitchers all season. Perhaps Willie and the organizational braintrust should look to the St. Louis Cardinals’ farm system, where a former Met reliever is training their minor league starters to go deeper into games. Read more here ...
An added note: this is the first interview I've done for a column since November of 2001 and I'm pretty sure it's the first former professional baseball layer I've ever interviewed. Dyar called me at 10 am last Thursday and I had to shut the door to my new office and hope the Dean of Students wouldn't barge in asking me work questions during the interview. The conversation went well enough; I think it took Dyar a few minutes to realize I wasn't a 17-year-old kid living in my mom's basement though. Once he did, he opened up more and gave me some good material. A fully transcribed interview would've been very interesting reading, but unfortunately the call caught me off-guard and I couldn't set up the digital recorder in time.
Special thanks to Melody Yount from the St. Louis Cardinals, who arranged the interview for me.
An added note: this is the first interview I've done for a column since November of 2001 and I'm pretty sure it's the first former professional baseball layer I've ever interviewed. Dyar called me at 10 am last Thursday and I had to shut the door to my new office and hope the Dean of Students wouldn't barge in asking me work questions during the interview. The conversation went well enough; I think it took Dyar a few minutes to realize I wasn't a 17-year-old kid living in my mom's basement though. Once he did, he opened up more and gave me some good material. A fully transcribed interview would've been very interesting reading, but unfortunately the call caught me off-guard and I couldn't set up the digital recorder in time.
Special thanks to Melody Yount from the St. Louis Cardinals, who arranged the interview for me.
Torch!? I'll Light a Torch to This Place!!
(That's a Show Me ... circa 1996)
The Mets are 22-22 after another dismal effort against the Braves last night. It's bad baseball, it's boring baseball and the fan base is in an uproar. I'm mostly apathetic at this point - I'm resigned to an 85-win season and no playoff berth. The good news is that it will mean the end of Willie Randolph and yet another roster overhaul. If Omar Minaya is allowed to stay, he'll throw good money after bad and probably get himself canned after the 2009 season. At that point, the Wilpons will be stuck with yet another milquetoast manager and the cycle will begin anew.
Anyway, the calls for blowing the whole thing up and starting over on May 22 are unrealistic. They are fun to project, though, so let's take a look at the 25-man roster, as well as people on the DL, and see what I would do if I was handed the reins.
STARTERS
Johan Santana: signed to a long-term deal, isn't going anywhere. Nor should he.
John Maine: under team control for four more years. Keep him.
Oliver Perez: free agent after this season. I still believe in him, but he's prime trade bait if you're blowing it up.
Pedro Martinez: free agent after this season. Who knows when he's ever coming back, but you let him play out the string and hope to get something out of him, then let him leave in the off-season.
El Duque: I don't think he's ever coming back. Put him in the same boat as Pedro.
Mike Pelfrey: signed a major contract through 2009, but I'm not sure if he becomes a free agent after that or if he has some arbitration years. Let him spend the rest of the season trying to learn a third pitch and if he doesn't, begin grooming him in the off-season for a career as a reliever.
Trade Bait: Perez
Playing Out the String: Pedro and Duque
RELIEVERS
Billy Wagner: signed through '09 with a club friendly option. Trade him - he'll bring back a lot and the Mets can audition closers for the future.
Duaner Sanchez: a free agent after 2009. Hasn't been good since returning to the big club and has no trade value. Keep him and cross your fingers, but be ready to release him early next season.
Aaron Heilman: forget about the struggles this year. Under Mets control for the foreseeable future and is more likely to right the ship then to pitch like this forever.
Pedro Feliciano: same deal as Heilman.
Scott Schoenweis: Minaya foolishly signed him to a long-term deal and will be here through next season. Surprisingly effective early on, so trade him as quickly as possible before reality set back in.
Matt Wise: give him a season to right the ship and if he doesn't, say goodbye at the end of the season.
Joe Smith: a young guy who isn't close to his arbitration years yet. Keep him and see what happens.
Trade Bait: Wagner, Schoenweis
Playing Out the String: Wise
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider: signed through '09, no point in trying to upgrade.
Ramon Castro: same as Schneider. You simply stand pat at the catcher position and hope Francisco Pena will somehow be knocking on the door at the end of next year.
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado: people, get your head out of the sand about Delgado. Nobody wants him and we have nobody better in the farm system. Forget about Mike Carp or Nick Evans; neither is ready for New Orleans yet, let alone New York. Delgado is the first baseman for the rest of the season.
Luis Castillo: nobody gets traded two months into a four-year deal. He's the second sacker for at least the next two seasons; maybe you can release him and eat the money after 2009 season.
Jose Reyes: still a superstar in waiting. Needs a new manager and some new clubhouse influences in the worst way.
David Wright: the second coming of the Franchise.
Damion Easley: only here until the season ends.
Fernando Tatis: only here until Angel Pagan returns.
Trade Bait: None
Playing Out the String: Easley, Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou: will surely retire at the end of the season. No one will trade for a guy who is one stubbed toe away from another DL stint.
Carlos Beltran: signed through 2011. Would you want a 31-year-old center fielder signed to a four-year deal worth $74 million and another $22 million in deferred money? I didn't think so. Get used to Beltran, folks; he's not going anywhere.
Ryan Church: when he's not getting his head wrecked, Church has performed well. The Mets control him for another two years at favorable costs, so no reason to move him.
Marlon Anderson: smart general managers don't sign backup left-handed outfielders with no power to two-year deals. We're stuck with him.
Endy Chavez: smart general managers don't sign backup left-handed outfielders with no power to two-year deals. At least Endy plays defense.
Angel Pagan: smart general managers sign backup outfielders with no power to one-year deals. One out of three gets you to the Hall of Fame as a player. It gets you to the unemployment line as a general manager.
Trade Bait: None
Playing Out the String: Alou
I can appreciate the frustration that this team is causing the fan base, but there are only three players on the entire roster who are realistic trade targets. Minaya will never trade Wagner, because he believes too much in the value of closers. Schoenweis has no value, even though he looks sharp right now; at best he'll bring back another middle reliever.
That leaves Oliver Perez. If the Mets are 10 games out on July 22, Minaya may decide to pull the trigger. But the Mets are 3.5 out on May 22. Nothing is going to happen.
So suck it up, Mets fans. Don't expect a major roster overhaul in the next 60 days, and don't expect a wide scale firesale under any circumstances. Omar Minaya made this bed - now you have to lie in it.
The Mets are 22-22 after another dismal effort against the Braves last night. It's bad baseball, it's boring baseball and the fan base is in an uproar. I'm mostly apathetic at this point - I'm resigned to an 85-win season and no playoff berth. The good news is that it will mean the end of Willie Randolph and yet another roster overhaul. If Omar Minaya is allowed to stay, he'll throw good money after bad and probably get himself canned after the 2009 season. At that point, the Wilpons will be stuck with yet another milquetoast manager and the cycle will begin anew.
Anyway, the calls for blowing the whole thing up and starting over on May 22 are unrealistic. They are fun to project, though, so let's take a look at the 25-man roster, as well as people on the DL, and see what I would do if I was handed the reins.
STARTERS
Johan Santana: signed to a long-term deal, isn't going anywhere. Nor should he.
John Maine: under team control for four more years. Keep him.
Oliver Perez: free agent after this season. I still believe in him, but he's prime trade bait if you're blowing it up.
Pedro Martinez: free agent after this season. Who knows when he's ever coming back, but you let him play out the string and hope to get something out of him, then let him leave in the off-season.
El Duque: I don't think he's ever coming back. Put him in the same boat as Pedro.
Mike Pelfrey: signed a major contract through 2009, but I'm not sure if he becomes a free agent after that or if he has some arbitration years. Let him spend the rest of the season trying to learn a third pitch and if he doesn't, begin grooming him in the off-season for a career as a reliever.
Trade Bait: Perez
Playing Out the String: Pedro and Duque
RELIEVERS
Billy Wagner: signed through '09 with a club friendly option. Trade him - he'll bring back a lot and the Mets can audition closers for the future.
Duaner Sanchez: a free agent after 2009. Hasn't been good since returning to the big club and has no trade value. Keep him and cross your fingers, but be ready to release him early next season.
Aaron Heilman: forget about the struggles this year. Under Mets control for the foreseeable future and is more likely to right the ship then to pitch like this forever.
Pedro Feliciano: same deal as Heilman.
Scott Schoenweis: Minaya foolishly signed him to a long-term deal and will be here through next season. Surprisingly effective early on, so trade him as quickly as possible before reality set back in.
Matt Wise: give him a season to right the ship and if he doesn't, say goodbye at the end of the season.
Joe Smith: a young guy who isn't close to his arbitration years yet. Keep him and see what happens.
Trade Bait: Wagner, Schoenweis
Playing Out the String: Wise
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider: signed through '09, no point in trying to upgrade.
Ramon Castro: same as Schneider. You simply stand pat at the catcher position and hope Francisco Pena will somehow be knocking on the door at the end of next year.
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado: people, get your head out of the sand about Delgado. Nobody wants him and we have nobody better in the farm system. Forget about Mike Carp or Nick Evans; neither is ready for New Orleans yet, let alone New York. Delgado is the first baseman for the rest of the season.
Luis Castillo: nobody gets traded two months into a four-year deal. He's the second sacker for at least the next two seasons; maybe you can release him and eat the money after 2009 season.
Jose Reyes: still a superstar in waiting. Needs a new manager and some new clubhouse influences in the worst way.
David Wright: the second coming of the Franchise.
Damion Easley: only here until the season ends.
Fernando Tatis: only here until Angel Pagan returns.
Trade Bait: None
Playing Out the String: Easley, Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou: will surely retire at the end of the season. No one will trade for a guy who is one stubbed toe away from another DL stint.
Carlos Beltran: signed through 2011. Would you want a 31-year-old center fielder signed to a four-year deal worth $74 million and another $22 million in deferred money? I didn't think so. Get used to Beltran, folks; he's not going anywhere.
Ryan Church: when he's not getting his head wrecked, Church has performed well. The Mets control him for another two years at favorable costs, so no reason to move him.
Marlon Anderson: smart general managers don't sign backup left-handed outfielders with no power to two-year deals. We're stuck with him.
Endy Chavez: smart general managers don't sign backup left-handed outfielders with no power to two-year deals. At least Endy plays defense.
Angel Pagan: smart general managers sign backup outfielders with no power to one-year deals. One out of three gets you to the Hall of Fame as a player. It gets you to the unemployment line as a general manager.
Trade Bait: None
Playing Out the String: Alou
I can appreciate the frustration that this team is causing the fan base, but there are only three players on the entire roster who are realistic trade targets. Minaya will never trade Wagner, because he believes too much in the value of closers. Schoenweis has no value, even though he looks sharp right now; at best he'll bring back another middle reliever.
That leaves Oliver Perez. If the Mets are 10 games out on July 22, Minaya may decide to pull the trigger. But the Mets are 3.5 out on May 22. Nothing is going to happen.
So suck it up, Mets fans. Don't expect a major roster overhaul in the next 60 days, and don't expect a wide scale firesale under any circumstances. Omar Minaya made this bed - now you have to lie in it.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Uncle Jack
... and no, I'm not talking about the steakhouse.
I don't know if I'm ever going to have a kid. I'm very selfish and irresponsible, which are generally bad combinations for fatherhood. Christine doesn't want kids either; her golden retriever is going to be her first-born son. Maybe one day we'll get our act together and find a way to make another human being, but right now it's far more likely that we'll be tending to dogs for the rest of our lives.
But I just found out tonight that my sister is going to have a baby, and what's more she and her husband are doing so willingly. Right now I'm fluctuating between waves of big-brother freak-outs and bursts of unbridled enthusiasm. I actually like children a lot, because you can teach them things and make fun of them and play games with them and other fun stuff. I also like giving kids back to their parents when they start to cry or need their diaper changed or just starting acting like a pain in the ass, which I'll be able to do when their kid starts acting up. I'm definitely looking forward to that!
So I'm looking forward to teaching my future nephew or niece about the important things in life, and threatening to sell him or her to the gypsies when he or she start acting ridiculous. I told my sister tonight that I'll take the kid to Mets games when he or she is old enough (although "old enough" means sitting through a three-hour game without a bathroom break). I'm sitting here now and thinking to myself, "should I really subject this child to a lifetime of suffering as a Mets fan?"
It's a moral conundrum. I love the Mets, and I know that I'll form an even stronger bond with this kid by inducting him or her into the society of Mets fans. But is it fair to a child to introduce him or her to the Mets when I know he or she will be happier rooting for some other team?
Aww, who am I kidding? This kid will be sleeping in a David Wright onesie before it's even one month old!!
I don't know if I'm ever going to have a kid. I'm very selfish and irresponsible, which are generally bad combinations for fatherhood. Christine doesn't want kids either; her golden retriever is going to be her first-born son. Maybe one day we'll get our act together and find a way to make another human being, but right now it's far more likely that we'll be tending to dogs for the rest of our lives.
But I just found out tonight that my sister is going to have a baby, and what's more she and her husband are doing so willingly. Right now I'm fluctuating between waves of big-brother freak-outs and bursts of unbridled enthusiasm. I actually like children a lot, because you can teach them things and make fun of them and play games with them and other fun stuff. I also like giving kids back to their parents when they start to cry or need their diaper changed or just starting acting like a pain in the ass, which I'll be able to do when their kid starts acting up. I'm definitely looking forward to that!
So I'm looking forward to teaching my future nephew or niece about the important things in life, and threatening to sell him or her to the gypsies when he or she start acting ridiculous. I told my sister tonight that I'll take the kid to Mets games when he or she is old enough (although "old enough" means sitting through a three-hour game without a bathroom break). I'm sitting here now and thinking to myself, "should I really subject this child to a lifetime of suffering as a Mets fan?"
It's a moral conundrum. I love the Mets, and I know that I'll form an even stronger bond with this kid by inducting him or her into the society of Mets fans. But is it fair to a child to introduce him or her to the Mets when I know he or she will be happier rooting for some other team?
Aww, who am I kidding? This kid will be sleeping in a David Wright onesie before it's even one month old!!
Link Review: My Summer Family
I should've done this about a month ago, but with school over and three glorious months without student conduct issues ahead, I can start catching up on some of the more important things in my life. After my first Flushing University column, I received a nice comment from "The Coop" about enjoying my take on the Oliver Perez situation. Turns out that Coop is a far more accomplished blogger than I am and has contributed to FU in the past.
My Summer Family is her primary canvas for painting the picture on the Mets. It looks like Coop is contributing to at least two other blogs as well - now that's prolific! - but My Summer Family seems to be a solo effort. Yesterday's Shea Goodbye piece was especially good; a quick recap of highlights from her 28 years following the Mets. T-Bone, you're going to fall in love when you read her five ideas for fixing the Mets - another person ready to turn Heilman into a reliever!
My Summer Family is her primary canvas for painting the picture on the Mets. It looks like Coop is contributing to at least two other blogs as well - now that's prolific! - but My Summer Family seems to be a solo effort. Yesterday's Shea Goodbye piece was especially good; a quick recap of highlights from her 28 years following the Mets. T-Bone, you're going to fall in love when you read her five ideas for fixing the Mets - another person ready to turn Heilman into a reliever!
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Monday, May 19, 2008
Missing the Boat
The sharks are in the water and everyone is looking for their pound of flesh.
As the Mets continue to flounder in 2008 (sorry, but two straight wins against the last-place team in the American League East doesn't mean they're suddenly ready to begin dominating the rest of the league), the mainstream media has decided that Willie Randolph's head is on the chopping block. The predictable avalanche of columns and reports have followed, nearly all of them focusing on the perception of Willie's lack of control over the Mets' clubhouse and the placid demeanor he and his team continue to show.
Willie fired back last night, taking the media to task for their characterization of him and suggesting that there may even be a racial component to the criticism he's facing. Racism in baseball - and in American society - still exists, of course. But that's not the problem here. Willie doesn't yell and scream and kick dirt and throw stuff on the field when his team isn't showing enough "spark," whatever the hell that means. But that's not the problem either.
The problem is plain and simple - Willie Randolph is a poor tactical manager, who is not rising above the poorly constructed roster being handed to him by his general manager.
There's a reason why Willie Randolph was passed over by more than 10 teams with managerial openings in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It had a little bit to do with the color of his skin (because it would be naive to say that race played no factor at all), but it had a lot to do with the fact that he had no previous managerial experience. Randolph simply refused to manage in the minor leagues to prove himself and instead remained a coach on Joe Torre's staff for several years that he could've been honing the craft at lower levels of organized baseball.
Torre wasn't some type of managerial savant when he ran the ship for the Mets, the Braves or the Cardinals. He only became St. Joe of the Diamonds when he took over a team with the highest payroll in baseball and the greatest, most automatic reliever in baseball history. It didn't hurt that he managed in the American League, where you write nine names on the lineup card and see what happens, or that the enormous payroll more often than not allowed him to write nine names better than anyone else's lineup.
The notion that an apprenticeship under Joe Torre was enough to build one's self into a great manager - a notion that Randolph seemingly buys into - is simply ridiculous. There are very few people in baseball good enough to run a baseball team without spending a few seasons in the minor leagues getting his feet wet. To say that Willie Randolph isn't one of them is not an insult to Willie Randolph; it is simply recognition that Randolph is like nearly every other baseball man on the planet who needed some practice before he became perfect.
Now, we are nearly 3 1/2 years into the Willie Randolph Era and two things are becoming very clear. The first is that Randolph is a conservative, by the book manager whose unimaginative nature does not distinguish him from the rest of the pack. The second is that Randolph still struggles to grasp elementary game tactics, as well as tactics regarding lineup construction and bullpen usage. The result is a skipper who is an active detriment to his team's overall success.
In Willie's World, starters rarely go more than 100 pitches, regardless of circumstance, and multiple relievers pitch every day, rarely more than an inning at a time. The result is an overtaxed bullpen that has observers rightly questioning if they will be able to sustain such an enormous workload for an entire season. In Willie's World, the second place hitter in the lineup is a slap hitter who bunts and moves the runners over, not someone who can actually hit. The result is the continued misuse of Luis Castillo, whose diminished power numbers make him unusable anywhere other than the #8 spot in the lineup.
Willie still doesn't know when to double-switch and still overuses relievers regardless of performance. Who leads the Mets in relief innings pitched so far in 2008? Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa - the two most ineffective relievers in the bullpen this season. Marlon Anderson has been used as a pinch hitter in 29 of the Mets' 41 games this season - he is 5 for 25 with just two extra-base hits. Willie complains about "length" from his starting pitchers, but no one has thrown more than 117 pitches in a game this season, despite a rotation with four starters under the age of 30.
The blame can't all be laid at Willie's feet. He didn't decide to entrust the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation to walking injury risks Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez. He didn't give a lefty specialist a three-year guaranteed contract. He didn't trade for Carlos Delgado's decline years, which just happened to also be his most expensive years. He didn't give a four-year contract to a Punch and Judy hitter with bad knees like Castillo. He didn't decide to build a bench mostly featuring aging second basemen, one of whom has morphed into the re-incarnation of Manny Mota.
This is a $137 million team with no depth and that's Omar Minaya's fault, no matter how you slice it. The farm system - no great shakes to begin with after several years of slot drafting and bad decisions - was laid bare to get Santana, so help most assuredly is not on the way.
So forget about Randolph's demeanor on the bench. Forget about the locker room of quiet players who aren't screaming or fighting or doing whatever the WFAN yahoos think they need to do to "show some guts." That's not the problem here. Willie Randolph is costing the Mets wins not for his behavior in the clubhouse, but for his decisions in the dugout. Everything else just complicates what should be an elementary issue.
As the Mets continue to flounder in 2008 (sorry, but two straight wins against the last-place team in the American League East doesn't mean they're suddenly ready to begin dominating the rest of the league), the mainstream media has decided that Willie Randolph's head is on the chopping block. The predictable avalanche of columns and reports have followed, nearly all of them focusing on the perception of Willie's lack of control over the Mets' clubhouse and the placid demeanor he and his team continue to show.
Willie fired back last night, taking the media to task for their characterization of him and suggesting that there may even be a racial component to the criticism he's facing. Racism in baseball - and in American society - still exists, of course. But that's not the problem here. Willie doesn't yell and scream and kick dirt and throw stuff on the field when his team isn't showing enough "spark," whatever the hell that means. But that's not the problem either.
The problem is plain and simple - Willie Randolph is a poor tactical manager, who is not rising above the poorly constructed roster being handed to him by his general manager.
There's a reason why Willie Randolph was passed over by more than 10 teams with managerial openings in the late 1990s and early 2000s. It had a little bit to do with the color of his skin (because it would be naive to say that race played no factor at all), but it had a lot to do with the fact that he had no previous managerial experience. Randolph simply refused to manage in the minor leagues to prove himself and instead remained a coach on Joe Torre's staff for several years that he could've been honing the craft at lower levels of organized baseball.
Torre wasn't some type of managerial savant when he ran the ship for the Mets, the Braves or the Cardinals. He only became St. Joe of the Diamonds when he took over a team with the highest payroll in baseball and the greatest, most automatic reliever in baseball history. It didn't hurt that he managed in the American League, where you write nine names on the lineup card and see what happens, or that the enormous payroll more often than not allowed him to write nine names better than anyone else's lineup.
The notion that an apprenticeship under Joe Torre was enough to build one's self into a great manager - a notion that Randolph seemingly buys into - is simply ridiculous. There are very few people in baseball good enough to run a baseball team without spending a few seasons in the minor leagues getting his feet wet. To say that Willie Randolph isn't one of them is not an insult to Willie Randolph; it is simply recognition that Randolph is like nearly every other baseball man on the planet who needed some practice before he became perfect.
Now, we are nearly 3 1/2 years into the Willie Randolph Era and two things are becoming very clear. The first is that Randolph is a conservative, by the book manager whose unimaginative nature does not distinguish him from the rest of the pack. The second is that Randolph still struggles to grasp elementary game tactics, as well as tactics regarding lineup construction and bullpen usage. The result is a skipper who is an active detriment to his team's overall success.
In Willie's World, starters rarely go more than 100 pitches, regardless of circumstance, and multiple relievers pitch every day, rarely more than an inning at a time. The result is an overtaxed bullpen that has observers rightly questioning if they will be able to sustain such an enormous workload for an entire season. In Willie's World, the second place hitter in the lineup is a slap hitter who bunts and moves the runners over, not someone who can actually hit. The result is the continued misuse of Luis Castillo, whose diminished power numbers make him unusable anywhere other than the #8 spot in the lineup.
Willie still doesn't know when to double-switch and still overuses relievers regardless of performance. Who leads the Mets in relief innings pitched so far in 2008? Aaron Heilman and Jorge Sosa - the two most ineffective relievers in the bullpen this season. Marlon Anderson has been used as a pinch hitter in 29 of the Mets' 41 games this season - he is 5 for 25 with just two extra-base hits. Willie complains about "length" from his starting pitchers, but no one has thrown more than 117 pitches in a game this season, despite a rotation with four starters under the age of 30.
The blame can't all be laid at Willie's feet. He didn't decide to entrust the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation to walking injury risks Pedro Martinez and El Duque Hernandez. He didn't give a lefty specialist a three-year guaranteed contract. He didn't trade for Carlos Delgado's decline years, which just happened to also be his most expensive years. He didn't give a four-year contract to a Punch and Judy hitter with bad knees like Castillo. He didn't decide to build a bench mostly featuring aging second basemen, one of whom has morphed into the re-incarnation of Manny Mota.
This is a $137 million team with no depth and that's Omar Minaya's fault, no matter how you slice it. The farm system - no great shakes to begin with after several years of slot drafting and bad decisions - was laid bare to get Santana, so help most assuredly is not on the way.
So forget about Randolph's demeanor on the bench. Forget about the locker room of quiet players who aren't screaming or fighting or doing whatever the WFAN yahoos think they need to do to "show some guts." That's not the problem here. Willie Randolph is costing the Mets wins not for his behavior in the clubhouse, but for his decisions in the dugout. Everything else just complicates what should be an elementary issue.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Where's Wally?
It should come as no surprise to even my most casual reader that I am not a Willie Randolph supporter. Hindsight may be 20-20, but I was vocal in my opposition to hiring Randolph days after the 2004 season ended.
Toward the end of that post, I endorsed two candidates to replace the unlamented Art Howe - Bobby Valentine and Wally Backman. Valentine was a pipe dream, of course; he had been fired just two seasons before after losing control of the clubhouse. The 2003 and 2004 seasons, in my mind, were further proof that the problem was with the players and not with Valentine. Even his most ardent detractors would struggle to argue that he's not an intelligent baseball mind - Valentine's problem was and always will be based on personality issues.
My second choice at the time was Wally Backman, which back then was hardly far-fetched. Backman was perhaps the hottest managerial candidate of the 2004 off-season. He had just been named the Sporting News Manager of the Year with Lancaster in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization and had won league championships at two previous stops. If anyone was going to give the Mets the kick in the ass they so sorely needed after three dreary campaigns, it was going to be Wally's boot administering the attitude adjustment.
Things went differently. The Diamondbacks promoted Backman from Lancaster to run the big club and the Mets hired Randolph days later. By the time they did, Wally had bigger issues than filling out the lineup card.
Three seasons later, Randolph has proven to show little to no acumen for managing a major league ballclub and there are serious questions about his leadership ability - the one thing he supposedly brought to the table above all else. Backman is managing as well, this time for the Joliet Jackhammers in the Northern League.
Backman won the South Coast League championship with the South Georgia Peanuts in 2007, in a wild season that saw his players forfeit a game after an on-field brawl and saw Backman quit his job after constant feuding with league officials about the professionalsim and quality of league umpires, only to return three days later to finish out the season.
The Peanuts' championship season has been immortalized by the TV show "Playing for Peanuts," a 10-episode behind the scenes look at South Georgia's title run currently airing on sports stations across the country. One of those stations just happens to be SNY, home of the New York Mets.
You may not know this, because SNY isn't exactly going out of its way to promote it. There doesn't appear to be any mention of the show on SNY's website and I haven't seen a commercial for the program yet. Mike Silva from Dugout Central noted SNY's apparent disinterest in promoting the show, speculating that it might have something to do with Randolph's job status.
"The real question to me is why haven’t we heard more about the attributes of Wally Backman? Here in New York the Mets television affiliate (SNY) ran the debut of the show hours after a game with the Cincinnati Reds. There was no mention of this show before, during or after the game ... This kind of treatment of a player that meant so much to the Mets franchise during his tenure can only mean one of the following: SNY is completely clueless on how to promote a great product, or they are under gag order to not embrace a controversial figure ... Those that are conspiracy theorists may note that current Mets manager Willie Randolph has been taken a beating by the media and fans since the start of the season. Displaying Backman’s prowess as a manager might put Willie in an even more negative light. The last thing Mets management needs now is to give their fan base more fodder."
Toward the end of that post, I endorsed two candidates to replace the unlamented Art Howe - Bobby Valentine and Wally Backman. Valentine was a pipe dream, of course; he had been fired just two seasons before after losing control of the clubhouse. The 2003 and 2004 seasons, in my mind, were further proof that the problem was with the players and not with Valentine. Even his most ardent detractors would struggle to argue that he's not an intelligent baseball mind - Valentine's problem was and always will be based on personality issues.
My second choice at the time was Wally Backman, which back then was hardly far-fetched. Backman was perhaps the hottest managerial candidate of the 2004 off-season. He had just been named the Sporting News Manager of the Year with Lancaster in the Arizona Diamondbacks organization and had won league championships at two previous stops. If anyone was going to give the Mets the kick in the ass they so sorely needed after three dreary campaigns, it was going to be Wally's boot administering the attitude adjustment.
Things went differently. The Diamondbacks promoted Backman from Lancaster to run the big club and the Mets hired Randolph days later. By the time they did, Wally had bigger issues than filling out the lineup card.
Three seasons later, Randolph has proven to show little to no acumen for managing a major league ballclub and there are serious questions about his leadership ability - the one thing he supposedly brought to the table above all else. Backman is managing as well, this time for the Joliet Jackhammers in the Northern League.
Backman won the South Coast League championship with the South Georgia Peanuts in 2007, in a wild season that saw his players forfeit a game after an on-field brawl and saw Backman quit his job after constant feuding with league officials about the professionalsim and quality of league umpires, only to return three days later to finish out the season.
The Peanuts' championship season has been immortalized by the TV show "Playing for Peanuts," a 10-episode behind the scenes look at South Georgia's title run currently airing on sports stations across the country. One of those stations just happens to be SNY, home of the New York Mets.
You may not know this, because SNY isn't exactly going out of its way to promote it. There doesn't appear to be any mention of the show on SNY's website and I haven't seen a commercial for the program yet. Mike Silva from Dugout Central noted SNY's apparent disinterest in promoting the show, speculating that it might have something to do with Randolph's job status.
"The real question to me is why haven’t we heard more about the attributes of Wally Backman? Here in New York the Mets television affiliate (SNY) ran the debut of the show hours after a game with the Cincinnati Reds. There was no mention of this show before, during or after the game ... This kind of treatment of a player that meant so much to the Mets franchise during his tenure can only mean one of the following: SNY is completely clueless on how to promote a great product, or they are under gag order to not embrace a controversial figure ... Those that are conspiracy theorists may note that current Mets manager Willie Randolph has been taken a beating by the media and fans since the start of the season. Displaying Backman’s prowess as a manager might put Willie in an even more negative light. The last thing Mets management needs now is to give their fan base more fodder."
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Take A Chance On Me (Flushing University)
Forget about the false sense of security that comes with eight-man bullpens or guaranteeing too many pitcher contracts. It’s exceptionally important to have flexibility when building a pitching staff, because you never know when you will catch lightning in a bottle. The Mets have hopefully learned that lesson with the release of Jorge Sosa. Read more here ...
Numbers Lie: Pedro Feliciano
I was all set to write about Pedro Feliciano this morning, specifically about how ineffective he's actually been despite a superfically pretty earned run average. Feliciano's 2.13 ERA is belied by an incredibly high 1.816 WHIP, generally a far more telling statistic for relief pitchers.
ERA for relief pitchers is unreliable, because relievers frequently give up someone else's runs. If a reliever comes into the game with first and second and nobody out and gives up a two-run double before getting out of the inning, he gets credit for pitching a scoreless inning. That's not true, of course, because two runs scored in the inning. However, they are charged to the pitcher who put the runners on base in the first place, subtly rewarding the pitcher who allowed the runs to score but didn't permit anyone else to cross the plate.
Anyway, Feliciano has been allowing nearly two baserunners per appearance, a rate roughly comparable to Jorge Sosa in 2008. Sosa found himself on the business end of the axe on Tuesday and I was going to write that if Feliciano did not get his act together, he may need to be the next to depart the Mets' bullpen.
Then I took a closer look at the numbers and nearly had a change of heart. Apparently Feliciano has stranded 12 of 13 inherited runners in 2008, which is an excellent ratio and would seemingly speak to his ability to get the Mets out of tough situations. I was all set to cleverly note this statistical anomaly and gently lecture my readers about looking deeper into the numbers before making judgments on players.
But here's the thing; Feliciano's "ability" to strand inherited baserunners makes almost no sense considering how many hits he's allowed (17 in 12 2/3 innings). I could think of only one explanation - he must be bearing down when men are on base and getting needed outs, while losing focus when the bases are empty and allowing too many baserunners.
So I checked it out. Feliciano has inherited baserunners in only seven of his twenty appearances this season. In three of those appearances, he didn't even record an out - all within a five-day span in mid-April. The first time this happened was on April 17, when Felicano came on with two outs in the 11th inning to face Nick Johnson with a man on first. Feliciano walked Johnson and gave way to Joe Smith, who retired Lastings Milledge to end the threat. Even though it was Smith who did the heavy lifting by getting the final out, Feliciano got credit for stranding a runner because the man who was on base when he came on did not score while he was pitching.
On April 19, Feliciano replaced Smith in the eighth inning and give up a single and a walk before giving way to Aaron Heilman. Since Feliciano didn't allow Smith's run to score (Heilman did so with the next better), again he gets credit for stranding the runner.
Something similar happened three days later; Feliciano replaced Smith again, this time with two runners on base. He uncorked a wild pitch that advanced the runner on first but did not score a run, then intentionally walked his batter after running up a 2-0 count with first base open. This time Sosa was called upon to save the Mets' bacon and actually did so by retiring the next two hitters. Feliciano throws four pitches - two of them intentional balls and one a wild pitch - and gets credit for stranding two baserunners!
In the other appearances where Feliciano was called upon with men on base, he was reasonably effective. However, the numbers lie on these occasions as well. The first appearance on April 29 saw Feliciano enter the game with the bases loaded and two outs in the sixth inning. He induced a pop-up from Adam Laroche to get out of the jam and straned three runners in doing so. Then on May 2, Feliciano came in with a five-run lead in the eighth inning and was asked to retire just one batter, which he did. Two men were on at the time, so Feliciano got credit for them.
So to recap: in those two games, Pedro Feliciano threw five pitches, retired two batters and got credit for stranding five inherited runners!! So much for bearing down when men are on base while losing focus when the bases are empty. Someone better check Feliciano's family tree for Irish ancestry!
Pedro Feliciano has not been good this season. He has been extremely lucky, however. If his luck runs out and he doesn't start pitching better, Feliciano is going to be the next Met reliever on the unemployment line.
ERA for relief pitchers is unreliable, because relievers frequently give up someone else's runs. If a reliever comes into the game with first and second and nobody out and gives up a two-run double before getting out of the inning, he gets credit for pitching a scoreless inning. That's not true, of course, because two runs scored in the inning. However, they are charged to the pitcher who put the runners on base in the first place, subtly rewarding the pitcher who allowed the runs to score but didn't permit anyone else to cross the plate.
Anyway, Feliciano has been allowing nearly two baserunners per appearance, a rate roughly comparable to Jorge Sosa in 2008. Sosa found himself on the business end of the axe on Tuesday and I was going to write that if Feliciano did not get his act together, he may need to be the next to depart the Mets' bullpen.
Then I took a closer look at the numbers and nearly had a change of heart. Apparently Feliciano has stranded 12 of 13 inherited runners in 2008, which is an excellent ratio and would seemingly speak to his ability to get the Mets out of tough situations. I was all set to cleverly note this statistical anomaly and gently lecture my readers about looking deeper into the numbers before making judgments on players.
But here's the thing; Feliciano's "ability" to strand inherited baserunners makes almost no sense considering how many hits he's allowed (17 in 12 2/3 innings). I could think of only one explanation - he must be bearing down when men are on base and getting needed outs, while losing focus when the bases are empty and allowing too many baserunners.
So I checked it out. Feliciano has inherited baserunners in only seven of his twenty appearances this season. In three of those appearances, he didn't even record an out - all within a five-day span in mid-April. The first time this happened was on April 17, when Felicano came on with two outs in the 11th inning to face Nick Johnson with a man on first. Feliciano walked Johnson and gave way to Joe Smith, who retired Lastings Milledge to end the threat. Even though it was Smith who did the heavy lifting by getting the final out, Feliciano got credit for stranding a runner because the man who was on base when he came on did not score while he was pitching.
On April 19, Feliciano replaced Smith in the eighth inning and give up a single and a walk before giving way to Aaron Heilman. Since Feliciano didn't allow Smith's run to score (Heilman did so with the next better), again he gets credit for stranding the runner.
Something similar happened three days later; Feliciano replaced Smith again, this time with two runners on base. He uncorked a wild pitch that advanced the runner on first but did not score a run, then intentionally walked his batter after running up a 2-0 count with first base open. This time Sosa was called upon to save the Mets' bacon and actually did so by retiring the next two hitters. Feliciano throws four pitches - two of them intentional balls and one a wild pitch - and gets credit for stranding two baserunners!
In the other appearances where Feliciano was called upon with men on base, he was reasonably effective. However, the numbers lie on these occasions as well. The first appearance on April 29 saw Feliciano enter the game with the bases loaded and two outs in the sixth inning. He induced a pop-up from Adam Laroche to get out of the jam and straned three runners in doing so. Then on May 2, Feliciano came in with a five-run lead in the eighth inning and was asked to retire just one batter, which he did. Two men were on at the time, so Feliciano got credit for them.
So to recap: in those two games, Pedro Feliciano threw five pitches, retired two batters and got credit for stranding five inherited runners!! So much for bearing down when men are on base while losing focus when the bases are empty. Someone better check Feliciano's family tree for Irish ancestry!
Pedro Feliciano has not been good this season. He has been extremely lucky, however. If his luck runs out and he doesn't start pitching better, Feliciano is going to be the next Met reliever on the unemployment line.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Roster Moves: Sosa and Figueroa DFA'd; Wise Activated; Pagan DL'ed
Oh, shut up.
I obviously didn't see this coming. I suppose I should be glad; it's an indication that the Mets will admit their mistakes on occasion and even eat a few bucks if necessary. Jorge Sosa ends up costing $200,000 per awful appearance in 2008, but Matt Wise will replace him in the bullpen and isn't nearly as helpless against lefties. I know Tim thinks I'm a fanboy and he gave up a run tonight, but Wise is a talented reliever who I still believe will contribute in 2008.
Claudio Vargas replaces Nelson Figueroa in the rotation, at least for one night. Figueroa had two good starts before regressing to the mean; Vargas isn't likely to fare much better. They were both place-holders for Pedro anyway, so don't get too attached to either one of them.
I am so happy that Tatis got the call-up, even if it's only temporary. Two backup infielders! it must make Willie Randolph feel so decadent. Tatis is probably not a competent major leaguer, but maybe Omar Minaya will decide he likes having a backup corner infielder and will set his sites on acquiring a better one. Pagan has run out of fairy dust and crashed back to earth, but with Alou back in the lineup his playing time was reduced anyway.
Oh, and I jumped the gun a couple of days ago when Castro was activated. I didn't realize that Raul Casanova had to pass through waivers before heading to AAA. He did, and now he really will share catching duties at New Orleans. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Claudio Vargas
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Matt Wise
Joe Smith
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan - DL
I obviously didn't see this coming. I suppose I should be glad; it's an indication that the Mets will admit their mistakes on occasion and even eat a few bucks if necessary. Jorge Sosa ends up costing $200,000 per awful appearance in 2008, but Matt Wise will replace him in the bullpen and isn't nearly as helpless against lefties. I know Tim thinks I'm a fanboy and he gave up a run tonight, but Wise is a talented reliever who I still believe will contribute in 2008.
Claudio Vargas replaces Nelson Figueroa in the rotation, at least for one night. Figueroa had two good starts before regressing to the mean; Vargas isn't likely to fare much better. They were both place-holders for Pedro anyway, so don't get too attached to either one of them.
I am so happy that Tatis got the call-up, even if it's only temporary. Two backup infielders! it must make Willie Randolph feel so decadent. Tatis is probably not a competent major leaguer, but maybe Omar Minaya will decide he likes having a backup corner infielder and will set his sites on acquiring a better one. Pagan has run out of fairy dust and crashed back to earth, but with Alou back in the lineup his playing time was reduced anyway.
Oh, and I jumped the gun a couple of days ago when Castro was activated. I didn't realize that Raul Casanova had to pass through waivers before heading to AAA. He did, and now he really will share catching duties at New Orleans. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Claudio Vargas
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Matt Wise
Joe Smith
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
Fernando Tatis
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan - DL
Monday, May 12, 2008
Whither Matt Wise?
The right-handed reliever has been ready to go since last Friday night, after spending a month on the disabled list with what is being mockingly referred to as a "bruised forearm." He's apparently hovering around the organization, waiting for the Mets to make a decision about who he'll be replacing in the bullpen when he's finally activated.
Here's the problem - the Mets don't have an obvious candidate to replace him with.
Well, that's not entirely true. Jorge Sosa has been passed over on the starting pitcher depth chart by Nelson Figueroa and has been getting tattooed as a reliever this season. After last night's debacle against the Nationals, Sosa is sporting a 7.06 ERA and a 1.892 WHIP. Incredibly, Sosa has nevertheless made 20 appearances in the Mets' first 36 games, further proof that Willie Randolph still does not appreciate the wit and wisdom of Albert Einstein.
Yet as you read this today, Sosa will in all likelihood remain a member of the New York Mets. That's because Omar Minaya, in his haste to lock up every player on his roster from 2007, signed Sosa to a one-year, $2 million guaranteed contract in the off-season. It's the cardinal sin of roster construction - not leaving yourself enough flexibility to make changes when needed.
Sosa is a glorified righty specialist with enough arm strength to give you five mediocre innings as a starter or two mediocre innings as a reliever. He has pitched exceptionally poorly this year and has to be considered the worst reliever in the bullpen right now, but Minaya is simply not going to demote or release him to make room for Wise. Instead Joe Smith's head is squarely on the chopping block, for reasons that have nothing to do with performance. Smith is a righty specialist - just like Sosa - but makes $1.6 million less and can be sent to the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers.
Who do you think is going to be left standing when Wise is finally brought back into the fold?
(A quick diversion: the most inappropriate charge horn in the National League was just sounded over the Mets' PA system - with the team losing 10-4 with one out and a man on first in the bottom of the eighth inning. I've been hearing that goddamn horn since high school and I've never once heard it played for anything other than maximum embarrassment for a conscientious baseball fan.)
Get used to Jorge Sosa, because he's not going anywhere. Joe Smith is the only guy with minor-league options, so I will be stunned if he's not pitching in New Orleans next week. It's nothing more than a numbers game - and it's looking like another loss for the Mets.
Here's the problem - the Mets don't have an obvious candidate to replace him with.
Well, that's not entirely true. Jorge Sosa has been passed over on the starting pitcher depth chart by Nelson Figueroa and has been getting tattooed as a reliever this season. After last night's debacle against the Nationals, Sosa is sporting a 7.06 ERA and a 1.892 WHIP. Incredibly, Sosa has nevertheless made 20 appearances in the Mets' first 36 games, further proof that Willie Randolph still does not appreciate the wit and wisdom of Albert Einstein.
Yet as you read this today, Sosa will in all likelihood remain a member of the New York Mets. That's because Omar Minaya, in his haste to lock up every player on his roster from 2007, signed Sosa to a one-year, $2 million guaranteed contract in the off-season. It's the cardinal sin of roster construction - not leaving yourself enough flexibility to make changes when needed.
Sosa is a glorified righty specialist with enough arm strength to give you five mediocre innings as a starter or two mediocre innings as a reliever. He has pitched exceptionally poorly this year and has to be considered the worst reliever in the bullpen right now, but Minaya is simply not going to demote or release him to make room for Wise. Instead Joe Smith's head is squarely on the chopping block, for reasons that have nothing to do with performance. Smith is a righty specialist - just like Sosa - but makes $1.6 million less and can be sent to the minor leagues without being exposed to waivers.
Who do you think is going to be left standing when Wise is finally brought back into the fold?
(A quick diversion: the most inappropriate charge horn in the National League was just sounded over the Mets' PA system - with the team losing 10-4 with one out and a man on first in the bottom of the eighth inning. I've been hearing that goddamn horn since high school and I've never once heard it played for anything other than maximum embarrassment for a conscientious baseball fan.)
Get used to Jorge Sosa, because he's not going anywhere. Joe Smith is the only guy with minor-league options, so I will be stunned if he's not pitching in New Orleans next week. It's nothing more than a numbers game - and it's looking like another loss for the Mets.
Roster Move: Ramon Castro Activated From 15-Day DL
Question: How many teams in baseball have a backup cacher making $2 million a year?
Answer: How the hell should I know? Seriously, go ask some blogger who updates on a daily basis.
How do people do it anyway? I'm so impressed with the bloggers who have something insightful to write on a daily basis. I've hit hard times myself; when work is busy, it's so hard to grab 30 minutes or so just to get something down. With the semester about to end and the little monsters going home to torture Mommy and Daddy, maybe I'll be able to pick up the pace this summer.
Anyway, Destro is back. He's one of those guys who is good in small doses and instantly makes the bench better. I'd like to see a pretty set platoon between Castro and Schneider, but the impression seems to be that Schneider is simply the starter and Castro will get a game or two a week to stay sharp. Raul Casanova will now be donning the tools of ignorance for the Zephyrs, where he'll split time with the recently departed Gus Molina. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Nelson Figueroa
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Matt Wise-DL
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Answer: How the hell should I know? Seriously, go ask some blogger who updates on a daily basis.
How do people do it anyway? I'm so impressed with the bloggers who have something insightful to write on a daily basis. I've hit hard times myself; when work is busy, it's so hard to grab 30 minutes or so just to get something down. With the semester about to end and the little monsters going home to torture Mommy and Daddy, maybe I'll be able to pick up the pace this summer.
Anyway, Destro is back. He's one of those guys who is good in small doses and instantly makes the bench better. I'd like to see a pretty set platoon between Castro and Schneider, but the impression seems to be that Schneider is simply the starter and Castro will get a game or two a week to stay sharp. Raul Casanova will now be donning the tools of ignorance for the Zephyrs, where he'll split time with the recently departed Gus Molina. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Nelson Figueroa
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Matt Wise-DL
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Ramon Castro
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Don't Blame It on Billy
Barry Zito was all the rage in 2006 – so many Mets fans were willing to plunder the farm system to trade for him mid-season and then willing to back up the Brinks truck to sign him in the off-season. The San Francisco Giants “won” that sweepstakes, committing seven years and $126 million to the former Oakland lefty.
Since then, Zito has … um, struggled. As of this writing he is 0-7 with a 6.95 ERA and a 1.871 WHIP in 2008. There have been a number of theories postulated about the root causes of Zito’s sudden demise, but one writer has found an unusual culprit – Oakand GM Billy Beane.
The author gently blames Beane for some of Zito's woes, noting that Oakland starters are generally ridden harder because they rarely re-sign with the team once they reach free agency. Zito, according to the author, averaged 106 pitches a game throughout his tenure with the Athletics. Always among the league leaders in batters faced, the author speculates that this may have something to do with the mysterious drop in Zito's velocity.
Frankly, I don’t think Zito was overused in the slightest. During his last three years with the Athletics, he never made more than 35 starts in a single season, never pitched more than 230 innings in one year and never threw more than 128 pitches in a game. Yes, Zito threw a lot of pitches, but that’s because he was inefficient. The number of walks were too high – from 81 in 2004 to 99 in 2006 – and faced over 900 batters in all three seasons.
What’s more, pitchers like Zito should be “overused” by their teams. It’s one of the few advantages small-market teams have – if they know they have no chance of re-signing a player when he hits free agency, why on earth wouldn’t you try to wring every last inning out of him? I don’t quite understand what obligation the Athletics had to monitor Barry Zito’s pitch count once it became abundantly clear he wouldn’t be wearing their uniform much longer.
Let’s also not forget something very important – one of the reasons Barry Zito got as much money as he did in free agency is because he was so durable (at least by today’s standards). Zito never made less than 34 starts or pitched less than 213 innings throughout his six full seasons in Oakland. What was that worth on the open market? An additional 10 million over seven years? Maybe 20 million?
Since then, Zito has … um, struggled. As of this writing he is 0-7 with a 6.95 ERA and a 1.871 WHIP in 2008. There have been a number of theories postulated about the root causes of Zito’s sudden demise, but one writer has found an unusual culprit – Oakand GM Billy Beane.
The author gently blames Beane for some of Zito's woes, noting that Oakland starters are generally ridden harder because they rarely re-sign with the team once they reach free agency. Zito, according to the author, averaged 106 pitches a game throughout his tenure with the Athletics. Always among the league leaders in batters faced, the author speculates that this may have something to do with the mysterious drop in Zito's velocity.
Frankly, I don’t think Zito was overused in the slightest. During his last three years with the Athletics, he never made more than 35 starts in a single season, never pitched more than 230 innings in one year and never threw more than 128 pitches in a game. Yes, Zito threw a lot of pitches, but that’s because he was inefficient. The number of walks were too high – from 81 in 2004 to 99 in 2006 – and faced over 900 batters in all three seasons.
What’s more, pitchers like Zito should be “overused” by their teams. It’s one of the few advantages small-market teams have – if they know they have no chance of re-signing a player when he hits free agency, why on earth wouldn’t you try to wring every last inning out of him? I don’t quite understand what obligation the Athletics had to monitor Barry Zito’s pitch count once it became abundantly clear he wouldn’t be wearing their uniform much longer.
Let’s also not forget something very important – one of the reasons Barry Zito got as much money as he did in free agency is because he was so durable (at least by today’s standards). Zito never made less than 34 starts or pitched less than 213 innings throughout his six full seasons in Oakland. What was that worth on the open market? An additional 10 million over seven years? Maybe 20 million?
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Would You Have Done It? - Starting Pitchers
This week's Flushing University column is finally up and I already have an idea for next week's effort. If the St. Louis Cardinals cooperate, it will involve my first interview in a very long time. OK, enough teasing - let's play ...
WOULD YOU HAVE DONE ITTTTT?!!!
Yes, Would You Have Done It?, where we look at the starting pitchers on the Mets' 25-man roster and pass judgment on whether or not adding them to the team was a good idea.
To play the game, you have to pretend that you're the general manager of the New York Mets. We're going to take you back in the time machine to a series of dates in the past 10 years. You'll have a choice - should you acquire the player or players available to you, or should you pass in search of a better offer. Ready? Let's begin!
December 12, 2004: Well, it's just money, right? And this is Pedro Martinez, the best pitcher of his generation. Sure, he's coming off his worst season since 1996, but that just means that he wasn't super-human. Besides, put him back in the National League, and he might look like Pedro circa 2000 again. But what about the rumors that his labrum is shot? You've heard whispers that Jayson Stark says it might be 90 percent torn. No one comes back from labrum surgery - maybe that's why no one else is offering more than three guaranteed years. Well, you can have him anyway - as long as you're willing to give the immensely proud Pedro a fourth year. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Yup. That torn labrum rumor had been floating around since 2001 and it didn't seem to affect Pedro. In fact, it's easy to forget that he was dominant again in 2005 and unhittable for the first part of 2006 before his body broke down. Yes, the labrum finally became a problem and I still don't think Pedro will ever be the same again. But it was just money and you can add me to the list of people that the intangible value of adding a marquee pitcher like Pedro to a moribound Mets franchise signaled a chance in direction that was sorely needed.
June 7, 2005: You chose Philip Humber in the first round of the amateur draft last season and although the Devil Rays just grabbed his former Wade Townsend ahead of you this year, there's another college starter in your sites. Mike Pelfrey was a superstar at Wichita State and probably should've gone higher, but Scott Boras is his agent and there are signability concerns. Local product Craig Hansen is still on the board; he's so good that he could probably step off the mound at Jack Kaiser Field and step on the mound at Shea without missing a beat. But he's a reliever and doesn't have quite the upside of a starter like Pelfrey. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Yes. Hansen just got back to the bigs and still has a future ahead of him, but even his former Redmen connections weren't enough to pass on Pelfrey. Signability concerns are for loser franchises - good teams lock up the best talent, period. Pelfrey was the best player still on the board and the Mets were right to take him. I'm still hoping it works out.
January 21, 2006: You've added Carlos Delgado and aul Lo Duca to fortify your lineup and most of your starting rotations is set. Pedro and Glavine at the top of the rotation, Kris Benson as your #3 and Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano round things out. It's not great, especially as you get past the 1-2 punch, but it's good enough to compete for a division title.
Then this happens.
Well, we can't have that in Flushing! This Benson guy, he's gotta go. Problem is, with two years and 15.5 million guaranteed left on his contract, Benson isn't exactly a bargain. So hear come the Orioles, offering super-arm Jorge Julio and little-known prospect John Maine. Julio has had some success, but there's whispers he's of the "10-cent head" variety. Maine put up good numbers in the low minors, but his late season cup of coffee ended with a few thrashings and the Orioles don't seem too high on him. It ain't much, but it frees up seven million dollars - and since Citi Field is still not quite on the horizon, the Mets can't be spending like drunk sailors all the time. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Actually, no. I'm glad that Minaya pulled the trigger, because I'm a John Maine superfan now, but I thought that Jorge Julio wasn't much of an addition. Maine was being undervalued, but I'd be lying if I said that I thought he was worth trading Kris Benson, especially after a decent 2005 season. I can't imagine a scenario where Baltimore would've traded BJ Ryan, of course, but I might have accepted Steve Kline instead of Julio. In the end, it all worked out though - score one for Omar!
July 31, 2006: Your Mets are in first place and cruising toward a division title. But a freak taxi accident in Miami involves one of your top relievers and all of a sudden, Duaner Sanchez is out for the season. You're trolling around the league, hoping a bottom feeder will help you replace the valuable bullpen arm you just lost. And as usual, there are the Pirates, ready to cut loose a veteran in exchange for a player to help them in a tomorrow that never comes.
The Pirates have Roberto Hernandez, a familiar face from just last season, but they're asking for your right fielder Xavier Nady. Now that isn't going to happen, but Pittsburgh has something they think will sweeten the deal - failed starter Oliver Perez. Ollie has been abysmal for the last two seasons, but you watched him dominate the league as a 22-year-old in 2004 and can't help but wonder - can he do it again? Oh, and if you trade Nady, hotshot rookie Lastings Milledge will get the majority of starts in RF; is he ready to handle the bigs? So there it is - replace Sanchez with Hernandez at the expense of Nady. Maybe Perez will become something big again and maybe Milledge will hit like Gregg Jeffries, circa 1988. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Tough call, but yes. The Mets didn't need Hernandez, regardless of Sanchez's injury, but Perez was still just 24 and worth the risk. Nady was just a good fourth outfielder; he wasn't a star in waiting people made him out to be. Milledge and Chavez would've made a good enough platoon, even after Minaya added Shawn Green a month later. It was a roll of a dice, but even the worst-case scenario (Hernandez and Perez flop) was no big deal for the Mets because Nady wasn't going to make them sorry.
January 29, 2008: You've danced all winter with rookie GM Bill Smith. He has a responsibility to get the best package of prospects possible for the Twins, and you have a fan base clamoring for you to get his top starter. Smith passes a piece of paper across the table and it contains four names: Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. If you shake his hand, you can acquire Johan Santana (provided you offer him 137 million for the next six seasons, of course.) Would You Have Done It?
My answer: It's a no-brainer. Lock up Santana, add the best pitcher in baseball and turn him loose on the National League. What Met GM could've possibly said no?
WOULD YOU HAVE DONE ITTTTT?!!!
Yes, Would You Have Done It?, where we look at the starting pitchers on the Mets' 25-man roster and pass judgment on whether or not adding them to the team was a good idea.
To play the game, you have to pretend that you're the general manager of the New York Mets. We're going to take you back in the time machine to a series of dates in the past 10 years. You'll have a choice - should you acquire the player or players available to you, or should you pass in search of a better offer. Ready? Let's begin!
December 12, 2004: Well, it's just money, right? And this is Pedro Martinez, the best pitcher of his generation. Sure, he's coming off his worst season since 1996, but that just means that he wasn't super-human. Besides, put him back in the National League, and he might look like Pedro circa 2000 again. But what about the rumors that his labrum is shot? You've heard whispers that Jayson Stark says it might be 90 percent torn. No one comes back from labrum surgery - maybe that's why no one else is offering more than three guaranteed years. Well, you can have him anyway - as long as you're willing to give the immensely proud Pedro a fourth year. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Yup. That torn labrum rumor had been floating around since 2001 and it didn't seem to affect Pedro. In fact, it's easy to forget that he was dominant again in 2005 and unhittable for the first part of 2006 before his body broke down. Yes, the labrum finally became a problem and I still don't think Pedro will ever be the same again. But it was just money and you can add me to the list of people that the intangible value of adding a marquee pitcher like Pedro to a moribound Mets franchise signaled a chance in direction that was sorely needed.
June 7, 2005: You chose Philip Humber in the first round of the amateur draft last season and although the Devil Rays just grabbed his former Wade Townsend ahead of you this year, there's another college starter in your sites. Mike Pelfrey was a superstar at Wichita State and probably should've gone higher, but Scott Boras is his agent and there are signability concerns. Local product Craig Hansen is still on the board; he's so good that he could probably step off the mound at Jack Kaiser Field and step on the mound at Shea without missing a beat. But he's a reliever and doesn't have quite the upside of a starter like Pelfrey. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Yes. Hansen just got back to the bigs and still has a future ahead of him, but even his former Redmen connections weren't enough to pass on Pelfrey. Signability concerns are for loser franchises - good teams lock up the best talent, period. Pelfrey was the best player still on the board and the Mets were right to take him. I'm still hoping it works out.
January 21, 2006: You've added Carlos Delgado and aul Lo Duca to fortify your lineup and most of your starting rotations is set. Pedro and Glavine at the top of the rotation, Kris Benson as your #3 and Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano round things out. It's not great, especially as you get past the 1-2 punch, but it's good enough to compete for a division title.
Then this happens.
Well, we can't have that in Flushing! This Benson guy, he's gotta go. Problem is, with two years and 15.5 million guaranteed left on his contract, Benson isn't exactly a bargain. So hear come the Orioles, offering super-arm Jorge Julio and little-known prospect John Maine. Julio has had some success, but there's whispers he's of the "10-cent head" variety. Maine put up good numbers in the low minors, but his late season cup of coffee ended with a few thrashings and the Orioles don't seem too high on him. It ain't much, but it frees up seven million dollars - and since Citi Field is still not quite on the horizon, the Mets can't be spending like drunk sailors all the time. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Actually, no. I'm glad that Minaya pulled the trigger, because I'm a John Maine superfan now, but I thought that Jorge Julio wasn't much of an addition. Maine was being undervalued, but I'd be lying if I said that I thought he was worth trading Kris Benson, especially after a decent 2005 season. I can't imagine a scenario where Baltimore would've traded BJ Ryan, of course, but I might have accepted Steve Kline instead of Julio. In the end, it all worked out though - score one for Omar!
July 31, 2006: Your Mets are in first place and cruising toward a division title. But a freak taxi accident in Miami involves one of your top relievers and all of a sudden, Duaner Sanchez is out for the season. You're trolling around the league, hoping a bottom feeder will help you replace the valuable bullpen arm you just lost. And as usual, there are the Pirates, ready to cut loose a veteran in exchange for a player to help them in a tomorrow that never comes.
The Pirates have Roberto Hernandez, a familiar face from just last season, but they're asking for your right fielder Xavier Nady. Now that isn't going to happen, but Pittsburgh has something they think will sweeten the deal - failed starter Oliver Perez. Ollie has been abysmal for the last two seasons, but you watched him dominate the league as a 22-year-old in 2004 and can't help but wonder - can he do it again? Oh, and if you trade Nady, hotshot rookie Lastings Milledge will get the majority of starts in RF; is he ready to handle the bigs? So there it is - replace Sanchez with Hernandez at the expense of Nady. Maybe Perez will become something big again and maybe Milledge will hit like Gregg Jeffries, circa 1988. Would You Have Done It?
My answer: Tough call, but yes. The Mets didn't need Hernandez, regardless of Sanchez's injury, but Perez was still just 24 and worth the risk. Nady was just a good fourth outfielder; he wasn't a star in waiting people made him out to be. Milledge and Chavez would've made a good enough platoon, even after Minaya added Shawn Green a month later. It was a roll of a dice, but even the worst-case scenario (Hernandez and Perez flop) was no big deal for the Mets because Nady wasn't going to make them sorry.
January 29, 2008: You've danced all winter with rookie GM Bill Smith. He has a responsibility to get the best package of prospects possible for the Twins, and you have a fan base clamoring for you to get his top starter. Smith passes a piece of paper across the table and it contains four names: Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. If you shake his hand, you can acquire Johan Santana (provided you offer him 137 million for the next six seasons, of course.) Would You Have Done It?
My answer: It's a no-brainer. Lock up Santana, add the best pitcher in baseball and turn him loose on the National League. What Met GM could've possibly said no?
Something's Gotta Give (Flushing University)
Mike Pelfrey still hasn't developed into a reliable major league starter. Is it time for the Mets to begin creatively re-defining his future? Read more here ...
Monday, May 5, 2008
Just Practicing ...
(If I ever give up on the Mets, I'm going to become a Dodgers fan. Would I ever be able to maintain the blog if I did?)
Interesting to see Joe Torre's lineup card tonight, featuring Juan Pierre as his #2 hitter. The little guy is on a hot streak as of late and has actually raised his OPS+ over the 100 mark, a mark he's only topped once over an entire season in his nine-year career. Torre would be still be better served using Pierre as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner, while starting Andre Ethier in left field. (Matt Kemp seems to have locked down right field, a happy development for Dodgers fans.) But since Pierre is hot, it's not so bad seeing him that high in the lineup.
The problem is that Pierre's only real skill is speed - he's a good contact hitter who is highly unlikely to hit anything other than a single. Defensively, Pierre still covers ground and rarely makes mistakes, but has an arm like a wet noodle. Like Luis Castillo on the New York Mets, he's better served hitting out of the eighth spot in the lineup, where his speed and his usual .330 OBP could be more artfully deployed to get past the pitcher.
Pierre has been much maligned after signing a $5 year, $44 million deal with the Dodgers in 2007. It's a horrible deal for a player who is incredibly overrated, of course, but the money is already going to be spent. Torre shouldn't be blocking Ethier in the first place, but he has a responsibility to minimize Pierre's negative effect on the offense by batting him lower in the lineup - regardless of how much Frank McCourt is paying him.
Interesting to see Joe Torre's lineup card tonight, featuring Juan Pierre as his #2 hitter. The little guy is on a hot streak as of late and has actually raised his OPS+ over the 100 mark, a mark he's only topped once over an entire season in his nine-year career. Torre would be still be better served using Pierre as a fourth outfielder/pinch runner, while starting Andre Ethier in left field. (Matt Kemp seems to have locked down right field, a happy development for Dodgers fans.) But since Pierre is hot, it's not so bad seeing him that high in the lineup.
The problem is that Pierre's only real skill is speed - he's a good contact hitter who is highly unlikely to hit anything other than a single. Defensively, Pierre still covers ground and rarely makes mistakes, but has an arm like a wet noodle. Like Luis Castillo on the New York Mets, he's better served hitting out of the eighth spot in the lineup, where his speed and his usual .330 OBP could be more artfully deployed to get past the pitcher.
Pierre has been much maligned after signing a $5 year, $44 million deal with the Dodgers in 2007. It's a horrible deal for a player who is incredibly overrated, of course, but the money is already going to be spent. Torre shouldn't be blocking Ethier in the first place, but he has a responsibility to minimize Pierre's negative effect on the offense by batting him lower in the lineup - regardless of how much Frank McCourt is paying him.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Link Review: Mets Grrl
The blog roll is starting to fill up and Mets Grrl is another worthy inclusion. She's been to a lot more games than I have this season, she knows how to keep score and she linked this site even though she's very clear about her rules for link exchanges. Since I didn't write to her (although I have to admit I have been doing this with some other Met blogs I like) and she still linked me, I'll consider it an honor.
Personally, I think we all get a little thrill about seeing our name in print (why else would we do this?) and I've never known a person who didn't appreciate recognition for their abilities or their accomplishments. It's why I write to other bloggers who haven't yet linked me and why I like to write a little bit about the sites I link. And I genuinely like Mets Grrl's site; it combines analysis, humor and pictures well and has a much more professional looking layout than I have.
By the way, I hope my readers know that they should be clicking on my links every once in a while to read what some other people have to say. There's so much good stuff out there and so many intelligent points of view - take advantage of what's linked to the right.
Personally, I think we all get a little thrill about seeing our name in print (why else would we do this?) and I've never known a person who didn't appreciate recognition for their abilities or their accomplishments. It's why I write to other bloggers who haven't yet linked me and why I like to write a little bit about the sites I link. And I genuinely like Mets Grrl's site; it combines analysis, humor and pictures well and has a much more professional looking layout than I have.
By the way, I hope my readers know that they should be clicking on my links every once in a while to read what some other people have to say. There's so much good stuff out there and so many intelligent points of view - take advantage of what's linked to the right.
Moving Past 100 Pitches?
I thought this deserved a brief mention: the Springfield Cardinals are increasing the pitch-count limits for their starting rotation, effective immediately. Apparently the hurlers for the Cardinals' AA affiliate will have more rope, with a max workload of about 120 pitches. From the article:
Said St. Louis pitching coordinator Dyar Miller, one of the architects behind the ramped-up rule: "I'd like to see more competition, to be truthful about it.
In the big leagues," Miller added, "if you keep getting them out, they'll leave you in there. You pitch until you run into trouble."
That's not actually true, of course. Today's managers pull their starters after seven shutout innings and only two hits if their pitch count has gone over that mythical 100 number. But fair play to the Cardinals for trying this out. Someone in the organization - presumably Miller - must've realized that the 100-pitch limit may not be the final word on protecting young pitcher's arms.
Is this the first shot in the revolution against the oppressive tyranny of the 100-pitch limit? I certainly hope so.
Said St. Louis pitching coordinator Dyar Miller, one of the architects behind the ramped-up rule: "I'd like to see more competition, to be truthful about it.
In the big leagues," Miller added, "if you keep getting them out, they'll leave you in there. You pitch until you run into trouble."
That's not actually true, of course. Today's managers pull their starters after seven shutout innings and only two hits if their pitch count has gone over that mythical 100 number. But fair play to the Cardinals for trying this out. Someone in the organization - presumably Miller - must've realized that the 100-pitch limit may not be the final word on protecting young pitcher's arms.
Is this the first shot in the revolution against the oppressive tyranny of the 100-pitch limit? I certainly hope so.
Link Review: The Musings and Prophecies of Metstradamus
Not only have I been deficient with actual content this week, but I also haven't done a good job of supporting my fellow bloggers. Metstradamus and I are colleagues over at Flushing University and his blog has been sending a lot of traffic to my page (God bless Sitemeter!)
First of all, the man is a sharp cookie. When you get the Friday slot on FU's weekly roll of columnists, your article gets to stay up on the front page through the weekend. The good news is that he's a solid writer with some nice insights, so weekend visitors are getting good stuff right off the bat. It's more of the same on Metstradamus, with a lot of humor balancing intelligent analysis. The links section is incredible (and not just because I'm now on it!) and links to fan pages for just about every team in the league,
The blog has a lot of fun stuff in addition to regular Mets content; the Hate List and Critics are always interesting. (What did Mike Bibby ever do to you, John?) Plus the man has a WhatifSports ad on his page; with my luck he's probably been thrashing my Pepperdine Hoops Dynasty team for a few seasons now.
First of all, the man is a sharp cookie. When you get the Friday slot on FU's weekly roll of columnists, your article gets to stay up on the front page through the weekend. The good news is that he's a solid writer with some nice insights, so weekend visitors are getting good stuff right off the bat. It's more of the same on Metstradamus, with a lot of humor balancing intelligent analysis. The links section is incredible (and not just because I'm now on it!) and links to fan pages for just about every team in the league,
The blog has a lot of fun stuff in addition to regular Mets content; the Hate List and Critics are always interesting. (What did Mike Bibby ever do to you, John?) Plus the man has a WhatifSports ad on his page; with my luck he's probably been thrashing my Pepperdine Hoops Dynasty team for a few seasons now.
Roster Move: Moises Alou activated from DL
First of all, I apologize for the lack of content this week. Things are very busy at work - the end of the academic year always brings about some interesting behavior and my boss has officially left for Texas, so I'm picking up the slack. It may be a little slow for the next two weeks, but once finals are done I'll get back into the groove. Just an extra little bump: I got picked up at BTF for the second week in a row. I might have a fan in Repoz, who has been kind enough to link me twice - if you read this, drop a line in the comments section!
Anyway, Moises is back, for as long as his brittle body can stay together. The lineup should see a huge boost; the old man can still rake and it pushes Carlos Delgado further down in the lineup. I loved the Mets' lineup last night - Church second, Alou fifth and Castillo eighth is perfect. Like I wrote earlier in the week, Castillo as an eighth hitter can make him a very important and effective part of the lineup. Church strikes out a bit, but if he's going to hit like this all season it's worth it to keep getting him at-bats. Why Willie pitched Sanchez in the ninth instead of letting Feliciano finish the game with a five-run lead is just beyond me.
Gus Molina was sent back to New Orleans to make room for Alou. Sorry, Tim. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Nelson Figueroa
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Matt Wise-DL
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
Anyway, Moises is back, for as long as his brittle body can stay together. The lineup should see a huge boost; the old man can still rake and it pushes Carlos Delgado further down in the lineup. I loved the Mets' lineup last night - Church second, Alou fifth and Castillo eighth is perfect. Like I wrote earlier in the week, Castillo as an eighth hitter can make him a very important and effective part of the lineup. Church strikes out a bit, but if he's going to hit like this all season it's worth it to keep getting him at-bats. Why Willie pitched Sanchez in the ninth instead of letting Feliciano finish the game with a five-run lead is just beyond me.
Gus Molina was sent back to New Orleans to make room for Alou. Sorry, Tim. Let's take a look at the active roster now:
STARTING PITCHERS
Johan Santana
Oliver Perez
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
Nelson Figueroa
Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez-DL
Pedro Martinez-DL
RELIEF PITCHERS
Billy Wagner (closer)
Duaner Sanchez
Pedro Feliciano
Aaron Heilman
Scott Schoenweis
Jorge Sosa
Joe Smith
Matt Wise-DL
CATCHERS
Brian Schneider
Raul Casanova
Ramon Castro-DL
INFIELDERS
Carlos Delgado
Luis Castillo
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Damion Easley
OUTFIELDERS
Moises Alou
Carlos Beltran
Ryan Church
Marlon Anderson
Endy Chavez
Angel Pagan
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